11 October 2021
| Forecast | Actual | Variance | Percent Error | Stats Pct Error | Best Algorithm | Human vs. Statistics | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All-Purpose Bike Stand (ST-1401) | 106 | 104 | 2 | 1.9% |
18.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 16.5 %pts |
| AWC Logo Cap (CA-1098) | 125 | 132 | -7 | -5.3% |
-25.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 20.0 %pts |
| Bike Wash - Dissolver (CL-9009) | 11 | 12 | -1 | -8.3% |
-6.2% |
Regression | Worse by 2.1 %pts |
| Cable Lock (LO-C100) | 17 | 19 | -2 | -10.5% |
0.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 9.8 %pts |
| Chain (CH-0234) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-50.0% |
Regression | Better by 50.0 %pts |
| Classic Vest, L (VE-C304-L) | 16 | 19 | -3 | -15.8% |
-31.8% |
Regression | Better by 16.0 %pts |
| Classic Vest, M (VE-C304-M) | 16 | 17 | -1 | -5.9% |
-2.1% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 3.8 %pts |
| Classic Vest, S (VE-C304-S) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
16.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 16.3 %pts |
| Fender Set - Mountain (FE-6654) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
7.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 7.1 %pts |
| Front Brakes (FB-9873) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
6.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 6.0 %pts |
| Front Derailleur (FD-2342) | 17 | 18 | -1 | -5.6% |
-9.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 3.6 %pts |
| Full-Finger Gloves, L (GL-F110-L) | 35 | 32 | 3 | 9.4% |
6.7% |
Regression | Worse by 2.7 %pts |
| Full-Finger Gloves, S (GL-F110-S) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
23.0% |
Regression | Better by 23.0 %pts |
| Half-Finger Gloves, L (GL-H102-L) | 8 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% |
23.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 9.5 %pts |
| Half-Finger Gloves, M (GL-H102-M) | 260 | 227 | 33 | 14.5% |
-39.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 25.0 %pts |
| Half-Finger Gloves, S (GL-H102-S) | 12 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% |
-4.7% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 4.4 %pts |
| Headlights - Dual-Beam (LT-H902) | 26 | 20 | 6 | 30.0% |
19.1% |
Regression | Worse by 10.9 %pts |
| Headlights - Weatherproof (LT-H903) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-33.8% |
Exponential | Better by 33.8 %pts |
| Hitch Rack - 4-Bike (RA-H123) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-36.8% |
Regression | Better by 36.8 %pts |
| HL Bottom Bracket (BB-9108) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-50.0% |
Regression | Better by 50.0 %pts |
| HL Crankset (CS-9183) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
-100.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 100.0 %pts |
| HL Fork (FK-9939) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| HL Headset (HS-3479) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
5.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 5.9 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M94B-38) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
-31.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 31.7 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M94B-42) | 7 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% |
20.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 3.6 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M94B-44) | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% |
-12.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 12.8 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 46 (FR-M94B-46) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
37.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 37.1 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M94B-48) | 14 | 18 | -4 | -22.2% |
-17.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 4.9 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 38 (FR-M94S-38) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
-18.2% |
Regression | Better by 18.2 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M94S-42) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-0.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 0.6 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M94S-44) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-46.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 46.9 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 46 (FR-M94S-46) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
16.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 16.7 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M94S-52) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-11.1% |
Exponential | Better by 11.1 %pts |
| HL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M928) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
128.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 128.8 %pts |
| HL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M918) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| HL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M928) | 11 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% |
72.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 34.8 %pts |
| HL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M940) | 9 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% |
-18.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 5.9 %pts |
| HL Mountain Tire (TI-M823) | 13 | 14 | -1 | -7.1% |
-28.9% |
Regression | Better by 21.8 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R92B-44) | 20 | 20 | 0 | 0.0% |
-3.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 3.4 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R92B-48) | 20 | 18 | 2 | 11.1% |
17.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 6.3 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R92B-52) | 221 | 165 | 56 | 33.9% |
-11.4% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 22.5 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R92B-58) | 17 | 17 | 0 | 0.0% |
-25.1% |
Exponential | Better by 25.1 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R92B-62) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-48.0% |
Exponential | Better by 48.0 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R92R-44) | 66 | 68 | -2 | -2.9% |
-9.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 6.9 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R92R-48) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-1.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 1.4 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R92R-52) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
12.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 12.6 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 56 (FR-R92R-56) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R92R-58) | 12 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% |
13.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 4.1 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R92R-62) | 203 | 197 | 6 | 3.0% |
-41.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 37.9 %pts |
| HL Road Front Wheel (FW-R820) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
28.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 28.9 %pts |
| HL Road Handlebars (HB-R956) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-1.0% |
Exponential | Better by 1.0 %pts |
| HL Road Pedal (PD-R853) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
9.9% |
Regression | Better by 9.9 %pts |
| HL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R820) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
12.4% |
Regression | Better by 12.4 %pts |
| HL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R995) | 15 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% |
36.9% |
Regression | Better by 0.5 %pts |
| HL Road Tire (TI-R982) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
19.0% |
Exponential | Better by 19.0 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Blue, 46 (FR-T98U-46) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-28.2% |
Regression | Better by 28.2 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T98U-50) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
54.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 54.6 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T98U-54) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
11.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 11.7 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Blue, 60 (FR-T98U-60) | 15 | 15 | 0 | 0.0% |
11.7% |
Regression | Better by 11.7 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 46 (FR-T98Y-46) | 92 | 86 | 6 | 7.0% |
29.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 22.8 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T98Y-50) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
6.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 6.2 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T98Y-54) | 52 | 50 | 2 | 4.0% |
5.8% |
Regression | Better by 1.8 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 60 (FR-T98Y-60) | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% |
46.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 46.1 %pts |
| HL Touring Handlebars (HB-T928) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
87.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 87.5 %pts |
| HL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T924) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-8.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 8.6 %pts |
| Hydration Pack - 70 oz. (HY-1023-70) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
26.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 26.2 %pts |
| LL Bottom Bracket (BB-7421) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| LL Crankset (CS-4759) | 17 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% |
-30.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 8.8 %pts |
| LL Fork (FK-1639) | 16 | 19 | -3 | -15.8% |
-49.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 33.3 %pts |
| LL Headset (HS-0296) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
35.7% |
Exponential | Better by 35.7 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M21B-40) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-1.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 1.6 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M21B-42) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
4.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 4.3 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M21B-48) | 14 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% |
37.5% |
Regression | Worse by 2.5 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 52 (FR-M21B-52) | 44 | 35 | 9 | 25.7% |
13.3% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 12.4 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 40 (FR-M21S-40) | 29 | 31 | -2 | -6.5% |
-3.1% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 3.3 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M21S-42) | 16 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% |
26.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 6.6 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M21S-44) | 25 | 22 | 3 | 13.6% |
9.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 3.8 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M21S-48) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
84.9% |
Regression | Better by 84.9 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 52 (FR-M21S-52) | 24 | 24 | 0 | 0.0% |
25.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 25.7 %pts |
| LL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M423) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-4.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 4.4 %pts |
| LL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M243) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-28.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 28.2 %pts |
| LL Mountain Pedal (PD-M282) | 11 | 12 | -1 | -8.3% |
25.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 16.7 %pts |
| LL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M423) | 8 | 9 | -1 | -11.1% |
-49.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 38.4 %pts |
| LL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M236) | 11 | 6 | 5 | 83.3% |
84.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 1.4 %pts |
| LL Mountain Tire (TI-M267) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-23.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 23.3 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R38B-48) | 9 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% |
7.4% |
Regression | Worse by 5.1 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R38B-52) | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% |
1.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 1.6 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R38B-58) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
2.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 2.9 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 60 (FR-R38B-60) | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% |
-1.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 1.7 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R38B-62) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-23.8% |
Regression | Better by 23.8 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R38R-44) | 38 | 38 | 0 | 0.0% |
-2.8% |
Regression | Better by 2.8 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R38R-48) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
23.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 23.1 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R38R-52) | 16 | 18 | -2 | -11.1% |
-12.6% |
Exponential | Better by 1.5 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R38R-58) | 32 | 23 | 9 | 39.1% |
39.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 0.4 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R38R-60) | 57 | 54 | 3 | 5.6% |
-8.1% |
Regression | Better by 2.6 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R38R-62) | 13 | 14 | -1 | -7.1% |
-37.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 30.6 %pts |
| LL Road Front Wheel (FW-R623) | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% |
2.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 2.3 %pts |
| LL Road Handlebars (HB-R504) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-2.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 2.9 %pts |
| LL Road Pedal (PD-R347) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
21.4% |
Regression | Better by 21.4 %pts |
| LL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R623) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
-18.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 18.6 %pts |
| LL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R581) | 53 | 54 | -1 | -1.9% |
-14.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 13.0 %pts |
| LL Road Tire (TI-R092) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
12.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 12.4 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 44 (FR-T67U-44) | 13 | 14 | -1 | -7.1% |
-10.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 2.8 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T67U-50) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-2.5% |
Exponential | Better by 2.5 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T67U-54) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-18.0% |
Regression | Better by 18.0 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 58 (FR-T67U-58) | 7 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% |
45.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 5.7 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 62 (FR-T67U-62) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
-4.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 4.0 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 44 (FR-T67Y-44) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T67Y-50) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
6.8% |
Exponential | Better by 6.8 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T67Y-54) | 166 | 166 | 0 | 0.0% |
-1.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 1.8 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 58 (FR-T67Y-58) | 14 | 14 | 0 | 0.0% |
-9.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 9.3 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 62 (FR-T67Y-62) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-23.9% |
Exponential | Better by 23.9 %pts |
| LL Touring Handlebars (HB-T721) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
100.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 100.0 %pts |
| LL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T312) | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% |
25.0% |
Regression | Better by 25.0 %pts |
| Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, L (LJ-0192-L) | 14 | 14 | 0 | 0.0% |
11.3% |
Exponential | Better by 11.3 %pts |
| Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, M (LJ-0192-M) | 169 | 169 | 0 | 0.0% |
-10.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 10.9 %pts |
| Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, S (LJ-0192-S) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, XL (LJ-0192-X) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
8.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 8.7 %pts |
| Men's Bib-Shorts, L (SB-M891-L) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
6.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 6.3 %pts |
| Men's Bib-Shorts, M (SB-M891-M) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Men's Bib-Shorts, S (SB-M891-S) | 175 | 113 | 62 | 54.9% |
28.2% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 26.7 %pts |
| Men's Sports Shorts, L (SH-M897-L) | 14 | 14 | 0 | 0.0% |
-20.0% |
Regression | Better by 20.0 %pts |
| Men's Sports Shorts, M (SH-M897-M) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Men's Sports Shorts, S (SH-M897-S) | 24 | 26 | -2 | -7.7% |
-3.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 4.0 %pts |
| Men's Sports Shorts, XL (SH-M897-X) | 17 | 16 | 1 | 6.3% |
-12.8% |
Regression | Better by 6.6 %pts |
| Minipump (PU-0452) | 22 | 20 | 2 | 10.0% |
17.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 7.8 %pts |
| ML Bottom Bracket (BB-8107) | 139 | 158 | -19 | -12.0% |
-27.4% |
Exponential | Better by 15.4 %pts |
| ML Crankset (CS-6583) | 11 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% |
27.0% |
Exponential | Better by 17.0 %pts |
| ML Fork (FK-5136) | 7 | 8 | -1 | -12.5% |
-4.3% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 8.2 %pts |
| ML Headset (HS-2451) | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% |
-6.5% |
Regression | Better by 6.5 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M63B-38) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-30.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 30.7 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M63B-40) | 9 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% |
12.2% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 37.8 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M63B-44) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
115.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 115.4 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M63B-48) | 36 | 33 | 3 | 9.1% |
13.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 4.2 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 38 (FR-M63S-38) | 10 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% |
93.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 82.3 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 40 (FR-M63S-40) | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% |
6.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 6.6 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 42 (FR-M63S-42) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
9.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 9.2 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 46 (FR-M63S-46) | 87 | 70 | 17 | 24.3% |
-0.1% |
Exponential | Worse by 24.2 %pts |
| ML Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M762) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
-22.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 22.4 %pts |
| ML Mountain Pedal (PD-M340) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-8.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 8.2 %pts |
| ML Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M798) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
3.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 3.1 %pts |
| ML Mountain Tire (TI-M602) | 172 | 181 | -9 | -5.0% |
20.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 15.9 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R72R-44) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
-1.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 1.9 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R72R-48) | 54 | 58 | -4 | -6.9% |
-11.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 4.2 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R72R-52) | 140 | 139 | 1 | 0.7% |
30.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 29.5 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R72R-58) | 19 | 20 | -1 | -5.0% |
-20.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 15.1 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 38 (FR-R72Y-38) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
7.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 7.1 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 40 (FR-R72Y-40) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
2.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 2.9 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 42 (FR-R72Y-42) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
13.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 13.9 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 44 (FR-R72Y-44) | 138 | 165 | -27 | -16.4% |
-17.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 1.0 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 48 (FR-R72Y-48) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-0.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 0.9 %pts |
| ML Road Front Wheel (FW-R762) | 29 | 27 | 2 | 7.4% |
-16.2% |
Regression | Better by 8.8 %pts |
| ML Road Handlebars (HB-R720) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
40.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 40.9 %pts |
| ML Road Pedal (PD-R563) | 51 | 53 | -2 | -3.8% |
-13.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 10.0 %pts |
| ML Road Rear Wheel (RW-R762) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
-2.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 2.6 %pts |
| ML Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R908) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-13.9% |
Regression | Better by 13.9 %pts |
| ML Road Tire (TI-R628) | 9 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% |
35.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 23.2 %pts |
| ML Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T762) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
57.7% |
Regression | Better by 57.7 %pts |
| Mountain Bike Socks, M (SO-B909-M) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-44.6% |
Regression | Better by 44.6 %pts |
| Mountain Bottle Cage (BC-M005) | 15 | 15 | 0 | 0.0% |
