Prophecy Accuracy Analysis - Database 'AdventureWorks on WIN-3HEG2QQ3A0U'

Total Quantity

Statistical forecasts based on history to Jun 2020-21. Best algorithm based on test period range of 6 periods.

11 October 2021

Specialty Bike Shop(France) - Prepared in Jul - Period of sale: Aug
Forecast Actual Variance Percent Error Stats Pct Error Best Algorithm Human vs. Statistics
All-Purpose Bike Stand (ST-1401) 106 104 2

1.9%

18.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 16.5 %pts
AWC Logo Cap (CA-1098) 125 132 -7

-5.3%

-25.3%

HoltWinters Better by 20.0 %pts
Bike Wash - Dissolver (CL-9009) 11 12 -1

-8.3%

-6.2%

Regression Worse by 2.1 %pts
Cable Lock (LO-C100) 17 19 -2

-10.5%

0.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 9.8 %pts
Chain (CH-0234) 2 2 0

0.0%

-50.0%

Regression Better by 50.0 %pts
Classic Vest, L (VE-C304-L) 16 19 -3

-15.8%

-31.8%

Regression Better by 16.0 %pts
Classic Vest, M (VE-C304-M) 16 17 -1

-5.9%

-2.1%

HoltWinters Worse by 3.8 %pts
Classic Vest, S (VE-C304-S) 4 4 0

0.0%

16.3%

HoltWinters Better by 16.3 %pts
Fender Set - Mountain (FE-6654) 3 3 0

0.0%

7.1%

HoltWinters Better by 7.1 %pts
Front Brakes (FB-9873) 8 8 0

0.0%

6.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 6.0 %pts
Front Derailleur (FD-2342) 17 18 -1

-5.6%

-9.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 3.6 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, L (GL-F110-L) 35 32 3

9.4%

6.7%

Regression Worse by 2.7 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, S (GL-F110-S) 3 3 0

0.0%

23.0%

Regression Better by 23.0 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, L (GL-H102-L) 8 6 2

33.3%

23.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 9.5 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, M (GL-H102-M) 260 227 33

14.5%

-39.5%

HoltWinters Better by 25.0 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, S (GL-H102-S) 12 11 1

9.1%

-4.7%

HoltWinters Worse by 4.4 %pts
Headlights - Dual-Beam (LT-H902) 26 20 6

30.0%

19.1%

Regression Worse by 10.9 %pts
Headlights - Weatherproof (LT-H903) 4 4 0

0.0%

-33.8%

Exponential Better by 33.8 %pts
Hitch Rack - 4-Bike (RA-H123) 4 4 0

0.0%

-36.8%

Regression Better by 36.8 %pts
HL Bottom Bracket (BB-9108) 2 2 0

0.0%

-50.0%

Regression Better by 50.0 %pts
HL Crankset (CS-9183) 1 1 0

0.0%

-100.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 100.0 %pts
HL Fork (FK-9939) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
HL Headset (HS-3479) 4 4 0

0.0%

5.9%

HoltWinters Better by 5.9 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M94B-38) 5 5 0

0.0%

-31.7%

HoltWinters Better by 31.7 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M94B-42) 7 6 1

16.7%

20.2%

HoltWinters Better by 3.6 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M94B-44) 9 9 0

0.0%

-12.8%

HoltWinters Better by 12.8 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 46 (FR-M94B-46) 4 4 0

0.0%

37.1%

HoltWinters Better by 37.1 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M94B-48) 14 18 -4

-22.2%

-17.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 4.9 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 38 (FR-M94S-38) 8 8 0

0.0%

-18.2%

Regression Better by 18.2 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M94S-42) 3 3 0

0.0%

-0.6%

HoltWinters Better by 0.6 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M94S-44) 2 2 0

0.0%

-46.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 46.9 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 46 (FR-M94S-46) 1 1 0

0.0%

16.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 16.7 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M94S-52) 4 4 0

0.0%

-11.1%

Exponential Better by 11.1 %pts
HL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M928) 1 1 0

0.0%

128.8%

HoltWinters Better by 128.8 %pts
HL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M918) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
HL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M928) 11 8 3

37.5%

72.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 34.8 %pts
HL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M940) 9 8 1

12.5%

-18.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 5.9 %pts
HL Mountain Tire (TI-M823) 13 14 -1

-7.1%

-28.9%

Regression Better by 21.8 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R92B-44) 20 20 0

0.0%

-3.4%

HoltWinters Better by 3.4 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R92B-48) 20 18 2

11.1%

17.4%

HoltWinters Better by 6.3 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R92B-52) 221 165 56

33.9%

-11.4%

HoltWinters Worse by 22.5 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R92B-58) 17 17 0

0.0%

-25.1%

Exponential Better by 25.1 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R92B-62) 3 3 0

0.0%

-48.0%

Exponential Better by 48.0 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R92R-44) 66 68 -2

-2.9%

-9.8%

HoltWinters Better by 6.9 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R92R-48) 4 4 0

0.0%

-1.4%

HoltWinters Better by 1.4 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R92R-52) 1 1 0

0.0%

12.6%

HoltWinters Better by 12.6 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 56 (FR-R92R-56) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
HL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R92R-58) 12 11 1

9.1%

13.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 4.1 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R92R-62) 203 197 6

3.0%

-41.0%

HoltWinters Better by 37.9 %pts
HL Road Front Wheel (FW-R820) 3 3 0

0.0%

28.9%

HoltWinters Better by 28.9 %pts
HL Road Handlebars (HB-R956) 3 3 0

0.0%

-1.0%

Exponential Better by 1.0 %pts
HL Road Pedal (PD-R853) 3 3 0

0.0%

9.9%

Regression Better by 9.9 %pts
HL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R820) 4 4 0

0.0%

12.4%

Regression Better by 12.4 %pts
HL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R995) 15 11 4

36.4%

36.9%

Regression Better by 0.5 %pts
HL Road Tire (TI-R982) 4 4 0

0.0%

19.0%

Exponential Better by 19.0 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 46 (FR-T98U-46) 4 4 0

0.0%

-28.2%

Regression Better by 28.2 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T98U-50) 2 2 0

0.0%

54.6%

HoltWinters Better by 54.6 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T98U-54) 2 2 0

0.0%

11.7%

HoltWinters Better by 11.7 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 60 (FR-T98U-60) 15 15 0

0.0%

11.7%

Regression Better by 11.7 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 46 (FR-T98Y-46) 92 86 6

7.0%

29.7%

HoltWinters Better by 22.8 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T98Y-50) 2 2 0

0.0%

6.2%

HoltWinters Better by 6.2 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T98Y-54) 52 50 2

4.0%

5.8%

Regression Better by 1.8 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 60 (FR-T98Y-60) 10 10 0

0.0%

46.1%

HoltWinters Better by 46.1 %pts
HL Touring Handlebars (HB-T928) 2 2 0

0.0%

87.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 87.5 %pts
HL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T924) 2 2 0

0.0%

-8.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 8.6 %pts
Hydration Pack - 70 oz. (HY-1023-70) 2 2 0

0.0%

26.2%

HoltWinters Better by 26.2 %pts
LL Bottom Bracket (BB-7421) 2 2 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
LL Crankset (CS-4759) 17 14 3

21.4%

-30.2%

HoltWinters Better by 8.8 %pts
LL Fork (FK-1639) 16 19 -3

-15.8%

-49.1%

HoltWinters Better by 33.3 %pts
LL Headset (HS-0296) 4 4 0

0.0%

35.7%

Exponential Better by 35.7 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M21B-40) 3 3 0

0.0%

-1.6%

HoltWinters Better by 1.6 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M21B-42) 2 2 0

0.0%

4.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 4.3 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M21B-48) 14 10 4

40.0%

37.5%

Regression Worse by 2.5 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 52 (FR-M21B-52) 44 35 9

25.7%

13.3%

HoltWinters Worse by 12.4 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 40 (FR-M21S-40) 29 31 -2

-6.5%

-3.1%

HoltWinters Worse by 3.3 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M21S-42) 16 12 4

33.3%

26.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 6.6 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M21S-44) 25 22 3

13.6%

9.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 3.8 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M21S-48) 3 3 0

0.0%

84.9%

Regression Better by 84.9 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 52 (FR-M21S-52) 24 24 0

0.0%

25.7%

HoltWinters Better by 25.7 %pts
LL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M423) 4 4 0

0.0%

-4.4%

HoltWinters Better by 4.4 %pts
LL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M243) 3 3 0

0.0%

-28.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 28.2 %pts
LL Mountain Pedal (PD-M282) 11 12 -1

-8.3%

25.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 16.7 %pts
LL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M423) 8 9 -1

-11.1%

-49.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 38.4 %pts
LL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M236) 11 6 5

83.3%

84.7%

HoltWinters Better by 1.4 %pts
LL Mountain Tire (TI-M267) 4 4 0

0.0%

-23.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 23.3 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R38B-48) 9 8 1

12.5%

7.4%

Regression Worse by 5.1 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R38B-52) 11 11 0

0.0%

1.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 1.6 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R38B-58) 3 3 0

0.0%

2.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 2.9 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 60 (FR-R38B-60) 11 11 0

0.0%

-1.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 1.7 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R38B-62) 2 2 0

0.0%

-23.8%

Regression Better by 23.8 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R38R-44) 38 38 0

0.0%

-2.8%

Regression Better by 2.8 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R38R-48) 1 1 0

0.0%

23.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 23.1 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R38R-52) 16 18 -2

-11.1%

-12.6%

Exponential Better by 1.5 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R38R-58) 32 23 9

39.1%

39.5%

HoltWinters Better by 0.4 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R38R-60) 57 54 3

5.6%

-8.1%

Regression Better by 2.6 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R38R-62) 13 14 -1

-7.1%

-37.7%

HoltWinters Better by 30.6 %pts
LL Road Front Wheel (FW-R623) 12 12 0

0.0%

2.3%

HoltWinters Better by 2.3 %pts
LL Road Handlebars (HB-R504) 3 3 0

0.0%

-2.9%

HoltWinters Better by 2.9 %pts
LL Road Pedal (PD-R347) 2 2 0

0.0%

21.4%

Regression Better by 21.4 %pts
LL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R623) 7 7 0

0.0%

-18.6%

HoltWinters Better by 18.6 %pts
LL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R581) 53 54 -1

-1.9%

-14.8%

HoltWinters Better by 13.0 %pts
LL Road Tire (TI-R092) 2 2 0

0.0%

12.4%

HoltWinters Better by 12.4 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 44 (FR-T67U-44) 13 14 -1

-7.1%

-10.0%

HoltWinters Better by 2.8 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T67U-50) 3 3 0

0.0%

-2.5%

Exponential Better by 2.5 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T67U-54) 2 2 0

0.0%

-18.0%

Regression Better by 18.0 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 58 (FR-T67U-58) 7 5 2

40.0%

45.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 5.7 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 62 (FR-T67U-62) 1 1 0

0.0%

-4.0%

HoltWinters Better by 4.0 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 44 (FR-T67Y-44) 2 2 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T67Y-50) 5 5 0

0.0%

6.8%

Exponential Better by 6.8 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T67Y-54) 166 166 0

0.0%

-1.8%

HoltWinters Better by 1.8 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 58 (FR-T67Y-58) 14 14 0

0.0%

-9.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 9.3 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 62 (FR-T67Y-62) 2 2 0

0.0%

-23.9%

Exponential Better by 23.9 %pts
LL Touring Handlebars (HB-T721) 1 1 0

0.0%

100.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 100.0 %pts
LL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T312) 11 11 0

0.0%

25.0%

Regression Better by 25.0 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, L (LJ-0192-L) 14 14 0

0.0%

11.3%

Exponential Better by 11.3 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, M (LJ-0192-M) 169 169 0

0.0%

-10.9%

HoltWinters Better by 10.9 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, S (LJ-0192-S) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, XL (LJ-0192-X) 7 7 0

0.0%

8.7%

HoltWinters Better by 8.7 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, L (SB-M891-L) 2 2 0

0.0%

6.3%

HoltWinters Better by 6.3 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, M (SB-M891-M) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Men's Bib-Shorts, S (SB-M891-S) 175 113 62

54.9%

28.2%

HoltWinters Worse by 26.7 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, L (SH-M897-L) 14 14 0

0.0%

-20.0%

Regression Better by 20.0 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, M (SH-M897-M) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Men's Sports Shorts, S (SH-M897-S) 24 26 -2

-7.7%

-3.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 4.0 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, XL (SH-M897-X) 17 16 1

6.3%

-12.8%

Regression Better by 6.6 %pts
Minipump (PU-0452) 22 20 2

10.0%

17.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 7.8 %pts
ML Bottom Bracket (BB-8107) 139 158 -19

-12.0%

-27.4%

Exponential Better by 15.4 %pts
ML Crankset (CS-6583) 11 10 1

10.0%

27.0%

Exponential Better by 17.0 %pts
ML Fork (FK-5136) 7 8 -1

-12.5%

-4.3%

HoltWinters Worse by 8.2 %pts
ML Headset (HS-2451) 9 9 0

0.0%

-6.5%

Regression Better by 6.5 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M63B-38) 3 3 0

0.0%

-30.7%

HoltWinters Better by 30.7 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M63B-40) 9 6 3

50.0%

12.2%

HoltWinters Worse by 37.8 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M63B-44) 1 1 0

0.0%

115.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 115.4 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M63B-48) 36 33 3

9.1%

13.3%

HoltWinters Better by 4.2 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 38 (FR-M63S-38) 10 9 1

11.1%

93.4%

HoltWinters Better by 82.3 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 40 (FR-M63S-40) 11 11 0

0.0%

6.6%

HoltWinters Better by 6.6 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 42 (FR-M63S-42) 2 2 0

0.0%

9.2%

HoltWinters Better by 9.2 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 46 (FR-M63S-46) 87 70 17

24.3%

-0.1%

Exponential Worse by 24.2 %pts
ML Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M762) 1 1 0

0.0%

-22.4%

HoltWinters Better by 22.4 %pts
ML Mountain Pedal (PD-M340) 2 2 0

0.0%

-8.2%

HoltWinters Better by 8.2 %pts
ML Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M798) 3 3 0

0.0%

3.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 3.1 %pts
ML Mountain Tire (TI-M602) 172 181 -9

-5.0%

20.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 15.9 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R72R-44) 7 7 0

0.0%

-1.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 1.9 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R72R-48) 54 58 -4

-6.9%

-11.1%

HoltWinters Better by 4.2 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R72R-52) 140 139 1

0.7%

30.2%

HoltWinters Better by 29.5 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R72R-58) 19 20 -1

-5.0%

-20.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 15.1 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 38 (FR-R72Y-38) 2 2 0

0.0%

7.1%

HoltWinters Better by 7.1 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 40 (FR-R72Y-40) 8 8 0

0.0%

2.9%

HoltWinters Better by 2.9 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 42 (FR-R72Y-42) 2 2 0

0.0%

13.9%

HoltWinters Better by 13.9 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 44 (FR-R72Y-44) 138 165 -27

-16.4%

-17.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 1.0 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 48 (FR-R72Y-48) 2 2 0

0.0%

-0.9%

HoltWinters Better by 0.9 %pts
ML Road Front Wheel (FW-R762) 29 27 2

7.4%

-16.2%

Regression Better by 8.8 %pts
ML Road Handlebars (HB-R720) 2 2 0

0.0%

40.9%

HoltWinters Better by 40.9 %pts
ML Road Pedal (PD-R563) 51 53 -2

-3.8%

-13.8%

HoltWinters Better by 10.0 %pts
ML Road Rear Wheel (RW-R762) 1 1 0

0.0%

-2.6%

HoltWinters Better by 2.6 %pts
ML Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R908) 3 3 0

0.0%

-13.9%

Regression Better by 13.9 %pts
ML Road Tire (TI-R628) 9 8 1

12.5%

35.7%

HoltWinters Better by 23.2 %pts
ML Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T762) 1 1 0

0.0%

57.7%

Regression Better by 57.7 %pts
Mountain Bike Socks, M (SO-B909-M) 3 3 0

0.0%

-44.6%

Regression Better by 44.6 %pts
Mountain Bottle Cage (BC-M005) 15 15 0

0.0%

-10.3%

HoltWinters Better by 10.3 %pts
Mountain Pump (PU-M044) 2 2 0

0.0%

-50.0%

Regression Better by 50.0 %pts
Mountain Tire Tube (TT-M928) 8 8 0

0.0%

2.7%

HoltWinters Better by 2.7 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 38 (BK-M82B-38) 17 13 4

30.8%

7.4%

Exponential Worse by 23.3 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 42 (BK-M82B-42) 216 130 86

66.2%

-7.9%

HoltWinters Worse by 58.3 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 44 (BK-M82B-44) 4 4 0

0.0%

-33.2%

HoltWinters Better by 33.2 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 48 (BK-M82B-48) 11 10 1

10.0%

-3.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 6.6 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 38 (BK-M82S-38) 5 5 0

0.0%

-13.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 13.8 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 42 (BK-M82S-42) 2 2 0

0.0%

26.1%

HoltWinters Better by 26.1 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 44 (BK-M82S-44) 4 4 0

0.0%

-39.2%

HoltWinters Better by 39.2 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 48 (BK-M82S-48) 3 3 0

0.0%

-70.0%

HoltWinters Better by 70.0 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 38 (BK-M68B-38) 11 11 0

0.0%

-11.3%

Regression Better by 11.3 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 42 (BK-M68B-42) 2 2 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Mountain-200 Black, 46 (BK-M68B-46) 1 1 0

0.0%

46.1%

Regression Better by 46.1 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 38 (BK-M68S-38) 78 74 4

5.4%

0.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 5.4 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 46 (BK-M68S-46) 10 13 -3

-23.1%

-37.4%

Regression Better by 14.3 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 38 (BK-M47B-38) 9 7 2

28.6%

20.8%

Regression Worse by 7.7 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 40 (BK-M47B-40) 27 26 1

3.8%

13.0%

Regression Better by 9.2 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 44 (BK-M47B-44) 3 3 0

0.0%

7.0%

HoltWinters Better by 7.0 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 48 (BK-M47B-48) 149 149 0

0.0%

-2.6%

Regression Better by 2.6 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 38 (BK-M38S-38) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Mountain-400-W Silver, 40 (BK-M38S-40) 207 236 -29

-12.3%

-10.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 1.5 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 42 (BK-M38S-42) 11 11 0

0.0%

-10.4%

Exponential Better by 10.4 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 46 (BK-M38S-46) 17 12 5

41.7%

35.6%

HoltWinters Worse by 6.1 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 40 (BK-M18B-40) 211 241 -30

-12.4%

-11.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 0.8 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 44 (BK-M18B-44) 48 44 4

9.1%

3.3%

HoltWinters Worse by 5.8 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 48 (BK-M18B-48) 40 39 1

2.6%

-4.2%

HoltWinters Better by 1.6 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 52 (BK-M18B-52) 4 4 0

0.0%

-18.8%

Regression Better by 18.8 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 40 (BK-M18S-40) 4 4 0

0.0%

-4.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 4.8 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 42 (BK-M18S-42) 46 45 1

2.2%

-6.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 4.7 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 44 (BK-M18S-44) 142 103 39

37.9%

8.0%

HoltWinters Worse by 29.9 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 48 (BK-M18S-48) 3 3 0

0.0%

21.4%

HoltWinters Better by 21.4 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 52 (BK-M18S-52) 3 3 0

0.0%

-9.5%

HoltWinters Better by 9.5 %pts
Patch Kit/8 Patches (PK-7098) 114 113 1

0.9%

-0.5%

HoltWinters Worse by 0.4 %pts
Racing Socks, M (SO-R809-M) 3 3 0

0.0%

10.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 10.3 %pts
Rear Brakes (RB-9231) 16 17 -1

-5.9%

22.3%

HoltWinters Better by 16.4 %pts
Rear Derailleur (RD-2308) 56 56 0

0.0%

0.1%

HoltWinters Better by 0.1 %pts
Road Bottle Cage (BC-R205) 2 2 0

0.0%

-2.5%

HoltWinters Better by 2.5 %pts
Road Tire Tube (TT-R982) 11 8 3

37.5%

28.6%

Regression Worse by 8.9 %pts
Road-150 Red, 44 (BK-R93R-44) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Road-150 Red, 48 (BK-R93R-48) 4 4 0

0.0%

-2.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 2.0 %pts
Road-150 Red, 52 (BK-R93R-52) 5 5 0

0.0%

11.6%

HoltWinters Better by 11.6 %pts
Road-150 Red, 56 (BK-R93R-56) 2 2 0

0.0%

32.5%

HoltWinters Better by 32.5 %pts
Road-150 Red, 62 (BK-R93R-62) 5 5 0

0.0%

-22.1%

Regression Better by 22.1 %pts
Road-250 Black, 44 (BK-R89B-44) 113 120 -7

-5.8%

22.7%

HoltWinters Better by 16.9 %pts
Road-250 Black, 48 (BK-R89B-48) 64 53 11

20.8%

19.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 0.9 %pts
Road-250 Black, 52 (BK-R89B-52) 13 14 -1

-7.1%

-34.2%

HoltWinters Better by 27.1 %pts
Road-250 Black, 58 (BK-R89B-58) 2 2 0

0.0%

88.0%

Regression Better by 88.0 %pts
Road-250 Red, 44 (BK-R89R-44) 31 32 -1

-3.1%

-49.5%

HoltWinters Better by 46.4 %pts
Road-250 Red, 48 (BK-R89R-48) 16 16 0

0.0%

-6.1%

HoltWinters Better by 6.1 %pts
Road-250 Red, 52 (BK-R89R-52) 4 4 0

0.0%

-3.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 3.5 %pts
Road-250 Red, 58 (BK-R89R-58) 1 1 0

0.0%

163.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 163.2 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R79Y-40) 15 14 1

7.1%

-3.3%

Exponential Worse by 3.8 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R79Y-42) 4 4 0

0.0%

2.6%

HoltWinters Better by 2.6 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R79Y-44) 2 2 0

0.0%

-43.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 43.3 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R79Y-48) 4 4 0

0.0%

-22.7%

Exponential Better by 22.7 %pts
Road-450 Red, 44 (BK-R68R-44) 1 1 0

0.0%

108.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 108.0 %pts
Road-450 Red, 48 (BK-R68R-48) 18 15 3

20.0%

-20.2%

HoltWinters Better by 0.2 %pts
Road-450 Red, 52 (BK-R68R-52) 5 5 0

0.0%

-6.8%

HoltWinters Better by 6.8 %pts
Road-450 Red, 58 (BK-R68R-58) 22 25 -3

-12.0%

-17.9%

Exponential Better by 5.9 %pts
Road-450 Red, 60 (BK-R68R-60) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Road-550-W Yellow, 38 (BK-R64Y-38) 4 4 0

0.0%

65.1%

HoltWinters Better by 65.1 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R64Y-42) 7 7 0

0.0%

-7.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 7.6 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R64Y-44) 8 7 1

14.3%

-40.5%

HoltWinters Better by 26.2 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R64Y-48) 2 2 0

0.0%

-45.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 45.8 %pts
Road-650 Black, 44 (BK-R50B-44) 2 2 0

0.0%

82.8%

HoltWinters Better by 82.8 %pts
Road-650 Black, 48 (BK-R50B-48) 2 2 0

0.0%

-9.6%

HoltWinters Better by 9.6 %pts
Road-650 Black, 52 (BK-R50B-52) 9 6 3

50.0%

5.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 45.0 %pts
Road-650 Black, 58 (BK-R50B-58) 14 11 3

27.3%

-1.3%

HoltWinters Worse by 26.0 %pts
Road-650 Black, 60 (BK-R50B-60) 2 2 0

0.0%

-1.2%

HoltWinters Better by 1.2 %pts
Road-650 Black, 62 (BK-R50B-62) 8 8 0

0.0%

7.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 7.1 %pts
Road-650 Red, 44 (BK-R50R-44) 3 3 0

0.0%

2.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 2.9 %pts
Road-650 Red, 48 (BK-R50R-48) 1 1 0

0.0%

-9.6%

HoltWinters Better by 9.6 %pts
Road-650 Red, 52 (BK-R50R-52) 27 26 1

3.8%

-12.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 8.9 %pts
Road-650 Red, 58 (BK-R50R-58) 5 5 0

0.0%

-8.3%

HoltWinters Better by 8.3 %pts
Road-650 Red, 60 (BK-R50R-60) 9 9 0

0.0%

4.3%

Regression Better by 4.3 %pts
Road-650 Red, 62 (BK-R50R-62) 224 265 -41

-15.5%

-22.2%

HoltWinters Better by 6.7 %pts
Road-750 Black, 44 (BK-R19B-44) 3 3 0

0.0%

46.4%

HoltWinters Better by 46.4 %pts
Road-750 Black, 48 (BK-R19B-48) 3 3 0

0.0%

0.0%

LY+YOY Growth% The same
Road-750 Black, 52 (BK-R19B-52) 7 7 0

0.0%

-8.9%

HoltWinters Better by 8.9 %pts
Road-750 Black, 58 (BK-R19B-58) 13 12 1

8.3%

-8.6%

Exponential Better by 0.2 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, L (SJ-0194-L) 9 7 2

28.6%

55.4%

Exponential Better by 26.9 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, M (SJ-0194-M) 6 6 0

0.0%

-18.1%

HoltWinters Better by 18.1 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, S (SJ-0194-S) 166 183 -17

-9.3%

-10.4%

HoltWinters Better by 1.2 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, XL (SJ-0194-X) 14 16 -2

-12.5%

7.3%

Exponential Worse by 5.2 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Black (HL-U509) 6 6 0

0.0%

-24.3%

HoltWinters Better by 24.3 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Blue (HL-U509-B) 5 5 0

0.0%

-28.3%

HoltWinters Better by 28.3 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Red (HL-U509-R) 10 9 1

11.1%

12.1%

Exponential Better by 1.0 %pts
Taillights - Battery-Powered (LT-T990) 15 10 5

50.0%

137.0%

HoltWinters Better by 87.0 %pts
Touring Front Wheel (FW-T905) 11 12 -1

-8.3%

26.6%

HoltWinters Better by 18.2 %pts
Touring Pedal (PD-T852) 2 2 0

0.0%

28.4%

HoltWinters Better by 28.4 %pts
Touring Rear Wheel (RW-T905) 49 44 5

11.4%

-2.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 9.0 %pts
Touring Tire (TI-T723) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Touring Tire Tube (TT-T092) 11 11 0

0.0%

56.2%

HoltWinters Better by 56.2 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 50 (BK-T79U-50) 12 12 0

0.0%

7.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 7.1 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 54 (BK-T79U-54) 1 1 0

0.0%

6.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 6.7 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 60 (BK-T79U-60) 37 39 -2

-5.1%

-5.1%

Regression Worse by 0.1 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 46 (BK-T79Y-46) 6 6 0

0.0%

52.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 52.7 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T79Y-50) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Touring-1000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T79Y-54) 79 79 0

0.0%

-6.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 6.6 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 60 (BK-T79Y-60) 2 2 0

0.0%

-50.9%

HoltWinters Better by 50.9 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 46 (BK-T44U-46) 2 2 0

0.0%

12.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 12.5 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 50 (BK-T44U-50) 4 4 0

0.0%

25.5%

HoltWinters Better by 25.5 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 54 (BK-T44U-54) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Touring-2000 Blue, 60 (BK-T44U-60) 9 7 2

28.6%

5.9%

HoltWinters Worse by 22.6 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 44 (BK-T18U-44) 5 4 1

25.0%

11.5%

Exponential Worse by 13.5 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 50 (BK-T18U-50) 14 15 -1

-6.7%

0.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 6.2 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 54 (BK-T18U-54) 3 3 0

0.0%

8.4%

HoltWinters Better by 8.4 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 58 (BK-T18U-58) 2 2 0

0.0%

-40.5%

HoltWinters Better by 40.5 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 62 (BK-T18U-62) 6 6 0

0.0%

-51.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 51.2 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 44 (BK-T18Y-44) 181 239 -58

-24.3%

-24.8%

HoltWinters Better by 0.6 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T18Y-50) 58 51 7

13.7%

-6.9%

HoltWinters Worse by 6.8 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T18Y-54) 23 20 3

15.0%

46.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 31.9 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 58 (BK-T18Y-58) 8 5 3

60.0%

121.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 61.2 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 62 (BK-T18Y-62) 30 26 4

15.4%

42.0%

HoltWinters Better by 26.6 %pts
Touring-Panniers, Large (PA-T100) 42 44 -2

-4.5%

11.5%

Regression Better by 7.0 %pts
Water Bottle - 30 oz. (WB-H098) 7 8 -1

-12.5%

-41.8%

HoltWinters Better by 29.3 %pts
Women's Mountain Shorts, M (SH-W890-M) 11 9 2

22.2%

55.9%

HoltWinters Better by 33.7 %pts
Women's Mountain Shorts, S (SH-W890-S) 2 2 0

0.0%

23.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 23.5 %pts
Women's Tights, L (TG-W091-L) 170 116 54

46.6%

53.4%

Exponential Better by 6.8 %pts
Women's Tights, M (TG-W091-M) 27 26 1

3.8%

-10.3%

HoltWinters Better by 6.5 %pts
Women's Tights, S (TG-W091-S) 4 4 0

0.0%

6.0%

Regression Better by 6.0 %pts
Total 6,976 6,743 233 3.5% -3.6%   Better in 239 out of 299 items (79.9%)
Weighted Average % Error 12.3% Weighted Average % Error (Alt) 11.4% Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) 6.9% Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) 3.0
Weighted Average % Error-Statistics 18.3% Weighted Average % Error (Alt)-Statistics 17.0% Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)-Statistics 22.6% Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)-Statistics 4.1

Value Added Reseller(France) - Prepared in Jul - Period of sale: Aug
Forecast Actual Variance Percent Error Stats Pct Error Best Algorithm Human vs. Statistics
All-Purpose Bike Stand (ST-1401) 40 39 1