-10.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 10.3 %pts |
| Mountain Pump (PU-M044) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-50.0% |
Regression | Better by 50.0 %pts |
| Mountain Tire Tube (TT-M928) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
2.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 2.7 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Black, 38 (BK-M82B-38) | 17 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% |
7.4% |
Exponential | Worse by 23.3 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Black, 42 (BK-M82B-42) | 216 | 130 | 86 | 66.2% |
-7.9% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 58.3 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Black, 44 (BK-M82B-44) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-33.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 33.2 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Black, 48 (BK-M82B-48) | 11 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% |
-3.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 6.6 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Silver, 38 (BK-M82S-38) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
-13.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 13.8 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Silver, 42 (BK-M82S-42) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
26.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 26.1 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Silver, 44 (BK-M82S-44) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-39.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 39.2 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Silver, 48 (BK-M82S-48) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-70.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 70.0 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Black, 38 (BK-M68B-38) | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% |
-11.3% |
Regression | Better by 11.3 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Black, 42 (BK-M68B-42) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Mountain-200 Black, 46 (BK-M68B-46) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
46.1% |
Regression | Better by 46.1 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Silver, 38 (BK-M68S-38) | 78 | 74 | 4 | 5.4% |
0.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 5.4 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Silver, 46 (BK-M68S-46) | 10 | 13 | -3 | -23.1% |
-37.4% |
Regression | Better by 14.3 %pts |
| Mountain-300 Black, 38 (BK-M47B-38) | 9 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% |
20.8% |
Regression | Worse by 7.7 %pts |
| Mountain-300 Black, 40 (BK-M47B-40) | 27 | 26 | 1 | 3.8% |
13.0% |
Regression | Better by 9.2 %pts |
| Mountain-300 Black, 44 (BK-M47B-44) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
7.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 7.0 %pts |
| Mountain-300 Black, 48 (BK-M47B-48) | 149 | 149 | 0 | 0.0% |
-2.6% |
Regression | Better by 2.6 %pts |
| Mountain-400-W Silver, 38 (BK-M38S-38) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Mountain-400-W Silver, 40 (BK-M38S-40) | 207 | 236 | -29 | -12.3% |
-10.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 1.5 %pts |
| Mountain-400-W Silver, 42 (BK-M38S-42) | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% |
-10.4% |
Exponential | Better by 10.4 %pts |
| Mountain-400-W Silver, 46 (BK-M38S-46) | 17 | 12 | 5 | 41.7% |
35.6% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 6.1 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 40 (BK-M18B-40) | 211 | 241 | -30 | -12.4% |
-11.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 0.8 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 44 (BK-M18B-44) | 48 | 44 | 4 | 9.1% |
3.3% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 5.8 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 48 (BK-M18B-48) | 40 | 39 | 1 | 2.6% |
-4.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 1.6 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 52 (BK-M18B-52) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-18.8% |
Regression | Better by 18.8 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 40 (BK-M18S-40) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-4.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 4.8 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 42 (BK-M18S-42) | 46 | 45 | 1 | 2.2% |
-6.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 4.7 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 44 (BK-M18S-44) | 142 | 103 | 39 | 37.9% |
8.0% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 29.9 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 48 (BK-M18S-48) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
21.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 21.4 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 52 (BK-M18S-52) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-9.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 9.5 %pts |
| Patch Kit/8 Patches (PK-7098) | 114 | 113 | 1 | 0.9% |
-0.5% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 0.4 %pts |
| Racing Socks, M (SO-R809-M) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
10.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 10.3 %pts |
| Rear Brakes (RB-9231) | 16 | 17 | -1 | -5.9% |
22.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 16.4 %pts |
| Rear Derailleur (RD-2308) | 56 | 56 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 0.1 %pts |
| Road Bottle Cage (BC-R205) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-2.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 2.5 %pts |
| Road Tire Tube (TT-R982) | 11 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% |
28.6% |
Regression | Worse by 8.9 %pts |
| Road-150 Red, 44 (BK-R93R-44) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Road-150 Red, 48 (BK-R93R-48) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-2.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 2.0 %pts |
| Road-150 Red, 52 (BK-R93R-52) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
11.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 11.6 %pts |
| Road-150 Red, 56 (BK-R93R-56) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
32.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 32.5 %pts |
| Road-150 Red, 62 (BK-R93R-62) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
-22.1% |
Regression | Better by 22.1 %pts |
| Road-250 Black, 44 (BK-R89B-44) | 113 | 120 | -7 | -5.8% |
22.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 16.9 %pts |
| Road-250 Black, 48 (BK-R89B-48) | 64 | 53 | 11 | 20.8% |
19.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 0.9 %pts |
| Road-250 Black, 52 (BK-R89B-52) | 13 | 14 | -1 | -7.1% |
-34.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 27.1 %pts |
| Road-250 Black, 58 (BK-R89B-58) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
88.0% |
Regression | Better by 88.0 %pts |
| Road-250 Red, 44 (BK-R89R-44) | 31 | 32 | -1 | -3.1% |
-49.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 46.4 %pts |
| Road-250 Red, 48 (BK-R89R-48) | 16 | 16 | 0 | 0.0% |
-6.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 6.1 %pts |
| Road-250 Red, 52 (BK-R89R-52) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-3.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 3.5 %pts |
| Road-250 Red, 58 (BK-R89R-58) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
163.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 163.2 %pts |
| Road-350-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R79Y-40) | 15 | 14 | 1 | 7.1% |
-3.3% |
Exponential | Worse by 3.8 %pts |
| Road-350-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R79Y-42) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
2.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 2.6 %pts |
| Road-350-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R79Y-44) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-43.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 43.3 %pts |
| Road-350-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R79Y-48) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-22.7% |
Exponential | Better by 22.7 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 44 (BK-R68R-44) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
108.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 108.0 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 48 (BK-R68R-48) | 18 | 15 | 3 | 20.0% |
-20.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 0.2 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 52 (BK-R68R-52) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
-6.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 6.8 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 58 (BK-R68R-58) | 22 | 25 | -3 | -12.0% |
-17.9% |
Exponential | Better by 5.9 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 60 (BK-R68R-60) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 38 (BK-R64Y-38) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
65.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 65.1 %pts |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R64Y-42) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
-7.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 7.6 %pts |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R64Y-44) | 8 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% |
-40.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 26.2 %pts |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R64Y-48) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-45.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 45.8 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 44 (BK-R50B-44) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
82.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 82.8 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 48 (BK-R50B-48) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-9.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 9.6 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 52 (BK-R50B-52) | 9 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% |
5.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 45.0 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 58 (BK-R50B-58) | 14 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% |
-1.3% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 26.0 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 60 (BK-R50B-60) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-1.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 1.2 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 62 (BK-R50B-62) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
7.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 7.1 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 44 (BK-R50R-44) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
2.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 2.9 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 48 (BK-R50R-48) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
-9.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 9.6 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 52 (BK-R50R-52) | 27 | 26 | 1 | 3.8% |
-12.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 8.9 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 58 (BK-R50R-58) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
-8.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 8.3 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 60 (BK-R50R-60) | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% |
4.3% |
Regression | Better by 4.3 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 62 (BK-R50R-62) | 224 | 265 | -41 | -15.5% |
-22.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 6.7 %pts |
| Road-750 Black, 44 (BK-R19B-44) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
46.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 46.4 %pts |
| Road-750 Black, 48 (BK-R19B-48) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | The same |
| Road-750 Black, 52 (BK-R19B-52) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
-8.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 8.9 %pts |
| Road-750 Black, 58 (BK-R19B-58) | 13 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% |
-8.6% |
Exponential | Better by 0.2 %pts |
| Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, L (SJ-0194-L) | 9 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% |
55.4% |
Exponential | Better by 26.9 %pts |
| Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, M (SJ-0194-M) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
-18.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 18.1 %pts |
| Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, S (SJ-0194-S) | 166 | 183 | -17 | -9.3% |
-10.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 1.2 %pts |
| Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, XL (SJ-0194-X) | 14 | 16 | -2 | -12.5% |
7.3% |
Exponential | Worse by 5.2 %pts |
| Sport-100 Helmet, Black (HL-U509) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
-24.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 24.3 %pts |
| Sport-100 Helmet, Blue (HL-U509-B) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
-28.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 28.3 %pts |
| Sport-100 Helmet, Red (HL-U509-R) | 10 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% |
12.1% |
Exponential | Better by 1.0 %pts |
| Taillights - Battery-Powered (LT-T990) | 15 | 10 | 5 | 50.0% |
137.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 87.0 %pts |
| Touring Front Wheel (FW-T905) | 11 | 12 | -1 | -8.3% |
26.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 18.2 %pts |
| Touring Pedal (PD-T852) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
28.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 28.4 %pts |
| Touring Rear Wheel (RW-T905) | 49 | 44 | 5 | 11.4% |
-2.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 9.0 %pts |
| Touring Tire (TI-T723) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Touring Tire Tube (TT-T092) | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% |
56.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 56.2 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Blue, 50 (BK-T79U-50) | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% |
7.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 7.1 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Blue, 54 (BK-T79U-54) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
6.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 6.7 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Blue, 60 (BK-T79U-60) | 37 | 39 | -2 | -5.1% |
-5.1% |
Regression | Worse by 0.1 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Yellow, 46 (BK-T79Y-46) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
52.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 52.7 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T79Y-50) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Touring-1000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T79Y-54) | 79 | 79 | 0 | 0.0% |
-6.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 6.6 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Yellow, 60 (BK-T79Y-60) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-50.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 50.9 %pts |
| Touring-2000 Blue, 46 (BK-T44U-46) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
12.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 12.5 %pts |
| Touring-2000 Blue, 50 (BK-T44U-50) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
25.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 25.5 %pts |
| Touring-2000 Blue, 54 (BK-T44U-54) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Touring-2000 Blue, 60 (BK-T44U-60) | 9 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% |
5.9% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 22.6 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 44 (BK-T18U-44) | 5 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% |
11.5% |
Exponential | Worse by 13.5 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 50 (BK-T18U-50) | 14 | 15 | -1 | -6.7% |
0.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 6.2 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 54 (BK-T18U-54) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
8.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 8.4 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 58 (BK-T18U-58) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-40.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 40.5 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 62 (BK-T18U-62) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
-51.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 51.2 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 44 (BK-T18Y-44) | 181 | 239 | -58 | -24.3% |
-24.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 0.6 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T18Y-50) | 58 | 51 | 7 | 13.7% |
-6.9% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 6.8 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T18Y-54) | 23 | 20 | 3 | 15.0% |
46.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 31.9 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 58 (BK-T18Y-58) | 8 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% |
121.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 61.2 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 62 (BK-T18Y-62) | 30 | 26 | 4 | 15.4% |
42.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 26.6 %pts |
| Touring-Panniers, Large (PA-T100) | 42 | 44 | -2 | -4.5% |
11.5% |
Regression | Better by 7.0 %pts |
| Water Bottle - 30 oz. (WB-H098) | 7 | 8 | -1 | -12.5% |
-41.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 29.3 %pts |
| Women's Mountain Shorts, M (SH-W890-M) | 11 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% |
55.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 33.7 %pts |
| Women's Mountain Shorts, S (SH-W890-S) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
23.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 23.5 %pts |
| Women's Tights, L (TG-W091-L) | 170 | 116 | 54 | 46.6% |
53.4% |
Exponential | Better by 6.8 %pts |
| Women's Tights, M (TG-W091-M) | 27 | 26 | 1 | 3.8% |
-10.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 6.5 %pts |
| Women's Tights, S (TG-W091-S) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
6.0% |
Regression | Better by 6.0 %pts |
| Total | 6,976 | 6,743 | 233 | 3.5% | -3.6% | Better in 239 out of 299 items (79.9%) |
| Weighted Average % Error | 12.3% | Weighted Average % Error (Alt) | 11.4% | Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) | 6.9% | Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) | 3.0 |
| Weighted Average % Error-Statistics | 18.3% | Weighted Average % Error (Alt)-Statistics | 17.0% | Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)-Statistics | 22.6% | Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)-Statistics | 4.1 |
| Forecast | Actual | Variance | Percent Error | Stats Pct Error | Best Algorithm | Human vs. Statistics | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All-Purpose Bike Stand (ST-1401) | 40 | 39 | 1 | 2.6% |
0.5% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 2.0 %pts |
| AWC Logo Cap (CA-1098) | 56 | 57 | -1 | -1.8% |
9.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 8.0 %pts |
| Bike Wash - Dissolver (CL-9009) | 15 | 17 | -2 | -11.8% |
-13.4% |
Regression | Better by 1.6 %pts |
| Cable Lock (LO-C100) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
13.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 13.7 %pts |
| Chain (CH-0234) | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% |
17.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 17.2 %pts |
| Classic Vest, L (VE-C304-L) | 16 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% |
19.0% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 4.1 %pts |
| Classic Vest, M (VE-C304-M) | 8 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% |
19.9% |
Regression | Better by 5.6 %pts |
| Classic Vest, S (VE-C304-S) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
-3.4% |
Exponential | Better by 3.4 %pts |
| Fender Set - Mountain (FE-6654) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
17.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 17.5 %pts |
| Front Brakes (FB-9873) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
-7.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 7.1 %pts |
| Front Derailleur (FD-2342) | 9 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% |
30.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 1.8 %pts |
| Full-Finger Gloves, L (GL-F110-L) | 235 | 270 | -35 | -13.0% |
21.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 8.1 %pts |
| Full-Finger Gloves, S (GL-F110-S) | 6 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% |
17.6% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 32.4 %pts |
| Half-Finger Gloves, L (GL-H102-L) | 12 | 13 | -1 | -7.7% |
-36.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 28.8 %pts |
| Half-Finger Gloves, M (GL-H102-M) | 123 | 127 | -4 | -3.1% |
-45.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 41.8 %pts |
| Half-Finger Gloves, S (GL-H102-S) | 240 | 182 | 58 | 31.9% |
47.8% |
Regression | Better by 15.9 %pts |
| Headlights - Dual-Beam (LT-H902) | 58 | 52 | 6 | 11.5% |
10.7% |
Regression | Worse by 0.8 %pts |
| Headlights - Weatherproof (LT-H903) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
-5.9% |
Regression | Better by 5.9 %pts |
| Hitch Rack - 4-Bike (RA-H123) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| HL Bottom Bracket (BB-9108) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
-100.0% |
Regression | Better by 100.0 %pts |
| HL Crankset (CS-9183) | 10 | 11 | -1 | -9.1% |
-18.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 9.1 %pts |
| HL Fork (FK-9939) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
-29.3% |
Regression | Better by 29.3 %pts |
| HL Headset (HS-3479) | 9 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% |
37.3% |
Exponential | Better by 24.8 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M94B-38) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
170.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 170.0 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M94B-42) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
14.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 14.5 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M94B-44) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
62.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 62.5 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 46 (FR-M94B-46) | 5 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% |
13.6% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 11.4 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M94B-48) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-17.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 17.3 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 38 (FR-M94S-38) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M94S-42) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
4.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 4.8 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M94S-44) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
-37.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 37.0 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 46 (FR-M94S-46) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
19.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 19.6 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M94S-52) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-0.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 0.7 %pts |
| HL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M928) | 15 | 15 | 0 | 0.0% |
-42.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 42.6 %pts |
| HL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M918) | 9 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% |
23.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 4.8 %pts |
| HL Mountain Pedal (PD-M562) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
2.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 2.3 %pts |
| HL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M928) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
160.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 160.3 %pts |
| HL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M940) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-0.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 0.2 %pts |
| HL Mountain Tire (TI-M823) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
111.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 111.1 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R92B-44) | 157 | 179 | -22 | -12.3% |
-43.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 31.3 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R92B-48) | 137 | 118 | 19 | 16.1% |
6.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 9.9 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R92B-52) | 206 | 144 | 62 | 43.1% |
50.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 7.3 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R92B-62) | 8 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% |
44.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 11.2 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R92R-44) | 248 | 232 | 16 | 6.9% |
2.3% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 4.6 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R92R-48) | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% |
-12.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 12.2 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R92R-52) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-33.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 33.9 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 56 (FR-R92R-56) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 0.6 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R92R-58) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-26.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 26.9 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R92R-62) | 45 | 35 | 10 | 28.6% |
40.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 11.7 %pts |
| HL Road Front Wheel (FW-R820) | 13 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% |
-5.9% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 38.6 %pts |
| HL Road Pedal (PD-R853) | 11 | 12 | -1 | -8.3% |
-33.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 25.3 %pts |
| HL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R820) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| HL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R995) | 12 | 13 | -1 | -7.7% |
-18.5% |
Exponential | Better by 10.8 %pts |
| HL Road Tire (TI-R982) | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% |
-7.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 7.4 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Blue, 46 (FR-T98U-46) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
2.1% |
Exponential | Better by 2.1 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T98U-50) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
7.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 7.7 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T98U-54) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-72.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 72.0 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Blue, 60 (FR-T98U-60) | 193 | 225 | -32 | -14.2% |
-13.7% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 0.5 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 46 (FR-T98Y-46) | 31 | 29 | 2 | 6.9% |
29.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 22.9 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T98Y-50) | 12 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% |
-5.0% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 4.1 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T98Y-54) | 38 | 39 | -1 | -2.6% |
5.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 3.0 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 60 (FR-T98Y-60) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
23.8% |
Regression | Better by 23.8 %pts |
| HL Touring Handlebars (HB-T928) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-6.6% |
Exponential | Better by 6.6 %pts |
| HL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T924) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
-31.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 31.4 %pts |
| Hydration Pack - 70 oz. (HY-1023-70) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| LL Bottom Bracket (BB-7421) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-10.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 10.3 %pts |
| LL Crankset (CS-4759) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-9.1% |
Regression | Better by 9.1 %pts |
| LL Fork (FK-1639) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
140.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 140.0 %pts |
| LL Headset (HS-0296) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-43.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 43.4 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M21B-40) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
61.1% |
Exponential | Better by 61.1 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M21B-42) | 13 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% |
14.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 6.5 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M21B-44) | 11 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% |
-12.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 2.6 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 52 (FR-M21B-52) | 25 | 25 | 0 | 0.0% |
-13.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 13.9 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 40 (FR-M21S-40) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
-47.6% |
Exponential | Better by 47.6 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M21S-42) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
13.9% |
Exponential | Better by 13.9 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M21S-44) | 64 | 60 | 4 | 6.7% |
13.1% |
Regression | Better by 6.5 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 52 (FR-M21S-52) | 159 | 171 | -12 | -7.0% |
-19.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 12.0 %pts |
| LL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M423) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
-35.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 35.3 %pts |
| LL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M243) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| LL Mountain Pedal (PD-M282) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
10.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 10.3 %pts |
| LL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M423) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-29.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 29.2 %pts |
| LL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M236) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
39.9% |
Regression | Better by 39.9 %pts |
| LL Mountain Tire (TI-M267) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
1.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 1.5 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R38B-44) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R38B-48) | 13 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% |
79.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 49.9 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R38B-52) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
62.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 62.5 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R38B-58) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-3.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 3.0 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 60 (FR-R38B-60) | 6 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% |
23.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 3.7 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R38B-62) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-35.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 35.7 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R38R-44) | 166 | 149 | 17 | 11.4% |
25.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 14.0 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R38R-48) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
15.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 15.8 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R38R-52) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
17.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 17.4 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R38R-58) | 155 | 143 | 12 | 8.4% |
2.6% |
Regression | Worse by 5.8 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R38R-60) | 256 | 355 | -99 | -27.9% |
-40.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 13.0 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R38R-62) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | The same |
| LL Road Front Wheel (FW-R623) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-23.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 23.1 %pts |
| LL Road Handlebars (HB-R504) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-34.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 34.5 %pts |
| LL Road Pedal (PD-R347) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
4.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 4.1 %pts |
| LL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R623) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| LL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R581) | 69 | 69 | 0 | 0.0% |
-10.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 10.5 %pts |
| LL Road Tire (TI-R092) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-37.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 37.0 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T67U-50) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-0.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 0.0 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T67U-54) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 58 (FR-T67U-58) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
8.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 8.3 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 62 (FR-T67U-62) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
10.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 10.1 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 44 (FR-T67Y-44) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
5.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 5.9 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T67Y-50) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | The same |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T67Y-54) | 111 | 125 | -14 | -11.2% |
-17.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 6.4 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 58 (FR-T67Y-58) | 15 | 15 | 0 | 0.0% |
-23.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 23.0 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 62 (FR-T67Y-62) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-29.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 29.4 %pts |
| LL Touring Handlebars (HB-T721) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-44.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 44.3 %pts |
| LL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T312) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-46.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 46.7 %pts |
| Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, L (LJ-0192-L) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, M (LJ-0192-M) | 77 | 78 | -1 | -1.3% |
-3.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 2.5 %pts |
| Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, S (LJ-0192-S) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
7.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 7.5 %pts |
| Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, XL (LJ-0192-X) | 16 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% |
33.1% |
Exponential | Worse by 0.3 %pts |
| Men's Bib-Shorts, L (SB-M891-L) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-29.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 29.0 %pts |
| Men's Bib-Shorts, M (SB-M891-M) | 8 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% |
58.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 1.6 %pts |
| Men's Bib-Shorts, S (SB-M891-S) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
20.9% |
Exponential | Better by 20.9 %pts |
| Men's Sports Shorts, L (SH-M897-L) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
7.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 7.1 %pts |
| Men's Sports Shorts, M (SH-M897-M) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-8.3% |
Regression | Better by 8.3 %pts |
| Men's Sports Shorts, S (SH-M897-S) | 143 | 133 | 10 | 7.5% |
12.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 4.6 %pts |
| Men's Sports Shorts, XL (SH-M897-X) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
48.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 48.5 %pts |
| Minipump (PU-0452) | 41 | 39 | 2 | 5.1% |
-0.7% |
Exponential | Worse by 4.4 %pts |
| ML Bottom Bracket (BB-8107) | 56 | 49 | 7 | 14.3% |
2.2% |
Regression | Worse by 12.0 %pts |
| ML Crankset (CS-6583) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
4.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 4.4 %pts |
| ML Fork (FK-5136) | 10 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% |
15.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 4.2 %pts |
| ML Headset (HS-2451) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
10.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 10.3 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M63B-38) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| ML Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M63B-40) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
1.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 1.6 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M63B-44) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
159.1% |
Regression | Better by 159.1 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M63B-48) | 222 | 174 | 48 | 27.6% |
-34.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 7.0 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 38 (FR-M63S-38) | 11 | 12 | -1 | -8.3% |
-53.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 45.6 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 40 (FR-M63S-40) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 42 (FR-M63S-42) | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% |
-5.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 5.2 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 46 (FR-M63S-46) | 147 | 152 | -5 | -3.3% |
-36.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 33.0 %pts |
| ML Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M762) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
5.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 5.2 %pts |
| ML Mountain Handlebars (HB-M763) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-45.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 45.9 %pts |
| ML Mountain Pedal (PD-M340) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
68.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 68.3 %pts |
| ML Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M762) | 10 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% |
77.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 34.3 %pts |
| ML Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M798) | 9 | 10 | -1 | -10.0% |
36.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 26.6 %pts |
| ML Mountain Tire (TI-M602) | 58 | 59 | -1 | -1.7% |
-19.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 17.7 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R72R-44) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
-0.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 0.3 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R72R-48) | 32 | 32 | 0 | 0.0% |
-20.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 20.6 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R72R-52) | 38 | 39 | -1 | -2.6% |
-19.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 17.3 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R72R-58) | 14 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% |
33.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 6.9 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R72R-60) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
10.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 10.7 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 38 (FR-R72Y-38) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
353.1% |
Regression | Better by 353.1 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 40 (FR-R72Y-40) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
4.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 4.3 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 42 (FR-R72Y-42) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
3.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 3.5 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 44 (FR-R72Y-44) | 37 | 27 | 10 | 37.0% |
32.9% |
Exponential | Worse by 4.2 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 48 (FR-R72Y-48) | 16 | 19 | -3 | -15.8% |
7.5% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 8.3 %pts |
| ML Road Front Wheel (FW-R762) | 52 | 52 | 0 | 0.0% |
2.6% |
Exponential | Better by 2.6 %pts |
| ML Road Handlebars (HB-R720) | 17 | 11 | 6 | 54.5% |
87.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 33.3 %pts |
| ML Road Pedal (PD-R563) | 41 | 40 | 1 | 2.5% |
-2.4% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 0.1 %pts |
| ML Road Rear Wheel (RW-R762) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
9.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 9.0 %pts |
| ML Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R908) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
33.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 33.5 %pts |
| ML Road Tire (TI-R628) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
3.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 3.3 %pts |
| ML Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T762) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-28.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 28.1 %pts |
| Mountain Bike Socks, L (SO-B909-L) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Mountain Bike Socks, M (SO-B909-M) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
15.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 15.7 %pts |
| Mountain Bottle Cage (BC-M005) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
71.1% |
Regression | Better by 71.1 %pts |
| Mountain Pump (PU-M044) | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% |
-26.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 26.7 %pts |
| Mountain Tire Tube (TT-M928) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-30.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 30.5 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Black, 38 (BK-M82B-38) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
4.0% |
Regression | Better by 4.0 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Black, 42 (BK-M82B-42) | 75 | 51 | 24 | 47.1% |
17.8% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 29.2 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Black, 44 (BK-M82B-44) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
16.6% |
Exponential | Better by 16.6 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Black, 48 (BK-M82B-48) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Mountain-100 Silver, 38 (BK-M82S-38) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-19.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 19.1 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Silver, 42 (BK-M82S-42) | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% |
15.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 15.7 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Silver, 44 (BK-M82S-44) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Mountain-100 Silver, 48 (BK-M82S-48) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
5.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 5.2 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Black, 38 (BK-M68B-38) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
9.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 9.7 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Black, 42 (BK-M68B-42) | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% |
6.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 6.7 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Black, 46 (BK-M68B-46) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-46.0% |
Regression | Better by 46.0 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Silver, 38 (BK-M68S-38) | 21 | 18 | 3 | 16.7% |
4.3% |
Exponential | Worse by 12.4 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Silver, 42 (BK-M68S-42) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-44.5% |
Regression | Better by 44.5 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Silver, 46 (BK-M68S-46) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
7.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 7.7 %pts |
| Mountain-300 Black, 38 (BK-M47B-38) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
32.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 32.3 %pts |
| Mountain-300 Black, 40 (BK-M47B-40) | 26 | 26 | 0 | 0.0% |
20.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 20.3 %pts |
| Mountain-300 Black, 44 (BK-M47B-44) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-23.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 23.3 %pts |
| Mountain-300 Black, 48 (BK-M47B-48) | 213 | 223 | -10 | -4.5% |
4.3% |
Exponential | Worse by 0.1 %pts |
| Mountain-400-W Silver, 38 (BK-M38S-38) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-28.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 28.1 %pts |
| Mountain-400-W Silver, 40 (BK-M38S-40) | 113 | 111 | 2 | 1.8% |
56.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 55.1 %pts |
| Mountain-400-W Silver, 42 (BK-M38S-42) | 8 | 9 | -1 | -11.1% |
-14.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 3.0 %pts |
| Mountain-400-W Silver, 46 (BK-M38S-46) | 5 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% |
60.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 5.7 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 40 (BK-M18B-40) | 43 | 40 | 3 | 7.5% |