2.6%

0.5%

HoltWinters Worse by 2.0 %pts
AWC Logo Cap (CA-1098) 56 57 -1

-1.8%

9.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 8.0 %pts
Bike Wash - Dissolver (CL-9009) 15 17 -2

-11.8%

-13.4%

Regression Better by 1.6 %pts
Cable Lock (LO-C100) 4 4 0

0.0%

13.7%

HoltWinters Better by 13.7 %pts
Chain (CH-0234) 9 9 0

0.0%

17.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 17.2 %pts
Classic Vest, L (VE-C304-L) 16 13 3

23.1%

19.0%

HoltWinters Worse by 4.1 %pts
Classic Vest, M (VE-C304-M) 8 7 1

14.3%

19.9%

Regression Better by 5.6 %pts
Classic Vest, S (VE-C304-S) 7 7 0

0.0%

-3.4%

Exponential Better by 3.4 %pts
Fender Set - Mountain (FE-6654) 2 2 0

0.0%

17.5%

HoltWinters Better by 17.5 %pts
Front Brakes (FB-9873) 1 1 0

0.0%

-7.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 7.1 %pts
Front Derailleur (FD-2342) 9 7 2

28.6%

30.4%

HoltWinters Better by 1.8 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, L (GL-F110-L) 235 270 -35

-13.0%

21.0%

HoltWinters Better by 8.1 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, S (GL-F110-S) 6 4 2

50.0%

17.6%

HoltWinters Worse by 32.4 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, L (GL-H102-L) 12 13 -1

-7.7%

-36.5%

HoltWinters Better by 28.8 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, M (GL-H102-M) 123 127 -4

-3.1%

-45.0%

HoltWinters Better by 41.8 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, S (GL-H102-S) 240 182 58

31.9%

47.8%

Regression Better by 15.9 %pts
Headlights - Dual-Beam (LT-H902) 58 52 6

11.5%

10.7%

Regression Worse by 0.8 %pts
Headlights - Weatherproof (LT-H903) 7 7 0

0.0%

-5.9%

Regression Better by 5.9 %pts
Hitch Rack - 4-Bike (RA-H123) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
HL Bottom Bracket (BB-9108) 1 1 0

0.0%

-100.0%

Regression Better by 100.0 %pts
HL Crankset (CS-9183) 10 11 -1

-9.1%

-18.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 9.1 %pts
HL Fork (FK-9939) 8 8 0

0.0%

-29.3%

Regression Better by 29.3 %pts
HL Headset (HS-3479) 9 8 1

12.5%

37.3%

Exponential Better by 24.8 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M94B-38) 1 1 0

0.0%

170.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 170.0 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M94B-42) 6 6 0

0.0%

14.5%

HoltWinters Better by 14.5 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M94B-44) 2 2 0

0.0%

62.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 62.5 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 46 (FR-M94B-46) 5 4 1

25.0%

13.6%

HoltWinters Worse by 11.4 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M94B-48) 4 4 0

0.0%

-17.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 17.3 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 38 (FR-M94S-38) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M94S-42) 2 2 0

0.0%

4.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 4.8 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M94S-44) 1 1 0

0.0%

-37.0%

HoltWinters Better by 37.0 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 46 (FR-M94S-46) 4 4 0

0.0%

19.6%

HoltWinters Better by 19.6 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M94S-52) 2 2 0

0.0%

-0.7%

HoltWinters Better by 0.7 %pts
HL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M928) 15 15 0

0.0%

-42.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 42.6 %pts
HL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M918) 9 7 2

28.6%

23.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 4.8 %pts
HL Mountain Pedal (PD-M562) 4 4 0

0.0%

2.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 2.3 %pts
HL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M928) 2 2 0

0.0%

160.3%

HoltWinters Better by 160.3 %pts
HL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M940) 2 2 0

0.0%

-0.2%

HoltWinters Better by 0.2 %pts
HL Mountain Tire (TI-M823) 1 1 0

0.0%

111.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 111.1 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R92B-44) 157 179 -22

-12.3%

-43.6%

HoltWinters Better by 31.3 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R92B-48) 137 118 19

16.1%

6.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 9.9 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R92B-52) 206 144 62

43.1%

50.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 7.3 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R92B-62) 8 6 2

33.3%

44.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 11.2 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R92R-44) 248 232 16

6.9%

2.3%

HoltWinters Worse by 4.6 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R92R-48) 11 11 0

0.0%

-12.2%

HoltWinters Better by 12.2 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R92R-52) 2 2 0

0.0%

-33.9%

HoltWinters Better by 33.9 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 56 (FR-R92R-56) 2 2 0

0.0%

0.6%

HoltWinters Better by 0.6 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R92R-58) 3 3 0

0.0%

-26.9%

HoltWinters Better by 26.9 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R92R-62) 45 35 10

28.6%

40.3%

HoltWinters Better by 11.7 %pts
HL Road Front Wheel (FW-R820) 13 9 4

44.4%

-5.9%

HoltWinters Worse by 38.6 %pts
HL Road Pedal (PD-R853) 11 12 -1

-8.3%

-33.7%

HoltWinters Better by 25.3 %pts
HL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R820) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
HL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R995) 12 13 -1

-7.7%

-18.5%

Exponential Better by 10.8 %pts
HL Road Tire (TI-R982) 11 11 0

0.0%

-7.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 7.4 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 46 (FR-T98U-46) 4 4 0

0.0%

2.1%

Exponential Better by 2.1 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T98U-50) 7 7 0

0.0%

7.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 7.7 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T98U-54) 2 2 0

0.0%

-72.0%

HoltWinters Better by 72.0 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 60 (FR-T98U-60) 193 225 -32

-14.2%

-13.7%

HoltWinters Worse by 0.5 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 46 (FR-T98Y-46) 31 29 2

6.9%

29.8%

HoltWinters Better by 22.9 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T98Y-50) 12 11 1

9.1%

-5.0%

HoltWinters Worse by 4.1 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T98Y-54) 38 39 -1

-2.6%

5.6%

HoltWinters Better by 3.0 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 60 (FR-T98Y-60) 1 1 0

0.0%

23.8%

Regression Better by 23.8 %pts
HL Touring Handlebars (HB-T928) 3 3 0

0.0%

-6.6%

Exponential Better by 6.6 %pts
HL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T924) 8 8 0

0.0%

-31.4%

HoltWinters Better by 31.4 %pts
Hydration Pack - 70 oz. (HY-1023-70) 2 2 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
LL Bottom Bracket (BB-7421) 2 2 0

0.0%

-10.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 10.3 %pts
LL Crankset (CS-4759) 4 4 0

0.0%

-9.1%

Regression Better by 9.1 %pts
LL Fork (FK-1639) 1 1 0

0.0%

140.0%

HoltWinters Better by 140.0 %pts
LL Headset (HS-0296) 2 2 0

0.0%

-43.4%

HoltWinters Better by 43.4 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M21B-40) 1 1 0

0.0%

61.1%

Exponential Better by 61.1 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M21B-42) 13 12 1

8.3%

14.8%

HoltWinters Better by 6.5 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M21B-44) 11 10 1

10.0%

-12.6%

HoltWinters Better by 2.6 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 52 (FR-M21B-52) 25 25 0

0.0%

-13.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 13.9 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 40 (FR-M21S-40) 6 6 0

0.0%

-47.6%

Exponential Better by 47.6 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M21S-42) 4 4 0

0.0%

13.9%

Exponential Better by 13.9 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M21S-44) 64 60 4

6.7%

13.1%

Regression Better by 6.5 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 52 (FR-M21S-52) 159 171 -12

-7.0%

-19.0%

HoltWinters Better by 12.0 %pts
LL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M423) 1 1 0

0.0%

-35.3%

HoltWinters Better by 35.3 %pts
LL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M243) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
LL Mountain Pedal (PD-M282) 8 8 0

0.0%

10.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 10.3 %pts
LL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M423) 2 2 0

0.0%

-29.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 29.2 %pts
LL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M236) 2 2 0

0.0%

39.9%

Regression Better by 39.9 %pts
LL Mountain Tire (TI-M267) 4 4 0

0.0%

1.5%

HoltWinters Better by 1.5 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R38B-44) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
LL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R38B-48) 13 10 3

30.0%

79.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 49.9 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R38B-52) 2 2 0

0.0%

62.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 62.5 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R38B-58) 3 3 0

0.0%

-3.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 3.0 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 60 (FR-R38B-60) 6 5 1

20.0%

23.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 3.7 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R38B-62) 3 3 0

0.0%

-35.7%

HoltWinters Better by 35.7 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R38R-44) 166 149 17

11.4%

25.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 14.0 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R38R-48) 3 3 0

0.0%

15.8%

HoltWinters Better by 15.8 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R38R-52) 2 2 0

0.0%

17.4%

HoltWinters Better by 17.4 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R38R-58) 155 143 12

8.4%

2.6%

Regression Worse by 5.8 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R38R-60) 256 355 -99

-27.9%

-40.8%

HoltWinters Better by 13.0 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R38R-62) 4 4 0

0.0%

0.0%

LY+YOY Growth% The same
LL Road Front Wheel (FW-R623) 3 3 0

0.0%

-23.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 23.1 %pts
LL Road Handlebars (HB-R504) 4 4 0

0.0%

-34.5%

HoltWinters Better by 34.5 %pts
LL Road Pedal (PD-R347) 3 3 0

0.0%

4.1%

HoltWinters Better by 4.1 %pts
LL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R623) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
LL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R581) 69 69 0

0.0%

-10.5%

HoltWinters Better by 10.5 %pts
LL Road Tire (TI-R092) 2 2 0

0.0%

-37.0%

HoltWinters Better by 37.0 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T67U-50) 3 3 0

0.0%

-0.0%

HoltWinters Better by 0.0 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T67U-54) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 58 (FR-T67U-58) 2 2 0

0.0%

8.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 8.3 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 62 (FR-T67U-62) 6 6 0

0.0%

10.1%

HoltWinters Better by 10.1 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 44 (FR-T67Y-44) 2 2 0

0.0%

5.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 5.9 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T67Y-50) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

LY+YOY Growth% The same
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T67Y-54) 111 125 -14

-11.2%

-17.6%

HoltWinters Better by 6.4 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 58 (FR-T67Y-58) 15 15 0

0.0%

-23.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 23.0 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 62 (FR-T67Y-62) 2 2 0

0.0%

-29.4%

HoltWinters Better by 29.4 %pts
LL Touring Handlebars (HB-T721) 2 2 0

0.0%

-44.3%

HoltWinters Better by 44.3 %pts
LL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T312) 3 3 0

0.0%

-46.7%

HoltWinters Better by 46.7 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, L (LJ-0192-L) 2 2 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, M (LJ-0192-M) 77 78 -1

-1.3%

-3.8%

HoltWinters Better by 2.5 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, S (LJ-0192-S) 6 6 0

0.0%

7.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 7.5 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, XL (LJ-0192-X) 16 12 4

33.3%

33.1%

Exponential Worse by 0.3 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, L (SB-M891-L) 3 3 0

0.0%

-29.0%

HoltWinters Better by 29.0 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, M (SB-M891-M) 8 5 3

60.0%

58.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 1.6 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, S (SB-M891-S) 3 3 0

0.0%

20.9%

Exponential Better by 20.9 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, L (SH-M897-L) 1 1 0

0.0%

7.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 7.1 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, M (SH-M897-M) 3 3 0

0.0%

-8.3%

Regression Better by 8.3 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, S (SH-M897-S) 143 133 10

7.5%

12.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 4.6 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, XL (SH-M897-X) 2 2 0

0.0%

48.5%

HoltWinters Better by 48.5 %pts
Minipump (PU-0452) 41 39 2

5.1%

-0.7%

Exponential Worse by 4.4 %pts
ML Bottom Bracket (BB-8107) 56 49 7

14.3%

2.2%

Regression Worse by 12.0 %pts
ML Crankset (CS-6583) 4 4 0

0.0%

4.4%

HoltWinters Better by 4.4 %pts
ML Fork (FK-5136) 10 9 1

11.1%

15.4%

HoltWinters Better by 4.2 %pts
ML Headset (HS-2451) 3 3 0

0.0%

10.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 10.3 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M63B-38) 2 2 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M63B-40) 6 6 0

0.0%

1.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 1.6 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M63B-44) 1 1 0

0.0%

159.1%

Regression Better by 159.1 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M63B-48) 222 174 48

27.6%

-34.6%

HoltWinters Better by 7.0 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 38 (FR-M63S-38) 11 12 -1

-8.3%

-53.9%

HoltWinters Better by 45.6 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 40 (FR-M63S-40) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 42 (FR-M63S-42) 12 12 0

0.0%

-5.2%

HoltWinters Better by 5.2 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 46 (FR-M63S-46) 147 152 -5

-3.3%

-36.2%

HoltWinters Better by 33.0 %pts
ML Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M762) 2 2 0

0.0%

5.2%

HoltWinters Better by 5.2 %pts
ML Mountain Handlebars (HB-M763) 3 3 0

0.0%

-45.9%

HoltWinters Better by 45.9 %pts
ML Mountain Pedal (PD-M340) 1 1 0

0.0%

68.3%

HoltWinters Better by 68.3 %pts
ML Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M762) 10 7 3

42.9%

77.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 34.3 %pts
ML Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M798) 9 10 -1

-10.0%

36.6%

HoltWinters Better by 26.6 %pts
ML Mountain Tire (TI-M602) 58 59 -1

-1.7%

-19.4%

HoltWinters Better by 17.7 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R72R-44) 5 5 0

0.0%

-0.3%

HoltWinters Better by 0.3 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R72R-48) 32 32 0

0.0%

-20.6%

HoltWinters Better by 20.6 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R72R-52) 38 39 -1

-2.6%

-19.9%

HoltWinters Better by 17.3 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R72R-58) 14 10 4

40.0%

33.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 6.9 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R72R-60) 2 2 0

0.0%

10.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 10.7 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 38 (FR-R72Y-38) 1 1 0

0.0%

353.1%

Regression Better by 353.1 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 40 (FR-R72Y-40) 3 3 0

0.0%

4.3%

HoltWinters Better by 4.3 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 42 (FR-R72Y-42) 2 2 0

0.0%

3.5%

HoltWinters Better by 3.5 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 44 (FR-R72Y-44) 37 27 10

37.0%

32.9%

Exponential Worse by 4.2 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 48 (FR-R72Y-48) 16 19 -3

-15.8%

7.5%

HoltWinters Worse by 8.3 %pts
ML Road Front Wheel (FW-R762) 52 52 0

0.0%

2.6%

Exponential Better by 2.6 %pts
ML Road Handlebars (HB-R720) 17 11 6

54.5%

87.8%

HoltWinters Better by 33.3 %pts
ML Road Pedal (PD-R563) 41 40 1

2.5%

-2.4%

HoltWinters Worse by 0.1 %pts
ML Road Rear Wheel (RW-R762) 4 4 0

0.0%

9.0%

HoltWinters Better by 9.0 %pts
ML Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R908) 8 8 0

0.0%

33.5%

HoltWinters Better by 33.5 %pts
ML Road Tire (TI-R628) 5 5 0

0.0%

3.3%

HoltWinters Better by 3.3 %pts
ML Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T762) 2 2 0

0.0%

-28.1%

HoltWinters Better by 28.1 %pts
Mountain Bike Socks, L (SO-B909-L) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Mountain Bike Socks, M (SO-B909-M) 8 8 0

0.0%

15.7%

HoltWinters Better by 15.7 %pts
Mountain Bottle Cage (BC-M005) 2 2 0

0.0%

71.1%

Regression Better by 71.1 %pts
Mountain Pump (PU-M044) 10 10 0

0.0%

-26.7%

HoltWinters Better by 26.7 %pts
Mountain Tire Tube (TT-M928) 4 4 0

0.0%

-30.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 30.5 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 38 (BK-M82B-38) 6 6 0

0.0%

4.0%

Regression Better by 4.0 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 42 (BK-M82B-42) 75 51 24

47.1%

17.8%

HoltWinters Worse by 29.2 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 44 (BK-M82B-44) 4 4 0

0.0%

16.6%

Exponential Better by 16.6 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 48 (BK-M82B-48) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Mountain-100 Silver, 38 (BK-M82S-38) 4 4 0

0.0%

-19.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 19.1 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 42 (BK-M82S-42) 10 10 0

0.0%

15.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 15.7 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 44 (BK-M82S-44) 2 2 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Mountain-100 Silver, 48 (BK-M82S-48) 4 4 0

0.0%

5.2%

HoltWinters Better by 5.2 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 38 (BK-M68B-38) 1 1 0

0.0%

9.7%

HoltWinters Better by 9.7 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 42 (BK-M68B-42) 11 11 0

0.0%

6.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 6.7 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 46 (BK-M68B-46) 2 2 0

0.0%

-46.0%

Regression Better by 46.0 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 38 (BK-M68S-38) 21 18 3

16.7%

4.3%

Exponential Worse by 12.4 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 42 (BK-M68S-42) 3 3 0

0.0%

-44.5%

Regression Better by 44.5 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 46 (BK-M68S-46) 2 2 0

0.0%

7.7%

HoltWinters Better by 7.7 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 38 (BK-M47B-38) 7 7 0

0.0%

32.3%

HoltWinters Better by 32.3 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 40 (BK-M47B-40) 26 26 0

0.0%

20.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 20.3 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 44 (BK-M47B-44) 3 3 0

0.0%

-23.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 23.3 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 48 (BK-M47B-48) 213 223 -10

-4.5%

4.3%

Exponential Worse by 0.1 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 38 (BK-M38S-38) 3 3 0

0.0%

-28.1%

HoltWinters Better by 28.1 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 40 (BK-M38S-40) 113 111 2

1.8%

56.9%

HoltWinters Better by 55.1 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 42 (BK-M38S-42) 8 9 -1

-11.1%

-14.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 3.0 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 46 (BK-M38S-46) 5 3 2

66.7%

60.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 5.7 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 40 (BK-M18B-40) 43 40 3

7.5%

-2.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 4.9 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 42 (BK-M18B-42) 2 2 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Mountain-500 Black, 44 (BK-M18B-44) 117 129 -12

-9.3%

3.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 6.3 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 48 (BK-M18B-48) 44 40 4

10.0%

11.8%

HoltWinters Better by 1.8 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 52 (BK-M18B-52) 4 4 0

0.0%

8.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 8.3 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 40 (BK-M18S-40) 6 5 1

20.0%

-3.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 16.3 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 42 (BK-M18S-42) 147 161 -14

-8.7%

-25.6%

Exponential Better by 16.9 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 44 (BK-M18S-44) 38 37 1

2.7%

12.6%

HoltWinters Better by 9.8 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 48 (BK-M18S-48) 4 4 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Mountain-500 Silver, 52 (BK-M18S-52) 17 15 2

13.3%

22.2%

Regression Better by 8.9 %pts
Patch Kit/8 Patches (PK-7098) 182 190 -8

-4.2%

9.9%

Regression Better by 5.7 %pts
Racing Socks, L (SO-R809-L) 3 3 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Racing Socks, M (SO-R809-M) 3 3 0

0.0%

-35.6%

Regression Better by 35.6 %pts
Rear Brakes (RB-9231) 9 8 1

12.5%

-13.6%

HoltWinters Better by 1.1 %pts
Rear Derailleur (RD-2308) 116 131 -15

-11.5%

-12.6%

Regression Better by 1.2 %pts
Road Bottle Cage (BC-R205) 2 2 0

0.0%

-52.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 52.6 %pts
Road Tire Tube (TT-R982) 4 4 0

0.0%

-12.8%

HoltWinters Better by 12.8 %pts
Road-150 Red, 44 (BK-R93R-44) 2 2 0

0.0%

22.2%

Regression Better by 22.2 %pts
Road-150 Red, 52 (BK-R93R-52) 12 9 3

33.3%

35.1%

HoltWinters Better by 1.7 %pts
Road-150 Red, 56 (BK-R93R-56) 4 4 0

0.0%

-15.8%

HoltWinters Better by 15.8 %pts
Road-150 Red, 62 (BK-R93R-62) 5 5 0

0.0%

-27.0%

Regression Better by 27.0 %pts
Road-250 Black, 44 (BK-R89B-44) 45 47 -2

-4.3%

-35.3%

HoltWinters Better by 31.1 %pts
Road-250 Black, 48 (BK-R89B-48) 33 26 7

26.9%

5.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 21.3 %pts
Road-250 Black, 52 (BK-R89B-52) 2 2 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Road-250 Black, 58 (BK-R89B-58) 1 1 0

0.0%

49.7%

Regression Better by 49.7 %pts
Road-250 Red, 44 (BK-R89R-44) 17 11 6

54.5%

99.7%

Regression Better by 45.1 %pts
Road-250 Red, 48 (BK-R89R-48) 237 255 -18

-7.1%

-22.7%

Regression Better by 15.7 %pts
Road-250 Red, 52 (BK-R89R-52) 3 3 0

0.0%

-40.5%

Exponential Better by 40.5 %pts
Road-250 Red, 58 (BK-R89R-58) 7 7 0

0.0%

-32.5%

HoltWinters Better by 32.5 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R79Y-40) 9 11 -2

-18.2%

-46.1%

HoltWinters Better by 28.0 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R79Y-42) 3 3 0

0.0%

-4.6%

Regression Better by 4.6 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R79Y-44) 2 2 0

0.0%

7.9%

Regression Better by 7.9 %pts
Road-450 Red, 48 (BK-R68R-48) 16 16 0

0.0%

-17.2%

Regression Better by 17.2 %pts
Road-450 Red, 52 (BK-R68R-52) 3 3 0

0.0%

-38.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 38.1 %pts
Road-450 Red, 58 (BK-R68R-58) 92 95 -3

-3.2%

12.2%

HoltWinters Better by 9.0 %pts
Road-450 Red, 60 (BK-R68R-60) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Road-550-W Yellow, 38 (BK-R64Y-38) 2 2 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Road-550-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R64Y-40) 2 2 0

0.0%

-40.0%

Regression Better by 40.0 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R64Y-42) 13 14 -1

-7.1%

3.1%

Exponential Worse by 4.1 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R64Y-44) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Road-550-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R64Y-48) 5 5 0

0.0%

20.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 20.0 %pts
Road-650 Black, 44 (BK-R50B-44) 5 5 0

0.0%

37.6%

Regression Better by 37.6 %pts
Road-650 Black, 48 (BK-R50B-48) 5 5 0

0.0%

6.9%

Regression Better by 6.9 %pts
Road-650 Black, 52 (BK-R50B-52) 3 3 0

0.0%

11.7%

Regression Better by 11.7 %pts
Road-650 Black, 58 (BK-R50B-58) 16 14 2

14.3%

-30.8%

HoltWinters Better by 16.5 %pts
Road-650 Black, 60 (BK-R50B-60) 13 14 -1

-7.1%

-5.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 2.1 %pts
Road-650 Black, 62 (BK-R50B-62) 2 2 0

0.0%

13.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 13.3 %pts
Road-650 Red, 44 (BK-R50R-44) 8 8 0

0.0%

-5.5%

HoltWinters Better by 5.5 %pts
Road-650 Red, 48 (BK-R50R-48) 8 7 1

14.3%

93.4%

HoltWinters Better by 79.1 %pts
Road-650 Red, 52 (BK-R50R-52) 99 83 16

19.3%

40.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 20.8 %pts
Road-650 Red, 58 (BK-R50R-58) 3 3 0

0.0%

-29.3%

HoltWinters Better by 29.3 %pts
Road-650 Red, 60 (BK-R50R-60) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Road-650 Red, 62 (BK-R50R-62) 24 25 -1

-4.0%

-17.0%

Regression Better by 13.0 %pts
Road-750 Black, 44 (BK-R19B-44) 15 15 0

0.0%

-41.0%

HoltWinters Better by 41.0 %pts
Road-750 Black, 48 (BK-R19B-48) 2 2 0

0.0%

8.8%

HoltWinters Better by 8.8 %pts
Road-750 Black, 52 (BK-R19B-52) 10 10 0

0.0%

10.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 10.5 %pts
Road-750 Black, 58 (BK-R19B-58) 16 16 0

0.0%

-49.3%

HoltWinters Better by 49.3 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, L (SJ-0194-L) 7 7 0

0.0%

-2.7%

Regression Better by 2.7 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, M (SJ-0194-M) 11 10 1

10.0%

-4.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 5.9 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, S (SJ-0194-S) 72 67 5

7.5%

-24.5%

HoltWinters Better by 17.1 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, XL (SJ-0194-X) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Sport-100 Helmet, Black (HL-U509) 2 2 0

0.0%

-56.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 56.5 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Blue (HL-U509-B) 5 5 0

0.0%

-37.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 37.6 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Red (HL-U509-R) 2 2 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Taillights - Battery-Powered (LT-T990) 10 7 3

42.9%

31.4%

HoltWinters Worse by 11.4 %pts
Touring Front Wheel (FW-T905) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Touring Pedal (PD-T852) 3 3 0

0.0%

-10.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 10.3 %pts
Touring Rear Wheel (RW-T905) 31 32 -1

-3.1%

-11.7%

Regression Better by 8.6 %pts
Touring Tire (TI-T723) 2 2 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Touring Tire Tube (TT-T092) 13 15 -2

-13.3%

10.9%

Regression Worse by 2.5 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 46 (BK-T79U-46) 7 7 0

0.0%

-13.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 13.1 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 54 (BK-T79U-54) 4 4 0

0.0%

-16.7%

Exponential Better by 16.7 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 60 (BK-T79U-60) 118 104 14

13.5%

31.0%

HoltWinters Better by 17.5 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 46 (BK-T79Y-46) 5 5 0

0.0%

-3.4%

Exponential Better by 3.4 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T79Y-50) 3 3 0

0.0%

0.0%

LY+YOY Growth% The same
Touring-1000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T79Y-54) 40 34 6

17.6%

-11.6%

HoltWinters Worse by 6.0 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 60 (BK-T79Y-60) 10 8 2

25.0%

-0.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 24.3 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 46 (BK-T44U-46) 2 2 0

0.0%

3.7%

HoltWinters Better by 3.7 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 54 (BK-T44U-54) 8 7 1

14.3%

13.1%

HoltWinters Worse by 1.2 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 60 (BK-T44U-60) 6 6 0

0.0%

-18.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 18.0 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 44 (BK-T18U-44) 5 5 0

0.0%

27.3%

HoltWinters Better by 27.3 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 50 (BK-T18U-50) 3 3 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Touring-3000 Blue, 54 (BK-T18U-54) 3 3 0

0.0%

-25.4%

HoltWinters Better by 25.4 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 58 (BK-T18U-58) 9 9 0

0.0%

-13.7%

Exponential Better by 13.7 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 62 (BK-T18U-62) 3 3 0

0.0%

-47.7%

HoltWinters Better by 47.7 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 44 (BK-T18Y-44) 35 26 9

34.6%

49.8%

HoltWinters Better by 15.2 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T18Y-50) 40 40 0

0.0%

-3.6%

Exponential Better by 3.6 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T18Y-54) 216 232 -16

-6.9%

-18.4%

Exponential Better by 11.5 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 58 (BK-T18Y-58) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Touring-3000 Yellow, 62 (BK-T18Y-62) 163 178 -15

-8.4%

-14.0%

HoltWinters Better by 5.6 %pts
Touring-Panniers, Large (PA-T100) 45 43 2

4.7%

21.1%

HoltWinters Better by 16.4 %pts
Water Bottle - 30 oz. (WB-H098) 10 8 2

25.0%

1.4%

Regression Worse by 23.6 %pts
Women's Mountain Shorts, M (SH-W890-M) 2 2 0

0.0%

-100.0%

Regression Better by 100.0 %pts
Women's Mountain Shorts, S (SH-W890-S) 12 8 4

50.0%

51.4%

HoltWinters Better by 1.4 %pts
Women's Tights, L (TG-W091-L) 45 36 9

25.0%

14.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 10.9 %pts
Women's Tights, M (TG-W091-M) 71 69 2

2.9%

-4.1%

Regression Better by 1.2 %pts
Women's Tights, S (TG-W091-S) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.9%

Exponential Better by 0.9 %pts
Total 7,466 7,358 108 1.5% -2.3%   Better in 230 out of 299 items (76.9%)
Weighted Average % Error 11.3% Weighted Average % Error (Alt) 10.6% Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) 6.3% Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) 2.9
Weighted Average % Error-Statistics 21.6% Weighted Average % Error (Alt)-Statistics 10.4% Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)-Statistics 23.5% Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)-Statistics 5.3

Warehouse(FR) - Prepared in Jul - Period of sale: Aug
Forecast Actual Variance Percent Error Stats Pct Error Best Algorithm Human vs. Statistics
All-Purpose Bike Stand (ST-1401) 20 20 0

0.0%

-2.5%

Exponential Better by 2.5 %pts
AWC Logo Cap (CA-1098) 319 352 -33

-9.4%

-35.3%

HoltWinters Better by 25.9 %pts
Bike Wash - Dissolver (CL-9009) 7 5 2

40.0%

48.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 8.1 %pts
Cable Lock (LO-C100) 3 3 0

0.0%

33.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 33.3 %pts
Chain (CH-0234) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Classic Vest, L (VE-C304-L) 19 19 0

0.0%

-43.0%

HoltWinters Better by 43.0 %pts
Classic Vest, M (VE-C304-M) 12 12 0

0.0%

-58.5%

HoltWinters Better by 58.5 %pts
Classic Vest, S (VE-C304-S) 15 13 2

15.4%

14.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 0.8 %pts
Fender Set - Mountain (FE-6654) 2 2 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Front Brakes (FB-9873) 16 14 2

14.3%

-16.2%

HoltWinters Better by 1.9 %pts
Front Derailleur (FD-2342) 3 3 0

0.0%

0.0%

LY+YOY Growth% The same
Full-Finger Gloves, L (GL-F110-L) 56 47 9

19.1%

13.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 5.7 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, M (GL-F110-M) 7 8 -1