-2.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 4.9 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 42 (BK-M18B-42) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Mountain-500 Black, 44 (BK-M18B-44) | 117 | 129 | -12 | -9.3% |
3.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 6.3 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 48 (BK-M18B-48) | 44 | 40 | 4 | 10.0% |
11.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 1.8 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 52 (BK-M18B-52) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
8.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 8.3 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 40 (BK-M18S-40) | 6 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% |
-3.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 16.3 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 42 (BK-M18S-42) | 147 | 161 | -14 | -8.7% |
-25.6% |
Exponential | Better by 16.9 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 44 (BK-M18S-44) | 38 | 37 | 1 | 2.7% |
12.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 9.8 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 48 (BK-M18S-48) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 52 (BK-M18S-52) | 17 | 15 | 2 | 13.3% |
22.2% |
Regression | Better by 8.9 %pts |
| Patch Kit/8 Patches (PK-7098) | 182 | 190 | -8 | -4.2% |
9.9% |
Regression | Better by 5.7 %pts |
| Racing Socks, L (SO-R809-L) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Racing Socks, M (SO-R809-M) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-35.6% |
Regression | Better by 35.6 %pts |
| Rear Brakes (RB-9231) | 9 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% |
-13.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 1.1 %pts |
| Rear Derailleur (RD-2308) | 116 | 131 | -15 | -11.5% |
-12.6% |
Regression | Better by 1.2 %pts |
| Road Bottle Cage (BC-R205) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-52.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 52.6 %pts |
| Road Tire Tube (TT-R982) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-12.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 12.8 %pts |
| Road-150 Red, 44 (BK-R93R-44) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
22.2% |
Regression | Better by 22.2 %pts |
| Road-150 Red, 52 (BK-R93R-52) | 12 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% |
35.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 1.7 %pts |
| Road-150 Red, 56 (BK-R93R-56) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-15.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 15.8 %pts |
| Road-150 Red, 62 (BK-R93R-62) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
-27.0% |
Regression | Better by 27.0 %pts |
| Road-250 Black, 44 (BK-R89B-44) | 45 | 47 | -2 | -4.3% |
-35.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 31.1 %pts |
| Road-250 Black, 48 (BK-R89B-48) | 33 | 26 | 7 | 26.9% |
5.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 21.3 %pts |
| Road-250 Black, 52 (BK-R89B-52) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Road-250 Black, 58 (BK-R89B-58) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
49.7% |
Regression | Better by 49.7 %pts |
| Road-250 Red, 44 (BK-R89R-44) | 17 | 11 | 6 | 54.5% |
99.7% |
Regression | Better by 45.1 %pts |
| Road-250 Red, 48 (BK-R89R-48) | 237 | 255 | -18 | -7.1% |
-22.7% |
Regression | Better by 15.7 %pts |
| Road-250 Red, 52 (BK-R89R-52) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-40.5% |
Exponential | Better by 40.5 %pts |
| Road-250 Red, 58 (BK-R89R-58) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
-32.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 32.5 %pts |
| Road-350-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R79Y-40) | 9 | 11 | -2 | -18.2% |
-46.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 28.0 %pts |
| Road-350-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R79Y-42) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-4.6% |
Regression | Better by 4.6 %pts |
| Road-350-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R79Y-44) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
7.9% |
Regression | Better by 7.9 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 48 (BK-R68R-48) | 16 | 16 | 0 | 0.0% |
-17.2% |
Regression | Better by 17.2 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 52 (BK-R68R-52) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-38.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 38.1 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 58 (BK-R68R-58) | 92 | 95 | -3 | -3.2% |
12.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 9.0 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 60 (BK-R68R-60) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 38 (BK-R64Y-38) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R64Y-40) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-40.0% |
Regression | Better by 40.0 %pts |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R64Y-42) | 13 | 14 | -1 | -7.1% |
3.1% |
Exponential | Worse by 4.1 %pts |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R64Y-44) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R64Y-48) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
20.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 20.0 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 44 (BK-R50B-44) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
37.6% |
Regression | Better by 37.6 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 48 (BK-R50B-48) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
6.9% |
Regression | Better by 6.9 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 52 (BK-R50B-52) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
11.7% |
Regression | Better by 11.7 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 58 (BK-R50B-58) | 16 | 14 | 2 | 14.3% |
-30.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 16.5 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 60 (BK-R50B-60) | 13 | 14 | -1 | -7.1% |
-5.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 2.1 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 62 (BK-R50B-62) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
13.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 13.3 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 44 (BK-R50R-44) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
-5.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 5.5 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 48 (BK-R50R-48) | 8 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% |
93.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 79.1 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 52 (BK-R50R-52) | 99 | 83 | 16 | 19.3% |
40.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 20.8 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 58 (BK-R50R-58) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-29.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 29.3 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 60 (BK-R50R-60) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Road-650 Red, 62 (BK-R50R-62) | 24 | 25 | -1 | -4.0% |
-17.0% |
Regression | Better by 13.0 %pts |
| Road-750 Black, 44 (BK-R19B-44) | 15 | 15 | 0 | 0.0% |
-41.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 41.0 %pts |
| Road-750 Black, 48 (BK-R19B-48) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
8.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 8.8 %pts |
| Road-750 Black, 52 (BK-R19B-52) | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% |
10.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 10.5 %pts |
| Road-750 Black, 58 (BK-R19B-58) | 16 | 16 | 0 | 0.0% |
-49.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 49.3 %pts |
| Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, L (SJ-0194-L) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
-2.7% |
Regression | Better by 2.7 %pts |
| Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, M (SJ-0194-M) | 11 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% |
-4.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 5.9 %pts |
| Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, S (SJ-0194-S) | 72 | 67 | 5 | 7.5% |
-24.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 17.1 %pts |
| Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, XL (SJ-0194-X) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Sport-100 Helmet, Black (HL-U509) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-56.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 56.5 %pts |
| Sport-100 Helmet, Blue (HL-U509-B) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
-37.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 37.6 %pts |
| Sport-100 Helmet, Red (HL-U509-R) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Taillights - Battery-Powered (LT-T990) | 10 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% |
31.4% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 11.4 %pts |
| Touring Front Wheel (FW-T905) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Touring Pedal (PD-T852) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-10.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 10.3 %pts |
| Touring Rear Wheel (RW-T905) | 31 | 32 | -1 | -3.1% |
-11.7% |
Regression | Better by 8.6 %pts |
| Touring Tire (TI-T723) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Touring Tire Tube (TT-T092) | 13 | 15 | -2 | -13.3% |
10.9% |
Regression | Worse by 2.5 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Blue, 46 (BK-T79U-46) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
-13.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 13.1 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Blue, 54 (BK-T79U-54) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-16.7% |
Exponential | Better by 16.7 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Blue, 60 (BK-T79U-60) | 118 | 104 | 14 | 13.5% |
31.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 17.5 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Yellow, 46 (BK-T79Y-46) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
-3.4% |
Exponential | Better by 3.4 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T79Y-50) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | The same |
| Touring-1000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T79Y-54) | 40 | 34 | 6 | 17.6% |
-11.6% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 6.0 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Yellow, 60 (BK-T79Y-60) | 10 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% |
-0.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 24.3 %pts |
| Touring-2000 Blue, 46 (BK-T44U-46) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
3.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 3.7 %pts |
| Touring-2000 Blue, 54 (BK-T44U-54) | 8 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% |
13.1% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 1.2 %pts |
| Touring-2000 Blue, 60 (BK-T44U-60) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
-18.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 18.0 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 44 (BK-T18U-44) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
27.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 27.3 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 50 (BK-T18U-50) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 54 (BK-T18U-54) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-25.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 25.4 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 58 (BK-T18U-58) | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% |
-13.7% |
Exponential | Better by 13.7 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 62 (BK-T18U-62) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-47.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 47.7 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 44 (BK-T18Y-44) | 35 | 26 | 9 | 34.6% |
49.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 15.2 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T18Y-50) | 40 | 40 | 0 | 0.0% |
-3.6% |
Exponential | Better by 3.6 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T18Y-54) | 216 | 232 | -16 | -6.9% |
-18.4% |
Exponential | Better by 11.5 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 58 (BK-T18Y-58) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 62 (BK-T18Y-62) | 163 | 178 | -15 | -8.4% |
-14.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 5.6 %pts |
| Touring-Panniers, Large (PA-T100) | 45 | 43 | 2 | 4.7% |
21.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 16.4 %pts |
| Water Bottle - 30 oz. (WB-H098) | 10 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% |
1.4% |
Regression | Worse by 23.6 %pts |
| Women's Mountain Shorts, M (SH-W890-M) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-100.0% |
Regression | Better by 100.0 %pts |
| Women's Mountain Shorts, S (SH-W890-S) | 12 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% |
51.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 1.4 %pts |
| Women's Tights, L (TG-W091-L) | 45 | 36 | 9 | 25.0% |
14.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 10.9 %pts |
| Women's Tights, M (TG-W091-M) | 71 | 69 | 2 | 2.9% |
-4.1% |
Regression | Better by 1.2 %pts |
| Women's Tights, S (TG-W091-S) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.9% |
Exponential | Better by 0.9 %pts |
| Total | 7,466 | 7,358 | 108 | 1.5% | -2.3% | Better in 230 out of 299 items (76.9%) |
| Weighted Average % Error | 11.3% | Weighted Average % Error (Alt) | 10.6% | Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) | 6.3% | Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) | 2.9 |
| Weighted Average % Error-Statistics | 21.6% | Weighted Average % Error (Alt)-Statistics | 10.4% | Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)-Statistics | 23.5% | Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)-Statistics | 5.3 |
| Forecast | Actual | Variance | Percent Error | Stats Pct Error | Best Algorithm | Human vs. Statistics | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All-Purpose Bike Stand (ST-1401) | 20 | 20 | 0 | 0.0% |
-2.5% |
Exponential | Better by 2.5 %pts |
| AWC Logo Cap (CA-1098) | 319 | 352 | -33 | -9.4% |
-35.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 25.9 %pts |
| Bike Wash - Dissolver (CL-9009) | 7 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% |
48.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 8.1 %pts |
| Cable Lock (LO-C100) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
33.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 33.3 %pts |
| Chain (CH-0234) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Classic Vest, L (VE-C304-L) | 19 | 19 | 0 | 0.0% |
-43.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 43.0 %pts |
| Classic Vest, M (VE-C304-M) | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% |
-58.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 58.5 %pts |
| Classic Vest, S (VE-C304-S) | 15 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% |
14.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 0.8 %pts |
| Fender Set - Mountain (FE-6654) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Front Brakes (FB-9873) | 16 | 14 | 2 | 14.3% |
-16.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 1.9 %pts |
| Front Derailleur (FD-2342) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | The same |
| Full-Finger Gloves, L (GL-F110-L) | 56 | 47 | 9 | 19.1% |
13.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 5.7 %pts |
| Full-Finger Gloves, M (GL-F110-M) | 7 | 8 | -1 | -12.5% |
-52.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 40.0 %pts |
| Full-Finger Gloves, S (GL-F110-S) | 5 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% |
28.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 3.4 %pts |
| Half-Finger Gloves, L (GL-H102-L) | 23 | 21 | 2 | 9.5% |
-11.3% |
Exponential | Better by 1.7 %pts |
| Half-Finger Gloves, M (GL-H102-M) | 87 | 86 | 1 | 1.2% |
12.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 11.5 %pts |
| Half-Finger Gloves, S (GL-H102-S) | 54 | 53 | 1 | 1.9% |
-3.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 1.7 %pts |
| Headlights - Dual-Beam (LT-H902) | 249 | 258 | -9 | -3.5% |
-25.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 22.1 %pts |
| Headlights - Weatherproof (LT-H903) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| HL Bottom Bracket (BB-9108) | 14 | 13 | 1 | 7.7% |
-8.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 0.6 %pts |
| HL Crankset (CS-9183) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 0.7 %pts |
| HL Fork (FK-9939) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-18.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 18.5 %pts |
| HL Headset (HS-3479) | 4 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
38.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 5.1 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M94B-38) | 8 | 9 | -1 | -11.1% |
0.4% |
Exponential | Worse by 10.8 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M94B-42) | 6 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% |
-49.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 29.6 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M94B-44) | 14 | 9 | 5 | 55.6% |
84.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 28.6 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 46 (FR-M94B-46) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-50.0% |
Regression | Better by 50.0 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M94B-48) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-28.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 28.2 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 38 (FR-M94S-38) | 13 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% |
31.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 13.5 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M94S-44) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 46 (FR-M94S-46) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
18.2% |
Exponential | Better by 18.2 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M94S-52) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
60.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 60.0 %pts |
| HL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M928) | 17 | 17 | 0 | 0.0% |
11.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 11.6 %pts |
| HL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M918) | 18 | 17 | 1 | 5.9% |
-19.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 13.5 %pts |
| HL Mountain Pedal (PD-M562) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
3.2% |
Regression | Better by 3.2 %pts |
| HL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M928) | 17 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% |
2.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 28.3 %pts |
| HL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M940) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
3.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 3.2 %pts |
| HL Mountain Tire (TI-M823) | 10 | 11 | -1 | -9.1% |
-17.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 8.4 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R92B-44) | 135 | 102 | 33 | 32.4% |
25.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 6.4 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R92B-48) | 80 | 84 | -4 | -4.8% |
-10.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 6.1 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R92B-52) | 136 | 139 | -3 | -2.2% |
20.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 17.9 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R92B-58) | 8 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% |
-12.8% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 1.5 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R92B-62) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
89.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 89.7 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R92R-44) | 35 | 37 | -2 | -5.4% |
-25.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 20.1 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R92R-48) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
-3.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 3.5 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R92R-52) | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% |
-3.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 3.5 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 56 (FR-R92R-56) | 14 | 17 | -3 | -17.6% |
-28.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 10.8 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R92R-58) | 17 | 15 | 2 | 13.3% |
-8.5% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 4.8 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R92R-62) | 195 | 246 | -51 | -20.7% |
13.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 6.8 %pts |
| HL Road Front Wheel (FW-R820) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
69.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 69.6 %pts |
| HL Road Handlebars (HB-R956) | 17 | 15 | 2 | 13.3% |
25.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 12.3 %pts |
| HL Road Pedal (PD-R853) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
21.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 21.4 %pts |
| HL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R820) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
-19.1% |
Exponential | Better by 19.1 %pts |
| HL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R995) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | The same |
| HL Road Tire (TI-R982) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
39.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 39.4 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Blue, 46 (FR-T98U-46) | 10 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% |
6.2% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 5.0 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T98U-50) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
13.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 13.5 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T98U-54) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 0.3 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Blue, 60 (FR-T98U-60) | 64 | 65 | -1 | -1.5% |
-3.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 1.7 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 46 (FR-T98Y-46) | 29 | 19 | 10 | 52.6% |
49.5% |
Regression | Worse by 3.2 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T98Y-50) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
14.7% |
Regression | Better by 14.7 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T98Y-54) | 61 | 61 | 0 | 0.0% |
-4.3% |
Exponential | Better by 4.3 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 60 (FR-T98Y-60) | 14 | 15 | -1 | -6.7% |
-20.9% |
Regression | Better by 14.2 %pts |
| HL Touring Handlebars (HB-T928) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
67.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 67.6 %pts |
| HL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T924) | 16 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% |
7.7% |
Regression | Worse by 37.8 %pts |
| Hydration Pack - 70 oz. (HY-1023-70) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-1.7% |
Exponential | Better by 1.7 %pts |
| LL Bottom Bracket (BB-7421) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.1% |
Exponential | Better by 0.1 %pts |
| LL Crankset (CS-4759) | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% |
20.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 20.9 %pts |
| LL Fork (FK-1639) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
75.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 75.0 %pts |
| LL Headset (HS-0296) | 13 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% |
73.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 43.1 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M21B-40) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
5.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 5.8 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M21B-42) | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% |
-8.0% |
Exponential | Better by 8.0 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M21B-44) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M21B-48) | 16 | 18 | -2 | -11.1% |
-13.2% |
Exponential | Better by 2.1 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 52 (FR-M21B-52) | 338 | 367 | -29 | -7.9% |
-27.2% |
Regression | Better by 19.3 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 40 (FR-M21S-40) | 112 | 113 | -1 | -0.9% |
-5.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 4.2 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M21S-42) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
16.1% |
Regression | Better by 16.1 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M21S-44) | 127 | 114 | 13 | 11.4% |
12.1% |
Regression | Better by 0.7 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M21S-48) | 27 | 23 | 4 | 17.4% |
-30.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 13.3 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 52 (FR-M21S-52) | 104 | 127 | -23 | -18.1% |
-22.1% |
Regression | Better by 4.0 %pts |
| LL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M423) | 13 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% |
10.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 20.0 %pts |
| LL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M243) | 18 | 12 | 6 | 50.0% |
57.8% |
Regression | Better by 7.8 %pts |
| LL Mountain Pedal (PD-M282) | 16 | 18 | -2 | -11.1% |
-15.4% |
Exponential | Better by 4.2 %pts |
| LL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M423) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-24.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 24.2 %pts |
| LL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M236) | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% |
-50.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 50.5 %pts |
| LL Mountain Tire (TI-M267) | 16 | 16 | 0 | 0.0% |
7.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 7.7 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R38B-44) | 13 | 14 | -1 | -7.1% |
1.0% |
Exponential | Worse by 6.1 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R38B-48) | 29 | 30 | -1 | -3.3% |
-9.8% |
Regression | Better by 6.5 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R38B-52) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
6.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 6.5 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 60 (FR-R38B-60) | 12 | 14 | -2 | -14.3% |
-25.6% |
Exponential | Better by 11.3 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R38B-62) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
54.0% |
Regression | Better by 54.0 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R38R-44) | 20 | 21 | -1 | -4.8% |
-15.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 10.6 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R38R-48) | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% |
10.4% |
Regression | Better by 10.4 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R38R-52) | 13 | 15 | -2 | -13.3% |
-34.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 21.0 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R38R-58) | 46 | 41 | 5 | 12.2% |
10.9% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 1.3 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R38R-60) | 275 | 229 | 46 | 20.1% |
3.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 17.0 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R38R-62) | 19 | 18 | 1 | 5.6% |
-14.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 8.7 %pts |
| LL Road Front Wheel (FW-R623) | 12 | 15 | -3 | -20.0% |
-2.9% |
Exponential | Worse by 17.1 %pts |
| LL Road Handlebars (HB-R504) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
1.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 1.1 %pts |
| LL Road Pedal (PD-R347) | 12 | 14 | -2 | -14.3% |
-31.6% |
Exponential | Better by 17.3 %pts |
| LL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R623) | 15 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% |
18.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 2.7 %pts |
| LL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R581) | 102 | 78 | 24 | 30.8% |
39.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 8.8 %pts |
| LL Road Tire (TI-R092) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
76.0% |
Regression | Better by 76.0 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 44 (FR-T67U-44) | 15 | 15 | 0 | 0.0% |
-4.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 4.3 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T67U-50) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-45.5% |
Regression | Better by 45.5 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T67U-54) | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% |
-5.7% |
Regression | Better by 5.7 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 58 (FR-T67U-58) | 11 | 12 | -1 | -8.3% |
-19.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 10.8 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 62 (FR-T67U-62) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
13.9% |
Regression | Better by 13.9 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 44 (FR-T67Y-44) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
62.2% |
Regression | Better by 62.2 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T67Y-50) | 14 | 14 | 0 | 0.0% |
2.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 2.0 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T67Y-54) | 232 | 225 | 7 | 3.1% |
14.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 11.2 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 58 (FR-T67Y-58) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
5.1% |
Exponential | Better by 5.1 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 62 (FR-T67Y-62) | 11 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% |
11.1% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 11.1 %pts |
| LL Touring Handlebars (HB-T721) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
1.4% |
Regression | Better by 1.4 %pts |
| LL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T312) | 11 | 7 | 4 | 57.1% |
79.0% |
Exponential | Better by 21.8 %pts |
| Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, L (LJ-0192-L) | 13 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% |
-23.3% |
Regression | Better by 15.0 %pts |
| Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, M (LJ-0192-M) | 46 | 39 | 7 | 17.9% |
-1.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 16.5 %pts |
| Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, S (LJ-0192-S) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, XL (LJ-0192-X) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
5.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 5.7 %pts |
| Men's Bib-Shorts, L (SB-M891-L) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
9.5% |
Exponential | Better by 9.5 %pts |
| Men's Bib-Shorts, M (SB-M891-M) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
37.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 37.1 %pts |
| Men's Bib-Shorts, S (SB-M891-S) | 90 | 100 | -10 | -10.0% |
-7.7% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 2.3 %pts |
| Men's Sports Shorts, L (SH-M897-L) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
105.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 105.1 %pts |
| Men's Sports Shorts, M (SH-M897-M) | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% |
-25.4% |
Exponential | Better by 25.4 %pts |
| Men's Sports Shorts, S (SH-M897-S) | 260 | 259 | 1 | 0.4% |
-1.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 1.0 %pts |
| Men's Sports Shorts, XL (SH-M897-X) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-35.5% |
Exponential | Better by 35.5 %pts |
| Minipump (PU-0452) | 184 | 171 | 13 | 7.6% |
10.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 2.8 %pts |
| ML Bottom Bracket (BB-8107) | 38 | 33 | 5 | 15.2% |
-11.7% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 3.4 %pts |
| ML Crankset (CS-6583) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-39.5% |
Regression | Better by 39.5 %pts |
| ML Fork (FK-5136) | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% |
9.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 9.9 %pts |
| ML Headset (HS-2451) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| ML Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M63B-38) | 14 | 15 | -1 | -6.7% |
3.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 3.1 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M63B-40) | 18 | 20 | -2 | -10.0% |
-3.1% |
Exponential | Worse by 6.9 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M63B-44) | 11 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% |
26.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 3.8 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M63B-48) | 267 | 236 | 31 | 13.1% |
22.6% |
Regression | Better by 9.5 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 38 (FR-M63S-38) | 14 | 14 | 0 | 0.0% |
27.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 27.2 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 40 (FR-M63S-40) | 10 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% |
3.8% |
Regression | Worse by 7.3 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 42 (FR-M63S-42) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
10.0% |
Exponential | Better by 10.0 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 46 (FR-M63S-46) | 126 | 143 | -17 | -11.9% |
-0.3% |
Regression | Worse by 11.6 %pts |
| ML Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M762) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| ML Mountain Handlebars (HB-M763) | 6 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% |
3.8% |
Regression | Worse by 16.2 %pts |
| ML Mountain Pedal (PD-M340) | 13 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% |
34.5% |
Regression | Worse by 10.0 %pts |
| ML Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M762) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| ML Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M798) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
-10.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 10.3 %pts |
| ML Mountain Tire (TI-M602) | 71 | 65 | 6 | 9.2% |
17.6% |
Regression | Better by 8.4 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R72R-44) | 17 | 17 | 0 | 0.0% |
-13.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 13.3 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R72R-48) | 216 | 185 | 31 | 16.8% |
73.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 57.0 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R72R-52) | 198 | 130 | 68 | 52.3% |
39.5% |
Exponential | Worse by 12.8 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R72R-58) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
9.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 9.5 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R72R-60) | 32 | 25 | 7 | 28.0% |
18.0% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 10.0 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 38 (FR-R72Y-38) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
-8.5% |
Regression | Better by 8.5 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 40 (FR-R72Y-40) | 15 | 14 | 1 | 7.1% |
11.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 4.2 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 42 (FR-R72Y-42) | 16 | 14 | 2 | 14.3% |
-0.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 13.7 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 44 (FR-R72Y-44) | 74 | 64 | 10 | 15.6% |
33.5% |
Exponential | Better by 17.9 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 48 (FR-R72Y-48) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| ML Road Front Wheel (FW-R762) | 252 | 209 | 43 | 20.6% |
-35.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 14.6 %pts |
| ML Road Handlebars (HB-R720) | 19 | 16 | 3 | 18.8% |
21.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 2.7 %pts |
| ML Road Pedal (PD-R563) | 121 | 86 | 35 | 40.7% |
51.9% |
Regression | Better by 11.2 %pts |
| ML Road Rear Wheel (RW-R762) | 13 | 14 | -1 | -7.1% |
38.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 31.2 %pts |
| ML Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R908) | 22 | 22 | 0 | 0.0% |
15.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 15.8 %pts |
| ML Road Tire (TI-R628) | 15 | 15 | 0 | 0.0% |
-14.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 14.4 %pts |
| ML Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T762) | 17 | 19 | -2 | -10.5% |
-40.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 29.9 %pts |
| Mountain Bike Socks, L (SO-B909-L) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
10.8% |
Regression | Better by 10.8 %pts |
| Mountain Bike Socks, M (SO-B909-M) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | The same |
| Mountain Bottle Cage (BC-M005) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-24.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 24.4 %pts |
| Mountain Pump (PU-M044) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
29.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 29.0 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Black, 38 (BK-M82B-38) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
14.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 14.1 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Black, 42 (BK-M82B-42) | 46 | 45 | 1 | 2.2% |
7.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 5.1 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Black, 44 (BK-M82B-44) | 14 | 16 | -2 | -12.5% |
-30.5% |
Regression | Better by 18.0 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Black, 48 (BK-M82B-48) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
11.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 11.7 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Silver, 38 (BK-M82S-38) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-14.5% |
Exponential | Better by 14.5 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Silver, 42 (BK-M82S-42) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
52.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 52.4 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Silver, 44 (BK-M82S-44) | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0.0% |
-2.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 2.1 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Silver, 48 (BK-M82S-48) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
52.5% |
Exponential | Better by 52.5 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Black, 38 (BK-M68B-38) | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% |
9.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 9.9 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Black, 42 (BK-M68B-42) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Mountain-200 Black, 46 (BK-M68B-46) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
-15.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 15.4 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Silver, 38 (BK-M68S-38) | 236 | 194 | 42 | 21.6% |
-7.7% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 13.9 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Silver, 42 (BK-M68S-42) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
12.6% |
Regression | Better by 12.6 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Silver, 46 (BK-M68S-46) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-25.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 25.5 %pts |
| Mountain-300 Black, 38 (BK-M47B-38) | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% |
6.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 6.3 %pts |
| Mountain-300 Black, 40 (BK-M47B-40) | 37 | 36 | 1 | 2.8% |
7.6% |
Exponential | Better by 4.8 %pts |
| Mountain-300 Black, 44 (BK-M47B-44) | 19 | 21 | -2 | -9.5% |
-19.7% |
Exponential | Better by 10.1 %pts |
| Mountain-300 Black, 48 (BK-M47B-48) | 140 | 118 | 22 | 18.6% |
65.8% |
Regression | Better by 47.2 %pts |
| Mountain-400-W Silver, 38 (BK-M38S-38) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-42.1% |
Regression | Better by 42.1 %pts |
| Mountain-400-W Silver, 40 (BK-M38S-40) | 50 | 45 | 5 | 11.1% |
24.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 13.7 %pts |
| Mountain-400-W Silver, 42 (BK-M38S-42) | 12 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% |
-10.9% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 39.1 %pts |
| Mountain-400-W Silver, 46 (BK-M38S-46) | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0.0% |
34.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 34.7 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 40 (BK-M18B-40) | 69 | 54 | 15 | 27.8% |
21.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 6.8 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 42 (BK-M18B-42) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
-37.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 37.8 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 44 (BK-M18B-44) | 38 | 33 | 5 | 15.2% |
6.7% |
Regression | Worse by 8.5 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 48 (BK-M18B-48) | 292 | 367 | -75 | -20.4% |
-24.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 3.5 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 52 (BK-M18B-52) | 13 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% |
-23.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 5.0 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 40 (BK-M18S-40) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-15.2% |
Regression | Better by 15.2 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 42 (BK-M18S-42) | 336 | 332 | 4 | 1.2% |
-40.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 39.5 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 44 (BK-M18S-44) | 33 | 31 | 2 | 6.5% |
-12.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 5.8 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 48 (BK-M18S-48) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-42.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 42.3 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 52 (BK-M18S-52) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-45.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 45.0 %pts |
| Patch Kit/8 Patches (PK-7098) | 51 | 50 | 1 | 2.0% |
9.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 7.8 %pts |
| Racing Socks, L (SO-R809-L) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Racing Socks, M (SO-R809-M) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
21.9% |
Regression | Better by 21.9 %pts |
| Rear Brakes (RB-9231) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
5.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 5.7 %pts |
| Rear Derailleur (RD-2308) | 215 | 263 | -48 | -18.3% |
-24.9% |
Exponential | Better by 6.7 %pts |
| Road Bottle Cage (BC-R205) | 11 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% |
12.7% |
Exponential | Worse by 9.5 %pts |
| Road Tire Tube (TT-R982) | 20 | 23 | -3 | -13.0% |
-43.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 30.8 %pts |
| Road-150 Red, 44 (BK-R93R-44) | 20 | 15 | 5 | 33.3% |
-20.9% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 12.4 %pts |
| Road-150 Red, 48 (BK-R93R-48) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Road-150 Red, 52 (BK-R93R-52) | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% |
-24.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 24.0 %pts |
| Road-150 Red, 56 (BK-R93R-56) | 19 | 21 | -2 | -9.5% |
-17.2% |
Regression | Better by 7.7 %pts |
| Road-150 Red, 62 (BK-R93R-62) | 12 | 13 | -1 | -7.7% |
-20.3% |
Exponential | Better by 12.6 %pts |
| Road-250 Black, 44 (BK-R89B-44) | 29 | 30 | -1 | -3.3% |
-1.1% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 2.2 %pts |
| Road-250 Black, 48 (BK-R89B-48) | 158 | 145 | 13 | 9.0% |
33.2% |
Regression | Better by 24.3 %pts |
| Road-250 Black, 52 (BK-R89B-52) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-18.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 18.6 %pts |
| Road-250 Black, 58 (BK-R89B-58) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Road-250 Red, 44 (BK-R89R-44) | 81 | 68 | 13 | 19.1% |
-11.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 7.3 %pts |
| Road-250 Red, 48 (BK-R89R-48) | 233 | 215 | 18 | 8.4% |
36.9% |
Exponential | Better by 28.5 %pts |
| Road-250 Red, 52 (BK-R89R-52) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-9.3% |
Regression | Better by 9.3 %pts |
| Road-250 Red, 58 (BK-R89R-58) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-14.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 14.3 %pts |
| Road-350-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R79Y-40) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
30.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 30.8 %pts |
| Road-350-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R79Y-42) | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% |
-4.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 4.7 %pts |
| Road-350-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R79Y-44) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Road-350-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R79Y-48) | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% |
18.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 18.6 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 48 (BK-R68R-48) | 21 | 21 | 0 | 0.0% |
-22.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 22.5 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 52 (BK-R68R-52) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
-19.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 19.3 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 58 (BK-R68R-58) | 27 | 29 | -2 | -6.9% |
-14.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 7.6 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 60 (BK-R68R-60) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
50.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 50.9 %pts |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 38 (BK-R64Y-38) | 14 | 13 | 1 | 7.7% |
1.4% |
Regression | Worse by 6.3 %pts |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R64Y-40) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
38.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 38.5 %pts |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R64Y-42) | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% |
-8.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 8.0 %pts |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R64Y-44) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-7.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 7.6 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 44 (BK-R50B-44) | 13 | 14 | -1 | -7.1% |
-1.3% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 5.8 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 48 (BK-R50B-48) | 12 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% |