-12.5%

-52.5%

HoltWinters Better by 40.0 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, S (GL-F110-S) 5 4 1

25.0%

28.4%

HoltWinters Better by 3.4 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, L (GL-H102-L) 23 21 2

9.5%

-11.3%

Exponential Better by 1.7 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, M (GL-H102-M) 87 86 1

1.2%

12.7%

HoltWinters Better by 11.5 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, S (GL-H102-S) 54 53 1

1.9%

-3.6%

HoltWinters Better by 1.7 %pts
Headlights - Dual-Beam (LT-H902) 249 258 -9

-3.5%

-25.6%

HoltWinters Better by 22.1 %pts
Headlights - Weatherproof (LT-H903) 4 4 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
HL Bottom Bracket (BB-9108) 14 13 1

7.7%

-8.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 0.6 %pts
HL Crankset (CS-9183) 3 3 0

0.0%

0.7%

HoltWinters Better by 0.7 %pts
HL Fork (FK-9939) 4 4 0

0.0%

-18.5%

HoltWinters Better by 18.5 %pts
HL Headset (HS-3479) 4 3 1

33.3%

38.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 5.1 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M94B-38) 8 9 -1

-11.1%

0.4%

Exponential Worse by 10.8 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M94B-42) 6 5 1

20.0%

-49.6%

HoltWinters Better by 29.6 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M94B-44) 14 9 5

55.6%

84.1%

HoltWinters Better by 28.6 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 46 (FR-M94B-46) 2 2 0

0.0%

-50.0%

Regression Better by 50.0 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M94B-48) 3 3 0

0.0%

-28.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 28.2 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 38 (FR-M94S-38) 13 11 2

18.2%

31.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 13.5 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M94S-44) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 46 (FR-M94S-46) 3 3 0

0.0%

18.2%

Exponential Better by 18.2 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M94S-52) 2 2 0

0.0%

60.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 60.0 %pts
HL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M928) 17 17 0

0.0%

11.6%

HoltWinters Better by 11.6 %pts
HL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M918) 18 17 1

5.9%

-19.3%

HoltWinters Better by 13.5 %pts
HL Mountain Pedal (PD-M562) 3 3 0

0.0%

3.2%

Regression Better by 3.2 %pts
HL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M928) 17 13 4

30.8%

2.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 28.3 %pts
HL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M940) 3 3 0

0.0%

3.2%

HoltWinters Better by 3.2 %pts
HL Mountain Tire (TI-M823) 10 11 -1

-9.1%

-17.5%

HoltWinters Better by 8.4 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R92B-44) 135 102 33

32.4%

25.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 6.4 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R92B-48) 80 84 -4

-4.8%

-10.9%

HoltWinters Better by 6.1 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R92B-52) 136 139 -3

-2.2%

20.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 17.9 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R92B-58) 8 7 1

14.3%

-12.8%

HoltWinters Worse by 1.5 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R92B-62) 1 1 0

0.0%

89.7%

HoltWinters Better by 89.7 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R92R-44) 35 37 -2

-5.4%

-25.5%

HoltWinters Better by 20.1 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R92R-48) 5 5 0

0.0%

-3.5%

HoltWinters Better by 3.5 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R92R-52) 10 10 0

0.0%

-3.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 3.5 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 56 (FR-R92R-56) 14 17 -3

-17.6%

-28.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 10.8 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R92R-58) 17 15 2

13.3%

-8.5%

HoltWinters Worse by 4.8 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R92R-62) 195 246 -51

-20.7%

13.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 6.8 %pts
HL Road Front Wheel (FW-R820) 2 2 0

0.0%

69.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 69.6 %pts
HL Road Handlebars (HB-R956) 17 15 2

13.3%

25.6%

HoltWinters Better by 12.3 %pts
HL Road Pedal (PD-R853) 1 1 0

0.0%

21.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 21.4 %pts
HL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R820) 8 8 0

0.0%

-19.1%

Exponential Better by 19.1 %pts
HL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R995) 4 4 0

0.0%

0.0%

LY+YOY Growth% The same
HL Road Tire (TI-R982) 3 3 0

0.0%

39.4%

HoltWinters Better by 39.4 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 46 (FR-T98U-46) 10 9 1

11.1%

6.2%

HoltWinters Worse by 5.0 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T98U-50) 6 6 0

0.0%

13.5%

HoltWinters Better by 13.5 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T98U-54) 7 7 0

0.0%

0.3%

HoltWinters Better by 0.3 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 60 (FR-T98U-60) 64 65 -1

-1.5%

-3.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 1.7 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 46 (FR-T98Y-46) 29 19 10

52.6%

49.5%

Regression Worse by 3.2 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T98Y-50) 2 2 0

0.0%

14.7%

Regression Better by 14.7 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T98Y-54) 61 61 0

0.0%

-4.3%

Exponential Better by 4.3 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 60 (FR-T98Y-60) 14 15 -1

-6.7%

-20.9%

Regression Better by 14.2 %pts
HL Touring Handlebars (HB-T928) 2 2 0

0.0%

67.6%

HoltWinters Better by 67.6 %pts
HL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T924) 16 11 5

45.5%

7.7%

Regression Worse by 37.8 %pts
Hydration Pack - 70 oz. (HY-1023-70) 2 2 0

0.0%

-1.7%

Exponential Better by 1.7 %pts
LL Bottom Bracket (BB-7421) 6 6 0

0.0%

0.1%

Exponential Better by 0.1 %pts
LL Crankset (CS-4759) 9 9 0

0.0%

20.9%

HoltWinters Better by 20.9 %pts
LL Fork (FK-1639) 3 3 0

0.0%

75.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 75.0 %pts
LL Headset (HS-0296) 13 10 3

30.0%

73.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 43.1 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M21B-40) 2 2 0

0.0%

5.8%

HoltWinters Better by 5.8 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M21B-42) 12 12 0

0.0%

-8.0%

Exponential Better by 8.0 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M21B-44) 2 2 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M21B-48) 16 18 -2

-11.1%

-13.2%

Exponential Better by 2.1 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 52 (FR-M21B-52) 338 367 -29

-7.9%

-27.2%

Regression Better by 19.3 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 40 (FR-M21S-40) 112 113 -1

-0.9%

-5.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 4.2 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M21S-42) 1 1 0

0.0%

16.1%

Regression Better by 16.1 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M21S-44) 127 114 13

11.4%

12.1%

Regression Better by 0.7 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M21S-48) 27 23 4

17.4%

-30.7%

HoltWinters Better by 13.3 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 52 (FR-M21S-52) 104 127 -23

-18.1%

-22.1%

Regression Better by 4.0 %pts
LL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M423) 13 10 3

30.0%

10.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 20.0 %pts
LL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M243) 18 12 6

50.0%

57.8%

Regression Better by 7.8 %pts
LL Mountain Pedal (PD-M282) 16 18 -2

-11.1%

-15.4%

Exponential Better by 4.2 %pts
LL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M423) 4 4 0

0.0%

-24.2%

HoltWinters Better by 24.2 %pts
LL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M236) 9 9 0

0.0%

-50.5%

HoltWinters Better by 50.5 %pts
LL Mountain Tire (TI-M267) 16 16 0

0.0%

7.7%

HoltWinters Better by 7.7 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R38B-44) 13 14 -1

-7.1%

1.0%

Exponential Worse by 6.1 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R38B-48) 29 30 -1

-3.3%

-9.8%

Regression Better by 6.5 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R38B-52) 2 2 0

0.0%

6.5%

HoltWinters Better by 6.5 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 60 (FR-R38B-60) 12 14 -2

-14.3%

-25.6%

Exponential Better by 11.3 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R38B-62) 2 2 0

0.0%

54.0%

Regression Better by 54.0 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R38R-44) 20 21 -1

-4.8%

-15.4%

HoltWinters Better by 10.6 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R38R-48) 9 9 0

0.0%

10.4%

Regression Better by 10.4 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R38R-52) 13 15 -2

-13.3%

-34.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 21.0 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R38R-58) 46 41 5

12.2%

10.9%

HoltWinters Worse by 1.3 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R38R-60) 275 229 46

20.1%

3.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 17.0 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R38R-62) 19 18 1

5.6%

-14.3%

HoltWinters Better by 8.7 %pts
LL Road Front Wheel (FW-R623) 12 15 -3

-20.0%

-2.9%

Exponential Worse by 17.1 %pts
LL Road Handlebars (HB-R504) 2 2 0

0.0%

1.1%

HoltWinters Better by 1.1 %pts
LL Road Pedal (PD-R347) 12 14 -2

-14.3%

-31.6%

Exponential Better by 17.3 %pts
LL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R623) 15 13 2

15.4%

18.1%

HoltWinters Better by 2.7 %pts
LL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R581) 102 78 24

30.8%

39.6%

HoltWinters Better by 8.8 %pts
LL Road Tire (TI-R092) 6 6 0

0.0%

76.0%

Regression Better by 76.0 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 44 (FR-T67U-44) 15 15 0

0.0%

-4.3%

HoltWinters Better by 4.3 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T67U-50) 2 2 0

0.0%

-45.5%

Regression Better by 45.5 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T67U-54) 9 9 0

0.0%

-5.7%

Regression Better by 5.7 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 58 (FR-T67U-58) 11 12 -1

-8.3%

-19.1%

HoltWinters Better by 10.8 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 62 (FR-T67U-62) 3 3 0

0.0%

13.9%

Regression Better by 13.9 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 44 (FR-T67Y-44) 1 1 0

0.0%

62.2%

Regression Better by 62.2 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T67Y-50) 14 14 0

0.0%

2.0%

HoltWinters Better by 2.0 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T67Y-54) 232 225 7

3.1%

14.3%

HoltWinters Better by 11.2 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 58 (FR-T67Y-58) 6 6 0

0.0%

5.1%

Exponential Better by 5.1 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 62 (FR-T67Y-62) 11 9 2

22.2%

11.1%

HoltWinters Worse by 11.1 %pts
LL Touring Handlebars (HB-T721) 3 3 0

0.0%

1.4%

Regression Better by 1.4 %pts
LL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T312) 11 7 4

57.1%

79.0%

Exponential Better by 21.8 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, L (LJ-0192-L) 13 12 1

8.3%

-23.3%

Regression Better by 15.0 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, M (LJ-0192-M) 46 39 7

17.9%

-1.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 16.5 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, S (LJ-0192-S) 2 2 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, XL (LJ-0192-X) 3 3 0

0.0%

5.7%

HoltWinters Better by 5.7 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, L (SB-M891-L) 1 1 0

0.0%

9.5%

Exponential Better by 9.5 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, M (SB-M891-M) 6 6 0

0.0%

37.1%

HoltWinters Better by 37.1 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, S (SB-M891-S) 90 100 -10

-10.0%

-7.7%

HoltWinters Worse by 2.3 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, L (SH-M897-L) 3 3 0

0.0%

105.1%

HoltWinters Better by 105.1 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, M (SH-M897-M) 12 12 0

0.0%

-25.4%

Exponential Better by 25.4 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, S (SH-M897-S) 260 259 1

0.4%

-1.4%

HoltWinters Better by 1.0 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, XL (SH-M897-X) 2 2 0

0.0%

-35.5%

Exponential Better by 35.5 %pts
Minipump (PU-0452) 184 171 13

7.6%

10.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 2.8 %pts
ML Bottom Bracket (BB-8107) 38 33 5

15.2%

-11.7%

HoltWinters Worse by 3.4 %pts
ML Crankset (CS-6583) 2 2 0

0.0%

-39.5%

Regression Better by 39.5 %pts
ML Fork (FK-5136) 12 12 0

0.0%

9.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 9.9 %pts
ML Headset (HS-2451) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M63B-38) 14 15 -1

-6.7%

3.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 3.1 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M63B-40) 18 20 -2

-10.0%

-3.1%

Exponential Worse by 6.9 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M63B-44) 11 9 2

22.2%

26.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 3.8 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M63B-48) 267 236 31

13.1%

22.6%

Regression Better by 9.5 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 38 (FR-M63S-38) 14 14 0

0.0%

27.2%

HoltWinters Better by 27.2 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 40 (FR-M63S-40) 10 9 1

11.1%

3.8%

Regression Worse by 7.3 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 42 (FR-M63S-42) 5 5 0

0.0%

10.0%

Exponential Better by 10.0 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 46 (FR-M63S-46) 126 143 -17

-11.9%

-0.3%

Regression Worse by 11.6 %pts
ML Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M762) 3 3 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
ML Mountain Handlebars (HB-M763) 6 5 1

20.0%

3.8%

Regression Worse by 16.2 %pts
ML Mountain Pedal (PD-M340) 13 9 4

44.4%

34.5%

Regression Worse by 10.0 %pts
ML Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M762) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
ML Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M798) 6 6 0

0.0%

-10.3%

HoltWinters Better by 10.3 %pts
ML Mountain Tire (TI-M602) 71 65 6

9.2%

17.6%

Regression Better by 8.4 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R72R-44) 17 17 0

0.0%

-13.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 13.3 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R72R-48) 216 185 31

16.8%

73.8%

HoltWinters Better by 57.0 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R72R-52) 198 130 68

52.3%

39.5%

Exponential Worse by 12.8 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R72R-58) 7 7 0

0.0%

9.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 9.5 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R72R-60) 32 25 7

28.0%

18.0%

HoltWinters Worse by 10.0 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 38 (FR-R72Y-38) 6 6 0

0.0%

-8.5%

Regression Better by 8.5 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 40 (FR-R72Y-40) 15 14 1

7.1%

11.3%

HoltWinters Better by 4.2 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 42 (FR-R72Y-42) 16 14 2

14.3%

-0.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 13.7 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 44 (FR-R72Y-44) 74 64 10

15.6%

33.5%

Exponential Better by 17.9 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 48 (FR-R72Y-48) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
ML Road Front Wheel (FW-R762) 252 209 43

20.6%

-35.2%

HoltWinters Better by 14.6 %pts
ML Road Handlebars (HB-R720) 19 16 3

18.8%

21.5%

HoltWinters Better by 2.7 %pts
ML Road Pedal (PD-R563) 121 86 35

40.7%

51.9%

Regression Better by 11.2 %pts
ML Road Rear Wheel (RW-R762) 13 14 -1

-7.1%

38.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 31.2 %pts
ML Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R908) 22 22 0

0.0%

15.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 15.8 %pts
ML Road Tire (TI-R628) 15 15 0

0.0%

-14.4%

HoltWinters Better by 14.4 %pts
ML Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T762) 17 19 -2

-10.5%

-40.4%

HoltWinters Better by 29.9 %pts
Mountain Bike Socks, L (SO-B909-L) 8 8 0

0.0%

10.8%

Regression Better by 10.8 %pts
Mountain Bike Socks, M (SO-B909-M) 2 2 0

0.0%

0.0%

LY+YOY Growth% The same
Mountain Bottle Cage (BC-M005) 4 4 0

0.0%

-24.4%

HoltWinters Better by 24.4 %pts
Mountain Pump (PU-M044) 4 4 0

0.0%

29.0%

HoltWinters Better by 29.0 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 38 (BK-M82B-38) 1 1 0

0.0%

14.1%

HoltWinters Better by 14.1 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 42 (BK-M82B-42) 46 45 1

2.2%

7.4%

HoltWinters Better by 5.1 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 44 (BK-M82B-44) 14 16 -2

-12.5%

-30.5%

Regression Better by 18.0 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 48 (BK-M82B-48) 5 5 0

0.0%

11.7%

HoltWinters Better by 11.7 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 38 (BK-M82S-38) 4 4 0

0.0%

-14.5%

Exponential Better by 14.5 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 42 (BK-M82S-42) 3 3 0

0.0%

52.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 52.4 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 44 (BK-M82S-44) 13 13 0

0.0%

-2.1%

HoltWinters Better by 2.1 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 48 (BK-M82S-48) 3 3 0

0.0%

52.5%

Exponential Better by 52.5 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 38 (BK-M68B-38) 10 10 0

0.0%

9.9%

HoltWinters Better by 9.9 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 42 (BK-M68B-42) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Mountain-200 Black, 46 (BK-M68B-46) 7 7 0

0.0%

-15.4%

HoltWinters Better by 15.4 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 38 (BK-M68S-38) 236 194 42

21.6%

-7.7%

HoltWinters Worse by 13.9 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 42 (BK-M68S-42) 7 7 0

0.0%

12.6%

Regression Better by 12.6 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 46 (BK-M68S-46) 4 4 0

0.0%

-25.5%

HoltWinters Better by 25.5 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 38 (BK-M47B-38) 9 9 0

0.0%

6.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 6.3 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 40 (BK-M47B-40) 37 36 1

2.8%

7.6%

Exponential Better by 4.8 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 44 (BK-M47B-44) 19 21 -2

-9.5%

-19.7%

Exponential Better by 10.1 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 48 (BK-M47B-48) 140 118 22

18.6%

65.8%

Regression Better by 47.2 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 38 (BK-M38S-38) 2 2 0

0.0%

-42.1%

Regression Better by 42.1 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 40 (BK-M38S-40) 50 45 5

11.1%

24.8%

HoltWinters Better by 13.7 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 42 (BK-M38S-42) 12 8 4

50.0%

-10.9%

HoltWinters Worse by 39.1 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 46 (BK-M38S-46) 13 13 0

0.0%

34.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 34.7 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 40 (BK-M18B-40) 69 54 15

27.8%

21.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 6.8 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 42 (BK-M18B-42) 1 1 0

0.0%

-37.8%

HoltWinters Better by 37.8 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 44 (BK-M18B-44) 38 33 5

15.2%

6.7%

Regression Worse by 8.5 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 48 (BK-M18B-48) 292 367 -75

-20.4%

-24.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 3.5 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 52 (BK-M18B-52) 13 11 2

18.2%

-23.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 5.0 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 40 (BK-M18S-40) 4 4 0

0.0%

-15.2%

Regression Better by 15.2 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 42 (BK-M18S-42) 336 332 4

1.2%

-40.7%

HoltWinters Better by 39.5 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 44 (BK-M18S-44) 33 31 2

6.5%

-12.3%

HoltWinters Better by 5.8 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 48 (BK-M18S-48) 2 2 0

0.0%

-42.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 42.3 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 52 (BK-M18S-52) 4 4 0

0.0%

-45.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 45.0 %pts
Patch Kit/8 Patches (PK-7098) 51 50 1

2.0%

9.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 7.8 %pts
Racing Socks, L (SO-R809-L) 3 3 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Racing Socks, M (SO-R809-M) 7 7 0

0.0%

21.9%

Regression Better by 21.9 %pts
Rear Brakes (RB-9231) 4 4 0

0.0%

5.7%

HoltWinters Better by 5.7 %pts
Rear Derailleur (RD-2308) 215 263 -48

-18.3%

-24.9%

Exponential Better by 6.7 %pts
Road Bottle Cage (BC-R205) 11 9 2

22.2%

12.7%

Exponential Worse by 9.5 %pts
Road Tire Tube (TT-R982) 20 23 -3

-13.0%

-43.8%

HoltWinters Better by 30.8 %pts
Road-150 Red, 44 (BK-R93R-44) 20 15 5

33.3%

-20.9%

HoltWinters Worse by 12.4 %pts
Road-150 Red, 48 (BK-R93R-48) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Road-150 Red, 52 (BK-R93R-52) 12 12 0

0.0%

-24.0%

HoltWinters Better by 24.0 %pts
Road-150 Red, 56 (BK-R93R-56) 19 21 -2

-9.5%

-17.2%

Regression Better by 7.7 %pts
Road-150 Red, 62 (BK-R93R-62) 12 13 -1

-7.7%

-20.3%

Exponential Better by 12.6 %pts
Road-250 Black, 44 (BK-R89B-44) 29 30 -1

-3.3%

-1.1%

HoltWinters Worse by 2.2 %pts
Road-250 Black, 48 (BK-R89B-48) 158 145 13

9.0%

33.2%

Regression Better by 24.3 %pts
Road-250 Black, 52 (BK-R89B-52) 4 4 0

0.0%

-18.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 18.6 %pts
Road-250 Black, 58 (BK-R89B-58) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Road-250 Red, 44 (BK-R89R-44) 81 68 13

19.1%

-11.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 7.3 %pts
Road-250 Red, 48 (BK-R89R-48) 233 215 18

8.4%

36.9%

Exponential Better by 28.5 %pts
Road-250 Red, 52 (BK-R89R-52) 3 3 0

0.0%

-9.3%

Regression Better by 9.3 %pts
Road-250 Red, 58 (BK-R89R-58) 3 3 0

0.0%

-14.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 14.3 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R79Y-40) 8 8 0

0.0%

30.8%

HoltWinters Better by 30.8 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R79Y-42) 10 10 0

0.0%

-4.7%

HoltWinters Better by 4.7 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R79Y-44) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Road-350-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R79Y-48) 10 10 0

0.0%

18.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 18.6 %pts
Road-450 Red, 48 (BK-R68R-48) 21 21 0

0.0%

-22.5%

HoltWinters Better by 22.5 %pts
Road-450 Red, 52 (BK-R68R-52) 6 6 0

0.0%

-19.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 19.3 %pts
Road-450 Red, 58 (BK-R68R-58) 27 29 -2

-6.9%

-14.4%

HoltWinters Better by 7.6 %pts
Road-450 Red, 60 (BK-R68R-60) 3 3 0

0.0%

50.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 50.9 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 38 (BK-R64Y-38) 14 13 1

7.7%

1.4%

Regression Worse by 6.3 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R64Y-40) 2 2 0

0.0%

38.5%

HoltWinters Better by 38.5 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R64Y-42) 12 12 0

0.0%

-8.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 8.0 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R64Y-44) 3 3 0

0.0%

-7.6%

HoltWinters Better by 7.6 %pts
Road-650 Black, 44 (BK-R50B-44) 13 14 -1

-7.1%

-1.3%

HoltWinters Worse by 5.8 %pts
Road-650 Black, 48 (BK-R50B-48) 12 8 4

50.0%

21.9%

HoltWinters Worse by 28.1 %pts
Road-650 Black, 52 (BK-R50B-52) 17 18 -1

-5.6%

-20.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 14.9 %pts
Road-650 Black, 58 (BK-R50B-58) 2 2 0

0.0%

41.2%

Regression Better by 41.2 %pts
Road-650 Black, 60 (BK-R50B-60) 10 11 -1

-9.1%

-33.6%

HoltWinters Better by 24.5 %pts
Road-650 Black, 62 (BK-R50B-62) 3 3 0

0.0%

61.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 61.6 %pts
Road-650 Red, 44 (BK-R50R-44) 4 4 0

0.0%

63.2%

HoltWinters Better by 63.2 %pts
Road-650 Red, 52 (BK-R50R-52) 28 24 4

16.7%

-1.1%

Exponential Worse by 15.6 %pts
Road-650 Red, 58 (BK-R50R-58) 16 14 2

14.3%

-28.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 14.3 %pts
Road-650 Red, 60 (BK-R50R-60) 10 11 -1

-9.1%

-22.1%

Exponential Better by 13.0 %pts
Road-650 Red, 62 (BK-R50R-62) 21 18 3

16.7%

20.2%

Regression Better by 3.5 %pts
Road-750 Black, 44 (BK-R19B-44) 1 1 0

0.0%

-100.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 100.0 %pts
Road-750 Black, 48 (BK-R19B-48) 13 11 2

18.2%

12.6%

HoltWinters Worse by 5.6 %pts
Road-750 Black, 52 (BK-R19B-52) 2 2 0

0.0%

19.2%

Regression Better by 19.2 %pts
Road-750 Black, 58 (BK-R19B-58) 3 3 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, L (SJ-0194-L) 17 21 -4

-19.0%

-13.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 5.1 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, M (SJ-0194-M) 13 14 -1

-7.1%

18.8%

Exponential Better by 11.7 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, S (SJ-0194-S) 256 251 5

2.0%

7.2%

Exponential Better by 5.2 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, XL (SJ-0194-X) 3 3 0

0.0%

10.1%

HoltWinters Better by 10.1 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Black (HL-U509) 2 2 0

0.0%

20.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 20.0 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Blue (HL-U509-B) 14 14 0

0.0%

-9.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 9.4 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Red (HL-U509-R) 3 3 0

0.0%

-54.2%

Exponential Better by 54.2 %pts
Taillights - Battery-Powered (LT-T990) 14 10 4

40.0%

34.0%

HoltWinters Worse by 6.0 %pts
Touring Front Wheel (FW-T905) 3 3 0

0.0%

-20.8%

Regression Better by 20.8 %pts
Touring Pedal (PD-T852) 16 12 4

33.3%

-1.8%

HoltWinters Worse by 31.6 %pts
Touring Rear Wheel (RW-T905) 119 138 -19

-13.8%

-25.4%

Exponential Better by 11.6 %pts
Touring Tire (TI-T723) 5 5 0

0.0%

41.3%

HoltWinters Better by 41.3 %pts
Touring Tire Tube (TT-T092) 3 3 0

0.0%

26.0%

Exponential Better by 26.0 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 46 (BK-T79U-46) 32 29 3

10.3%

-17.2%

HoltWinters Better by 6.8 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 50 (BK-T79U-50) 2 2 0

0.0%

11.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 11.1 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 54 (BK-T79U-54) 24 26 -2

-7.7%

-29.9%

HoltWinters Better by 22.2 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 60 (BK-T79U-60) 34 35 -1

-2.9%

-12.7%

HoltWinters Better by 9.8 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 46 (BK-T79Y-46) 2 2 0

0.0%

4.1%

Exponential Better by 4.1 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T79Y-50) 5 5 0

0.0%

-12.2%

HoltWinters Better by 12.2 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T79Y-54) 175 173 2

1.2%

-8.8%

Regression Better by 7.6 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 60 (BK-T79Y-60) 4 4 0

0.0%

-25.8%

Regression Better by 25.8 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 46 (BK-T44U-46) 4 4 0

0.0%

28.9%

Exponential Better by 28.9 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 50 (BK-T44U-50) 3 3 0

0.0%

-26.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 26.9 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 54 (BK-T44U-54) 15 17 -2

-11.8%

-32.2%

Exponential Better by 20.4 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 60 (BK-T44U-60) 11 7 4

57.1%

64.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 7.7 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 44 (BK-T18U-44) 6 4 2

50.0%

25.7%

Exponential Worse by 24.3 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 50 (BK-T18U-50) 13 14 -1

-7.1%

-35.6%

HoltWinters Better by 28.5 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 54 (BK-T18U-54) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Touring-3000 Blue, 58 (BK-T18U-58) 3 3 0

0.0%

3.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 3.2 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 62 (BK-T18U-62) 9 9 0

0.0%

8.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 8.0 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 44 (BK-T18Y-44) 68 61 7

11.5%

14.2%

HoltWinters Better by 2.7 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T18Y-50) 112 130 -18

-13.8%

-35.8%

HoltWinters Better by 21.9 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T18Y-54) 108 93 15

16.1%

60.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 44.7 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 58 (BK-T18Y-58) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Touring-3000 Yellow, 62 (BK-T18Y-62) 42 36 6

16.7%

-7.3%

HoltWinters Worse by 9.4 %pts
Touring-Panniers, Large (PA-T100) 197 223 -26

-11.7%

-29.4%

Regression Better by 17.7 %pts
Water Bottle - 30 oz. (WB-H098) 24 27 -3

-11.1%

-38.2%

HoltWinters Better by 27.1 %pts
Women's Mountain Shorts, L (SH-W890-L) 5 5 0

0.0%

24.5%

Exponential Better by 24.5 %pts
Women's Mountain Shorts, M (SH-W890-M) 14 14 0

0.0%

21.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 21.0 %pts
Women's Mountain Shorts, S (SH-W890-S) 11 13 -2

-15.4%

-37.5%

HoltWinters Better by 22.2 %pts
Women's Tights, L (TG-W091-L) 62 62 0

0.0%

-3.2%

HoltWinters Better by 3.2 %pts
Women's Tights, M (TG-W091-M) 154 138 16

11.6%

0.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 11.5 %pts
Women's Tights, S (TG-W091-S) 10 7 3

42.9%

-3.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 39.2 %pts
Total 10,191 9,900 291 2.9% -1.3%   Better in 228 out of 299 items (76.3%)
Weighted Average % Error 11.7% Weighted Average % Error (Alt) 10.9% Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) 8.3% Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) 4.0
Weighted Average % Error-Statistics 22.1% Weighted Average % Error (Alt)-Statistics 8.4% Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)-Statistics 21.2% Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)-Statistics 7.3

Specialty Bike Shop(Germany) - Prepared in Jul - Period of sale: Aug
Forecast Actual Variance Percent Error Stats Pct Error Best Algorithm Human vs. Statistics
All-Purpose Bike Stand (ST-1401) 144 130 14

10.8%

20.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 9.9 %pts
AWC Logo Cap (CA-1098) 360 407 -47

-11.5%

-18.9%

Regression Better by 7.4 %pts
Bike Wash - Dissolver (CL-9009) 9 9 0

0.0%

-39.5%

HoltWinters Better by 39.5 %pts
Cable Lock (LO-C100) 8 8 0

0.0%

20.2%

HoltWinters Better by 20.2 %pts
Chain (CH-0234) 3 3 0

0.0%

-13.4%

Regression Better by 13.4 %pts
Classic Vest, L (VE-C304-L) 9 10 -1

-10.0%

41.7%

HoltWinters Better by 31.7 %pts
Classic Vest, M (VE-C304-M) 3 3 0

0.0%

-30.8%

HoltWinters Better by 30.8 %pts
Classic Vest, S (VE-C304-S) 8 8 0

0.0%

27.7%

Exponential Better by 27.7 %pts
Fender Set - Mountain (FE-6654) 1 1 0

0.0%

118.0%

HoltWinters Better by 118.0 %pts
Front Brakes (FB-9873) 20 20 0

0.0%

37.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 37.0 %pts
Front Derailleur (FD-2342) 24 26 -2