21.9% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 28.1 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 52 (BK-R50B-52) | 17 | 18 | -1 | -5.6% |
-20.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 14.9 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 58 (BK-R50B-58) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
41.2% |
Regression | Better by 41.2 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 60 (BK-R50B-60) | 10 | 11 | -1 | -9.1% |
-33.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 24.5 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 62 (BK-R50B-62) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
61.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 61.6 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 44 (BK-R50R-44) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
63.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 63.2 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 52 (BK-R50R-52) | 28 | 24 | 4 | 16.7% |
-1.1% |
Exponential | Worse by 15.6 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 58 (BK-R50R-58) | 16 | 14 | 2 | 14.3% |
-28.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 14.3 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 60 (BK-R50R-60) | 10 | 11 | -1 | -9.1% |
-22.1% |
Exponential | Better by 13.0 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 62 (BK-R50R-62) | 21 | 18 | 3 | 16.7% |
20.2% |
Regression | Better by 3.5 %pts |
| Road-750 Black, 44 (BK-R19B-44) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
-100.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 100.0 %pts |
| Road-750 Black, 48 (BK-R19B-48) | 13 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% |
12.6% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 5.6 %pts |
| Road-750 Black, 52 (BK-R19B-52) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
19.2% |
Regression | Better by 19.2 %pts |
| Road-750 Black, 58 (BK-R19B-58) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, L (SJ-0194-L) | 17 | 21 | -4 | -19.0% |
-13.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 5.1 %pts |
| Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, M (SJ-0194-M) | 13 | 14 | -1 | -7.1% |
18.8% |
Exponential | Better by 11.7 %pts |
| Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, S (SJ-0194-S) | 256 | 251 | 5 | 2.0% |
7.2% |
Exponential | Better by 5.2 %pts |
| Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, XL (SJ-0194-X) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
10.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 10.1 %pts |
| Sport-100 Helmet, Black (HL-U509) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
20.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 20.0 %pts |
| Sport-100 Helmet, Blue (HL-U509-B) | 14 | 14 | 0 | 0.0% |
-9.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 9.4 %pts |
| Sport-100 Helmet, Red (HL-U509-R) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-54.2% |
Exponential | Better by 54.2 %pts |
| Taillights - Battery-Powered (LT-T990) | 14 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% |
34.0% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 6.0 %pts |
| Touring Front Wheel (FW-T905) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-20.8% |
Regression | Better by 20.8 %pts |
| Touring Pedal (PD-T852) | 16 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% |
-1.8% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 31.6 %pts |
| Touring Rear Wheel (RW-T905) | 119 | 138 | -19 | -13.8% |
-25.4% |
Exponential | Better by 11.6 %pts |
| Touring Tire (TI-T723) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
41.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 41.3 %pts |
| Touring Tire Tube (TT-T092) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
26.0% |
Exponential | Better by 26.0 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Blue, 46 (BK-T79U-46) | 32 | 29 | 3 | 10.3% |
-17.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 6.8 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Blue, 50 (BK-T79U-50) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
11.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 11.1 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Blue, 54 (BK-T79U-54) | 24 | 26 | -2 | -7.7% |
-29.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 22.2 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Blue, 60 (BK-T79U-60) | 34 | 35 | -1 | -2.9% |
-12.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 9.8 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Yellow, 46 (BK-T79Y-46) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
4.1% |
Exponential | Better by 4.1 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T79Y-50) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
-12.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 12.2 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T79Y-54) | 175 | 173 | 2 | 1.2% |
-8.8% |
Regression | Better by 7.6 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Yellow, 60 (BK-T79Y-60) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-25.8% |
Regression | Better by 25.8 %pts |
| Touring-2000 Blue, 46 (BK-T44U-46) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
28.9% |
Exponential | Better by 28.9 %pts |
| Touring-2000 Blue, 50 (BK-T44U-50) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-26.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 26.9 %pts |
| Touring-2000 Blue, 54 (BK-T44U-54) | 15 | 17 | -2 | -11.8% |
-32.2% |
Exponential | Better by 20.4 %pts |
| Touring-2000 Blue, 60 (BK-T44U-60) | 11 | 7 | 4 | 57.1% |
64.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 7.7 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 44 (BK-T18U-44) | 6 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% |
25.7% |
Exponential | Worse by 24.3 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 50 (BK-T18U-50) | 13 | 14 | -1 | -7.1% |
-35.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 28.5 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 54 (BK-T18U-54) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 58 (BK-T18U-58) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
3.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 3.2 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 62 (BK-T18U-62) | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% |
8.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 8.0 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 44 (BK-T18Y-44) | 68 | 61 | 7 | 11.5% |
14.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 2.7 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T18Y-50) | 112 | 130 | -18 | -13.8% |
-35.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 21.9 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T18Y-54) | 108 | 93 | 15 | 16.1% |
60.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 44.7 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 58 (BK-T18Y-58) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 62 (BK-T18Y-62) | 42 | 36 | 6 | 16.7% |
-7.3% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 9.4 %pts |
| Touring-Panniers, Large (PA-T100) | 197 | 223 | -26 | -11.7% |
-29.4% |
Regression | Better by 17.7 %pts |
| Water Bottle - 30 oz. (WB-H098) | 24 | 27 | -3 | -11.1% |
-38.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 27.1 %pts |
| Women's Mountain Shorts, L (SH-W890-L) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
24.5% |
Exponential | Better by 24.5 %pts |
| Women's Mountain Shorts, M (SH-W890-M) | 14 | 14 | 0 | 0.0% |
21.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 21.0 %pts |
| Women's Mountain Shorts, S (SH-W890-S) | 11 | 13 | -2 | -15.4% |
-37.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 22.2 %pts |
| Women's Tights, L (TG-W091-L) | 62 | 62 | 0 | 0.0% |
-3.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 3.2 %pts |
| Women's Tights, M (TG-W091-M) | 154 | 138 | 16 | 11.6% |
0.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 11.5 %pts |
| Women's Tights, S (TG-W091-S) | 10 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% |
-3.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 39.2 %pts |
| Total | 10,191 | 9,900 | 291 | 2.9% | -1.3% | Better in 228 out of 299 items (76.3%) |
| Weighted Average % Error | 11.7% | Weighted Average % Error (Alt) | 10.9% | Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) | 8.3% | Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) | 4.0 |
| Weighted Average % Error-Statistics | 22.1% | Weighted Average % Error (Alt)-Statistics | 8.4% | Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)-Statistics | 21.2% | Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)-Statistics | 7.3 |
| Forecast | Actual | Variance | Percent Error | Stats Pct Error | Best Algorithm | Human vs. Statistics | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All-Purpose Bike Stand (ST-1401) | 144 | 130 | 14 | 10.8% |
20.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 9.9 %pts |
| AWC Logo Cap (CA-1098) | 360 | 407 | -47 | -11.5% |
-18.9% |
Regression | Better by 7.4 %pts |
| Bike Wash - Dissolver (CL-9009) | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% |
-39.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 39.5 %pts |
| Cable Lock (LO-C100) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
20.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 20.2 %pts |
| Chain (CH-0234) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-13.4% |
Regression | Better by 13.4 %pts |
| Classic Vest, L (VE-C304-L) | 9 | 10 | -1 | -10.0% |
41.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 31.7 %pts |
| Classic Vest, M (VE-C304-M) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-30.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 30.8 %pts |
| Classic Vest, S (VE-C304-S) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
27.7% |
Exponential | Better by 27.7 %pts |
| Fender Set - Mountain (FE-6654) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
118.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 118.0 %pts |
| Front Brakes (FB-9873) | 20 | 20 | 0 | 0.0% |
37.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 37.0 %pts |
| Front Derailleur (FD-2342) | 24 | 26 | -2 | -7.7% |
12.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 4.6 %pts |
| Full-Finger Gloves, L (GL-F110-L) | 418 | 261 | 157 | 60.2% |
49.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 10.9 %pts |
| Full-Finger Gloves, M (GL-F110-M) | 8 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% |
23.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 9.5 %pts |
| Full-Finger Gloves, S (GL-F110-S) | 20 | 20 | 0 | 0.0% |
-10.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 10.9 %pts |
| Half-Finger Gloves, L (GL-H102-L) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
44.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 44.2 %pts |
| Half-Finger Gloves, M (GL-H102-M) | 448 | 263 | 185 | 70.3% |
40.9% |
Regression | Worse by 29.4 %pts |
| Half-Finger Gloves, S (GL-H102-S) | 129 | 113 | 16 | 14.2% |
37.4% |
Regression | Better by 23.3 %pts |
| Headlights - Dual-Beam (LT-H902) | 81 | 81 | 0 | 0.0% |
-10.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 10.2 %pts |
| Headlights - Weatherproof (LT-H903) | 17 | 16 | 1 | 6.3% |
0.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 5.6 %pts |
| Hitch Rack - 4-Bike (RA-H123) | 19 | 17 | 2 | 11.8% |
16.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 4.9 %pts |
| HL Bottom Bracket (BB-9108) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| HL Crankset (CS-9183) | 16 | 17 | -1 | -5.9% |
-10.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 4.9 %pts |
| HL Fork (FK-9939) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-29.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 29.8 %pts |
| HL Headset (HS-3479) | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% |
-11.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 11.2 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M94B-38) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
11.2% |
Exponential | Better by 11.2 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M94B-42) | 22 | 24 | -2 | -8.3% |
-17.8% |
Regression | Better by 9.5 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M94B-44) | 10 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% |
30.9% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 11.9 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 46 (FR-M94B-46) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-19.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 19.0 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M94B-48) | 9 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% |
16.7% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 33.3 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 38 (FR-M94S-38) | 13 | 14 | -1 | -7.1% |
10.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 3.8 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M94S-42) | 23 | 24 | -1 | -4.2% |
5.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 1.3 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M94S-44) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
10.9% |
Regression | Better by 10.9 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 46 (FR-M94S-46) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M94S-52) | 10 | 11 | -1 | -9.1% |
1.8% |
Exponential | Worse by 7.3 %pts |
| HL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M928) | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% |
-12.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 12.8 %pts |
| HL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M918) | 9 | 11 | -2 | -18.2% |
4.3% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 13.9 %pts |
| HL Mountain Pedal (PD-M562) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | The same |
| HL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M928) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
14.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 14.9 %pts |
| HL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M940) | 24 | 28 | -4 | -14.3% |
-12.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 2.0 %pts |
| HL Mountain Tire (TI-M823) | 7 | 8 | -1 | -12.5% |
14.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 2.3 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R92B-44) | 277 | 290 | -13 | -4.5% |
-13.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 8.8 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R92B-48) | 26 | 25 | 1 | 4.0% |
3.9% |
Regression | Worse by 0.1 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R92B-52) | 43 | 46 | -3 | -6.5% |
-52.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 45.8 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R92B-58) | 15 | 15 | 0 | 0.0% |
-24.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 24.2 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R92B-62) | 13 | 15 | -2 | -13.3% |
-29.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 16.1 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R92R-44) | 20 | 21 | -1 | -4.8% |
-31.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 26.6 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R92R-48) | 8 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% |
57.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 43.1 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R92R-52) | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% |
39.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 39.3 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 56 (FR-R92R-56) | 6 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% |
20.5% |
Regression | Better by 0.5 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R92R-58) | 17 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% |
-5.2% |
Regression | Worse by 16.2 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R92R-62) | 362 | 381 | -19 | -5.0% |
-41.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 36.6 %pts |
| HL Road Front Wheel (FW-R820) | 9 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% |
-6.1% |
Regression | Worse by 6.4 %pts |
| HL Road Handlebars (HB-R956) | 21 | 21 | 0 | 0.0% |
-22.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 22.7 %pts |
| HL Road Pedal (PD-R853) | 24 | 27 | -3 | -11.1% |
15.4% |
Regression | Better by 4.3 %pts |
| HL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R820) | 7 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% |
18.9% |
Exponential | Worse by 21.1 %pts |
| HL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R995) | 21 | 19 | 2 | 10.5% |
0.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 10.1 %pts |
| HL Road Tire (TI-R982) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
14.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 14.2 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Blue, 46 (FR-T98U-46) | 15 | 17 | -2 | -11.8% |
-15.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 3.3 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T98U-50) | 17 | 18 | -1 | -5.6% |
-3.2% |
Regression | Worse by 2.4 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T98U-54) | 14 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% |
28.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 11.5 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Blue, 60 (FR-T98U-60) | 159 | 162 | -3 | -1.9% |
-2.3% |
Regression | Better by 0.5 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 46 (FR-T98Y-46) | 70 | 55 | 15 | 27.3% |
18.9% |
Exponential | Worse by 8.4 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T98Y-50) | 8 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% |
15.4% |
Regression | Better by 1.1 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T98Y-54) | 315 | 349 | -34 | -9.7% |
-32.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 23.2 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 60 (FR-T98Y-60) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
66.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 66.1 %pts |
| HL Touring Handlebars (HB-T928) | 19 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% |
6.8% |
Exponential | Worse by 19.8 %pts |
| HL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T924) | 9 | 10 | -1 | -10.0% |
16.1% |
Regression | Better by 6.1 %pts |
| Hydration Pack - 70 oz. (HY-1023-70) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
4.9% |
Exponential | Better by 4.9 %pts |
| LL Bottom Bracket (BB-7421) | 17 | 12 | 5 | 41.7% |
56.2% |
Exponential | Better by 14.5 %pts |
| LL Crankset (CS-4759) | 20 | 22 | -2 | -9.1% |
-2.2% |
Regression | Worse by 6.9 %pts |
| LL Fork (FK-1639) | 11 | 13 | -2 | -15.4% |
5.7% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 9.7 %pts |
| LL Headset (HS-0296) | 23 | 21 | 2 | 9.5% |
-24.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 14.7 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M21B-40) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M21B-42) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
5.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 5.9 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M21B-44) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
-32.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 32.8 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M21B-48) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
30.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 30.7 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 52 (FR-M21B-52) | 186 | 143 | 43 | 30.1% |
19.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 10.9 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 40 (FR-M21S-40) | 144 | 156 | -12 | -7.7% |
-25.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 17.6 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M21S-42) | 8 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% |
-10.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 4.3 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M21S-44) | 418 | 418 | 0 | 0.0% |
-6.6% |
Exponential | Better by 6.6 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M21S-48) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
-100.0% |
Regression | Better by 100.0 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 52 (FR-M21S-52) | 58 | 62 | -4 | -6.5% |
3.5% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 3.0 %pts |
| LL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M423) | 19 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% |
21.2% |
Exponential | Worse by 5.4 %pts |
| LL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M243) | 7 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% |
-13.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 3.2 %pts |
| LL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M423) | 9 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% |
-10.8% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 1.7 %pts |
| LL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M236) | 8 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% |
-5.9% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 8.4 %pts |
| LL Mountain Tire (TI-M267) | 12 | 13 | -1 | -7.7% |
-19.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 11.8 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R38B-44) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R38B-48) | 12 | 13 | -1 | -7.7% |
-3.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 3.8 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R38B-52) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R38B-58) | 8 | 10 | -2 | -20.0% |
-33.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 13.3 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 60 (FR-R38B-60) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
57.5% |
Regression | Better by 57.5 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R38B-62) | 14 | 14 | 0 | 0.0% |
-6.9% |
Exponential | Better by 6.9 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R38R-44) | 139 | 175 | -36 | -20.6% |
8.3% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 12.2 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R38R-48) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
104.7% |
Regression | Better by 104.7 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R38R-52) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-33.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 33.3 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R38R-58) | 140 | 114 | 26 | 22.8% |
9.1% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 13.7 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R38R-60) | 178 | 123 | 55 | 44.7% |
80.8% |
Exponential | Better by 36.0 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R38R-62) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
-22.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 22.9 %pts |
| LL Road Front Wheel (FW-R623) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
7.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 7.8 %pts |
| LL Road Handlebars (HB-R504) | 28 | 28 | 0 | 0.0% |
6.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 6.5 %pts |
| LL Road Pedal (PD-R347) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| LL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R623) | 13 | 16 | -3 | -18.8% |
-12.9% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 5.8 %pts |
| LL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R581) | 366 | 301 | 65 | 21.6% |
-26.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 5.1 %pts |
| LL Road Tire (TI-R092) | 21 | 21 | 0 | 0.0% |
-7.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 7.7 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 44 (FR-T67U-44) | 16 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% |