-7.7%

12.3%

HoltWinters Better by 4.6 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, L (GL-F110-L) 418 261 157

60.2%

49.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 10.9 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, M (GL-F110-M) 8 7 1

14.3%

23.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 9.5 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, S (GL-F110-S) 20 20 0

0.0%

-10.9%

HoltWinters Better by 10.9 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, L (GL-H102-L) 2 2 0

0.0%

44.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 44.2 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, M (GL-H102-M) 448 263 185

70.3%

40.9%

Regression Worse by 29.4 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, S (GL-H102-S) 129 113 16

14.2%

37.4%

Regression Better by 23.3 %pts
Headlights - Dual-Beam (LT-H902) 81 81 0

0.0%

-10.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 10.2 %pts
Headlights - Weatherproof (LT-H903) 17 16 1

6.3%

0.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 5.6 %pts
Hitch Rack - 4-Bike (RA-H123) 19 17 2

11.8%

16.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 4.9 %pts
HL Bottom Bracket (BB-9108) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
HL Crankset (CS-9183) 16 17 -1

-5.9%

-10.8%

HoltWinters Better by 4.9 %pts
HL Fork (FK-9939) 4 4 0

0.0%

-29.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 29.8 %pts
HL Headset (HS-3479) 12 12 0

0.0%

-11.2%

HoltWinters Better by 11.2 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M94B-38) 7 7 0

0.0%

11.2%

Exponential Better by 11.2 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M94B-42) 22 24 -2

-8.3%

-17.8%

Regression Better by 9.5 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M94B-44) 10 7 3

42.9%

30.9%

HoltWinters Worse by 11.9 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 46 (FR-M94B-46) 4 4 0

0.0%

-19.0%

HoltWinters Better by 19.0 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M94B-48) 9 6 3

50.0%

16.7%

HoltWinters Worse by 33.3 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 38 (FR-M94S-38) 13 14 -1

-7.1%

10.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 3.8 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M94S-42) 23 24 -1

-4.2%

5.5%

HoltWinters Better by 1.3 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M94S-44) 6 6 0

0.0%

10.9%

Regression Better by 10.9 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 46 (FR-M94S-46) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M94S-52) 10 11 -1

-9.1%

1.8%

Exponential Worse by 7.3 %pts
HL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M928) 12 12 0

0.0%

-12.8%

HoltWinters Better by 12.8 %pts
HL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M918) 9 11 -2

-18.2%

4.3%

HoltWinters Worse by 13.9 %pts
HL Mountain Pedal (PD-M562) 4 4 0

0.0%

0.0%

LY+YOY Growth% The same
HL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M928) 3 3 0

0.0%

14.9%

HoltWinters Better by 14.9 %pts
HL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M940) 24 28 -4

-14.3%

-12.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 2.0 %pts
HL Mountain Tire (TI-M823) 7 8 -1

-12.5%

14.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 2.3 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R92B-44) 277 290 -13

-4.5%

-13.3%

HoltWinters Better by 8.8 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R92B-48) 26 25 1

4.0%

3.9%

Regression Worse by 0.1 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R92B-52) 43 46 -3

-6.5%

-52.3%

HoltWinters Better by 45.8 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R92B-58) 15 15 0

0.0%

-24.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 24.2 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R92B-62) 13 15 -2

-13.3%

-29.5%

HoltWinters Better by 16.1 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R92R-44) 20 21 -1

-4.8%

-31.3%

HoltWinters Better by 26.6 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R92R-48) 8 7 1

14.3%

57.4%

HoltWinters Better by 43.1 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R92R-52) 11 11 0

0.0%

39.3%

HoltWinters Better by 39.3 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 56 (FR-R92R-56) 6 5 1

20.0%

20.5%

Regression Better by 0.5 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R92R-58) 17 14 3

21.4%

-5.2%

Regression Worse by 16.2 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R92R-62) 362 381 -19

-5.0%

-41.6%

HoltWinters Better by 36.6 %pts
HL Road Front Wheel (FW-R820) 9 8 1

12.5%

-6.1%

Regression Worse by 6.4 %pts
HL Road Handlebars (HB-R956) 21 21 0

0.0%

-22.7%

HoltWinters Better by 22.7 %pts
HL Road Pedal (PD-R853) 24 27 -3

-11.1%

15.4%

Regression Better by 4.3 %pts
HL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R820) 7 5 2

40.0%

18.9%

Exponential Worse by 21.1 %pts
HL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R995) 21 19 2

10.5%

0.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 10.1 %pts
HL Road Tire (TI-R982) 4 4 0

0.0%

14.2%

HoltWinters Better by 14.2 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 46 (FR-T98U-46) 15 17 -2

-11.8%

-15.1%

HoltWinters Better by 3.3 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T98U-50) 17 18 -1

-5.6%

-3.2%

Regression Worse by 2.4 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T98U-54) 14 12 2

16.7%

28.2%

HoltWinters Better by 11.5 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 60 (FR-T98U-60) 159 162 -3

-1.9%

-2.3%

Regression Better by 0.5 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 46 (FR-T98Y-46) 70 55 15

27.3%

18.9%

Exponential Worse by 8.4 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T98Y-50) 8 7 1

14.3%

15.4%

Regression Better by 1.1 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T98Y-54) 315 349 -34

-9.7%

-32.9%

HoltWinters Better by 23.2 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 60 (FR-T98Y-60) 2 2 0

0.0%

66.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 66.1 %pts
HL Touring Handlebars (HB-T928) 19 15 4

26.7%

6.8%

Exponential Worse by 19.8 %pts
HL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T924) 9 10 -1

-10.0%

16.1%

Regression Better by 6.1 %pts
Hydration Pack - 70 oz. (HY-1023-70) 6 6 0

0.0%

4.9%

Exponential Better by 4.9 %pts
LL Bottom Bracket (BB-7421) 17 12 5

41.7%

56.2%

Exponential Better by 14.5 %pts
LL Crankset (CS-4759) 20 22 -2

-9.1%

-2.2%

Regression Worse by 6.9 %pts
LL Fork (FK-1639) 11 13 -2

-15.4%

5.7%

HoltWinters Worse by 9.7 %pts
LL Headset (HS-0296) 23 21 2

9.5%

-24.3%

HoltWinters Better by 14.7 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M21B-40) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M21B-42) 2 2 0

0.0%

5.9%

HoltWinters Better by 5.9 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M21B-44) 6 6 0

0.0%

-32.8%

HoltWinters Better by 32.8 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M21B-48) 2 2 0

0.0%

30.7%

HoltWinters Better by 30.7 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 52 (FR-M21B-52) 186 143 43

30.1%

19.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 10.9 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 40 (FR-M21S-40) 144 156 -12

-7.7%

-25.3%

HoltWinters Better by 17.6 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M21S-42) 8 7 1

14.3%

-10.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 4.3 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M21S-44) 418 418 0

0.0%

-6.6%

Exponential Better by 6.6 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M21S-48) 1 1 0

0.0%

-100.0%

Regression Better by 100.0 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 52 (FR-M21S-52) 58 62 -4

-6.5%

3.5%

HoltWinters Worse by 3.0 %pts
LL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M423) 19 15 4

26.7%

21.2%

Exponential Worse by 5.4 %pts
LL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M243) 7 6 1

16.7%

-13.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 3.2 %pts
LL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M423) 9 8 1

12.5%

-10.8%

HoltWinters Worse by 1.7 %pts
LL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M236) 8 7 1

14.3%

-5.9%

HoltWinters Worse by 8.4 %pts
LL Mountain Tire (TI-M267) 12 13 -1

-7.7%

-19.5%

HoltWinters Better by 11.8 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R38B-44) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
LL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R38B-48) 12 13 -1

-7.7%

-3.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 3.8 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R38B-52) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
LL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R38B-58) 8 10 -2

-20.0%

-33.3%

HoltWinters Better by 13.3 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 60 (FR-R38B-60) 1 1 0

0.0%

57.5%

Regression Better by 57.5 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R38B-62) 14 14 0

0.0%

-6.9%

Exponential Better by 6.9 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R38R-44) 139 175 -36

-20.6%

8.3%

HoltWinters Worse by 12.2 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R38R-48) 3 3 0

0.0%

104.7%

Regression Better by 104.7 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R38R-52) 4 4 0

0.0%

-33.3%

HoltWinters Better by 33.3 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R38R-58) 140 114 26

22.8%

9.1%

HoltWinters Worse by 13.7 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R38R-60) 178 123 55

44.7%

80.8%

Exponential Better by 36.0 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R38R-62) 7 7 0

0.0%

-22.9%

HoltWinters Better by 22.9 %pts
LL Road Front Wheel (FW-R623) 3 3 0

0.0%

7.8%

HoltWinters Better by 7.8 %pts
LL Road Handlebars (HB-R504) 28 28 0

0.0%

6.5%

HoltWinters Better by 6.5 %pts
LL Road Pedal (PD-R347) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
LL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R623) 13 16 -3

-18.8%

-12.9%

HoltWinters Worse by 5.8 %pts
LL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R581) 366 301 65

21.6%

-26.7%

HoltWinters Better by 5.1 %pts
LL Road Tire (TI-R092) 21 21 0

0.0%

-7.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 7.7 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 44 (FR-T67U-44) 16 12 4

33.3%

52.3%

HoltWinters Better by 19.0 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T67U-50) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T67U-54) 24 22 2

9.1%

-16.0%

HoltWinters Better by 6.9 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 58 (FR-T67U-58) 8 7 1

14.3%

17.1%

Regression Better by 2.8 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 44 (FR-T67Y-44) 7 5 2

40.0%

39.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 0.9 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T67Y-50) 36 36 0

0.0%

-6.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 6.9 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T67Y-54) 32 31 1

3.2%

-7.4%

HoltWinters Better by 4.2 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 58 (FR-T67Y-58) 21 24 -3

-12.5%

17.9%

HoltWinters Better by 5.4 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 62 (FR-T67Y-62) 3 3 0

0.0%

1.1%

HoltWinters Better by 1.1 %pts
LL Touring Handlebars (HB-T721) 11 11 0

0.0%

-10.5%

HoltWinters Better by 10.5 %pts
LL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T312) 3 3 0

0.0%

-28.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 28.2 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, L (LJ-0192-L) 13 11 2

18.2%

25.5%

HoltWinters Better by 7.3 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, M (LJ-0192-M) 207 237 -30

-12.7%

-25.9%

Regression Better by 13.3 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, S (LJ-0192-S) 12 8 4

50.0%

66.7%

Regression Better by 16.7 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, XL (LJ-0192-X) 13 13 0

0.0%

12.0%

Exponential Better by 12.0 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, L (SB-M891-L) 12 13 -1

-7.7%

-19.4%

HoltWinters Better by 11.7 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, M (SB-M891-M) 11 11 0

0.0%

5.9%

HoltWinters Better by 5.9 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, S (SB-M891-S) 250 217 33

15.2%

-14.4%

HoltWinters Worse by 0.8 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, L (SH-M897-L) 3 3 0

0.0%

112.6%

HoltWinters Better by 112.6 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, M (SH-M897-M) 29 26 3

11.5%

12.4%

Regression Better by 0.9 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, S (SH-M897-S) 262 282 -20

-7.1%

-12.8%

Regression Better by 5.7 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, XL (SH-M897-X) 13 14 -1

-7.1%

-0.2%

Regression Worse by 7.0 %pts
Minipump (PU-0452) 85 79 6

7.6%

6.8%

Exponential Worse by 0.8 %pts
ML Bottom Bracket (BB-8107) 200 235 -35

-14.9%

-13.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 1.7 %pts
ML Crankset (CS-6583) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
ML Fork (FK-5136) 17 14 3

21.4%

-5.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 15.8 %pts
ML Headset (HS-2451) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M63B-38) 10 10 0

0.0%

16.3%

HoltWinters Better by 16.3 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M63B-40) 21 15 6

40.0%

39.4%

Regression Worse by 0.6 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M63B-44) 27 30 -3

-10.0%

-16.9%

HoltWinters Better by 6.9 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M63B-48) 107 107 0

0.0%

-11.6%

HoltWinters Better by 11.6 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 38 (FR-M63S-38) 12 11 1

9.1%

-3.6%

HoltWinters Worse by 5.5 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 40 (FR-M63S-40) 21 20 1

5.0%

-9.2%

Exponential Better by 4.2 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 42 (FR-M63S-42) 4 4 0

0.0%

4.7%

HoltWinters Better by 4.7 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 46 (FR-M63S-46) 282 355 -73

-20.6%

0.5%

HoltWinters Worse by 20.0 %pts
ML Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M762) 12 14 -2

-14.3%

-11.6%

Regression Worse by 2.7 %pts
ML Mountain Handlebars (HB-M763) 2 2 0

0.0%

-25.6%

Regression Better by 25.6 %pts
ML Mountain Pedal (PD-M340) 25 27 -2

-7.4%

-7.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 0.0 %pts
ML Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M762) 20 17 3

17.6%

42.0%

HoltWinters Better by 24.4 %pts
ML Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M798) 3 3 0

0.0%

-52.3%

Regression Better by 52.3 %pts
ML Mountain Tire (TI-M602) 338 414 -76

-18.4%

-35.1%

Exponential Better by 16.8 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R72R-44) 3 3 0

0.0%

-33.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 33.3 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R72R-48) 237 287 -50

-17.4%

1.8%

Regression Worse by 15.6 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R72R-52) 64 69 -5

-7.2%

7.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 0.5 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R72R-58) 3 3 0

0.0%

-4.5%

HoltWinters Better by 4.5 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R72R-60) 8 7 1

14.3%

13.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 0.5 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 38 (FR-R72Y-38) 6 6 0

0.0%

38.5%

HoltWinters Better by 38.5 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 40 (FR-R72Y-40) 3 3 0

0.0%

20.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 20.8 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 42 (FR-R72Y-42) 4 4 0

0.0%

-14.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 14.0 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 44 (FR-R72Y-44) 43 41 2

4.9%

-7.5%

HoltWinters Better by 2.7 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 48 (FR-R72Y-48) 2 2 0

0.0%

4.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 4.2 %pts
ML Road Front Wheel (FW-R762) 168 186 -18

-9.7%

-20.8%

Exponential Better by 11.1 %pts
ML Road Handlebars (HB-R720) 12 9 3

33.3%

34.6%

Regression Better by 1.2 %pts
ML Road Pedal (PD-R563) 439 347 92

26.5%

42.7%

HoltWinters Better by 16.2 %pts
ML Road Rear Wheel (RW-R762) 10 11 -1

-9.1%

-17.2%

Regression Better by 8.1 %pts
ML Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R908) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
ML Road Tire (TI-R628) 4 4 0

0.0%

-27.2%

HoltWinters Better by 27.2 %pts
ML Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T762) 20 21 -1

-4.8%

-18.0%

Exponential Better by 13.3 %pts
Mountain Bike Socks, L (SO-B909-L) 16 17 -1

-5.9%

-15.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 9.7 %pts
Mountain Bike Socks, M (SO-B909-M) 17 17 0

0.0%

-19.0%

HoltWinters Better by 19.0 %pts
Mountain Pump (PU-M044) 4 4 0

0.0%

27.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 27.5 %pts
Mountain Tire Tube (TT-M928) 3 3 0

0.0%

22.3%

Regression Better by 22.3 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 38 (BK-M82B-38) 4 4 0

0.0%

20.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 20.9 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 42 (BK-M82B-42) 104 124 -20

-16.1%

-33.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 17.2 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 44 (BK-M82B-44) 9 5 4

80.0%

74.8%

HoltWinters Worse by 5.2 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 48 (BK-M82B-48) 7 6 1

16.7%

37.6%

Regression Better by 21.0 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 38 (BK-M82S-38) 17 16 1

6.3%

52.3%

HoltWinters Better by 46.0 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 42 (BK-M82S-42) 9 8 1

12.5%

-13.1%

HoltWinters Better by 0.6 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 44 (BK-M82S-44) 18 16 2

12.5%

15.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 3.0 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 48 (BK-M82S-48) 17 15 2

13.3%

4.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 8.9 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 38 (BK-M68B-38) 15 12 3

25.0%

28.1%

Regression Better by 3.1 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 42 (BK-M68B-42) 19 21 -2

-9.5%

-18.8%

Regression Better by 9.3 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 46 (BK-M68B-46) 20 21 -1

-4.8%

-36.7%

HoltWinters Better by 32.0 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 38 (BK-M68S-38) 248 227 21

9.3%

8.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 0.9 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 42 (BK-M68S-42) 10 10 0

0.0%

0.6%

HoltWinters Better by 0.6 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 46 (BK-M68S-46) 32 29 3

10.3%

-10.3%

Regression Worse by 0.1 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 38 (BK-M47B-38) 4 4 0

0.0%

0.0%

LY+YOY Growth% The same
Mountain-300 Black, 40 (BK-M47B-40) 15 14 1

7.1%

9.8%

HoltWinters Better by 2.7 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 44 (BK-M47B-44) 11 8 3

37.5%

3.1%

Regression Worse by 34.4 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 48 (BK-M47B-48) 168 196 -28

-14.3%

6.8%

HoltWinters Worse by 7.5 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 38 (BK-M38S-38) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Mountain-400-W Silver, 40 (BK-M38S-40) 85 73 12

16.4%

-24.6%

HoltWinters Better by 8.2 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 42 (BK-M38S-42) 18 16 2

12.5%

-14.5%

HoltWinters Better by 2.0 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 46 (BK-M38S-46) 6 6 0

0.0%

0.3%

HoltWinters Better by 0.3 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 40 (BK-M18B-40) 273 203 70

34.5%

34.8%

Regression Better by 0.3 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 42 (BK-M18B-42) 18 19 -1

-5.3%

-4.8%

Exponential Worse by 0.4 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 44 (BK-M18B-44) 112 103 9

8.7%

-15.4%

HoltWinters Better by 6.7 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 48 (BK-M18B-48) 226 208 18

8.7%

36.7%

HoltWinters Better by 28.0 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 52 (BK-M18B-52) 9 9 0

0.0%

43.8%

HoltWinters Better by 43.8 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 40 (BK-M18S-40) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Mountain-500 Silver, 42 (BK-M18S-42) 24 21 3

14.3%

7.7%

HoltWinters Worse by 6.6 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 44 (BK-M18S-44) 298 299 -1

-0.3%

-3.1%

Regression Better by 2.8 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 48 (BK-M18S-48) 15 15 0

0.0%

1.9%

HoltWinters Better by 1.9 %pts
Patch Kit/8 Patches (PK-7098) 20 16 4

25.0%

47.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 22.3 %pts
Racing Socks, L (SO-R809-L) 24 26 -2

-7.7%

-12.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 4.3 %pts
Racing Socks, M (SO-R809-M) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Rear Brakes (RB-9231) 20 15 5

33.3%

12.5%

HoltWinters Worse by 20.8 %pts
Rear Derailleur (RD-2308) 462 382 80

20.9%

16.3%

HoltWinters Worse by 4.7 %pts
Road Bottle Cage (BC-R205) 19 17 2

11.8%

19.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 7.8 %pts
Road Tire Tube (TT-R982) 14 13 1

7.7%

39.9%

Regression Better by 32.2 %pts
Road-150 Red, 44 (BK-R93R-44) 5 5 0

0.0%

50.4%

HoltWinters Better by 50.4 %pts
Road-150 Red, 48 (BK-R93R-48) 2 2 0

0.0%

8.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 8.3 %pts
Road-150 Red, 52 (BK-R93R-52) 4 4 0

0.0%

-20.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 20.9 %pts
Road-150 Red, 62 (BK-R93R-62) 8 6 2

33.3%

1.8%

HoltWinters Worse by 31.5 %pts
Road-250 Black, 44 (BK-R89B-44) 355 388 -33

-8.5%

-13.1%

Exponential Better by 4.6 %pts
Road-250 Black, 48 (BK-R89B-48) 44 40 4

10.0%

7.3%

Exponential Worse by 2.7 %pts
Road-250 Black, 52 (BK-R89B-52) 17 13 4

30.8%

51.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 20.8 %pts
Road-250 Black, 58 (BK-R89B-58) 12 13 -1

-7.7%

24.5%

HoltWinters Better by 16.9 %pts
Road-250 Red, 44 (BK-R89R-44) 19 20 -1

-5.0%

-4.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 1.0 %pts
Road-250 Red, 48 (BK-R89R-48) 173 195 -22

-11.3%

-48.7%

HoltWinters Better by 37.4 %pts
Road-250 Red, 52 (BK-R89R-52) 3 3 0

0.0%

30.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 30.8 %pts
Road-250 Red, 58 (BK-R89R-58) 3 3 0

0.0%

-3.5%

HoltWinters Better by 3.5 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R79Y-40) 15 17 -2

-11.8%

-6.2%

HoltWinters Worse by 5.6 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R79Y-42) 11 12 -1

-8.3%

-9.0%

HoltWinters Better by 0.6 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R79Y-44) 10 7 3

42.9%

127.6%

HoltWinters Better by 84.8 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R79Y-48) 13 13 0

0.0%

-45.2%

HoltWinters Better by 45.2 %pts
Road-450 Red, 44 (BK-R68R-44) 6 6 0

0.0%

-7.6%

HoltWinters Better by 7.6 %pts
Road-450 Red, 48 (BK-R68R-48) 12 11 1

9.1%

-4.1%

Regression Worse by 5.0 %pts
Road-450 Red, 52 (BK-R68R-52) 15 15 0

0.0%

-5.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 5.6 %pts
Road-450 Red, 58 (BK-R68R-58) 21 22 -1

-4.5%

-8.3%

Exponential Better by 3.8 %pts
Road-450 Red, 60 (BK-R68R-60) 5 5 0

0.0%

-5.0%

HoltWinters Better by 5.0 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 38 (BK-R64Y-38) 5 5 0

0.0%

-1.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 1.9 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R64Y-40) 13 12 1

8.3%

10.5%

Exponential Better by 2.1 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R64Y-42) 4 4 0

0.0%

22.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 22.2 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R64Y-44) 21 18 3

16.7%

-30.3%

HoltWinters Better by 13.6 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R64Y-48) 6 7 -1

-14.3%

2.8%

HoltWinters Worse by 11.5 %pts
Road-650 Black, 44 (BK-R50B-44) 3 3 0

0.0%

-56.5%

HoltWinters Better by 56.5 %pts
Road-650 Black, 48 (BK-R50B-48) 1 1 0

0.0%

51.5%

HoltWinters Better by 51.5 %pts
Road-650 Black, 58 (BK-R50B-58) 21 18 3

16.7%

-14.9%

HoltWinters Worse by 1.8 %pts
Road-650 Black, 60 (BK-R50B-60) 15 16 -1

-6.3%

-16.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 10.0 %pts
Road-650 Black, 62 (BK-R50B-62) 19 21 -2

-9.5%

-22.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 13.1 %pts
Road-650 Red, 44 (BK-R50R-44) 16 19 -3

-15.8%

2.5%

HoltWinters Worse by 13.3 %pts
Road-650 Red, 48 (BK-R50R-48) 17 14 3

21.4%

62.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 41.5 %pts
Road-650 Red, 52 (BK-R50R-52) 114 105 9

8.6%

-2.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 6.2 %pts
Road-650 Red, 58 (BK-R50R-58) 13 15 -2

-13.3%

-24.4%

Exponential Better by 11.0 %pts
Road-650 Red, 60 (BK-R50R-60) 3 3 0

0.0%

-2.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 2.2 %pts
Road-650 Red, 62 (BK-R50R-62) 408 362 46

12.7%

-25.3%

HoltWinters Better by 12.6 %pts
Road-750 Black, 44 (BK-R19B-44) 20 22 -2

-9.1%

-30.3%

HoltWinters Better by 21.2 %pts
Road-750 Black, 48 (BK-R19B-48) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Road-750 Black, 52 (BK-R19B-52) 2 2 0

0.0%

-21.8%

HoltWinters Better by 21.8 %pts
Road-750 Black, 58 (BK-R19B-58) 16 11 5

45.5%

4.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 41.0 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, L (SJ-0194-L) 8 9 -1

-11.1%

-1.2%

Regression Worse by 9.9 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, M (SJ-0194-M) 2 2 0

0.0%

54.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 54.5 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, S (SJ-0194-S) 62 61 1

1.6%

-1.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 0.6 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, XL (SJ-0194-X) 32 33 -1

-3.0%

-5.2%

Exponential Better by 2.2 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Black (HL-U509) 12 8 4

50.0%

63.3%

Exponential Better by 13.3 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Blue (HL-U509-B) 1 1 0

0.0%

23.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 23.1 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Red (HL-U509-R) 3 3 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Taillights - Battery-Powered (LT-T990) 6 6 0

0.0%

-30.1%

HoltWinters Better by 30.1 %pts
Touring Front Wheel (FW-T905) 14 15 -1

-6.7%

-33.8%

HoltWinters Better by 27.1 %pts
Touring Pedal (PD-T852) 10 12 -2

-16.7%

-24.5%

HoltWinters Better by 7.8 %pts
Touring Rear Wheel (RW-T905) 35 34 1

2.9%

-9.7%

HoltWinters Better by 6.8 %pts
Touring Tire (TI-T723) 27 23 4

17.4%

22.7%

HoltWinters Better by 5.3 %pts
Touring Tire Tube (TT-T092) 22 21 1

4.8%

-8.5%

Regression Better by 3.8 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 46 (BK-T79U-46) 15 14 1

7.1%

29.1%

HoltWinters Better by 21.9 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 50 (BK-T79U-50) 5 5 0

0.0%

21.5%

HoltWinters Better by 21.5 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 54 (BK-T79U-54) 8 8 0

0.0%

22.4%

Regression Better by 22.4 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 60 (BK-T79U-60) 58 55 3

5.5%

-2.4%

Regression Worse by 3.0 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 46 (BK-T79Y-46) 12 12 0

0.0%

5.6%

Regression Better by 5.6 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T79Y-50) 20 23 -3

-13.0%

-36.4%

HoltWinters Better by 23.3 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T79Y-54) 58 48 10

20.8%

10.2%

HoltWinters Worse by 10.7 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 60 (BK-T79Y-60) 16 15 1

6.7%

3.8%

Regression Worse by 2.9 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 46 (BK-T44U-46) 21 22 -1

-4.5%

-23.4%

HoltWinters Better by 18.8 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 50 (BK-T44U-50) 29 26 3

11.5%

-26.0%

Regression Better by 14.5 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 54 (BK-T44U-54) 5 5 0

0.0%

-19.7%

Regression Better by 19.7 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 60 (BK-T44U-60) 39 40 -1

-2.5%

-16.8%

HoltWinters Better by 14.3 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 44 (BK-T18U-44) 20 18 2

11.1%

15.4%

Regression Better by 4.3 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 50 (BK-T18U-50) 27 18 9

50.0%

49.3%

HoltWinters Worse by 0.7 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 54 (BK-T18U-54) 19 20 -1

-5.0%

-15.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 10.0 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 58 (BK-T18U-58) 13 13 0

0.0%

28.5%

HoltWinters Better by 28.5 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 62 (BK-T18U-62) 11 10 1

10.0%

12.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 2.1 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 44 (BK-T18Y-44) 371 369 2

0.5%

-20.7%

HoltWinters Better by 20.2 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T18Y-50) 83 91 -8

-8.8%

-37.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 28.7 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T18Y-54) 37 33 4

12.1%

-9.3%

HoltWinters Worse by 2.9 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 58 (BK-T18Y-58) 3 3 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Touring-3000 Yellow, 62 (BK-T18Y-62) 242 221 21

9.5%

24.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 14.6 %pts
Touring-Panniers, Large (PA-T100) 33 23 10

43.5%

36.9%

Exponential Worse by 6.6 %pts
Water Bottle - 30 oz. (WB-H098) 17 15 2

13.3%

40.1%

Regression Better by 26.7 %pts
Women's Mountain Shorts, M (SH-W890-M) 9 7 2

28.6%

55.8%

HoltWinters Better by 27.2 %pts
Women's Mountain Shorts, S (SH-W890-S) 16 15 1

6.7%

-7.8%

Regression Better by 1.1 %pts
Women's Tights, L (TG-W091-L) 495 483 12

2.5%

-12.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 10.3 %pts
Women's Tights, M (TG-W091-M) 296 290 6

2.1%

6.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 4.3 %pts
Women's Tights, S (TG-W091-S) 8 8 0

0.0%

-18.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 18.0 %pts
Total 14,644 14,098 546 3.9% -3.1%   Better in 211 out of 299 items (70.6%)
Weighted Average % Error 13.5% Weighted Average % Error (Alt) 12.4% Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) 9.9% Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) 6.6
Weighted Average % Error-Statistics 20.5% Weighted Average % Error (Alt)-Statistics 6.9% Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)-Statistics 20.8% Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)-Statistics 9.7

Value Added Reseller(Germany) - Prepared in Jul - Period of sale: Aug
Forecast Actual Variance Percent Error Stats Pct Error Best Algorithm Human vs. Statistics
All-Purpose Bike Stand (ST-1401) 84 93 -9

-9.7%

30.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 21.1 %pts
AWC Logo Cap (CA-1098) 62 65 -3

-4.6%

-9.3%

Regression Better by 4.7 %pts
Bike Wash - Dissolver (CL-9009) 21 21 0

0.0%

-12.9%

Exponential Better by 12.9 %pts
Chain (CH-0234) 11 10 1

10.0%

41.3%

HoltWinters Better by 31.3 %pts
Classic Vest, L (VE-C304-L) 12 10 2

20.0%

50.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 30.4 %pts
Classic Vest, M (VE-C304-M) 41 38 3

7.9%

16.4%

HoltWinters Better by 8.5 %pts
Classic Vest, S (VE-C304-S) 15 16 -1

-6.3%

-22.3%

Exponential Better by 16.1 %pts
Fender Set - Mountain (FE-6654) 29 19 10

52.6%

6.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 46.1 %pts
Front Brakes (FB-9873) 21 19 2

10.5%

-1.1%

HoltWinters Worse by 9.4 %pts
Front Derailleur (FD-2342) 18 17 1

5.9%

13.2%

Exponential Better by 7.3 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, L (GL-F110-L) 182 196 -14

-7.1%

-12.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 5.6 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, M (GL-F110-M) 16 18 -2

-11.1%

-22.1%

Regression Better by 11.0 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, S (GL-F110-S) 15 12 3

25.0%

27.5%

HoltWinters Better by 2.5 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, L (GL-H102-L) 4 4 0

0.0%

-20.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 20.2 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, M (GL-H102-M) 51 37 14

37.8%

14.5%

HoltWinters Worse by 23.3 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, S (GL-H102-S) 35 27 8

29.6%

30.4%

Regression Better by 0.8 %pts
Headlights - Dual-Beam (LT-H902) 27 28 -1

-3.6%

13.2%

HoltWinters Better by 9.6 %pts
Headlights - Weatherproof (LT-H903) 8 5 3

60.0%

115.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 55.2 %pts
Hitch Rack - 4-Bike (RA-H123) 23 20 3

15.0%

34.9%

Regression Better by 19.9 %pts
HL Bottom Bracket (BB-9108) 23 25 -2

-8.0%

17.5%

HoltWinters Better by 9.5 %pts
HL Crankset (CS-9183) 32 29 3

10.3%

-5.0%

HoltWinters Worse by 5.3 %pts
HL Fork (FK-9939) 13 13 0

0.0%

-7.4%

Exponential Better by 7.4 %pts
HL Headset (HS-3479) 38 27 11

40.7%

16.4%

Exponential Worse by 24.3 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M94B-38) 8 8 0

0.0%

31.5%

HoltWinters Better by 31.5 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M94B-42) 14 12 2

16.7%

5.6%

HoltWinters Worse by 11.1 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M94B-44) 10 10 0

0.0%

12.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 12.8 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 46 (FR-M94B-46) 5 5 0

0.0%

-0.2%

HoltWinters Better by 0.2 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M94B-48) 16 16 0

0.0%

20.0%

Exponential Better by 20.0 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 38 (FR-M94S-38) 21 18 3

16.7%

-38.0%

HoltWinters Better by 21.3 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M94S-42) 14 14 0

0.0%

-50.1%

HoltWinters Better by 50.1 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M94S-44) 16 16 0

0.0%

-31.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 31.3 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 46 (FR-M94S-46) 23 21 2

9.5%

-24.3%

HoltWinters Better by 14.8 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M94S-52) 20 19 1

5.3%

7.7%

Exponential Better by 2.4 %pts
HL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M928) 18 19 -1

-5.3%

-35.4%

HoltWinters Better by 30.1 %pts
HL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M918) 19 17 2

11.8%

14.9%

Exponential Better by 3.1 %pts
HL Mountain Pedal (PD-M562) 16 15 1

6.7%

61.1%

HoltWinters Better by 54.4 %pts
HL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M928) 15 14 1

7.1%

10.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 3.4 %pts
HL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M940) 22 19 3

15.8%

-3.4%

HoltWinters Worse by 12.4 %pts
HL Mountain Tire (TI-M823) 11 10 1

10.0%

13.3%

HoltWinters Better by 3.3 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R92B-44) 40 43 -3

-7.0%

7.2%

Regression Better by 0.2 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R92B-48) 165 187 -22

-11.8%

-46.9%

HoltWinters Better by 35.1 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R92B-52) 417 251 166

66.1%

43.1%

HoltWinters Worse by 23.1 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R92B-58) 16 15 1

6.7%

-34.2%

HoltWinters Better by 27.5 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R92B-62) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

LY+YOY Growth% The same
HL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R92R-44) 359 426 -67

-15.7%

-29.8%

HoltWinters Better by 14.1 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R92R-48) 24 24 0

0.0%

-21.2%

HoltWinters Better by 21.2 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R92R-52) 18 19 -1

-5.3%

-14.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 8.8 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 56 (FR-R92R-56) 22 21 1

4.8%

-27.5%

HoltWinters Better by 22.7 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R92R-58) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
HL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R92R-62) 133 83 50

60.2%

45.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 15.0 %pts
HL Road Front Wheel (FW-R820) 38 29 9

31.0%

23.5%

HoltWinters Worse by 7.6 %pts
HL Road Handlebars (HB-R956) 19 18 1

5.6%

15.1%

Exponential Better by 9.5 %pts
HL Road Pedal (PD-R853) 36 33 3

9.1%

0.0%

HoltWinters Worse by 9.1 %pts
HL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R820) 18 15 3

20.0%

11.0%

Regression Worse by 9.0 %pts
HL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R995) 16 11 5

45.5%

41.1%

Regression Worse by 4.3 %pts
HL Road Tire (TI-R982) 20 14 6

42.9%

16.8%

HoltWinters Worse by 26.0 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 46 (FR-T98U-46) 18 13 5

38.5%

15.0%

Exponential Worse by 23.5 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T98U-50) 5 5 0

0.0%

-7.7%

Regression Better by 7.7 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T98U-54) 18 15 3

20.0%

23.5%

Regression Better by 3.5 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 60 (FR-T98U-60) 413 391 22

5.6%

-4.6%

Regression Worse by 1.1 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 46 (FR-T98Y-46) 145 136 9

6.6%

-5.9%

Regression Worse by 0.7 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T98Y-50) 8 9 -1

-11.1%

-27.9%

HoltWinters Better by 16.8 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T98Y-54) 189 188 1

0.5%

12.0%

HoltWinters Better by 11.4 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 60 (FR-T98Y-60) 4 4 0

0.0%

25.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 25.0 %pts
HL Touring Handlebars (HB-T928) 20 17 3

17.6%

3.3%

HoltWinters Worse by 14.3 %pts
HL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T924) 13 12 1

8.3%

-24.8%

HoltWinters Better by 16.4 %pts
Hydration Pack - 70 oz. (HY-1023-70) 7 8 -1

-12.5%

19.8%

HoltWinters Better by 7.3 %pts
LL Bottom Bracket (BB-7421) 21 19 2

10.5%

60.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 49.8 %pts
LL Crankset (CS-4759) 15 17 -2

-11.8%

-40.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 28.2 %pts
LL Fork (FK-1639) 21 19 2

10.5%

-18.8%

HoltWinters Better by 8.2 %pts
LL Headset (HS-0296) 24 22 2

9.1%

11.0%

HoltWinters Better by 1.9 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M21B-40) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M21B-42) 29 26 3

11.5%

-15.3%

HoltWinters Better by 3.7 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M21B-44) 4 4 0

0.0%

-16.1%

HoltWinters Better by 16.1 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M21B-48) 4 4 0

0.0%

81.8%

HoltWinters Better by 81.8 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 52 (FR-M21B-52) 200 165 35

21.2%

-35.1%

HoltWinters Better by 13.9 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 40 (FR-M21S-40) 206 145 61

42.1%

35.5%

Regression Worse by 6.6 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M21S-42) 12 9 3

33.3%

-8.0%

Regression Worse by 25.3 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M21S-44) 184 195 -11

-5.6%

-28.2%

HoltWinters Better by 22.5 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M21S-48) 2 2 0

0.0%

50.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 50.0 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 52 (FR-M21S-52) 257 284 -27

-9.5%

-29.1%

HoltWinters Better by 19.6 %pts
LL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M423) 7 6 1

16.7%

10.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 6.2 %pts
LL Mountain Pedal (PD-M282) 12 8 4

50.0%

38.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 11.5 %pts
LL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M423) 8 8 0

0.0%

29.5%

Regression Better by 29.5 %pts
LL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M236) 1 1 0

0.0%

-100.0%

Regression Better by 100.0 %pts
LL Mountain Tire (TI-M267) 15 15 0

0.0%

-55.9%

HoltWinters Better by 55.9 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R38B-44) 30 28 2

7.1%

-8.7%

Regression Better by 1.5 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R38B-48) 6 4 2

50.0%

115.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 65.0 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R38B-52) 9 7 2

28.6%

4.7%

HoltWinters Worse by 23.8 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R38B-58) 26 28 -2

-7.1%

17.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 10.7 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 60 (FR-R38B-60) 22 21 1

4.8%

16.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 11.6 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R38B-62) 9 9 0

0.0%

-0.8%

Regression Better by 0.8 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R38R-44) 285 315 -30

-9.5%

7.9%

Regression Worse by 1.6 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R38R-48) 16 16 0

0.0%

23.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 23.0 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R38R-52) 27 19 8

42.1%

12.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 29.3 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R38R-58) 290 159 131

82.4%

76.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 5.9 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R38R-60) 231 191 40

20.9%

39.9%

HoltWinters Better by 18.9 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R38R-62) 12 10 2

20.0%

0.5%

Regression Worse by 19.5 %pts
LL Road Front Wheel (FW-R623) 4 4 0

0.0%

60.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 60.3 %pts
LL Road Handlebars (HB-R504) 4 4 0

0.0%

-11.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 11.9 %pts
LL Road Pedal (PD-R347) 36 36 0

0.0%

-6.8%

Exponential Better by 6.8 %pts
LL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R623) 22 22 0

0.0%

16.8%

HoltWinters Better by 16.8 %pts
LL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R581) 528 554 -26

-4.7%

-43.4%

HoltWinters Better by 38.8 %pts
LL Road Tire (TI-R092) 18 19 -1

-5.3%

22.6%

Regression Better by 17.3 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 44 (FR-T67U-44) 21 22 -1

-4.5%

-8.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 4.1 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T67U-50) 16 16 0

0.0%

-4.2%

Regression Better by 4.2 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T67U-54) 38 40 -2

-5.0%

2.1%

Regression Worse by 2.9 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 58 (FR-T67U-58) 3 3 0

0.0%

-2.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 2.9 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 62 (FR-T67U-62) 23 19 4

21.1%

3.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 17.5 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 44 (FR-T67Y-44) 13 8 5

62.5%

63.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 0.9 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T67Y-50) 24 23 1

4.3%

-13.7%

Exponential Better by 9.4 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T67Y-54) 248 267 -19

-7.1%

-46.1%

HoltWinters Better by 39.0 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 58 (FR-T67Y-58) 14 14 0

0.0%

-5.9%

Regression Better by 5.9 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 62 (FR-T67Y-62) 11 11 0

0.0%

25.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 25.3 %pts
LL Touring Handlebars (HB-T721) 14 15 -1

-6.7%

-10.4%

Regression Better by 3.7 %pts
LL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T312) 10 10 0

0.0%

23.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 23.7 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, L (LJ-0192-L) 19 20 -1

-5.0%

-14.1%

Exponential Better by 9.1 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, M (LJ-0192-M) 259 206 53

25.7%

34.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 8.4 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, S (LJ-0192-S) 15 16 -1

-6.3%

-26.2%

HoltWinters Better by 20.0 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, XL (LJ-0192-X) 10 11 -1

-9.1%

-2.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 6.9 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, L (SB-M891-L) 24 21 3

14.3%

-14.4%

HoltWinters Better by 0.1 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, M (SB-M891-M) 20 19 1

5.3%

-4.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 0.4 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, S (SB-M891-S) 65 68 -3

-4.4%

-14.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 9.7 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, L (SH-M897-L) 25 27 -2

-7.4%

-30.3%

HoltWinters Better by 22.9 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, M (SH-M897-M) 25 23 2

8.7%

-8.7%

LY+YOY Growth% The same
Men's Sports Shorts, S (SH-M897-S) 204 164 40

24.4%

11.5%

HoltWinters Worse by 12.8 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, XL (SH-M897-X) 3 3 0

0.0%

-34.8%

HoltWinters Better by 34.8 %pts
Minipump (PU-0452) 277 168 109

64.9%

48.8%

HoltWinters Worse by 16.1 %pts
ML Bottom Bracket (BB-8107) 95 91 4

4.4%

23.1%

Exponential Better by 18.7 %pts
ML Crankset (CS-6583) 16 14 2

14.3%

24.4%

HoltWinters Better by 10.1 %pts
ML Fork (FK-5136) 23 23 0

0.0%

-34.4%

HoltWinters Better by 34.4 %pts
ML Headset (HS-2451) 9 9 0

0.0%

-26.6%

HoltWinters Better by 26.6 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M63B-38) 17 17 0

0.0%

29.5%

HoltWinters Better by 29.5 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M63B-40) 24 21 3

14.3%

-8.2%

HoltWinters Worse by 6.1 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M63B-44) 33 36 -3

-8.3%

-15.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 7.1 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M63B-48) 413 325 88

27.1%

5.8%

HoltWinters Worse by 21.3 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 38 (FR-M63S-38) 8 6 2

33.3%

29.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 3.7 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 40 (FR-M63S-40) 18 19 -1

-5.3%

-28.4%

Regression Better by 23.1 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 42 (FR-M63S-42) 27 26 1

3.8%

14.6%

HoltWinters Better by 10.8 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 46 (FR-M63S-46) 366 281 85

30.2%

47.2%

Exponential Better by 17.0 %pts
ML Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M762) 29 25 4

16.0%

4.4%

HoltWinters Worse by 11.6 %pts
ML Mountain Handlebars (HB-M763) 31 32 -1

-3.1%

-32.0%

HoltWinters Better by 28.8 %pts
ML Mountain Pedal (PD-M340) 8 7 1

14.3%

9.4%

HoltWinters Worse by 4.9 %pts
ML Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M762) 7 7 0

0.0%

-12.2%

HoltWinters Better by 12.2 %pts
ML Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M798) 7 7 0

0.0%

-32.4%

Exponential Better by 32.4 %pts
ML Mountain Tire (TI-M602) 180 169 11

6.5%

-34.8%

HoltWinters Better by 28.3 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R72R-44) 33 34 -1

-2.9%

-10.4%

HoltWinters Better by 7.5 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R72R-48) 336 381 -45

-11.8%

-23.2%

Regression Better by 11.4 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R72R-52) 204 226 -22

-9.7%

3.3%

HoltWinters Worse by 6.4 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R72R-58) 13 12 1

8.3%

-43.5%

HoltWinters Better by 35.2 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R72R-60) 23 24 -1

-4.2%

-26.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 22.4 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 38 (FR-R72Y-38) 12 11 1

9.1%

36.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 27.3 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 40 (FR-R72Y-40) 20 15 5

33.3%

55.8%

HoltWinters Better by 22.4 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 42 (FR-R72Y-42) 21 19 2

10.5%

21.4%

HoltWinters Better by 10.9 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 44 (FR-R72Y-44) 36 27 9

33.3%

50.6%

HoltWinters Better by 17.3 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 48 (FR-R72Y-48) 1 1 0

0.0%

165.4%

HoltWinters Better by 165.4 %pts
ML Road Front Wheel (FW-R762) 246 198 48

24.2%

1.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 22.3 %pts
ML Road Handlebars (HB-R720) 4 4 0

0.0%

5.0%

HoltWinters Better by 5.0 %pts
ML Road Pedal (PD-R563) 268 292 -24

-8.2%

-26.5%

HoltWinters Better by 18.3 %pts
ML Road Rear Wheel (RW-R762) 14 14 0

0.0%

5.6%

HoltWinters Better by 5.6 %pts
ML Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R908) 4 4 0

0.0%

-21.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 21.2 %pts
ML Road Tire (TI-R628) 20 21 -1

-4.8%

-34.1%

HoltWinters Better by 29.3 %pts
ML Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T762) 12 10 2

20.0%

31.8%

Regression Better by 11.8 %pts
Mountain Bike Socks, L (SO-B909-L) 11 11 0

0.0%

4.7%

HoltWinters Better by 4.7 %pts
Mountain Bike Socks, M (SO-B909-M) 25 21 4

19.0%

7.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 11.7 %pts
Mountain Bottle Cage (BC-M005) 23 16 7

43.8%

2.7%

HoltWinters Worse by 41.1 %pts
Mountain Pump (PU-M044) 22 23 -1

-4.3%

-33.6%

HoltWinters Better by 29.3 %pts
Mountain Tire Tube (TT-M928) 37 29 8

27.6%

35.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 7.9 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 38 (BK-M82B-38) 4 4 0

0.0%

23.7%

HoltWinters Better by 23.7 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 42 (BK-M82B-42) 399 398 1

0.3%

-10.3%

Regression Better by 10.0 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 44 (BK-M82B-44) 42 41 1

2.4%

-5.5%

HoltWinters Better by 3.1 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 48 (BK-M82B-48) 9 8 1

12.5%

-33.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 20.7 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 38 (BK-M82S-38) 8 8 0

0.0%

-3.6%

HoltWinters Better by 3.6 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 42 (BK-M82S-42) 20 20 0

0.0%

-54.2%

HoltWinters Better by 54.2 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 44 (BK-M82S-44) 19 19 0

0.0%

-10.9%

Regression Better by 10.9 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 48 (BK-M82S-48) 3 3 0

0.0%

-39.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 39.4 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 38 (BK-M68B-38) 23 21 2

9.5%

-14.3%

HoltWinters Better by 4.8 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 42 (BK-M68B-42) 25 24 1

4.2%

17.4%

HoltWinters Better by 13.3 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 46 (BK-M68B-46) 15 17 -2

-11.8%

-27.2%

Exponential Better by 15.4 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 38 (BK-M68S-38) 182 139 43

30.9%

34.9%

Exponential Better by 4.0 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 42 (BK-M68S-42) 12 12 0

0.0%

53.6%

HoltWinters Better by 53.6 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 46 (BK-M68S-46) 12 12 0

0.0%

-3.5%

Exponential Better by 3.5 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 38 (BK-M47B-38) 34 38 -4

-10.5%

-39.2%

HoltWinters Better by 28.7 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 40 (BK-M47B-40) 570 647 -77

-11.9%

-23.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 11.8 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 44 (BK-M47B-44) 10 10 0

0.0%

4.5%

HoltWinters Better by 4.5 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 48 (BK-M47B-48) 210 188 22

11.7%

-9.4%

HoltWinters Worse by 2.3 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 38 (BK-M38S-38) 29 24 5

20.8%

-7.3%

HoltWinters Worse by 13.5 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 40 (BK-M38S-40) 355 378 -23

-6.1%

19.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 13.4 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 42 (BK-M38S-42) 17 10 7

70.0%

124.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 54.7 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 46 (BK-M38S-46) 28 26 2

7.7%

49.1%

HoltWinters Better by 41.4 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 40 (BK-M18B-40) 89 91 -2

-2.2%

24.6%

Regression Better by 22.4 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 42 (BK-M18B-42) 22 21 1

4.8%

18.2%

Regression Better by 13.4 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 44 (BK-M18B-44) 240 166 74

44.6%

-3.4%

HoltWinters Worse by 41.1 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 48 (BK-M18B-48) 123 160 -37

-23.1%

-11.1%

HoltWinters Worse by 12.0 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 52 (BK-M18B-52) 21 20 1

5.0%

20.4%

Regression Better by 15.4 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 40 (BK-M18S-40) 17 17 0

0.0%

-4.4%

Regression Better by 4.4 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 42 (BK-M18S-42) 223 264 -41

-15.5%

-24.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 9.3 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 44 (BK-M18S-44) 33 34 -1

-2.9%

-10.5%

HoltWinters Better by 7.5 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 48 (BK-M18S-48) 18 15 3

20.0%

3.7%

HoltWinters Worse by 16.3 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 52 (BK-M18S-52) 27 24 3

12.5%

-4.6%

Exponential Worse by 7.9 %pts
Patch Kit/8 Patches (PK-7098) 343 250 93

37.2%

19.4%

HoltWinters Worse by 17.8 %pts
Racing Socks, L (SO-R809-L) 12 13 -1

-7.7%

-42.7%

HoltWinters Better by 35.0 %pts
Racing Socks, M (SO-R809-M) 9 10 -1

-10.0%

-30.2%

Regression Better by 20.2 %pts
Rear Brakes (RB-9231) 16 14 2

14.3%

1.6%

Exponential Worse by 12.7 %pts
Rear Derailleur (RD-2308) 63 72 -9

-12.5%

-23.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 10.9 %pts
Road Bottle Cage (BC-R205) 13 14 -1

-7.1%

-22.5%

HoltWinters Better by 15.4 %pts
Road Tire Tube (TT-R982) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Road-150 Red, 44 (BK-R93R-44) 22 23 -1

-4.3%

1.5%

Exponential Worse by 2.9 %pts
Road-150 Red, 48 (BK-R93R-48) 22 27 -5

-18.5%

-12.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 5.9 %pts
Road-150 Red, 52 (BK-R93R-52) 2 2 0

0.0%

-11.6%

Exponential Better by 11.6 %pts
Road-150 Red, 56 (BK-R93R-56) 14 12 2

16.7%

19.4%

HoltWinters Better by 2.7 %pts
Road-150 Red, 62 (BK-R93R-62) 14 15 -1

-6.7%

-1.9%

HoltWinters Worse by 4.7 %pts
Road-250 Black, 44 (BK-R89B-44) 305 172 133

77.3%

59.5%

Exponential Worse by 17.8 %pts
Road-250 Black, 48 (BK-R89B-48) 355 390 -35

-9.0%

0.3%

HoltWinters Worse by 8.7 %pts
Road-250 Black, 52 (BK-R89B-52) 10 8 2

25.0%

-25.8%

HoltWinters Better by 0.8 %pts
Road-250 Black, 58 (BK-R89B-58) 3 3 0

0.0%

112.3%

HoltWinters Better by 112.3 %pts
Road-250 Red, 44 (BK-R89R-44) 576 511 65

12.7%

7.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 4.8 %pts
Road-250 Red, 48 (BK-R89R-48) 570 568 2

0.4%

-0.7%

Exponential Better by 0.4 %pts
Road-250 Red, 52 (BK-R89R-52) 12 8 4

50.0%

-6.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 44.0 %pts
Road-250 Red, 58 (BK-R89R-58) 17 15 2

13.3%

-8.9%

Exponential Worse by 4.5 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R79Y-40) 17 13 4

30.8%

-23.2%

HoltWinters Worse by 7.5 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R79Y-42) 19 19 0

0.0%

-25.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 25.2 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R79Y-44) 13 15 -2

-13.3%

-24.8%

HoltWinters Better by 11.4 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R79Y-48) 25 18 7

38.9%

27.9%

Regression Worse by 11.0 %pts
Road-450 Red, 44 (BK-R68R-44) 21 21 0

0.0%

-10.0%

HoltWinters Better by 10.0 %pts
Road-450 Red, 48 (BK-R68R-48) 74 73 1

1.4%

36.6%

HoltWinters Better by 35.2 %pts
Road-450 Red, 52 (BK-R68R-52) 16 17 -1

-5.9%

-17.4%

Exponential Better by 11.6 %pts
Road-450 Red, 58 (BK-R68R-58) 42 36 6

16.7%

30.3%

Regression Better by 13.7 %pts
Road-450 Red, 60 (BK-R68R-60) 3 3 0

0.0%

-27.3%

Regression Better by 27.3 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 38 (BK-R64Y-38) 5 5 0

0.0%

-22.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 22.9 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R64Y-40) 16 13 3

23.1%

11.4%

Regression Worse by 11.7 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R64Y-42) 14 15 -1

-6.7%

-14.6%

Regression Better by 7.9 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R64Y-44) 10 11 -1

-9.1%

-0.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 8.3 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R64Y-48) 37 39 -2

-5.1%

-22.8%

Exponential Better by 17.7 %pts
Road-650 Black, 44 (BK-R50B-44) 8 7 1

14.3%

-10.6%

Regression Worse by 3.6 %pts
Road-650 Black, 48 (BK-R50B-48) 7 7 0

0.0%

3.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 3.7 %pts
Road-650 Black, 52 (BK-R50B-52) 10 10 0

0.0%

32.1%

HoltWinters Better by 32.1 %pts
Road-650 Black, 58 (BK-R50B-58) 20 17 3

17.6%

-7.1%

HoltWinters Worse by 10.6 %pts
Road-650 Black, 60 (BK-R50B-60) 26 20 6

30.0%

33.9%

Exponential Better by 3.9 %pts
Road-650 Black, 62 (BK-R50B-62) 29 26 3

11.5%

1.3%

Exponential Worse by 10.2 %pts
Road-650 Red, 44 (BK-R50R-44) 14 14 0

0.0%

7.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 7.7 %pts
Road-650 Red, 48 (BK-R50R-48) 3 3 0

0.0%

-100.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 100.0 %pts
Road-650 Red, 52 (BK-R50R-52) 34 34 0

0.0%

-4.5%

HoltWinters Better by 4.5 %pts
Road-650 Red, 58 (BK-R50R-58) 7 5 2

40.0%

31.4%

HoltWinters Worse by 8.6 %pts
Road-650 Red, 60 (BK-R50R-60) 28 30 -2

-6.7%

-5.9%

Regression Worse by 0.8 %pts
Road-650 Red, 62 (BK-R50R-62) 369 319 50

15.7%

3.9%

Exponential Worse by 11.8 %pts
Road-750 Black, 44 (BK-R19B-44) 33 32 1

3.1%

13.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 10.2 %pts
Road-750 Black, 48 (BK-R19B-48) 2 2 0

0.0%

15.0%

HoltWinters Better by 15.0 %pts
Road-750 Black, 52 (BK-R19B-52) 13 13 0

0.0%

29.2%

Regression Better by 29.2 %pts
Road-750 Black, 58 (BK-R19B-58) 19 16 3

18.8%

31.2%

HoltWinters Better by 12.5 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, L (SJ-0194-L) 15 11 4

36.4%

83.3%

HoltWinters Better by 47.0 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, M (SJ-0194-M) 3 3 0

0.0%

2.8%

HoltWinters Better by 2.8 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, S (SJ-0194-S) 214 273 -59

-21.6%

-32.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 11.3 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, XL (SJ-0194-X) 14 9 5

55.6%

69.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 14.1 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Black (HL-U509) 34 35 -1

-2.9%

-14.8%

Regression Better by 12.0 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Blue (HL-U509-B) 3 3 0

0.0%

-29.0%

HoltWinters Better by 29.0 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Red (HL-U509-R) 38 27 11

40.7%

26.4%

HoltWinters Worse by 14.3 %pts
Taillights - Battery-Powered (LT-T990) 13 13 0

0.0%

23.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 23.0 %pts
Touring Front Wheel (FW-T905) 18 19 -1

-5.3%

32.0%

HoltWinters Better by 26.7 %pts
Touring Pedal (PD-T852) 23 23 0

0.0%

-31.4%

HoltWinters Better by 31.4 %pts
Touring Rear Wheel (RW-T905) 211 173 38

22.0%

18.7%

Exponential Worse by 3.3 %pts
Touring Tire (TI-T723) 27 23 4

17.4%

12.3%

HoltWinters Worse by 5.1 %pts
Touring Tire Tube (TT-T092) 22 25 -3

-12.0%

-27.3%

Exponential Better by 15.3 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 46 (BK-T79U-46) 3 3 0

0.0%

-19.3%

HoltWinters Better by 19.3 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 50 (BK-T79U-50) 19 13 6

46.2%

21.3%

HoltWinters Worse by 24.8 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 54 (BK-T79U-54) 6 5 1

20.0%

25.0%

HoltWinters Better by 5.0 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 60 (BK-T79U-60) 211 133 78

58.6%

33.4%

HoltWinters Worse by 25.3 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 46 (BK-T79Y-46) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Touring-1000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T79Y-50) 13 12 1

8.3%

11.0%

Regression Better by 2.6 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T79Y-54) 337 288 49

17.0%

10.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 6.9 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 60 (BK-T79Y-60) 4 3 1

33.3%

27.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 5.4 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 46 (BK-T44U-46) 1 1 0

0.0%

34.6%

HoltWinters Better by 34.6 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 50 (BK-T44U-50) 21 22 -1

-4.5%

-3.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 1.2 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 54 (BK-T44U-54) 17 16 1

6.3%

21.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 15.4 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 60 (BK-T44U-60) 14 14 0

0.0%

-24.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 24.4 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 44 (BK-T18U-44) 35 35 0

0.0%

-13.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 13.9 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 50 (BK-T18U-50) 9 10 -1

-10.0%

-2.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 7.3 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 54 (BK-T18U-54) 4 4 0

0.0%

2.8%

Exponential Better by 2.8 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 58 (BK-T18U-58) 24 21 3

14.3%

25.1%

Regression Better by 10.8 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 62 (BK-T18U-62) 7 6 1

16.7%

29.6%

HoltWinters Better by 12.9 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 44 (BK-T18Y-44) 725 653 72

11.0%

-0.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 10.7 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T18Y-50) 294 302 -8

-2.6%

-35.6%

Regression Better by 32.9 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T18Y-54) 691 626 65

10.4%

20.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 9.9 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 58 (BK-T18Y-58) 8 8 0

0.0%

-34.1%

HoltWinters Better by 34.1 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 62 (BK-T18Y-62) 234 231 3

1.3%

-9.9%

Regression Better by 8.6 %pts
Touring-Panniers, Large (PA-T100) 102 109 -7

-6.4%

-44.7%

HoltWinters Better by 38.3 %pts
Water Bottle - 30 oz. (WB-H098) 27 26 1

3.8%

-24.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 20.6 %pts
Women's Mountain Shorts, L (SH-W890-L) 21 19 2

10.5%

18.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 8.2 %pts
Women's Mountain Shorts, M (SH-W890-M) 13 12 1

8.3%

-17.8%

HoltWinters Better by 9.4 %pts
Women's Mountain Shorts, S (SH-W890-S) 6 5 1

20.0%

47.7%

HoltWinters Better by 27.7 %pts
Women's Tights, L (TG-W091-L) 205 117 88

75.2%

63.7%

Exponential Worse by 11.5 %pts
Women's Tights, M (TG-W091-M) 453 425 28

6.6%

-2.2%

Regression Worse by 4.4 %pts
Women's Tights, S (TG-W091-S) 15 16 -1

-6.3%

2.1%

HoltWinters Worse by 4.1 %pts
Total 20,194 18,682 1,512 8.1% -0.6%   Better in 212 out of 299 items (70.9%)
Weighted Average % Error 15.5% Weighted Average % Error (Alt) 13.8% Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) 12.9% Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) 9.9
Weighted Average % Error-Statistics 21.0% Weighted Average % Error (Alt)-Statistics 6.3% Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)-Statistics 23.3% Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)-Statistics 13.1