52.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 19.0 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T67U-50) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T67U-54) | 24 | 22 | 2 | 9.1% |
-16.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 6.9 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 58 (FR-T67U-58) | 8 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% |
17.1% |
Regression | Better by 2.8 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 44 (FR-T67Y-44) | 7 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% |
39.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 0.9 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T67Y-50) | 36 | 36 | 0 | 0.0% |
-6.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 6.9 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T67Y-54) | 32 | 31 | 1 | 3.2% |
-7.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 4.2 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 58 (FR-T67Y-58) | 21 | 24 | -3 | -12.5% |
17.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 5.4 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 62 (FR-T67Y-62) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
1.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 1.1 %pts |
| LL Touring Handlebars (HB-T721) | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% |
-10.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 10.5 %pts |
| LL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T312) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-28.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 28.2 %pts |
| Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, L (LJ-0192-L) | 13 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% |
25.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 7.3 %pts |
| Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, M (LJ-0192-M) | 207 | 237 | -30 | -12.7% |
-25.9% |
Regression | Better by 13.3 %pts |
| Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, S (LJ-0192-S) | 12 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% |
66.7% |
Regression | Better by 16.7 %pts |
| Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, XL (LJ-0192-X) | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0.0% |
12.0% |
Exponential | Better by 12.0 %pts |
| Men's Bib-Shorts, L (SB-M891-L) | 12 | 13 | -1 | -7.7% |
-19.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 11.7 %pts |
| Men's Bib-Shorts, M (SB-M891-M) | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% |
5.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 5.9 %pts |
| Men's Bib-Shorts, S (SB-M891-S) | 250 | 217 | 33 | 15.2% |
-14.4% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 0.8 %pts |
| Men's Sports Shorts, L (SH-M897-L) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
112.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 112.6 %pts |
| Men's Sports Shorts, M (SH-M897-M) | 29 | 26 | 3 | 11.5% |
12.4% |
Regression | Better by 0.9 %pts |
| Men's Sports Shorts, S (SH-M897-S) | 262 | 282 | -20 | -7.1% |
-12.8% |
Regression | Better by 5.7 %pts |
| Men's Sports Shorts, XL (SH-M897-X) | 13 | 14 | -1 | -7.1% |
-0.2% |
Regression | Worse by 7.0 %pts |
| Minipump (PU-0452) | 85 | 79 | 6 | 7.6% |
6.8% |
Exponential | Worse by 0.8 %pts |
| ML Bottom Bracket (BB-8107) | 200 | 235 | -35 | -14.9% |
-13.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 1.7 %pts |
| ML Crankset (CS-6583) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| ML Fork (FK-5136) | 17 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% |
-5.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 15.8 %pts |
| ML Headset (HS-2451) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| ML Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M63B-38) | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% |
16.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 16.3 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M63B-40) | 21 | 15 | 6 | 40.0% |
39.4% |
Regression | Worse by 0.6 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M63B-44) | 27 | 30 | -3 | -10.0% |
-16.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 6.9 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M63B-48) | 107 | 107 | 0 | 0.0% |
-11.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 11.6 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 38 (FR-M63S-38) | 12 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% |
-3.6% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 5.5 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 40 (FR-M63S-40) | 21 | 20 | 1 | 5.0% |
-9.2% |
Exponential | Better by 4.2 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 42 (FR-M63S-42) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
4.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 4.7 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 46 (FR-M63S-46) | 282 | 355 | -73 | -20.6% |
0.5% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 20.0 %pts |
| ML Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M762) | 12 | 14 | -2 | -14.3% |
-11.6% |
Regression | Worse by 2.7 %pts |
| ML Mountain Handlebars (HB-M763) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-25.6% |
Regression | Better by 25.6 %pts |
| ML Mountain Pedal (PD-M340) | 25 | 27 | -2 | -7.4% |
-7.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 0.0 %pts |
| ML Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M762) | 20 | 17 | 3 | 17.6% |
42.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 24.4 %pts |
| ML Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M798) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-52.3% |
Regression | Better by 52.3 %pts |
| ML Mountain Tire (TI-M602) | 338 | 414 | -76 | -18.4% |
-35.1% |
Exponential | Better by 16.8 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R72R-44) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-33.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 33.3 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R72R-48) | 237 | 287 | -50 | -17.4% |
1.8% |
Regression | Worse by 15.6 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R72R-52) | 64 | 69 | -5 | -7.2% |
7.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 0.5 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R72R-58) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-4.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 4.5 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R72R-60) | 8 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% |
13.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 0.5 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 38 (FR-R72Y-38) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
38.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 38.5 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 40 (FR-R72Y-40) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
20.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 20.8 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 42 (FR-R72Y-42) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-14.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 14.0 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 44 (FR-R72Y-44) | 43 | 41 | 2 | 4.9% |
-7.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 2.7 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 48 (FR-R72Y-48) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
4.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 4.2 %pts |
| ML Road Front Wheel (FW-R762) | 168 | 186 | -18 | -9.7% |
-20.8% |
Exponential | Better by 11.1 %pts |
| ML Road Handlebars (HB-R720) | 12 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% |
34.6% |
Regression | Better by 1.2 %pts |
| ML Road Pedal (PD-R563) | 439 | 347 | 92 | 26.5% |
42.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 16.2 %pts |
| ML Road Rear Wheel (RW-R762) | 10 | 11 | -1 | -9.1% |
-17.2% |
Regression | Better by 8.1 %pts |
| ML Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R908) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| ML Road Tire (TI-R628) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-27.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 27.2 %pts |
| ML Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T762) | 20 | 21 | -1 | -4.8% |
-18.0% |
Exponential | Better by 13.3 %pts |
| Mountain Bike Socks, L (SO-B909-L) | 16 | 17 | -1 | -5.9% |
-15.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 9.7 %pts |
| Mountain Bike Socks, M (SO-B909-M) | 17 | 17 | 0 | 0.0% |
-19.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 19.0 %pts |
| Mountain Pump (PU-M044) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
27.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 27.5 %pts |
| Mountain Tire Tube (TT-M928) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
22.3% |
Regression | Better by 22.3 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Black, 38 (BK-M82B-38) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
20.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 20.9 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Black, 42 (BK-M82B-42) | 104 | 124 | -20 | -16.1% |
-33.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 17.2 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Black, 44 (BK-M82B-44) | 9 | 5 | 4 | 80.0% |
74.8% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 5.2 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Black, 48 (BK-M82B-48) | 7 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% |
37.6% |
Regression | Better by 21.0 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Silver, 38 (BK-M82S-38) | 17 | 16 | 1 | 6.3% |
52.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 46.0 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Silver, 42 (BK-M82S-42) | 9 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% |
-13.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 0.6 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Silver, 44 (BK-M82S-44) | 18 | 16 | 2 | 12.5% |
15.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 3.0 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Silver, 48 (BK-M82S-48) | 17 | 15 | 2 | 13.3% |
4.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 8.9 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Black, 38 (BK-M68B-38) | 15 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% |
28.1% |
Regression | Better by 3.1 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Black, 42 (BK-M68B-42) | 19 | 21 | -2 | -9.5% |
-18.8% |
Regression | Better by 9.3 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Black, 46 (BK-M68B-46) | 20 | 21 | -1 | -4.8% |
-36.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 32.0 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Silver, 38 (BK-M68S-38) | 248 | 227 | 21 | 9.3% |
8.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 0.9 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Silver, 42 (BK-M68S-42) | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 0.6 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Silver, 46 (BK-M68S-46) | 32 | 29 | 3 | 10.3% |
-10.3% |
Regression | Worse by 0.1 %pts |
| Mountain-300 Black, 38 (BK-M47B-38) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | The same |
| Mountain-300 Black, 40 (BK-M47B-40) | 15 | 14 | 1 | 7.1% |
9.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 2.7 %pts |
| Mountain-300 Black, 44 (BK-M47B-44) | 11 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% |
3.1% |
Regression | Worse by 34.4 %pts |
| Mountain-300 Black, 48 (BK-M47B-48) | 168 | 196 | -28 | -14.3% |
6.8% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 7.5 %pts |
| Mountain-400-W Silver, 38 (BK-M38S-38) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Mountain-400-W Silver, 40 (BK-M38S-40) | 85 | 73 | 12 | 16.4% |
-24.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 8.2 %pts |
| Mountain-400-W Silver, 42 (BK-M38S-42) | 18 | 16 | 2 | 12.5% |
-14.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 2.0 %pts |
| Mountain-400-W Silver, 46 (BK-M38S-46) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 0.3 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 40 (BK-M18B-40) | 273 | 203 | 70 | 34.5% |
34.8% |
Regression | Better by 0.3 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 42 (BK-M18B-42) | 18 | 19 | -1 | -5.3% |
-4.8% |
Exponential | Worse by 0.4 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 44 (BK-M18B-44) | 112 | 103 | 9 | 8.7% |
-15.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 6.7 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 48 (BK-M18B-48) | 226 | 208 | 18 | 8.7% |
36.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 28.0 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 52 (BK-M18B-52) | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% |
43.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 43.8 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 40 (BK-M18S-40) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 42 (BK-M18S-42) | 24 | 21 | 3 | 14.3% |
7.7% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 6.6 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 44 (BK-M18S-44) | 298 | 299 | -1 | -0.3% |
-3.1% |
Regression | Better by 2.8 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 48 (BK-M18S-48) | 15 | 15 | 0 | 0.0% |
1.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 1.9 %pts |
| Patch Kit/8 Patches (PK-7098) | 20 | 16 | 4 | 25.0% |
47.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 22.3 %pts |
| Racing Socks, L (SO-R809-L) | 24 | 26 | -2 | -7.7% |
-12.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 4.3 %pts |
| Racing Socks, M (SO-R809-M) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Rear Brakes (RB-9231) | 20 | 15 | 5 | 33.3% |
12.5% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 20.8 %pts |
| Rear Derailleur (RD-2308) | 462 | 382 | 80 | 20.9% |
16.3% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 4.7 %pts |
| Road Bottle Cage (BC-R205) | 19 | 17 | 2 | 11.8% |
19.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 7.8 %pts |
| Road Tire Tube (TT-R982) | 14 | 13 | 1 | 7.7% |
39.9% |
Regression | Better by 32.2 %pts |
| Road-150 Red, 44 (BK-R93R-44) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
50.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 50.4 %pts |
| Road-150 Red, 48 (BK-R93R-48) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
8.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 8.3 %pts |
| Road-150 Red, 52 (BK-R93R-52) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-20.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 20.9 %pts |
| Road-150 Red, 62 (BK-R93R-62) | 8 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% |
1.8% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 31.5 %pts |
| Road-250 Black, 44 (BK-R89B-44) | 355 | 388 | -33 | -8.5% |
-13.1% |
Exponential | Better by 4.6 %pts |
| Road-250 Black, 48 (BK-R89B-48) | 44 | 40 | 4 | 10.0% |
7.3% |
Exponential | Worse by 2.7 %pts |
| Road-250 Black, 52 (BK-R89B-52) | 17 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% |
51.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 20.8 %pts |
| Road-250 Black, 58 (BK-R89B-58) | 12 | 13 | -1 | -7.7% |
24.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 16.9 %pts |
| Road-250 Red, 44 (BK-R89R-44) | 19 | 20 | -1 | -5.0% |
-4.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 1.0 %pts |
| Road-250 Red, 48 (BK-R89R-48) | 173 | 195 | -22 | -11.3% |
-48.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 37.4 %pts |
| Road-250 Red, 52 (BK-R89R-52) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
30.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 30.8 %pts |
| Road-250 Red, 58 (BK-R89R-58) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-3.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 3.5 %pts |
| Road-350-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R79Y-40) | 15 | 17 | -2 | -11.8% |
-6.2% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 5.6 %pts |
| Road-350-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R79Y-42) | 11 | 12 | -1 | -8.3% |
-9.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 0.6 %pts |
| Road-350-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R79Y-44) | 10 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% |
127.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 84.8 %pts |
| Road-350-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R79Y-48) | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0.0% |
-45.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 45.2 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 44 (BK-R68R-44) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
-7.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 7.6 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 48 (BK-R68R-48) | 12 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% |
-4.1% |
Regression | Worse by 5.0 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 52 (BK-R68R-52) | 15 | 15 | 0 | 0.0% |
-5.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 5.6 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 58 (BK-R68R-58) | 21 | 22 | -1 | -4.5% |
-8.3% |
Exponential | Better by 3.8 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 60 (BK-R68R-60) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
-5.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 5.0 %pts |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 38 (BK-R64Y-38) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
-1.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 1.9 %pts |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R64Y-40) | 13 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% |
10.5% |
Exponential | Better by 2.1 %pts |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R64Y-42) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
22.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 22.2 %pts |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R64Y-44) | 21 | 18 | 3 | 16.7% |
-30.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 13.6 %pts |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R64Y-48) | 6 | 7 | -1 | -14.3% |
2.8% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 11.5 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 44 (BK-R50B-44) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-56.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 56.5 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 48 (BK-R50B-48) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
51.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 51.5 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 58 (BK-R50B-58) | 21 | 18 | 3 | 16.7% |
-14.9% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 1.8 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 60 (BK-R50B-60) | 15 | 16 | -1 | -6.3% |
-16.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 10.0 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 62 (BK-R50B-62) | 19 | 21 | -2 | -9.5% |
-22.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 13.1 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 44 (BK-R50R-44) | 16 | 19 | -3 | -15.8% |
2.5% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 13.3 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 48 (BK-R50R-48) | 17 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% |
62.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 41.5 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 52 (BK-R50R-52) | 114 | 105 | 9 | 8.6% |
-2.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 6.2 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 58 (BK-R50R-58) | 13 | 15 | -2 | -13.3% |
-24.4% |
Exponential | Better by 11.0 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 60 (BK-R50R-60) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-2.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 2.2 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 62 (BK-R50R-62) | 408 | 362 | 46 | 12.7% |
-25.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 12.6 %pts |
| Road-750 Black, 44 (BK-R19B-44) | 20 | 22 | -2 | -9.1% |
-30.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 21.2 %pts |
| Road-750 Black, 48 (BK-R19B-48) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Road-750 Black, 52 (BK-R19B-52) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-21.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 21.8 %pts |
| Road-750 Black, 58 (BK-R19B-58) | 16 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% |
4.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 41.0 %pts |
| Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, L (SJ-0194-L) | 8 | 9 | -1 | -11.1% |
-1.2% |
Regression | Worse by 9.9 %pts |
| Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, M (SJ-0194-M) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
54.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 54.5 %pts |
| Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, S (SJ-0194-S) | 62 | 61 | 1 | 1.6% |
-1.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 0.6 %pts |
| Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, XL (SJ-0194-X) | 32 | 33 | -1 | -3.0% |
-5.2% |
Exponential | Better by 2.2 %pts |
| Sport-100 Helmet, Black (HL-U509) | 12 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% |
63.3% |
Exponential | Better by 13.3 %pts |
| Sport-100 Helmet, Blue (HL-U509-B) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
23.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 23.1 %pts |
| Sport-100 Helmet, Red (HL-U509-R) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Taillights - Battery-Powered (LT-T990) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
-30.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 30.1 %pts |
| Touring Front Wheel (FW-T905) | 14 | 15 | -1 | -6.7% |
-33.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 27.1 %pts |
| Touring Pedal (PD-T852) | 10 | 12 | -2 | -16.7% |
-24.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 7.8 %pts |
| Touring Rear Wheel (RW-T905) | 35 | 34 | 1 | 2.9% |
-9.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 6.8 %pts |
| Touring Tire (TI-T723) | 27 | 23 | 4 | 17.4% |
22.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 5.3 %pts |
| Touring Tire Tube (TT-T092) | 22 | 21 | 1 | 4.8% |
-8.5% |
Regression | Better by 3.8 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Blue, 46 (BK-T79U-46) | 15 | 14 | 1 | 7.1% |
29.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 21.9 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Blue, 50 (BK-T79U-50) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
21.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 21.5 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Blue, 54 (BK-T79U-54) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
22.4% |
Regression | Better by 22.4 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Blue, 60 (BK-T79U-60) | 58 | 55 | 3 | 5.5% |
-2.4% |
Regression | Worse by 3.0 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Yellow, 46 (BK-T79Y-46) | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% |
5.6% |
Regression | Better by 5.6 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T79Y-50) | 20 | 23 | -3 | -13.0% |
-36.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 23.3 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T79Y-54) | 58 | 48 | 10 | 20.8% |
10.2% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 10.7 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Yellow, 60 (BK-T79Y-60) | 16 | 15 | 1 | 6.7% |
3.8% |
Regression | Worse by 2.9 %pts |
| Touring-2000 Blue, 46 (BK-T44U-46) | 21 | 22 | -1 | -4.5% |
-23.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 18.8 %pts |
| Touring-2000 Blue, 50 (BK-T44U-50) | 29 | 26 | 3 | 11.5% |