Warehouse(DE) - Prepared in Jul - Period of sale: Aug
Forecast Actual Variance Percent Error Stats Pct Error Best Algorithm Human vs. Statistics
All-Purpose Bike Stand (ST-1401) 203 207 -4

-1.9%

28.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 26.1 %pts
AWC Logo Cap (CA-1098) 5 5 0

0.0%

38.4%

Regression Better by 38.4 %pts
Bike Wash - Dissolver (CL-9009) 4 4 0

0.0%

7.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 7.5 %pts
Cable Lock (LO-C100) 4 4 0

0.0%

3.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 3.6 %pts
Chain (CH-0234) 5 5 0

0.0%

-32.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 32.3 %pts
Classic Vest, L (VE-C304-L) 1 1 0

0.0%

97.2%

HoltWinters Better by 97.2 %pts
Classic Vest, M (VE-C304-M) 12 13 -1

-7.7%

-25.0%

HoltWinters Better by 17.3 %pts
Classic Vest, S (VE-C304-S) 6 7 -1

-14.3%

-8.8%

Exponential Worse by 5.4 %pts
Fender Set - Mountain (FE-6654) 7 5 2

40.0%

50.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 10.0 %pts
Front Brakes (FB-9873) 1 1 0

0.0%

52.8%

HoltWinters Better by 52.8 %pts
Front Derailleur (FD-2342) 2 2 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Full-Finger Gloves, L (GL-F110-L) 196 213 -17

-8.0%

-38.0%

HoltWinters Better by 30.0 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, M (GL-F110-M) 4 4 0

0.0%

-15.4%

HoltWinters Better by 15.4 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, S (GL-F110-S) 10 11 -1

-9.1%

-29.7%

HoltWinters Better by 20.6 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, L (GL-H102-L) 3 3 0

0.0%

61.0%

HoltWinters Better by 61.0 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, M (GL-H102-M) 253 225 28

12.4%

4.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 7.7 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, S (GL-H102-S) 313 344 -31

-9.0%

-15.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 6.2 %pts
Headlights - Dual-Beam (LT-H902) 54 52 2

3.8%

16.8%

Exponential Better by 12.9 %pts
Headlights - Weatherproof (LT-H903) 10 8 2

25.0%

19.3%

Regression Worse by 5.7 %pts
Hitch Rack - 4-Bike (RA-H123) 5 4 1

25.0%

1.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 23.4 %pts
HL Bottom Bracket (BB-9108) 2 2 0

0.0%

8.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 8.0 %pts
HL Crankset (CS-9183) 3 3 0

0.0%

4.1%

HoltWinters Better by 4.1 %pts
HL Fork (FK-9939) 3 3 0

0.0%

3.4%

Regression Better by 3.4 %pts
HL Headset (HS-3479) 2 2 0

0.0%

12.4%

HoltWinters Better by 12.4 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M94B-38) 6 5 1

20.0%

24.1%

Regression Better by 4.1 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M94B-42) 2 2 0

0.0%

21.1%

HoltWinters Better by 21.1 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M94B-44) 11 13 -2

-15.4%

-11.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 4.0 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 46 (FR-M94B-46) 3 3 0

0.0%

24.0%

HoltWinters Better by 24.0 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M94B-48) 3 3 0

0.0%

6.1%

Exponential Better by 6.1 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 38 (FR-M94S-38) 2 2 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M94S-42) 2 2 0

0.0%

0.0%

LY+YOY Growth% The same
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 46 (FR-M94S-46) 9 11 -2

-18.2%

-9.8%

Regression Worse by 8.3 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M94S-52) 4 4 0

0.0%

15.7%

HoltWinters Better by 15.7 %pts
HL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M928) 16 13 3

23.1%

12.0%

Exponential Worse by 11.1 %pts
HL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M918) 20 19 1

5.3%

29.1%

HoltWinters Better by 23.8 %pts
HL Mountain Pedal (PD-M562) 11 7 4

57.1%

67.4%

Exponential Better by 10.2 %pts
HL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M928) 13 15 -2

-13.3%

-9.0%

Regression Worse by 4.4 %pts
HL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M940) 3 3 0

0.0%

-46.9%

HoltWinters Better by 46.9 %pts
HL Mountain Tire (TI-M823) 2 2 0

0.0%

5.3%

HoltWinters Better by 5.3 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R92B-44) 180 110 70

63.6%

70.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 6.3 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R92B-48) 133 134 -1

-0.7%

-17.9%

Regression Better by 17.1 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R92B-52) 70 67 3

4.5%

-20.0%

HoltWinters Better by 15.6 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R92B-58) 7 7 0

0.0%

8.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 8.8 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R92B-62) 14 14 0

0.0%

-5.9%

Exponential Better by 5.9 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R92R-44) 67 53 14

26.4%

-7.6%

HoltWinters Worse by 18.9 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R92R-48) 10 11 -1

-9.1%

-34.6%

HoltWinters Better by 25.5 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R92R-52) 2 2 0

0.0%

23.9%

HoltWinters Better by 23.9 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 56 (FR-R92R-56) 5 4 1

25.0%

35.5%

Regression Better by 10.5 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R92R-58) 15 15 0

0.0%

-18.2%

HoltWinters Better by 18.2 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R92R-62) 120 90 30

33.3%

20.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 12.8 %pts
HL Road Front Wheel (FW-R820) 5 4 1

25.0%

30.3%

HoltWinters Better by 5.3 %pts
HL Road Handlebars (HB-R956) 1 1 0

0.0%

36.1%

Regression Better by 36.1 %pts
HL Road Pedal (PD-R853) 13 9 4

44.4%

28.7%

Regression Worse by 15.7 %pts
HL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R820) 10 9 1

11.1%

-5.0%

HoltWinters Worse by 6.1 %pts
HL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R995) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
HL Road Tire (TI-R982) 13 15 -2

-13.3%

-4.9%

Exponential Worse by 8.4 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 46 (FR-T98U-46) 13 13 0

0.0%

-18.1%

HoltWinters Better by 18.1 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T98U-50) 1 1 0

0.0%

-6.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 6.7 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 60 (FR-T98U-60) 296 274 22

8.0%

14.8%

HoltWinters Better by 6.7 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 46 (FR-T98Y-46) 49 49 0

0.0%

0.7%

Regression Better by 0.7 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T98Y-50) 13 14 -1

-7.1%

0.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 6.6 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T98Y-54) 228 218 10

4.6%

-3.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 0.7 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 60 (FR-T98Y-60) 11 12 -1

-8.3%

-12.3%

HoltWinters Better by 4.0 %pts
HL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T924) 3 3 0

0.0%

9.9%

HoltWinters Better by 9.9 %pts
Hydration Pack - 70 oz. (HY-1023-70) 12 14 -2

-14.3%

-6.5%

Exponential Worse by 7.8 %pts
LL Bottom Bracket (BB-7421) 12 14 -2

-14.3%

11.4%

HoltWinters Worse by 2.9 %pts
LL Crankset (CS-4759) 15 14 1

7.1%

-29.1%

HoltWinters Better by 21.9 %pts
LL Fork (FK-1639) 13 9 4

44.4%

11.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 33.2 %pts
LL Headset (HS-0296) 16 17 -1

-5.9%

23.1%

HoltWinters Better by 17.3 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M21B-40) 15 12 3

25.0%

-26.0%

HoltWinters Better by 1.0 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M21B-42) 2 2 0

0.0%

-33.3%

Regression Better by 33.3 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M21B-44) 24 20 4

20.0%

9.6%

HoltWinters Worse by 10.4 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M21B-48) 21 19 2

10.5%

-33.7%

HoltWinters Better by 23.1 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 52 (FR-M21B-52) 256 278 -22

-7.9%

-10.0%

Exponential Better by 2.1 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 40 (FR-M21S-40) 178 143 35

24.5%

29.8%

HoltWinters Better by 5.4 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M21S-42) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M21S-44) 189 194 -5

-2.6%

16.7%

Regression Better by 14.1 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M21S-48) 3 3 0

0.0%

-57.9%

Exponential Better by 57.9 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 52 (FR-M21S-52) 38 28 10

35.7%

8.0%

Regression Worse by 27.8 %pts
LL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M423) 10 7 3

42.9%

-12.5%

HoltWinters Worse by 30.4 %pts
LL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M243) 19 16 3

18.8%

31.1%

HoltWinters Better by 12.3 %pts
LL Mountain Pedal (PD-M282) 10 11 -1

-9.1%

5.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 3.9 %pts
LL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M423) 11 13 -2

-15.4%

33.6%

HoltWinters Better by 18.2 %pts
LL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M236) 20 21 -1

-4.8%

-5.6%

Exponential Better by 0.8 %pts
LL Mountain Tire (TI-M267) 6 6 0

0.0%

6.5%

HoltWinters Better by 6.5 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R38B-44) 1 1 0

0.0%

205.5%

HoltWinters Better by 205.5 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R38B-48) 1 1 0

0.0%

13.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 13.3 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R38B-52) 11 12 -1

-8.3%

-25.8%

HoltWinters Better by 17.5 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R38B-58) 4 4 0

0.0%

-21.0%

Exponential Better by 21.0 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 60 (FR-R38B-60) 5 5 0

0.0%

-6.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 6.7 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R38B-62) 1 1 0

0.0%

62.7%

Regression Better by 62.7 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R38R-44) 268 171 97

56.7%

35.5%

HoltWinters Worse by 21.2 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R38R-48) 17 19 -2

-10.5%

-37.8%

HoltWinters Better by 27.3 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R38R-52) 14 15 -1

-6.7%

10.2%

HoltWinters Better by 3.5 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R38R-58) 78 82 -4

-4.9%

-35.2%

HoltWinters Better by 30.3 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R38R-60) 167 176 -9

-5.1%

-16.9%

HoltWinters Better by 11.8 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R38R-62) 11 11 0

0.0%

10.1%

Exponential Better by 10.1 %pts
LL Road Front Wheel (FW-R623) 6 6 0

0.0%

-2.2%

Exponential Better by 2.2 %pts
LL Road Handlebars (HB-R504) 13 13 0

0.0%

-2.4%

HoltWinters Better by 2.4 %pts
LL Road Pedal (PD-R347) 20 22 -2

-9.1%

-33.5%

HoltWinters Better by 24.4 %pts
LL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R623) 4 4 0

0.0%

23.9%

HoltWinters Better by 23.9 %pts
LL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R581) 131 124 7

5.6%

-18.5%

HoltWinters Better by 12.8 %pts
LL Road Tire (TI-R092) 7 6 1

16.7%

15.0%

HoltWinters Worse by 1.7 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 44 (FR-T67U-44) 5 5 0

0.0%

-27.4%

Exponential Better by 27.4 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T67U-50) 15 14 1

7.1%

-12.1%

HoltWinters Better by 4.9 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T67U-54) 11 12 -1

-8.3%

-21.2%

HoltWinters Better by 12.8 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 58 (FR-T67U-58) 11 11 0

0.0%

17.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 17.5 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 62 (FR-T67U-62) 17 20 -3

-15.0%

-11.7%

Exponential Worse by 3.3 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 44 (FR-T67Y-44) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T67Y-50) 8 7 1

14.3%

-7.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 6.7 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T67Y-54) 275 348 -73

-21.0%

-13.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 7.7 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 58 (FR-T67Y-58) 8 7 1

14.3%

3.4%

Regression Worse by 10.9 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 62 (FR-T67Y-62) 3 3 0

0.0%

-6.8%

HoltWinters Better by 6.8 %pts
LL Touring Handlebars (HB-T721) 1 1 0

0.0%

21.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 21.4 %pts
LL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T312) 1 1 0

0.0%

31.5%

Exponential Better by 31.5 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, M (LJ-0192-M) 61 68 -7

-10.3%

-21.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 11.6 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, S (LJ-0192-S) 13 10 3

30.0%

56.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 26.6 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, XL (LJ-0192-X) 5 5 0

0.0%

-15.7%

HoltWinters Better by 15.7 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, L (SB-M891-L) 9 9 0

0.0%

13.9%

HoltWinters Better by 13.9 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, M (SB-M891-M) 8 8 0

0.0%

-13.5%

HoltWinters Better by 13.5 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, S (SB-M891-S) 210 219 -9

-4.1%

-34.5%

HoltWinters Better by 30.4 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, L (SH-M897-L) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Men's Sports Shorts, M (SH-M897-M) 12 14 -2

-14.3%

-24.4%

Regression Better by 10.1 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, S (SH-M897-S) 63 55 8

14.5%

4.8%

HoltWinters Worse by 9.8 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, XL (SH-M897-X) 6 6 0

0.0%

-36.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 36.2 %pts
Minipump (PU-0452) 417 489 -72

-14.7%

-11.9%

HoltWinters Worse by 2.8 %pts
ML Bottom Bracket (BB-8107) 207 194 13

6.7%

-21.7%

HoltWinters Better by 15.0 %pts
ML Crankset (CS-6583) 12 7 5

71.4%

62.3%

HoltWinters Worse by 9.1 %pts
ML Fork (FK-5136) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
ML Headset (HS-2451) 2 2 0

0.0%

30.1%

HoltWinters Better by 30.1 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M63B-38) 3 3 0

0.0%

77.9%

Regression Better by 77.9 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M63B-40) 11 10 1

10.0%

17.2%

Exponential Better by 7.2 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M63B-44) 16 11 5

45.5%

36.0%

HoltWinters Worse by 9.5 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M63B-48) 95 96 -1

-1.0%

-5.6%

HoltWinters Better by 4.5 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 38 (FR-M63S-38) 19 20 -1

-5.0%

-12.9%

HoltWinters Better by 7.9 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 40 (FR-M63S-40) 7 7 0

0.0%

-15.9%

HoltWinters Better by 15.9 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 42 (FR-M63S-42) 3 3 0

0.0%

24.8%

Regression Better by 24.8 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 46 (FR-M63S-46) 41 34 7

20.6%

15.3%

Regression Worse by 5.3 %pts
ML Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M762) 16 15 1

6.7%

-9.3%

HoltWinters Better by 2.6 %pts
ML Mountain Handlebars (HB-M763) 5 5 0

0.0%

-18.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 18.8 %pts
ML Mountain Pedal (PD-M340) 8 8 0

0.0%

-24.3%

Exponential Better by 24.3 %pts
ML Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M762) 3 3 0

0.0%

-19.4%

HoltWinters Better by 19.4 %pts
ML Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M798) 1 1 0

0.0%

-2.4%

HoltWinters Better by 2.4 %pts
ML Mountain Tire (TI-M602) 352 436 -84

-19.3%

-13.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 5.8 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R72R-44) 5 5 0

0.0%

-28.9%

HoltWinters Better by 28.9 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R72R-48) 14 14 0

0.0%

17.2%

HoltWinters Better by 17.2 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R72R-52) 176 203 -27

-13.3%

-8.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 5.3 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R72R-58) 20 18 2

11.1%

-6.8%

HoltWinters Worse by 4.4 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R72R-60) 2 2 0

0.0%

1.9%

HoltWinters Better by 1.9 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 38 (FR-R72Y-38) 10 11 -1

-9.1%

-14.0%

Regression Better by 4.9 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 40 (FR-R72Y-40) 2 2 0

0.0%

-65.0%

HoltWinters Better by 65.0 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 42 (FR-R72Y-42) 15 16 -1

-6.3%

7.0%

HoltWinters Better by 0.8 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 44 (FR-R72Y-44) 30 32 -2

-6.3%

-12.7%

Regression Better by 6.5 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 48 (FR-R72Y-48) 16 18 -2

-11.1%

-27.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 16.2 %pts
ML Road Front Wheel (FW-R762) 116 144 -28

-19.4%

-11.4%

Regression Worse by 8.0 %pts
ML Road Handlebars (HB-R720) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
ML Road Pedal (PD-R563) 53 44 9

20.5%

51.6%

Exponential Better by 31.2 %pts
ML Road Rear Wheel (RW-R762) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
ML Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R908) 3 3 0

0.0%

-4.8%

HoltWinters Better by 4.8 %pts
ML Road Tire (TI-R628) 28 28 0

0.0%

-13.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 13.2 %pts
ML Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T762) 17 20 -3

-15.0%

-8.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 6.6 %pts
Mountain Bike Socks, L (SO-B909-L) 6 6 0

0.0%

-13.5%

Regression Better by 13.5 %pts
Mountain Bike Socks, M (SO-B909-M) 11 12 -1

-8.3%

34.1%

HoltWinters Better by 25.7 %pts
Mountain Bottle Cage (BC-M005) 2 2 0

0.0%

-3.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 3.7 %pts
Mountain Pump (PU-M044) 4 4 0

0.0%

-22.6%

Regression Better by 22.6 %pts
Mountain Tire Tube (TT-M928) 19 13 6

46.2%

98.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 51.9 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 38 (BK-M82B-38) 11 9 2

22.2%

32.6%

Exponential Better by 10.4 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 42 (BK-M82B-42) 18 18 0

0.0%

12.5%

HoltWinters Better by 12.5 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 44 (BK-M82B-44) 3 3 0

0.0%

58.0%

HoltWinters Better by 58.0 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 48 (BK-M82B-48) 29 28 1

3.6%

-15.6%

Exponential Better by 12.1 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 38 (BK-M82S-38) 3 2 1

50.0%

59.1%

Regression Better by 9.1 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 42 (BK-M82S-42) 20 20 0

0.0%

6.3%

Exponential Better by 6.3 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 44 (BK-M82S-44) 3 3 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Mountain-100 Silver, 48 (BK-M82S-48) 2 2 0

0.0%

9.4%

Regression Better by 9.4 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 38 (BK-M68B-38) 2 2 0

0.0%

-39.0%

Exponential Better by 39.0 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 42 (BK-M68B-42) 4 4 0

0.0%

2.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 2.2 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 46 (BK-M68B-46) 10 9 1

11.1%

23.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 12.6 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 38 (BK-M68S-38) 97 105 -8

-7.6%

-21.3%

HoltWinters Better by 13.6 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 42 (BK-M68S-42) 6 6 0

0.0%

2.9%

Exponential Better by 2.9 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 46 (BK-M68S-46) 2 2 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Mountain-300 Black, 38 (BK-M47B-38) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Mountain-300 Black, 40 (BK-M47B-40) 51 49 2

4.1%

25.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 21.5 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 44 (BK-M47B-44) 2 2 0

0.0%

1.5%

HoltWinters Better by 1.5 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 48 (BK-M47B-48) 296 302 -6

-2.0%

-0.8%

HoltWinters Worse by 1.1 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 38 (BK-M38S-38) 2 2 0

0.0%

44.4%

Exponential Better by 44.4 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 40 (BK-M38S-40) 381 327 54

16.5%

16.3%

HoltWinters Worse by 0.3 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 42 (BK-M38S-42) 12 12 0

0.0%

25.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 25.0 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 46 (BK-M38S-46) 15 14 1

7.1%

-43.9%

HoltWinters Better by 36.8 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 40 (BK-M18B-40) 41 37 4

10.8%

-3.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 7.3 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 42 (BK-M18B-42) 20 17 3

17.6%

13.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 4.2 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 44 (BK-M18B-44) 243 248 -5

-2.0%

22.5%

HoltWinters Better by 20.5 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 48 (BK-M18B-48) 48 48 0

0.0%

13.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 13.9 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 52 (BK-M18B-52) 16 14 2

14.3%

19.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 5.0 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 40 (BK-M18S-40) 5 4 1

25.0%

14.1%

Regression Worse by 10.9 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 42 (BK-M18S-42) 79 70 9

12.9%

8.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 4.2 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 44 (BK-M18S-44) 188 209 -21

-10.0%

-16.1%

Regression Better by 6.0 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 48 (BK-M18S-48) 4 4 0

0.0%

7.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 7.1 %pts
Patch Kit/8 Patches (PK-7098) 170 194 -24

-12.4%

-29.6%

HoltWinters Better by 17.3 %pts
Racing Socks, L (SO-R809-L) 10 10 0

0.0%

1.4%

Regression Better by 1.4 %pts
Racing Socks, M (SO-R809-M) 2 2 0

0.0%

12.5%

HoltWinters Better by 12.5 %pts
Rear Brakes (RB-9231) 3 3 0

0.0%

-2.6%

Regression Better by 2.6 %pts
Rear Derailleur (RD-2308) 121 117 4

3.4%

-6.1%

Exponential Better by 2.7 %pts
Road Bottle Cage (BC-R205) 8 6 2

33.3%

41.4%

Exponential Better by 8.0 %pts
Road Tire Tube (TT-R982) 13 12 1

8.3%

-6.4%

Regression Worse by 2.0 %pts
Road-150 Red, 44 (BK-R93R-44) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Road-150 Red, 48 (BK-R93R-48) 16 15 1

6.7%

4.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 1.8 %pts
Road-150 Red, 52 (BK-R93R-52) 13 12 1

8.3%

0.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 7.4 %pts
Road-150 Red, 56 (BK-R93R-56) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Road-150 Red, 62 (BK-R93R-62) 4 4 0

0.0%

7.5%

HoltWinters Better by 7.5 %pts
Road-250 Black, 44 (BK-R89B-44) 116 121 -5

-4.1%

21.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 17.1 %pts
Road-250 Black, 48 (BK-R89B-48) 154 144 10

6.9%

39.3%

HoltWinters Better by 32.3 %pts
Road-250 Black, 52 (BK-R89B-52) 11 11 0

0.0%

43.7%

HoltWinters Better by 43.7 %pts
Road-250 Black, 58 (BK-R89B-58) 9 9 0

0.0%

69.4%

HoltWinters Better by 69.4 %pts
Road-250 Red, 44 (BK-R89R-44) 38 38 0

0.0%

-12.3%

HoltWinters Better by 12.3 %pts
Road-250 Red, 48 (BK-R89R-48) 296 281 15

5.3%

12.6%

Exponential Better by 7.3 %pts
Road-250 Red, 52 (BK-R89R-52) 15 11 4

36.4%

20.1%

Exponential Worse by 16.3 %pts
Road-250 Red, 58 (BK-R89R-58) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Road-350-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R79Y-40) 14 13 1

7.7%

-13.5%

Exponential Better by 5.8 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R79Y-42) 6 6 0

0.0%

74.4%

HoltWinters Better by 74.4 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R79Y-44) 14 14 0

0.0%

-23.0%

HoltWinters Better by 23.0 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R79Y-48) 20 16 4

25.0%

39.5%

HoltWinters Better by 14.5 %pts
Road-450 Red, 44 (BK-R68R-44) 6 6 0

0.0%

-19.6%

Regression Better by 19.6 %pts
Road-450 Red, 48 (BK-R68R-48) 19 19 0

0.0%

4.6%

Exponential Better by 4.6 %pts
Road-450 Red, 52 (BK-R68R-52) 9 10 -1

-10.0%

-31.6%

HoltWinters Better by 21.6 %pts
Road-450 Red, 58 (BK-R68R-58) 130 149 -19

-12.8%

-32.3%

HoltWinters Better by 19.6 %pts
Road-450 Red, 60 (BK-R68R-60) 2 2 0

0.0%

50.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 50.0 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 38 (BK-R64Y-38) 8 8 0

0.0%

-12.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 12.5 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R64Y-40) 6 7 -1

-14.3%

-0.8%

Regression Worse by 13.5 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R64Y-42) 17 18 -1

-5.6%

-32.9%

Regression Better by 27.3 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R64Y-44) 2 2 0

0.0%

37.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 37.5 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R64Y-48) 16 15 1

6.7%

-1.4%

HoltWinters Worse by 5.2 %pts
Road-650 Black, 44 (BK-R50B-44) 8 9 -1

-11.1%

-22.4%

Regression Better by 11.3 %pts
Road-650 Black, 48 (BK-R50B-48) 5 5 0

0.0%

9.0%

HoltWinters Better by 9.0 %pts
Road-650 Black, 52 (BK-R50B-52) 12 10 2

20.0%

34.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 14.9 %pts
Road-650 Black, 58 (BK-R50B-58) 6 6 0

0.0%

-4.9%

Exponential Better by 4.9 %pts
Road-650 Black, 60 (BK-R50B-60) 4 3 1

33.3%

99.4%

Exponential Better by 66.1 %pts
Road-650 Black, 62 (BK-R50B-62) 1 1 0

0.0%

171.1%

HoltWinters Better by 171.1 %pts
Road-650 Red, 48 (BK-R50R-48) 16 17 -1

-5.9%

-63.9%

HoltWinters Better by 58.1 %pts
Road-650 Red, 52 (BK-R50R-52) 128 107 21

19.6%

11.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 7.7 %pts
Road-650 Red, 58 (BK-R50R-58) 11 7 4

57.1%

27.1%

HoltWinters Worse by 30.1 %pts
Road-650 Red, 60 (BK-R50R-60) 2 2 0

0.0%

-30.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 30.0 %pts
Road-650 Red, 62 (BK-R50R-62) 366 353 13

3.7%

-3.9%

Regression Better by 0.2 %pts
Road-750 Black, 44 (BK-R19B-44) 20 15 5

33.3%

1.5%

Regression Worse by 31.9 %pts
Road-750 Black, 48 (BK-R19B-48) 9 10 -1

-10.0%

-49.9%

HoltWinters Better by 39.9 %pts
Road-750 Black, 52 (BK-R19B-52) 13 13 0

0.0%

-16.9%

Exponential Better by 16.9 %pts
Road-750 Black, 58 (BK-R19B-58) 4 3 1

33.3%

29.4%

HoltWinters Worse by 4.0 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, L (SJ-0194-L) 17 14 3

21.4%

-6.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 15.5 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, M (SJ-0194-M) 11 12 -1

-8.3%

17.1%

Regression Better by 8.8 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, S (SJ-0194-S) 205 117 88

75.2%

18.4%

HoltWinters Worse by 56.8 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, XL (SJ-0194-X) 2 2 0

0.0%

-60.4%

HoltWinters Better by 60.4 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Black (HL-U509) 10 9 1

11.1%

18.7%

Exponential Better by 7.6 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Blue (HL-U509-B) 10 11 -1

-9.1%

-4.6%

Regression Worse by 4.5 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Red (HL-U509-R) 13 15 -2

-13.3%

-24.5%

Exponential Better by 11.2 %pts
Taillights - Battery-Powered (LT-T990) 9 9 0

0.0%

6.3%

Exponential Better by 6.3 %pts
Touring Front Wheel (FW-T905) 5 5 0

0.0%

9.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 9.3 %pts
Touring Pedal (PD-T852) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Touring Rear Wheel (RW-T905) 187 159 28

17.6%

-12.7%

HoltWinters Worse by 4.9 %pts
Touring Tire (TI-T723) 18 19 -1

-5.3%

0.6%

Regression Worse by 4.6 %pts
Touring Tire Tube (TT-T092) 9 6 3

50.0%

154.7%

HoltWinters Better by 104.7 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 46 (BK-T79U-46) 14 9 5

55.6%

92.1%

HoltWinters Better by 36.5 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 50 (BK-T79U-50) 7 7 0

0.0%

56.2%

HoltWinters Better by 56.2 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 54 (BK-T79U-54) 3 3 0

0.0%

4.8%

Regression Better by 4.8 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 60 (BK-T79U-60) 95 52 43

82.7%

96.9%

Exponential Better by 14.2 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T79Y-50) 10 7 3

42.9%

65.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 23.1 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T79Y-54) 153 164 -11

-6.7%

-12.9%

HoltWinters Better by 6.2 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 60 (BK-T79Y-60) 16 17 -1

-5.9%

-5.8%

Regression Worse by 0.0 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 46 (BK-T44U-46) 10 7 3

42.9%

31.0%

Exponential Worse by 11.8 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 50 (BK-T44U-50) 10 10 0

0.0%

-17.6%

HoltWinters Better by 17.6 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 54 (BK-T44U-54) 11 12 -1

-8.3%

24.7%

Regression Better by 16.3 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 60 (BK-T44U-60) 7 5 2

40.0%

73.9%

Exponential Better by 33.9 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 44 (BK-T18U-44) 1 1 0

0.0%

-26.8%

HoltWinters Better by 26.8 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 50 (BK-T18U-50) 5 5 0

0.0%

-11.3%

HoltWinters Better by 11.3 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 54 (BK-T18U-54) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Touring-3000 Blue, 58 (BK-T18U-58) 8 8 0

0.0%

4.7%

Exponential Better by 4.7 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 62 (BK-T18U-62) 5 5 0

0.0%

3.1%

Regression Better by 3.1 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 44 (BK-T18Y-44) 12 9 3

33.3%

14.4%

HoltWinters Worse by 18.9 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T18Y-50) 21 15 6

40.0%

21.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 18.4 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T18Y-54) 196 156 40

25.6%

57.6%

Exponential Better by 32.0 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 58 (BK-T18Y-58) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Touring-3000 Yellow, 62 (BK-T18Y-62) 113 101 12

11.9%

54.3%

HoltWinters Better by 42.4 %pts
Touring-Panniers, Large (PA-T100) 279 270 9

3.3%

-12.0%

HoltWinters Better by 8.7 %pts
Water Bottle - 30 oz. (WB-H098) 18 17 1

5.9%

-33.0%

HoltWinters Better by 27.1 %pts
Women's Mountain Shorts, L (SH-W890-L) 13 11 2

18.2%

-5.4%

Exponential Worse by 12.8 %pts
Women's Mountain Shorts, M (SH-W890-M) 5 5 0

0.0%

37.8%

Regression Better by 37.8 %pts
Women's Mountain Shorts, S (SH-W890-S) 5 5 0

0.0%

-13.6%

HoltWinters Better by 13.6 %pts
Women's Tights, L (TG-W091-L) 122 105 17

16.2%

45.2%

HoltWinters Better by 29.0 %pts
Women's Tights, M (TG-W091-M) 213 126 87

69.0%

75.3%

HoltWinters Better by 6.2 %pts
Total 11,980 11,571 409 3.5% 1.3%   Better in 215 out of 299 items (71.9%)
Weighted Average % Error 13.1% Weighted Average % Error (Alt) 12.1% Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) 10.1% Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) 5.3
Weighted Average % Error-Statistics 19.8% Weighted Average % Error (Alt)-Statistics 3.1% Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)-Statistics 24.1% Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)-Statistics 7.7

Specialty Bike Shop(United Kingdom) - Prepared in Jul - Period of sale: Aug
Forecast Actual Variance Percent Error Stats Pct Error Best Algorithm Human vs. Statistics
All-Purpose Bike Stand (ST-1401) 204 261 -57

-21.8%

-21.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 0.5 %pts
AWC Logo Cap (CA-1098) 427 251 176

70.1%

87.7%

Regression Better by 17.6 %pts
Bike Wash - Dissolver (CL-9009) 19 18 1

5.6%

16.9%

HoltWinters Better by 11.4 %pts
Cable Lock (LO-C100) 1 1 0

0.0%

8.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 8.3 %pts
Chain (CH-0234) 29 30 -1

-3.3%

25.6%

HoltWinters Better by 22.3 %pts
Classic Vest, L (VE-C304-L) 8 9 -1

-11.1%

-23.2%

Exponential Better by 12.1 %pts
Classic Vest, M (VE-C304-M) 21 22 -1

-4.5%

-17.4%

Regression Better by 12.8 %pts
Classic Vest, S (VE-C304-S) 12 9 3

33.3%

62.2%

HoltWinters Better by 28.8 %pts
Fender Set - Mountain (FE-6654) 8 9 -1

-11.1%

-15.2%

Exponential Better by 4.0 %pts
Front Brakes (FB-9873) 23 22 1

4.5%

-10.5%

HoltWinters Better by 6.0 %pts
Front Derailleur (FD-2342) 20 15 5

33.3%

17.2%

Exponential Worse by 16.1 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, L (GL-F110-L) 288 154 134

87.0%

22.7%

Regression Worse by 64.3 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, M (GL-F110-M) 15 14 1

7.1%

-4.6%

Exponential Worse by 2.6 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, S (GL-F110-S) 11 11 0

0.0%

5.9%

Exponential Better by 5.9 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, L (GL-H102-L) 15 16 -1

-6.3%

-0.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 6.0 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, M (GL-H102-M) 315 178 137

77.0%

63.3%

Regression Worse by 13.7 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, S (GL-H102-S) 255 201 54

26.9%

-16.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 10.4 %pts
Headlights - Dual-Beam (LT-H902) 190 213 -23

-10.8%

51.4%

HoltWinters Better by 40.6 %pts
Headlights - Weatherproof (LT-H903) 11 11 0

0.0%

8.6%

Regression Better by 8.6 %pts
Hitch Rack - 4-Bike (RA-H123) 23 19 4

21.1%

21.5%

Exponential Better by 0.4 %pts
HL Bottom Bracket (BB-9108) 17 18 -1

-5.6%

-5.3%

Regression Worse by 0.3 %pts
HL Crankset (CS-9183) 11 12 -1

-8.3%

14.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 5.7 %pts
HL Fork (FK-9939) 22 19 3

15.8%

11.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 4.0 %pts
HL Headset (HS-3479) 36 39 -3

-7.7%

4.5%

Regression Worse by 3.2 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M94B-38) 3 3 0

0.0%

-33.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 33.3 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M94B-42) 22 22 0

0.0%

36.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 36.8 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M94B-44) 13 14 -1

-7.1%

12.4%

HoltWinters Better by 5.2 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 46 (FR-M94B-46) 17 15 2

13.3%

0.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 12.5 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M94B-48) 17 18 -1

-5.6%

-36.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 31.2 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 38 (FR-M94S-38) 21 20 1

5.0%

14.1%

HoltWinters Better by 9.1 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M94S-42) 18 18 0

0.0%

14.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 14.9 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M94S-44) 2 2 0

0.0%

33.6%

HoltWinters Better by 33.6 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 46 (FR-M94S-46) 8 8 0

0.0%

19.2%

Exponential Better by 19.2 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M94S-52) 6 5 1

20.0%

20.0%

LY+YOY Growth% The same
HL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M928) 16 18 -2

-11.1%

-35.9%

HoltWinters Better by 24.8 %pts
HL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M918) 30 26 4

15.4%

67.5%

HoltWinters Better by 52.1 %pts
HL Mountain Pedal (PD-M562) 16 16 0

0.0%

-29.3%

HoltWinters Better by 29.3 %pts
HL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M928) 33 33 0

0.0%

25.6%

HoltWinters Better by 25.6 %pts
HL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M940) 13 10 3

30.0%

9.9%

HoltWinters Worse by 20.1 %pts
HL Mountain Tire (TI-M823) 7 7 0

0.0%

11.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 11.7 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R92B-44) 270 248 22

8.9%

10.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 1.6 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R92B-48) 336 357 -21

-5.9%

-7.1%

Regression Better by 1.2 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R92B-52) 461 518 -57

-11.0%

-6.4%

Exponential Worse by 4.6 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R92B-58) 14 12 2

16.7%

16.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 0.7 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R92B-62) 18 15 3

20.0%

35.6%

HoltWinters Better by 15.6 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R92R-44) 256 238 18

7.6%

-48.6%

HoltWinters Better by 41.0 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R92R-48) 23 21 2

9.5%

23.6%

Regression Better by 14.1 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R92R-52) 7 7 0

0.0%

-18.2%

Exponential Better by 18.2 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 56 (FR-R92R-56) 10 10 0

0.0%

-21.4%

Exponential Better by 21.4 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R92R-58) 24 25 -1

-4.0%

-11.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 7.3 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R92R-62) 231 191 40

20.9%

20.4%

HoltWinters Worse by 0.5 %pts
HL Road Front Wheel (FW-R820) 19 19 0

0.0%

17.2%

HoltWinters Better by 17.2 %pts
HL Road Handlebars (HB-R956) 24 20 4

20.0%

-0.0%

HoltWinters Worse by 20.0 %pts
HL Road Pedal (PD-R853) 18 19 -1

-5.3%

-23.9%

Regression Better by 18.6 %pts
HL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R820) 21 18 3

16.7%

-0.9%

Regression Worse by 15.7 %pts
HL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R995) 31 30 1

3.3%

-4.0%

Exponential Better by 0.7 %pts
HL Road Tire (TI-R982) 21 25 -4

-16.0%

10.6%

HoltWinters Worse by 5.4 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 46 (FR-T98U-46) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T98U-50) 23 25 -2

-8.0%

13.6%

HoltWinters Better by 5.6 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T98U-54) 13 13 0

0.0%

14.4%

Regression Better by 14.4 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 60 (FR-T98U-60) 97 114 -17

-14.9%

-14.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 0.0 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 46 (FR-T98Y-46) 270 272 -2

-0.7%

-13.0%

Regression Better by 12.3 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T98Y-50) 3 3 0

0.0%

12.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 12.0 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T98Y-54) 312 336 -24

-7.1%

-40.4%

HoltWinters Better by 33.3 %pts
HL Touring Handlebars (HB-T928) 3 3 0

0.0%

-0.4%

HoltWinters Better by 0.4 %pts
HL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T924) 10 10 0

0.0%

-9.4%

Exponential Better by 9.4 %pts
Hydration Pack - 70 oz. (HY-1023-70) 37 35 2

5.7%

99.1%

HoltWinters Better by 93.4 %pts
LL Bottom Bracket (BB-7421) 8 8 0

0.0%

26.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 26.7 %pts
LL Crankset (CS-4759) 11 9 2

22.2%

136.4%

HoltWinters Better by 114.2 %pts
LL Fork (FK-1639) 13 9 4

44.4%

6.9%

HoltWinters Worse by 37.6 %pts
LL Headset (HS-0296) 17 17 0

0.0%

-48.6%

HoltWinters Better by 48.6 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M21B-40) 8 8 0

0.0%

-14.3%

Exponential Better by 14.3 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M21B-42) 4 4 0

0.0%

-8.9%

Regression Better by 8.9 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M21B-44) 30 26 4

15.4%

116.9%

HoltWinters Better by 101.5 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M21B-48) 17 18 -1

-5.6%

-53.3%

HoltWinters Better by 47.7 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 52 (FR-M21B-52) 160 139 21

15.1%

86.0%

HoltWinters Better by 70.9 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 40 (FR-M21S-40) 103 120 -17

-14.2%

-28.7%

HoltWinters Better by 14.5 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M21S-44) 373 344 29

8.4%

1.8%

Regression Worse by 6.6 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M21S-48) 16 16 0

0.0%

-5.9%

HoltWinters Better by 5.9 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 52 (FR-M21S-52) 612 717 -105

-14.6%

-48.9%

HoltWinters Better by 34.3 %pts
LL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M423) 39 37 2

5.4%

5.3%

HoltWinters Worse by 0.2 %pts
LL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M243) 13 12 1

8.3%

99.3%

HoltWinters Better by 90.9 %pts
LL Mountain Pedal (PD-M282) 19 21 -2

-9.5%

-24.1%

Regression Better by 14.6 %pts
LL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M423) 14 14 0

0.0%

6.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 6.1 %pts
LL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M236) 6 6 0

0.0%

2.6%

Exponential Better by 2.6 %pts
LL Mountain Tire (TI-M267) 32 34 -2

-5.9%

-16.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 10.1 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R38B-44) 21 24 -3

-12.5%

-21.3%

Exponential Better by 8.8 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R38B-48) 28 27 1

3.7%

1.7%

HoltWinters Worse by 2.0 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R38B-52) 18 15 3

20.0%

65.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 45.3 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R38B-58) 12 13 -1

-7.7%

-21.5%

Regression Better by 13.9 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 60 (FR-R38B-60) 35 36 -1

-2.8%

-28.5%

HoltWinters Better by 25.7 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R38B-62) 24 23 1

4.3%

29.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 25.6 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R38R-44) 223 212 11

5.2%

-25.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 19.9 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R38R-48) 18 17 1

5.9%

16.5%

Exponential Better by 10.6 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R38R-52) 10 10 0

0.0%

91.0%

HoltWinters Better by 91.0 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R38R-58) 239 199 40

20.1%

15.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 5.1 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R38R-60) 193 220 -27

-12.3%

-6.3%

HoltWinters Worse by 6.0 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R38R-62) 29 29 0

0.0%

-15.0%

HoltWinters Better by 15.0 %pts
LL Road Front Wheel (FW-R623) 23 22 1

4.5%

-1.5%

Regression Worse by 3.1 %pts
LL Road Handlebars (HB-R504) 3 3 0

0.0%

32.4%

HoltWinters Better by 32.4 %pts
LL Road Pedal (PD-R347) 14 15 -1

-6.7%

-20.0%

Regression Better by 13.4 %pts
LL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R623) 19 19 0

0.0%

3.9%

Regression Better by 3.9 %pts
LL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R581) 211 175 36

20.6%

-6.6%

HoltWinters Worse by 14.0 %pts
LL Road Tire (TI-R092) 12 9 3

33.3%

6.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 26.4 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 44 (FR-T67U-44) 7 7 0

0.0%

3.2%

Exponential Better by 3.2 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T67U-50) 36 29 7

24.1%

19.7%

Regression Worse by 4.4 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 58 (FR-T67U-58) 9 8 1

12.5%

34.7%

HoltWinters Better by 22.2 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 44 (FR-T67Y-44) 20 22 -2

-9.1%

29.9%

HoltWinters Better by 20.8 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T67Y-50) 2 2 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T67Y-54) 102 84 18

21.4%

25.3%

HoltWinters Better by 3.9 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 58 (FR-T67Y-58) 18 17 1

5.9%

20.5%

Exponential Better by 14.6 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 62 (FR-T67Y-62) 10 9 1

11.1%

10.0%

Regression Worse by 1.1 %pts
LL Touring Handlebars (HB-T721) 8 8 0

0.0%

-7.4%

HoltWinters Better by 7.4 %pts
LL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T312) 10 11 -1

-9.1%

-2.4%

Regression Worse by 6.7 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, L (LJ-0192-L) 20 19 1

5.3%

15.2%

HoltWinters Better by 10.0 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, M (LJ-0192-M) 178 161 17

10.6%

-8.8%

Exponential Worse by 1.8 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, S (LJ-0192-S) 23 20 3

15.0%

13.0%

Exponential Worse by 2.0 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, XL (LJ-0192-X) 24 26 -2

-7.7%

-16.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 9.1 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, L (SB-M891-L) 7 7 0

0.0%

-13.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 13.1 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, M (SB-M891-M) 3 3 0

0.0%

29.2%

Regression Better by 29.2 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, S (SB-M891-S) 291 238 53

22.3%

30.5%

Exponential Better by 8.2 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, L (SH-M897-L) 10 10 0

0.0%

8.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 8.3 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, M (SH-M897-M) 31 30 1

3.3%

7.9%

HoltWinters Better by 4.6 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, S (SH-M897-S) 323 302 21

7.0%

21.1%

HoltWinters Better by 14.1 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, XL (SH-M897-X) 10 10 0

0.0%

-16.3%

HoltWinters Better by 16.3 %pts
Minipump (PU-0452) 173 139 34

24.5%

30.3%

HoltWinters Better by 5.9 %pts
ML Bottom Bracket (BB-8107) 41 34 7

20.6%

36.8%

HoltWinters Better by 16.2 %pts
ML Crankset (CS-6583) 20 16 4

25.0%

31.7%

Regression Better by 6.7 %pts
ML Fork (FK-5136) 28 24 4

16.7%

68.5%

HoltWinters Better by 51.8 %pts
ML Headset (HS-2451) 5 5 0

0.0%

34.1%

HoltWinters Better by 34.1 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M63B-38) 10 8 2

25.0%

33.3%

HoltWinters Better by 8.3 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M63B-40) 6 6 0

0.0%

7.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 7.6 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M63B-44) 25 26 -1

-3.8%

-11.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 7.5 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M63B-48) 394 370 24

6.5%

-8.6%

HoltWinters Better by 2.1 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 38 (FR-M63S-38) 14 14 0

0.0%

-8.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 8.3 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 40 (FR-M63S-40) 7 7 0

0.0%

-13.2%

Exponential Better by 13.2 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 42 (FR-M63S-42) 27 23 4

17.4%

-10.7%

HoltWinters Worse by 6.7 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 46 (FR-M63S-46) 32 35 -3

-8.6%

-24.9%

HoltWinters Better by 16.3 %pts
ML Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M762) 11 9 2

22.2%

-3.8%

HoltWinters Worse by 18.4 %pts
ML Mountain Handlebars (HB-M763) 28 29 -1

-3.4%

25.3%

Regression Better by 21.8 %pts
ML Mountain Pedal (PD-M340) 18 16 2

12.5%

-41.2%

HoltWinters Better by 28.7 %pts
ML Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M762) 35 38 -3

-7.9%

35.9%

HoltWinters Better by 28.0 %pts
ML Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M798) 25 25 0

0.0%

10.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 10.5 %pts
ML Mountain Tire (TI-M602) 254 256 -2

-0.8%

16.3%

Exponential Better by 15.6 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R72R-44) 14 14 0

0.0%

-17.3%

Regression Better by 17.3 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R72R-48) 58 52 6

11.5%

40.0%

Regression Better by 28.4 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R72R-52) 428 298 130

43.6%

18.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 24.9 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R72R-58) 6 6 0

0.0%

-37.4%

HoltWinters Better by 37.4 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R72R-60) 2 2 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 38 (FR-R72Y-38) 12 12 0

0.0%

-2.5%

HoltWinters Better by 2.5 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 42 (FR-R72Y-42) 5 5 0

0.0%

17.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 17.0 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 44 (FR-R72Y-44) 12 11 1

9.1%

-16.7%

HoltWinters Better by 7.6 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 48 (FR-R72Y-48) 2 2 0

0.0%

34.9%

Regression Better by 34.9 %pts
ML Road Front Wheel (FW-R762) 104 112 -8

-7.1%

-17.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 10.5 %pts
ML Road Handlebars (HB-R720) 8 8 0

0.0%

-52.4%

HoltWinters Better by 52.4 %pts
ML Road Pedal (PD-R563) 124 163 -39

-23.9%

-7.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 16.6 %pts
ML Road Rear Wheel (RW-R762) 13 14 -1

-7.1%

-8.5%

Regression Better by 1.4 %pts
ML Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R908) 3 3 0

0.0%

-16.3%

Regression Better by 16.3 %pts
ML Road Tire (TI-R628) 24 25 -1

-4.0%

34.9%

HoltWinters Better by 30.9 %pts
ML Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T762) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Mountain Bike Socks, L (SO-B909-L) 12 15 -3

-20.0%

-52.7%

HoltWinters Better by 32.7 %pts
Mountain Bike Socks, M (SO-B909-M) 10 10 0

0.0%

39.0%

HoltWinters Better by 39.0 %pts
Mountain Bottle Cage (BC-M005) 5 5 0

0.0%

20.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 20.0 %pts
Mountain Pump (PU-M044) 15 13 2

15.4%

59.8%

HoltWinters Better by 44.4 %pts
Mountain Tire Tube (TT-M928) 31 33 -2

-6.1%

44.9%

HoltWinters Better by 38.8 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 38 (BK-M82B-38) 12 12 0

0.0%

9.7%

HoltWinters Better by 9.7 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 42 (BK-M82B-42) 383 867 -484

-55.8%

-65.4%

HoltWinters Better by 9.5 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 44 (BK-M82B-44) 4 4 0

0.0%

3.0%

HoltWinters Better by 3.0 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 48 (BK-M82B-48) 21 19 2

10.5%

-14.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 3.6 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 38 (BK-M82S-38) 15 27 -12

-45.0%

-26.2%

Exponential Worse by 18.8 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 42 (BK-M82S-42) 13 13 0

0.0%

8.5%

Exponential Better by 8.5 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 44 (BK-M82S-44) 10 17 -7

-39.9%

-21.6%

Exponential Worse by 18.3 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 48 (BK-M82S-48) 25 44 -19

-42.9%

-64.6%

HoltWinters Better by 21.7 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 38 (BK-M68B-38) 9 13 -4

-30.3%

-36.4%

Regression Better by 6.2 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 42 (BK-M68B-42) 8 8 0

0.0%

-2.6%

HoltWinters Better by 2.6 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 46 (BK-M68B-46) 22 46 -24

-52.5%

-54.3%

HoltWinters Better by 1.7 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 38 (BK-M68S-38) 196 259 -63

-24.3%

-10.1%

Exponential Worse by 14.2 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 42 (BK-M68S-42) 10 43 -33

-76.6%

-71.6%

Exponential Worse by 5.0 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 46 (BK-M68S-46) 10 11 -1

-9.1%

20.2%

HoltWinters Better by 11.1 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 38 (BK-M47B-38) 13 28 -15

-53.0%

-48.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 4.8 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 40 (BK-M47B-40) 462 767 -305

-39.7%

-43.0%

HoltWinters Better by 3.3 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 44 (BK-M47B-44) 12 24 -12

-49.7%

-41.9%

Regression Worse by 7.8 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 48 (BK-M47B-48) 190 260 -70

-26.9%

-24.1%

HoltWinters Worse by 2.8 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 38 (BK-M38S-38) 5 12 -7

-57.2%

-60.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 3.5 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 40 (BK-M38S-40) 216 208 8

3.8%

51.4%

HoltWinters Better by 47.5 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 42 (BK-M38S-42) 10 18 -8

-45.9%

-47.7%

Regression Better by 1.8 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 46 (BK-M38S-46) 23 43 -20

-46.3%

-36.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 9.6 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 40 (BK-M18B-40) 265 236 29

12.3%

12.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 0.4 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 42 (BK-M18B-42) 11 12 -1

-8.3%

9.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 0.7 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 44 (BK-M18B-44) 211 655 -444

-67.8%

-66.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 1.0 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 48 (BK-M18B-48) 458 280 178

63.6%

41.4%

Exponential Worse by 22.2 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 52 (BK-M18B-52) 11 34 -23

-67.8%

-70.3%

Regression Better by 2.5 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 40 (BK-M18S-40) 17 18 -1

-5.6%

-32.0%

Exponential Better by 26.4 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 42 (BK-M18S-42) 251 878 -627

-71.4%

-70.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 0.7 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 44 (BK-M18S-44) 398 407 -9

-2.2%

-6.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 4.1 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 48 (BK-M18S-48) 27 42 -15

-35.8%

-30.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 5.2 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 52 (BK-M18S-52) 22 43 -21

-49.2%

-32.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 16.3 %pts
Patch Kit/8 Patches (PK-7098) 77 77 0

0.0%

11.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 11.4 %pts
Racing Socks, L (SO-R809-L) 13 10 3

30.0%

-1.0%

Regression Worse by 29.0 %pts
Racing Socks, M (SO-R809-M) 22 22 0

0.0%

-8.7%

Regression Better by 8.7 %pts
Rear Brakes (RB-9231) 28 29 -1

-3.4%

-4.9%

Exponential Better by 1.5 %pts
Rear Derailleur (RD-2308) 77 77 0

0.0%

2.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 2.6 %pts
Road Bottle Cage (BC-R205) 9 12 -3

-25.0%

-30.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 5.1 %pts
Road Tire Tube (TT-R982) 9 10 -1

-10.0%

22.7%

HoltWinters Better by 12.7 %pts
Road-150 Red, 44 (BK-R93R-44) 16 15 1

6.7%

12.7%

HoltWinters Better by 6.0 %pts
Road-150 Red, 48 (BK-R93R-48) 9 17 -8

-47.5%

-69.7%

HoltWinters Better by 22.3 %pts
Road-150 Red, 52 (BK-R93R-52) 23 16 7

43.8%

58.4%

HoltWinters Better by 14.7 %pts
Road-150 Red, 56 (BK-R93R-56) 21 14 7

50.0%

30.1%

Regression Worse by 19.9 %pts
Road-150 Red, 62 (BK-R93R-62) 22 54 -32

-59.5%

-50.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 9.4 %pts
Road-250 Black, 44 (BK-R89B-44) 381 451 -70

-15.5%

-42.5%

HoltWinters Better by 27.0 %pts
Road-250 Black, 48 (BK-R89B-48) 11 10 1

10.0%

-13.7%

Exponential Better by 3.7 %pts
Road-250 Black, 52 (BK-R89B-52) 22 23 -1

-4.3%

-28.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 23.9 %pts
Road-250 Black, 58 (BK-R89B-58) 36 37 -1

-2.7%

-15.0%

HoltWinters Better by 12.3 %pts
Road-250 Red, 44 (BK-R89R-44) 259 466 -207

-44.4%

-45.9%

Exponential Better by 1.5 %pts
Road-250 Red, 48 (BK-R89R-48) 193 131 62

47.3%

27.4%

Exponential Worse by 19.9 %pts
Road-250 Red, 52 (BK-R89R-52) 13 11 2

18.2%

30.7%

Regression Better by 12.5 %pts
Road-250 Red, 58 (BK-R89R-58) 11 13 -2

-15.4%

-18.7%

HoltWinters Better by 3.3 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R79Y-40) 11 11 0

0.0%

-12.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 12.0 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R79Y-42) 9 20 -11

-55.4%

-57.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 2.2 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R79Y-44) 23 22 1

2.3%

6.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 4.5 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R79Y-48) 17 17 0

0.0%

8.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 8.6 %pts
Road-450 Red, 44 (BK-R68R-44) 26 24 2

8.3%

-4.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 3.9 %pts
Road-450 Red, 48 (BK-R68R-48) 159 374 -215

-57.5%

-40.0%

HoltWinters Worse by 17.5 %pts
Road-450 Red, 52 (BK-R68R-52) 8 8 0

0.0%

-51.2%

HoltWinters Better by 51.2 %pts
Road-450 Red, 58 (BK-R68R-58) 350 319 31

9.7%

9.4%

Exponential Worse by 0.3 %pts
Road-450 Red, 60 (BK-R68R-60) 13 11 2

18.2%

-5.1%

Regression Worse by 13.1 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 38 (BK-R64Y-38) 20 20 0

0.0%

-13.8%

HoltWinters Better by 13.8 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R64Y-40) 19 24 -5

-19.5%

-16.2%

Exponential Worse by 3.2 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R64Y-42) 4 3 1

33.3%

-15.6%

HoltWinters Worse by 17.8 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R64Y-44) 24 21 3

14.3%

7.7%

HoltWinters Worse by 6.6 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R64Y-48) 14 14 0

0.0%

20.9%

HoltWinters Better by 20.9 %pts
Road-650 Black, 44 (BK-R50B-44) 8 6 2

33.3%

58.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 25.6 %pts
Road-650 Black, 48 (BK-R50B-48) 33 55 -22

-40.0%

-50.2%

HoltWinters Better by 10.2 %pts
Road-650 Black, 52 (BK-R50B-52) 17 32 -15

-47.2%

-43.9%

Exponential Worse by 3.3 %pts
Road-650 Black, 58 (BK-R50B-58) 17 15 2

13.3%

3.8%

Exponential Worse by 9.6 %pts
Road-650 Black, 60 (BK-R50B-60) 10 11 -1

-9.1%

-29.0%

Regression Better by 19.9 %pts
Road-650 Black, 62 (BK-R50B-62) 2 2 0

0.0%

26.7%

HoltWinters Better by 26.7 %pts
Road-650 Red, 44 (BK-R50R-44) 17 11 6

54.5%

49.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 4.9 %pts
Road-650 Red, 48 (BK-R50R-48) 10 20 -10

-50.8%

-31.8%

Regression Worse by 19.0 %pts
Road-650 Red, 52 (BK-R50R-52) 372 349 23

6.6%

-10.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 3.9 %pts
Road-650 Red, 58 (BK-R50R-58) 36 68 -32

-47.0%

-45.8%

Regression Worse by 1.2 %pts
Road-650 Red, 60 (BK-R50R-60) 3 2 1

50.0%

20.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 30.0 %pts
Road-650 Red, 62 (BK-R50R-62) 326 366 -40

-10.9%

-17.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 6.6 %pts
Road-750 Black, 44 (BK-R19B-44) 11 11 0

0.0%

-31.8%

HoltWinters Better by 31.8 %pts
Road-750 Black, 48 (BK-R19B-48) 18 17 1

5.9%

11.8%

Exponential Better by 5.9 %pts
Road-750 Black, 52 (BK-R19B-52) 29 33 -4

-12.6%

-40.0%

HoltWinters Better by 27.4 %pts
Road-750 Black, 58 (BK-R19B-58) 16 15 1

6.7%

27.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 20.4 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, L (SJ-0194-L) 25 24 1

4.2%

20.9%

HoltWinters Better by 16.7 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, M (SJ-0194-M) 16 15 1

6.7%

-1.2%

HoltWinters Worse by 5.5 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, S (SJ-0194-S) 409 399 10

2.5%

-3.1%

HoltWinters Better by 0.5 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, XL (SJ-0194-X) 25 27 -2

-7.4%

-23.1%

HoltWinters Better by 15.7 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Black (HL-U509) 14 12 2

16.7%

5.5%

HoltWinters Worse by 11.1 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Blue (HL-U509-B) 23 23 0

0.0%

91.4%

HoltWinters Better by 91.4 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Red (HL-U509-R) 42 43 -1

-2.3%

17.1%

HoltWinters Better by 14.8 %pts
Taillights - Battery-Powered (LT-T990) 20 20 0

0.0%

11.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 11.3 %pts
Touring Front Wheel (FW-T905) 12 9 3

33.3%

66.5%

Regression Better by 33.1 %pts
Touring Pedal (PD-T852) 22 23 -1

-4.3%

11.9%

HoltWinters Better by 7.6 %pts
Touring Rear Wheel (RW-T905) 83 63 20

31.7%

80.8%

HoltWinters Better by 49.0 %pts
Touring Tire (TI-T723) 1 1 0

0.0%

157.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 157.1 %pts
Touring Tire Tube (TT-T092) 41 42 -1

-2.4%

73.5%

HoltWinters Better by 71.1 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 46 (BK-T79U-46) 34 36 -2

-5.6%

-0.0%

HoltWinters Worse by 5.5 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 50 (BK-T79U-50) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Touring-1000 Blue, 54 (BK-T79U-54) 15 14 1

7.1%

0.0%

Exponential Worse by 7.1 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 60 (BK-T79U-60) 346 608 -262

-43.1%

-25.0%

HoltWinters Worse by 18.1 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 46 (BK-T79Y-46) 12 11 1

9.1%

25.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 16.4 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T79Y-50) 8 8 0

0.0%

-10.5%

Exponential Better by 10.5 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T79Y-54) 174 469 -295

-62.9%

-84.9%

HoltWinters Better by 22.0 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 60 (BK-T79Y-60) 7 6 1

16.7%

16.3%

HoltWinters Worse by 0.4 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 46 (BK-T44U-46) 36 28 8

28.6%

46.4%

HoltWinters Better by 17.9 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 50 (BK-T44U-50) 20 28 -8

-28.8%

-55.5%

HoltWinters Better by 26.7 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 54 (BK-T44U-54) 35 56 -21

-37.5%

-39.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 1.9 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 60 (BK-T44U-60) 18 17 1

5.9%

-19.8%

HoltWinters Better by 14.0 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 44 (BK-T18U-44) 25 20 5

25.0%

33.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 8.2 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 50 (BK-T18U-50) 7 8 -1

-12.5%

-28.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 16.1 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 54 (BK-T18U-54) 14 14 0

0.0%

-7.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 7.6 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 58 (BK-T18U-58) 15 49 -34

-69.2%

-58.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 10.5 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 62 (BK-T18U-62) 10 10 0

0.0%

-16.2%

Regression Better by 16.2 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 44 (BK-T18Y-44) 204 225 -21

-9.3%

33.9%

HoltWinters Better by 24.6 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T18Y-50) 328 262 66

25.2%

39.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 14.5 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T18Y-54) 48 44 4

9.1%

21.7%

Regression Better by 12.6 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 58 (BK-T18Y-58) 8 18 -10

-54.6%

-47.4%

HoltWinters Worse by 7.3 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 62 (BK-T18Y-62) 108 137 -29

-21.2%

-13.0%

HoltWinters Worse by 8.2 %pts
Touring-Panniers, Large (PA-T100) 489 517 -28

-5.4%

-8.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 3.0 %pts
Water Bottle - 30 oz. (WB-H098) 2 2 0

0.0%

-45.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 45.2 %pts
Women's Mountain Shorts, L (SH-W890-L) 19 23 -4

-17.4%

-26.5%

Regression Better by 9.1 %pts
Women's Mountain Shorts, M (SH-W890-M) 28 31 -3

-9.7%

-7.2%

HoltWinters Worse by 2.4 %pts
Women's Mountain Shorts, S (SH-W890-S) 3 3 0

0.0%

-18.0%

HoltWinters Better by 18.0 %pts
Women's Tights, L (TG-W091-L) 288 235 53

22.6%

-43.3%

HoltWinters Better by 20.8 %pts
Women's Tights, M (TG-W091-M) 264 244 20

8.2%

-36.4%

HoltWinters Better by 28.3 %pts
Women's Tights, S (TG-W091-S) 2 2 0

0.0%

40.5%

HoltWinters Better by 40.5 %pts
Total 20,102 22,477 -2,375 -10.6% -13.7%   Better in 217 out of 299 items (72.6%)
Weighted Average % Error 25.7% Weighted Average % Error (Alt) 23.9% Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) 15.2% Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) 20.0
Weighted Average % Error-Statistics 32.4% Weighted Average % Error (Alt)-Statistics 7.3% Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)-Statistics 26.5% Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)-Statistics 24.4

Value Added Reseller(United Kingdom) - Prepared in Jul - Period of sale: Aug
Forecast Actual Variance Percent Error Stats Pct Error Best Algorithm Human vs. Statistics
All-Purpose Bike Stand (ST-1401) 73 46 27

58.7%

51.4%

Exponential Worse by 7.3 %pts
AWC Logo Cap (CA-1098) 178 156 22

14.1%

43.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 29.3 %pts
Bike Wash - Dissolver (CL-9009) 7 7 0

0.0%

0.0%

LY+YOY Growth% The same
Cable Lock (LO-C100) 6 6 0

0.0%

23.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 23.8 %pts
Chain (CH-0234) 1 1 0

0.0%

-100.0%

Regression Better by 100.0 %pts
Classic Vest, L (VE-C304-L) 1 1 0

0.0%

-20.1%

HoltWinters Better by 20.1 %pts
Classic Vest, M (VE-C304-M) 10 7 3

42.9%

41.4%

Exponential Worse by 1.4 %pts
Classic Vest, S (VE-C304-S) 17 15 2

13.3%

1.5%

Regression Worse by 11.8 %pts
Fender Set - Mountain (FE-6654) 8 7 1

14.3%

14.3%

LY+YOY Growth% The same
Front Brakes (FB-9873) 10 10 0

0.0%

-28.3%

HoltWinters Better by 28.3 %pts
Front Derailleur (FD-2342) 1 1 0

0.0%

-24.0%

HoltWinters Better by 24.0 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, L (GL-F110-L) 194 242 -48

-19.8%

9.8%

Regression Worse by 10.1 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, M (GL-F110-M) 5 4 1

25.0%

-22.2%

HoltWinters Worse by 2.8 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, S (GL-F110-S) 19 21 -2

-9.5%

-32.1%

HoltWinters Better by 22.6 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, L (GL-H102-L) 21 23 -2

-8.7%

-21.5%

HoltWinters Better by 12.8 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, M (GL-H102-M) 49 47 2

4.3%

-8.0%

HoltWinters Better by 3.8 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, S (GL-H102-S) 11 10 1

10.0%

-35.4%

HoltWinters Better by 25.4 %pts
Headlights - Dual-Beam (LT-H902) 231 282 -51

-18.1%

-47.5%

HoltWinters Better by 29.4 %pts
Hitch Rack - 4-Bike (RA-H123) 6 7 -1

-14.3%

-24.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 10.2 %pts
HL Bottom Bracket (BB-9108) 11 11 0

0.0%

-22.5%

HoltWinters Better by 22.5 %pts
HL Fork (FK-9939) 8 8 0

0.0%

-29.9%

HoltWinters Better by 29.9 %pts
HL Headset (HS-3479) 4 4 0

0.0%

-10.9%

HoltWinters Better by 10.9 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M94B-38) 2 2 0

0.0%

5.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 5.9 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M94B-42) 16 13 3

23.1%

4.6%

Regression Worse by 18.5 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M94B-44) 2 2 0

0.0%

-34.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 34.6 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 46 (FR-M94B-46) 2 2 0

0.0%

-40.9%

Regression Better by 40.9 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M94B-48) 16 17 -1

-5.9%

-6.5%

HoltWinters Better by 0.6 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 38 (FR-M94S-38) 7 7 0

0.0%

30.2%

HoltWinters Better by 30.2 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M94S-42) 10 7 3

42.9%

101.6%

HoltWinters Better by 58.8 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M94S-44) 19 19 0

0.0%

-19.8%

HoltWinters Better by 19.8 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 46 (FR-M94S-46) 3 3 0

0.0%

5.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 5.9 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M94S-52) 18 12 6

50.0%

10.9%

Regression Worse by 39.1 %pts
HL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M928) 1 1 0

0.0%

-100.0%

Regression Better by 100.0 %pts
HL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M918) 26 23 3

13.0%

45.8%

HoltWinters Better by 32.7 %pts
HL Mountain Pedal (PD-M562) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
HL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M940) 10 9 1

11.1%

26.2%

HoltWinters Better by 15.1 %pts
HL Mountain Tire (TI-M823) 16 16 0

0.0%

-28.4%

HoltWinters Better by 28.4 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R92B-44) 18 18 0

0.0%

-36.5%

HoltWinters Better by 36.5 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R92B-48) 321 287 34

11.8%

31.7%

HoltWinters Better by 19.8 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R92B-52) 234 208 26

12.5%

-38.9%

HoltWinters Better by 26.4 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R92B-58) 24 24 0

0.0%

-9.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 9.7 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R92B-62) 13 13 0

0.0%

-5.7%

Exponential Better by 5.7 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R92R-44) 62 52 10

19.2%

10.6%

HoltWinters Worse by 8.6 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R92R-48) 8 8 0

0.0%

44.8%

Regression Better by 44.8 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R92R-52) 2 2 0

0.0%

-41.8%

HoltWinters Better by 41.8 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 56 (FR-R92R-56) 13 13 0

0.0%

-47.5%

HoltWinters Better by 47.5 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R92R-58) 8 9 -1

-11.1%

-13.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 2.0 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R92R-62) 35 35 0

0.0%

-6.6%

HoltWinters Better by 6.6 %pts
HL Road Front Wheel (FW-R820) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
HL Road Handlebars (HB-R956) 4 4 0

0.0%

25.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 25.0 %pts
HL Road Pedal (PD-R853) 12 15 -3

-20.0%

-47.1%

HoltWinters Better by 27.1 %pts
HL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R820) 15 14 1

7.1%

-12.8%

HoltWinters Better by 5.6 %pts
HL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R995) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
HL Road Tire (TI-R982) 7 7 0

0.0%

-10.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 10.6 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 46 (FR-T98U-46) 20 19 1

5.3%

22.0%

HoltWinters Better by 16.8 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T98U-50) 8 9 -1

-11.1%

-23.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 12.1 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T98U-54) 12 11 1

9.1%

-1.7%

Regression Worse by 7.3 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 60 (FR-T98U-60) 33 31 2

6.5%

0.9%

Exponential Worse by 5.5 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 46 (FR-T98Y-46) 161 155 6

3.9%

17.4%

HoltWinters Better by 13.5 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T98Y-50) 12 12 0

0.0%

41.4%

HoltWinters Better by 41.4 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T98Y-54) 63 60 3

5.0%

-36.8%

HoltWinters Better by 31.8 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 60 (FR-T98Y-60) 14 14 0

0.0%

-9.5%

Exponential Better by 9.5 %pts
HL Touring Handlebars (HB-T928) 2 2 0

0.0%

-50.0%

Regression Better by 50.0 %pts
HL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T924) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Hydration Pack - 70 oz. (HY-1023-70) 23 24 -1

-4.2%

-2.7%

HoltWinters Worse by 1.5 %pts
LL Bottom Bracket (BB-7421) 3 3 0

0.0%

11.5%

HoltWinters Better by 11.5 %pts
LL Crankset (CS-4759) 13 11 2

18.2%

42.0%

Exponential Better by 23.8 %pts
LL Fork (FK-1639) 8 8 0

0.0%

59.6%

HoltWinters Better by 59.6 %pts
LL Headset (HS-0296) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M21B-40) 20 22 -2

-9.1%

-22.0%

HoltWinters Better by 12.9 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M21B-42) 22 19 3

15.8%

56.9%

HoltWinters Better by 41.1 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M21B-44) 3 3 0

0.0%

44.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 44.1 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M21B-48) 12 12 0

0.0%

27.1%

Regression Better by 27.1 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 52 (FR-M21B-52) 42 36 6

16.7%

23.5%

Exponential Better by 6.8 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 40 (FR-M21S-40) 292 293 -1

-0.3%

-21.1%

Regression Better by 20.8 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M21S-42) 7 5 2

40.0%

36.1%

HoltWinters Worse by 3.9 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M21S-44) 66 48 18

37.5%

69.7%

HoltWinters Better by 32.2 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M21S-48) 4 4 0

0.0%

-2.0%

HoltWinters Better by 2.0 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 52 (FR-M21S-52) 10 10 0

0.0%

20.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 20.0 %pts
LL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M423) 3 3 0

0.0%

11.2%

HoltWinters Better by 11.2 %pts
LL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M243) 5 5 0

0.0%

-20.0%

Regression Better by 20.0 %pts
LL Mountain Pedal (PD-M282) 8 8 0

0.0%

-5.5%

HoltWinters Better by 5.5 %pts
LL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M423) 11 8 3

37.5%

42.0%

HoltWinters Better by 4.5 %pts
LL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M236) 14 14 0

0.0%

8.6%

Exponential Better by 8.6 %pts
LL Mountain Tire (TI-M267) 16 13 3

23.1%

8.7%

Exponential Worse by 14.4 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R38B-44) 3 3 0

0.0%

24.3%

HoltWinters Better by 24.3 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R38B-48) 23 19 4

21.1%

10.8%

HoltWinters Worse by 10.3 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R38B-52) 10 10 0

0.0%

6.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 6.0 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R38B-58) 10 11 -1

-9.1%

-7.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 1.5 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 60 (FR-R38B-60) 8 5 3

60.0%

61.0%

Regression Better by 1.0 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R38B-62) 2 2 0

0.0%

6.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 6.2 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R38R-44) 333 359 -26

-7.2%

-20.2%

HoltWinters Better by 12.9 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R38R-48) 5 4 1

25.0%

67.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 42.5 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R38R-52) 12 11 1

9.1%

-1.4%

HoltWinters Worse by 7.7 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R38R-58) 193 220 -27

-12.3%

-9.2%

Regression Worse by 3.1 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R38R-60) 12 9 3

33.3%

42.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 9.1 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R38R-62) 7 7 0

0.0%

0.0%

LY+YOY Growth% The same
LL Road Front Wheel (FW-R623) 13 10 3

30.0%

77.5%

Regression Better by 47.5 %pts
LL Road Handlebars (HB-R504) 7 7 0

0.0%

14.1%

Regression Better by 14.1 %pts
LL Road Pedal (PD-R347) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
LL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R623) 1 1 0

0.0%

11.9%

Regression Better by 11.9 %pts
LL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R581) 101 85 16

18.8%

20.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 1.3 %pts
LL Road Tire (TI-R092) 2 2 0

0.0%

65.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 65.5 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 44 (FR-T67U-44) 19 14 5

35.7%

34.4%

Exponential Worse by 1.3 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T67U-50) 12 11 1

9.1%

12.7%

Exponential Better by 3.6 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T67U-54) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 58 (FR-T67U-58) 3 3 0

0.0%

-22.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 22.7 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 62 (FR-T67U-62) 11 12 -1

-8.3%

9.2%

Regression Better by 0.9 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 44 (FR-T67Y-44) 1 1 0

0.0%

140.3%

HoltWinters Better by 140.3 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T67Y-50) 4 4 0

0.0%

0.0%

LY+YOY Growth% The same
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T67Y-54) 26 26 0

0.0%

5.8%

HoltWinters Better by 5.8 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 58 (FR-T67Y-58) 16 17 -1

-5.9%

11.3%

Regression Better by 5.4 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 62 (FR-T67Y-62) 3 3 0

0.0%

26.7%

Regression Better by 26.7 %pts
LL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T312) 4 4 0

0.0%

-12.8%

HoltWinters Better by 12.8 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, L (LJ-0192-L) 2 2 0

0.0%

3.8%

HoltWinters Better by 3.8 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, M (LJ-0192-M) 279 177 102

57.6%

79.9%

Exponential Better by 22.2 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, S (LJ-0192-S) 19 13 6

46.2%

36.5%

HoltWinters Worse by 9.7 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, XL (LJ-0192-X) 11 13 -2

-15.4%

-13.1%

HoltWinters Worse by 2.2 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, L (SB-M891-L) 7 7 0

0.0%

22.5%

HoltWinters Better by 22.5 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, M (SB-M891-M) 10 10 0

0.0%

24.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 24.3 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, S (SB-M891-S) 251 184 67

36.4%

39.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 3.1 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, L (SH-M897-L) 15 13 2

15.4%

23.6%

Regression Better by 8.2 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, M (SH-M897-M) 14 14 0

0.0%

12.1%

HoltWinters Better by 12.1 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, S (SH-M897-S) 49 51 -2

-3.9%

-14.9%

HoltWinters Better by 10.9 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, XL (SH-M897-X) 2 2 0

0.0%

9.0%

HoltWinters Better by 9.0 %pts
Minipump (PU-0452) 278 242 36

14.9%

-31.1%

HoltWinters Better by 16.2 %pts
ML Bottom Bracket (BB-8107) 185 199 -14

-7.0%

-7.7%

Exponential Better by 0.7 %pts
ML Crankset (CS-6583) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
ML Fork (FK-5136) 22 19 3

15.8%

18.3%

HoltWinters Better by 2.5 %pts
ML Headset (HS-2451) 3 3 0

0.0%

-36.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 36.0 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M63B-38) 1 1 0

0.0%

1.3%

Regression Better by 1.3 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M63B-40) 6 5 1

20.0%

86.8%

HoltWinters Better by 66.8 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M63B-48) 195 153 42

27.5%

57.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 29.9 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 38 (FR-M63S-38) 2 2 0

0.0%

-4.8%

Exponential Better by 4.8 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 40 (FR-M63S-40) 2 2 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 42 (FR-M63S-42) 4 4 0

0.0%

7.8%

Exponential Better by 7.8 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 46 (FR-M63S-46) 47 47 0

0.0%

-4.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 4.1 %pts
ML Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M762) 6 7 -1

-14.3%

-40.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 26.6 %pts
ML Mountain Handlebars (HB-M763) 8 9 -1

-11.1%

-12.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 1.7 %pts
ML Mountain Pedal (PD-M340) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
ML Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M762) 4 4 0

0.0%

39.3%

HoltWinters Better by 39.3 %pts
ML Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M798) 4 4 0

0.0%

-40.7%

Exponential Better by 40.7 %pts
ML Mountain Tire (TI-M602) 21 22 -1

-4.5%

-19.4%

Exponential Better by 14.9 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R72R-44) 13 10 3

30.0%

54.2%

HoltWinters Better by 24.2 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R72R-48) 23 21 2

9.5%

1.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 8.0 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R72R-52) 99 95 4

4.2%

10.4%

Regression Better by 6.2 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R72R-58) 9 9 0

0.0%

-48.0%

HoltWinters Better by 48.0 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R72R-60) 16 11 5

45.5%

17.5%

HoltWinters Worse by 27.9 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 38 (FR-R72Y-38) 6 5 1

20.0%

30.7%

Exponential Better by 10.7 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 40 (FR-R72Y-40) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 42 (FR-R72Y-42) 28 25 3

12.0%

-14.6%

Regression Better by 2.6 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 44 (FR-R72Y-44) 2 2 0

0.0%

66.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 66.7 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 48 (FR-R72Y-48) 11 11 0

0.0%

-26.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 26.5 %pts
ML Road Front Wheel (FW-R762) 46 50 -4

-8.0%

-35.0%

Exponential Better by 27.0 %pts
ML Road Handlebars (HB-R720) 12 12 0

0.0%

-13.0%

Exponential Better by 13.0 %pts
ML Road Pedal (PD-R563) 230 261 -31

-11.9%

-24.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 13.0 %pts
ML Road Rear Wheel (RW-R762) 7 7 0

0.0%

3.8%

HoltWinters Better by 3.8 %pts
ML Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R908) 12 12 0

0.0%

-46.9%

HoltWinters Better by 46.9 %pts
ML Road Tire (TI-R628) 6 6 0

0.0%

5.9%

Regression Better by 5.9 %pts
ML Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T762) 24 25 -1

-4.0%

-13.7%

HoltWinters Better by 9.7 %pts
Mountain Bike Socks, L (SO-B909-L) 17 18 -1

-5.6%

-22.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 16.6 %pts
Mountain Bottle Cage (BC-M005) 7 7 0

0.0%

-0.5%

HoltWinters Better by 0.5 %pts
Mountain Pump (PU-M044) 2 2 0

0.0%

52.3%

HoltWinters Better by 52.3 %pts
Mountain Tire Tube (TT-M928) 6 6 0

0.0%

7.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 7.0 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 38 (BK-M82B-38) 1 1 0

0.0%

-100.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 100.0 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 42 (BK-M82B-42) 240 244 -4

-1.6%

10.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 8.7 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 44 (BK-M82B-44) 15 13 2

15.4%

36.8%

HoltWinters Better by 21.4 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 48 (BK-M82B-48) 12 13 -1

-7.7%

-5.7%

HoltWinters Worse by 2.0 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 38 (BK-M82S-38) 20 24 -4

-16.7%

-30.0%

Regression Better by 13.3 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 42 (BK-M82S-42) 13 10 3

30.0%

33.1%

HoltWinters Better by 3.1 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 44 (BK-M82S-44) 3 3 0

0.0%

-37.8%

HoltWinters Better by 37.8 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 48 (BK-M82S-48) 6 6 0

0.0%

20.0%

HoltWinters Better by 20.0 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 38 (BK-M68B-38) 9 10 -1

-10.0%

17.1%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 7.1 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 42 (BK-M68B-42) 19 16 3

18.8%

24.1%

HoltWinters Better by 5.4 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 46 (BK-M68B-46) 3 3 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Mountain-200 Silver, 38 (BK-M68S-38) 64 67 -3

-4.5%

-16.1%

HoltWinters Better by 11.6 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 42 (BK-M68S-42) 2 2 0

0.0%

-49.8%

HoltWinters Better by 49.8 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 46 (BK-M68S-46) 4 4 0

0.0%

74.0%

HoltWinters Better by 74.0 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 38 (BK-M47B-38) 12 12 0

0.0%

4.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 4.7 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 40 (BK-M47B-40) 261 257 4

1.6%

23.6%

Regression Better by 22.0 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 44 (BK-M47B-44) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Mountain-300 Black, 48 (BK-M47B-48) 4 4 0

0.0%

-4.8%

Regression Better by 4.8 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 38 (BK-M38S-38) 3 3 0

0.0%

-22.7%

HoltWinters Better by 22.7 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 40 (BK-M38S-40) 202 122 80

65.6%

118.5%

HoltWinters Better by 52.9 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 42 (BK-M38S-42) 11 11 0

0.0%

11.2%

HoltWinters Better by 11.2 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 46 (BK-M38S-46) 18 19 -1

-5.3%

30.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 24.8 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 40 (BK-M18B-40) 85 64 21

32.8%

28.4%

Exponential Worse by 4.4 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 42 (BK-M18B-42) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Mountain-500 Black, 44 (BK-M18B-44) 177 138 39

28.3%

62.9%

HoltWinters Better by 34.6 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 48 (BK-M18B-48) 143 132 11

8.3%

21.3%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 13.0 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 52 (BK-M18B-52) 8 8 0

0.0%

8.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 8.7 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 40 (BK-M18S-40) 17 20 -3

-15.0%

-2.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 12.6 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 42 (BK-M18S-42) 254 261 -7

-2.7%

-16.8%

HoltWinters Better by 14.1 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 44 (BK-M18S-44) 157 143 14

9.8%

14.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 5.0 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 48 (BK-M18S-48) 3 3 0

0.0%

4.8%

HoltWinters Better by 4.8 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 52 (BK-M18S-52) 10 10 0

0.0%

-10.5%

Regression Better by 10.5 %pts
Patch Kit/8 Patches (PK-7098) 191 145 46

31.7%

11.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 20.0 %pts
Racing Socks, L (SO-R809-L) 3 3 0

0.0%

-0.2%

HoltWinters Better by 0.2 %pts
Racing Socks, M (SO-R809-M) 25 26 -1

-3.8%

12.4%

HoltWinters Better by 8.5 %pts
Rear Brakes (RB-9231) 4 4 0

0.0%

-13.0%

HoltWinters Better by 13.0 %pts
Rear Derailleur (RD-2308) 443 374 69

18.4%

-20.5%

HoltWinters Better by 2.0 %pts
Road Bottle Cage (BC-R205) 12 12 0

0.0%

-34.6%

Exponential Better by 34.6 %pts
Road Tire Tube (TT-R982) 2 2 0

0.0%

40.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 40.0 %pts
Road-150 Red, 44 (BK-R93R-44) 2 2 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Road-150 Red, 48 (BK-R93R-48) 4 3 1

33.3%

37.5%

HoltWinters Better by 4.2 %pts
Road-150 Red, 52 (BK-R93R-52) 12 10 2

20.0%

48.2%

HoltWinters Better by 28.2 %pts
Road-150 Red, 56 (BK-R93R-56) 13 14 -1

-7.1%

25.5%

Regression Better by 18.3 %pts
Road-150 Red, 62 (BK-R93R-62) 12 13 -1

-7.7%

-11.4%

Regression Better by 3.7 %pts
Road-250 Black, 44 (BK-R89B-44) 335 278 57

20.5%

27.3%

Regression Better by 6.8 %pts
Road-250 Black, 48 (BK-R89B-48) 49 55 -6

-10.9%

-13.9%

Regression Better by 3.0 %pts
Road-250 Black, 52 (BK-R89B-52) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Road-250 Black, 58 (BK-R89B-58) 9 9 0

0.0%

-22.6%

HoltWinters Better by 22.6 %pts
Road-250 Red, 44 (BK-R89R-44) 142 110 32

29.1%

43.9%

HoltWinters Better by 14.9 %pts
Road-250 Red, 48 (BK-R89R-48) 70 69 1

1.4%

-23.0%

Regression Better by 21.5 %pts
Road-250 Red, 52 (BK-R89R-52) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Road-250 Red, 58 (BK-R89R-58) 19 15 4

26.7%

18.0%

Regression Worse by 8.7 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R79Y-40) 10 10 0

0.0%

24.3%

Regression Better by 24.3 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R79Y-44) 27 23 4

17.4%

18.2%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 0.8 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R79Y-48) 8 8 0

0.0%

14.7%

Regression Better by 14.7 %pts
Road-450 Red, 44 (BK-R68R-44) 3 3 0

0.0%

-22.6%

Exponential Better by 22.6 %pts
Road-450 Red, 48 (BK-R68R-48) 148 177 -29

-16.4%

28.3%

Exponential Better by 11.9 %pts
Road-450 Red, 52 (BK-R68R-52) 3 3 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Road-450 Red, 58 (BK-R68R-58) 220 256 -36

-14.1%

11.9%

Exponential Worse by 2.1 %pts
Road-450 Red, 60 (BK-R68R-60) 6 6 0

0.0%

-4.9%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 4.9 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 38 (BK-R64Y-38) 13 13 0

0.0%

8.6%

Exponential Better by 8.6 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R64Y-40) 11 10 1

10.0%

30.6%

Exponential Better by 20.6 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R64Y-42) 2 2 0

0.0%

-18.7%

Regression Better by 18.7 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R64Y-44) 13 9 4

44.4%

43.5%

Exponential Worse by 1.0 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R64Y-48) 20 17 3

17.6%

7.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 10.2 %pts
Road-650 Black, 44 (BK-R50B-44) 13 15 -2

-13.3%

-33.3%

HoltWinters Better by 19.9 %pts
Road-650 Black, 52 (BK-R50B-52) 3 3 0

0.0%

-17.6%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 17.6 %pts
Road-650 Black, 58 (BK-R50B-58) 9 10 -1

-10.0%

8.2%

Exponential Worse by 1.8 %pts
Road-650 Black, 60 (BK-R50B-60) 1 1 0

0.0%

-10.9%

HoltWinters Better by 10.9 %pts
Road-650 Black, 62 (BK-R50B-62) 11 8 3

37.5%

34.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 3.0 %pts
Road-650 Red, 44 (BK-R50R-44) 1 1 0

0.0%

-24.4%

HoltWinters Better by 24.4 %pts
Road-650 Red, 48 (BK-R50R-48) 6 6 0

0.0%

19.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 19.7 %pts
Road-650 Red, 52 (BK-R50R-52) 30 24 6

25.0%

-8.9%

HoltWinters Worse by 16.1 %pts
Road-650 Red, 58 (BK-R50R-58) 18 17 1

5.9%

8.5%

HoltWinters Better by 2.6 %pts
Road-650 Red, 60 (BK-R50R-60) 13 12 1

8.3%

-2.6%

HoltWinters Worse by 5.8 %pts
Road-650 Red, 62 (BK-R50R-62) 329 376 -47

-12.5%

-15.8%

Regression Better by 3.3 %pts
Road-750 Black, 44 (BK-R19B-44) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Road-750 Black, 48 (BK-R19B-48) 12 11 1

9.1%

16.6%

Exponential Better by 7.5 %pts
Road-750 Black, 52 (BK-R19B-52) 3 3 0

0.0%

-43.7%

HoltWinters Better by 43.7 %pts
Road-750 Black, 58 (BK-R19B-58) 7 4 3

75.0%

144.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 69.4 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, L (SJ-0194-L) 2 2 0

0.0%

20.8%

HoltWinters Better by 20.8 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, M (SJ-0194-M) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, S (SJ-0194-S) 190 191 -1

-0.5%

-32.5%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 32.0 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, XL (SJ-0194-X) 1 1 0

0.0%

69.8%

HoltWinters Better by 69.8 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Black (HL-U509) 4 4 0

0.0%

-26.5%

HoltWinters Better by 26.5 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Blue (HL-U509-B) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Sport-100 Helmet, Red (HL-U509-R) 9 9 0

0.0%

21.4%

HoltWinters Better by 21.4 %pts
Touring Front Wheel (FW-T905) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Touring Pedal (PD-T852) 18 19 -1

-5.3%

-4.9%

Exponential Worse by 0.4 %pts
Touring Rear Wheel (RW-T905) 291 183 108

59.0%

29.1%

HoltWinters Worse by 29.9 %pts
Touring Tire (TI-T723) 6 6 0

0.0%

0.0%

LY+YOY Growth% The same
Touring Tire Tube (TT-T092) 6 6 0

0.0%

4.4%

HoltWinters Better by 4.4 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 46 (BK-T79U-46) 2 2 0

0.0%

0.3%

HoltWinters Better by 0.3 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 50 (BK-T79U-50) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Touring-1000 Blue, 54 (BK-T79U-54) 11 13 -2

-15.4%

10.5%

HoltWinters Worse by 4.9 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 60 (BK-T79U-60) 225 226 -1

-0.4%

-20.7%

HoltWinters Better by 20.3 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 46 (BK-T79Y-46) 14 15 -1

-6.7%

-24.6%

Regression Better by 17.9 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T79Y-50) 13 14 -1

-7.1%

-3.7%

Exponential Worse by 3.4 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T79Y-54) 229 285 -56

-19.6%

-19.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 0.2 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 60 (BK-T79Y-60) 1 1 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Touring-2000 Blue, 46 (BK-T44U-46) 1 1 0

0.0%

-100.0%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 100.0 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 50 (BK-T44U-50) 2 2 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Touring-2000 Blue, 54 (BK-T44U-54) 1 1 0

0.0%

6.7%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 6.7 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 60 (BK-T44U-60) 10 12 -2

-16.7%

2.4%

LY+YOY Growth% Worse by 14.2 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 44 (BK-T18U-44) 3 3 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Touring-3000 Blue, 50 (BK-T18U-50) 8 8 0

0.0%

10.6%

Regression Better by 10.6 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 54 (BK-T18U-54) 2 2 0

0.0%

0.0%

Regression The same
Touring-3000 Blue, 62 (BK-T18U-62) 16 14 2

14.3%

23.1%

Regression Better by 8.8 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 44 (BK-T18Y-44) 109 96 13

13.5%

2.7%

Exponential Worse by 10.8 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T18Y-50) 287 245 42

17.1%

-36.1%

HoltWinters Better by 19.0 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T18Y-54) 124 109 15

13.8%

19.8%

LY+YOY Growth% Better by 6.0 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 58 (BK-T18Y-58) 7 5 2

40.0%

27.3%

Regression Worse by 12.7 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 62 (BK-T18Y-62) 61 51 10

19.6%

9.0%

HoltWinters Worse by 10.6 %pts
Touring-Panniers, Large (PA-T100) 240 241 -1

-0.4%