-26.0% |
Regression | Better by 14.5 %pts |
| Touring-2000 Blue, 54 (BK-T44U-54) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
-19.7% |
Regression | Better by 19.7 %pts |
| Touring-2000 Blue, 60 (BK-T44U-60) | 39 | 40 | -1 | -2.5% |
-16.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 14.3 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 44 (BK-T18U-44) | 20 | 18 | 2 | 11.1% |
15.4% |
Regression | Better by 4.3 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 50 (BK-T18U-50) | 27 | 18 | 9 | 50.0% |
49.3% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 0.7 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 54 (BK-T18U-54) | 19 | 20 | -1 | -5.0% |
-15.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 10.0 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 58 (BK-T18U-58) | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0.0% |
28.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 28.5 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 62 (BK-T18U-62) | 11 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% |
12.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 2.1 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 44 (BK-T18Y-44) | 371 | 369 | 2 | 0.5% |
-20.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 20.2 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T18Y-50) | 83 | 91 | -8 | -8.8% |
-37.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 28.7 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T18Y-54) | 37 | 33 | 4 | 12.1% |
-9.3% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 2.9 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 58 (BK-T18Y-58) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 62 (BK-T18Y-62) | 242 | 221 | 21 | 9.5% |
24.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 14.6 %pts |
| Touring-Panniers, Large (PA-T100) | 33 | 23 | 10 | 43.5% |
36.9% |
Exponential | Worse by 6.6 %pts |
| Water Bottle - 30 oz. (WB-H098) | 17 | 15 | 2 | 13.3% |
40.1% |
Regression | Better by 26.7 %pts |
| Women's Mountain Shorts, M (SH-W890-M) | 9 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% |
55.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 27.2 %pts |
| Women's Mountain Shorts, S (SH-W890-S) | 16 | 15 | 1 | 6.7% |
-7.8% |
Regression | Better by 1.1 %pts |
| Women's Tights, L (TG-W091-L) | 495 | 483 | 12 | 2.5% |
-12.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 10.3 %pts |
| Women's Tights, M (TG-W091-M) | 296 | 290 | 6 | 2.1% |
6.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 4.3 %pts |
| Women's Tights, S (TG-W091-S) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
-18.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 18.0 %pts |
| Total | 14,644 | 14,098 | 546 | 3.9% | -3.1% | Better in 211 out of 299 items (70.6%) |
| Weighted Average % Error | 13.5% | Weighted Average % Error (Alt) | 12.4% | Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) | 9.9% | Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) | 6.6 |
| Weighted Average % Error-Statistics | 20.5% | Weighted Average % Error (Alt)-Statistics | 6.9% | Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)-Statistics | 20.8% | Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)-Statistics | 9.7 |
| Forecast | Actual | Variance | Percent Error | Stats Pct Error | Best Algorithm | Human vs. Statistics | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All-Purpose Bike Stand (ST-1401) | 84 | 93 | -9 | -9.7% |
30.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 21.1 %pts |
| AWC Logo Cap (CA-1098) | 62 | 65 | -3 | -4.6% |
-9.3% |
Regression | Better by 4.7 %pts |
| Bike Wash - Dissolver (CL-9009) | 21 | 21 | 0 | 0.0% |
-12.9% |
Exponential | Better by 12.9 %pts |
| Chain (CH-0234) | 11 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% |
41.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 31.3 %pts |
| Classic Vest, L (VE-C304-L) | 12 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% |
50.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 30.4 %pts |
| Classic Vest, M (VE-C304-M) | 41 | 38 | 3 | 7.9% |
16.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 8.5 %pts |
| Classic Vest, S (VE-C304-S) | 15 | 16 | -1 | -6.3% |
-22.3% |
Exponential | Better by 16.1 %pts |
| Fender Set - Mountain (FE-6654) | 29 | 19 | 10 | 52.6% |
6.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 46.1 %pts |
| Front Brakes (FB-9873) | 21 | 19 | 2 | 10.5% |
-1.1% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 9.4 %pts |
| Front Derailleur (FD-2342) | 18 | 17 | 1 | 5.9% |
13.2% |
Exponential | Better by 7.3 %pts |
| Full-Finger Gloves, L (GL-F110-L) | 182 | 196 | -14 | -7.1% |
-12.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 5.6 %pts |
| Full-Finger Gloves, M (GL-F110-M) | 16 | 18 | -2 | -11.1% |
-22.1% |
Regression | Better by 11.0 %pts |
| Full-Finger Gloves, S (GL-F110-S) | 15 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% |
27.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 2.5 %pts |
| Half-Finger Gloves, L (GL-H102-L) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-20.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 20.2 %pts |
| Half-Finger Gloves, M (GL-H102-M) | 51 | 37 | 14 | 37.8% |
14.5% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 23.3 %pts |
| Half-Finger Gloves, S (GL-H102-S) | 35 | 27 | 8 | 29.6% |
30.4% |
Regression | Better by 0.8 %pts |
| Headlights - Dual-Beam (LT-H902) | 27 | 28 | -1 | -3.6% |
13.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 9.6 %pts |
| Headlights - Weatherproof (LT-H903) | 8 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% |
115.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 55.2 %pts |
| Hitch Rack - 4-Bike (RA-H123) | 23 | 20 | 3 | 15.0% |
34.9% |
Regression | Better by 19.9 %pts |
| HL Bottom Bracket (BB-9108) | 23 | 25 | -2 | -8.0% |
17.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 9.5 %pts |
| HL Crankset (CS-9183) | 32 | 29 | 3 | 10.3% |
-5.0% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 5.3 %pts |
| HL Fork (FK-9939) | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0.0% |
-7.4% |
Exponential | Better by 7.4 %pts |
| HL Headset (HS-3479) | 38 | 27 | 11 | 40.7% |
16.4% |
Exponential | Worse by 24.3 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M94B-38) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
31.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 31.5 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M94B-42) | 14 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% |
5.6% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 11.1 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M94B-44) | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% |
12.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 12.8 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 46 (FR-M94B-46) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
-0.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 0.2 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M94B-48) | 16 | 16 | 0 | 0.0% |
20.0% |
Exponential | Better by 20.0 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 38 (FR-M94S-38) | 21 | 18 | 3 | 16.7% |
-38.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 21.3 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M94S-42) | 14 | 14 | 0 | 0.0% |
-50.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 50.1 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M94S-44) | 16 | 16 | 0 | 0.0% |
-31.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 31.3 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 46 (FR-M94S-46) | 23 | 21 | 2 | 9.5% |
-24.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 14.8 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M94S-52) | 20 | 19 | 1 | 5.3% |
7.7% |
Exponential | Better by 2.4 %pts |
| HL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M928) | 18 | 19 | -1 | -5.3% |
-35.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 30.1 %pts |
| HL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M918) | 19 | 17 | 2 | 11.8% |
14.9% |
Exponential | Better by 3.1 %pts |
| HL Mountain Pedal (PD-M562) | 16 | 15 | 1 | 6.7% |
61.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 54.4 %pts |
| HL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M928) | 15 | 14 | 1 | 7.1% |
10.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 3.4 %pts |
| HL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M940) | 22 | 19 | 3 | 15.8% |
-3.4% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 12.4 %pts |
| HL Mountain Tire (TI-M823) | 11 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% |
13.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 3.3 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R92B-44) | 40 | 43 | -3 | -7.0% |
7.2% |
Regression | Better by 0.2 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R92B-48) | 165 | 187 | -22 | -11.8% |
-46.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 35.1 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R92B-52) | 417 | 251 | 166 | 66.1% |
43.1% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 23.1 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R92B-58) | 16 | 15 | 1 | 6.7% |
-34.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 27.5 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R92B-62) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | The same |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R92R-44) | 359 | 426 | -67 | -15.7% |
-29.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 14.1 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R92R-48) | 24 | 24 | 0 | 0.0% |
-21.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 21.2 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R92R-52) | 18 | 19 | -1 | -5.3% |
-14.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 8.8 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 56 (FR-R92R-56) | 22 | 21 | 1 | 4.8% |
-27.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 22.7 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R92R-58) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R92R-62) | 133 | 83 | 50 | 60.2% |
45.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 15.0 %pts |
| HL Road Front Wheel (FW-R820) | 38 | 29 | 9 | 31.0% |
23.5% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 7.6 %pts |
| HL Road Handlebars (HB-R956) | 19 | 18 | 1 | 5.6% |
15.1% |
Exponential | Better by 9.5 %pts |
| HL Road Pedal (PD-R853) | 36 | 33 | 3 | 9.1% |
0.0% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 9.1 %pts |
| HL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R820) | 18 | 15 | 3 | 20.0% |
11.0% |
Regression | Worse by 9.0 %pts |
| HL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R995) | 16 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% |
41.1% |
Regression | Worse by 4.3 %pts |
| HL Road Tire (TI-R982) | 20 | 14 | 6 | 42.9% |
16.8% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 26.0 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Blue, 46 (FR-T98U-46) | 18 | 13 | 5 | 38.5% |
15.0% |
Exponential | Worse by 23.5 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T98U-50) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
-7.7% |
Regression | Better by 7.7 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T98U-54) | 18 | 15 | 3 | 20.0% |
23.5% |
Regression | Better by 3.5 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Blue, 60 (FR-T98U-60) | 413 | 391 | 22 | 5.6% |
-4.6% |
Regression | Worse by 1.1 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 46 (FR-T98Y-46) | 145 | 136 | 9 | 6.6% |
-5.9% |
Regression | Worse by 0.7 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T98Y-50) | 8 | 9 | -1 | -11.1% |
-27.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 16.8 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T98Y-54) | 189 | 188 | 1 | 0.5% |
12.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 11.4 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 60 (FR-T98Y-60) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
25.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 25.0 %pts |
| HL Touring Handlebars (HB-T928) | 20 | 17 | 3 | 17.6% |
3.3% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 14.3 %pts |
| HL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T924) | 13 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% |
-24.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 16.4 %pts |
| Hydration Pack - 70 oz. (HY-1023-70) | 7 | 8 | -1 | -12.5% |
19.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 7.3 %pts |
| LL Bottom Bracket (BB-7421) | 21 | 19 | 2 | 10.5% |
60.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 49.8 %pts |
| LL Crankset (CS-4759) | 15 | 17 | -2 | -11.8% |
-40.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 28.2 %pts |
| LL Fork (FK-1639) | 21 | 19 | 2 | 10.5% |
-18.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 8.2 %pts |
| LL Headset (HS-0296) | 24 | 22 | 2 | 9.1% |
11.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 1.9 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M21B-40) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M21B-42) | 29 | 26 | 3 | 11.5% |
-15.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 3.7 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M21B-44) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-16.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 16.1 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M21B-48) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
81.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 81.8 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 52 (FR-M21B-52) | 200 | 165 | 35 | 21.2% |
-35.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 13.9 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 40 (FR-M21S-40) | 206 | 145 | 61 | 42.1% |
35.5% |
Regression | Worse by 6.6 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M21S-42) | 12 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% |
-8.0% |
Regression | Worse by 25.3 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M21S-44) | 184 | 195 | -11 | -5.6% |
-28.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 22.5 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M21S-48) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
50.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 50.0 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 52 (FR-M21S-52) | 257 | 284 | -27 | -9.5% |
-29.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 19.6 %pts |
| LL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M423) | 7 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% |
10.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 6.2 %pts |
| LL Mountain Pedal (PD-M282) | 12 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% |
38.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 11.5 %pts |
| LL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M423) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
29.5% |
Regression | Better by 29.5 %pts |
| LL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M236) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
-100.0% |
Regression | Better by 100.0 %pts |
| LL Mountain Tire (TI-M267) | 15 | 15 | 0 | 0.0% |
-55.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 55.9 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R38B-44) | 30 | 28 | 2 | 7.1% |
-8.7% |
Regression | Better by 1.5 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R38B-48) | 6 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% |
115.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 65.0 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R38B-52) | 9 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% |
4.7% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 23.8 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R38B-58) | 26 | 28 | -2 | -7.1% |
17.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 10.7 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 60 (FR-R38B-60) | 22 | 21 | 1 | 4.8% |
16.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 11.6 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R38B-62) | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% |
-0.8% |
Regression | Better by 0.8 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R38R-44) | 285 | 315 | -30 | -9.5% |
7.9% |
Regression | Worse by 1.6 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R38R-48) | 16 | 16 | 0 | 0.0% |
23.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 23.0 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R38R-52) | 27 | 19 | 8 | 42.1% |
12.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 29.3 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R38R-58) | 290 | 159 | 131 | 82.4% |
76.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 5.9 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R38R-60) | 231 | 191 | 40 | 20.9% |
39.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 18.9 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R38R-62) | 12 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% |
0.5% |
Regression | Worse by 19.5 %pts |
| LL Road Front Wheel (FW-R623) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
60.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 60.3 %pts |
| LL Road Handlebars (HB-R504) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-11.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 11.9 %pts |
| LL Road Pedal (PD-R347) | 36 | 36 | 0 | 0.0% |
-6.8% |
Exponential | Better by 6.8 %pts |
| LL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R623) | 22 | 22 | 0 | 0.0% |
16.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 16.8 %pts |
| LL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R581) | 528 | 554 | -26 | -4.7% |
-43.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 38.8 %pts |
| LL Road Tire (TI-R092) | 18 | 19 | -1 | -5.3% |
22.6% |
Regression | Better by 17.3 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 44 (FR-T67U-44) | 21 | 22 | -1 | -4.5% |
-8.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 4.1 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T67U-50) | 16 | 16 | 0 | 0.0% |
-4.2% |
Regression | Better by 4.2 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T67U-54) | 38 | 40 | -2 | -5.0% |
2.1% |
Regression | Worse by 2.9 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 58 (FR-T67U-58) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-2.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 2.9 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 62 (FR-T67U-62) | 23 | 19 | 4 | 21.1% |
3.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 17.5 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 44 (FR-T67Y-44) | 13 | 8 | 5 | 62.5% |
63.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 0.9 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T67Y-50) | 24 | 23 | 1 | 4.3% |
-13.7% |
Exponential | Better by 9.4 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T67Y-54) | 248 | 267 | -19 | -7.1% |
-46.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 39.0 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 58 (FR-T67Y-58) | 14 | 14 | 0 | 0.0% |
-5.9% |
Regression | Better by 5.9 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 62 (FR-T67Y-62) | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% |
25.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 25.3 %pts |
| LL Touring Handlebars (HB-T721) | 14 | 15 | -1 | -6.7% |
-10.4% |
Regression | Better by 3.7 %pts |
| LL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T312) | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% |
23.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 23.7 %pts |
| Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, L (LJ-0192-L) | 19 | 20 | -1 | -5.0% |
-14.1% |
Exponential | Better by 9.1 %pts |
| Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, M (LJ-0192-M) | 259 | 206 | 53 | 25.7% |
34.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 8.4 %pts |
| Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, S (LJ-0192-S) | 15 | 16 | -1 | -6.3% |
-26.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 20.0 %pts |
| Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, XL (LJ-0192-X) | 10 | 11 | -1 | -9.1% |
-2.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 6.9 %pts |
| Men's Bib-Shorts, L (SB-M891-L) | 24 | 21 | 3 | 14.3% |
-14.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 0.1 %pts |
| Men's Bib-Shorts, M (SB-M891-M) | 20 | 19 | 1 | 5.3% |
-4.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 0.4 %pts |
| Men's Bib-Shorts, S (SB-M891-S) | 65 | 68 | -3 | -4.4% |
-14.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 9.7 %pts |
| Men's Sports Shorts, L (SH-M897-L) | 25 | 27 | -2 | -7.4% |
-30.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 22.9 %pts |
| Men's Sports Shorts, M (SH-M897-M) | 25 | 23 | 2 | 8.7% |
-8.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | The same |
| Men's Sports Shorts, S (SH-M897-S) | 204 | 164 | 40 | 24.4% |
11.5% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 12.8 %pts |
| Men's Sports Shorts, XL (SH-M897-X) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-34.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 34.8 %pts |
| Minipump (PU-0452) | 277 | 168 | 109 | 64.9% |
48.8% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 16.1 %pts |
| ML Bottom Bracket (BB-8107) | 95 | 91 | 4 | 4.4% |
23.1% |
Exponential | Better by 18.7 %pts |
| ML Crankset (CS-6583) | 16 | 14 | 2 | 14.3% |
24.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 10.1 %pts |
| ML Fork (FK-5136) | 23 | 23 | 0 | 0.0% |
-34.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 34.4 %pts |
| ML Headset (HS-2451) | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% |
-26.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 26.6 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M63B-38) | 17 | 17 | 0 | 0.0% |
29.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 29.5 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M63B-40) | 24 | 21 | 3 | 14.3% |
-8.2% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 6.1 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M63B-44) | 33 | 36 | -3 | -8.3% |
-15.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 7.1 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M63B-48) | 413 | 325 | 88 | 27.1% |
5.8% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 21.3 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 38 (FR-M63S-38) | 8 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% |
29.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 3.7 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 40 (FR-M63S-40) | 18 | 19 | -1 | -5.3% |
-28.4% |
Regression | Better by 23.1 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 42 (FR-M63S-42) | 27 | 26 | 1 | 3.8% |
14.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 10.8 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 46 (FR-M63S-46) | 366 | 281 | 85 | 30.2% |
47.2% |
Exponential | Better by 17.0 %pts |
| ML Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M762) | 29 | 25 | 4 | 16.0% |
4.4% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 11.6 %pts |
| ML Mountain Handlebars (HB-M763) | 31 | 32 | -1 | -3.1% |
-32.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 28.8 %pts |
| ML Mountain Pedal (PD-M340) | 8 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% |
9.4% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 4.9 %pts |
| ML Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M762) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
-12.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 12.2 %pts |
| ML Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M798) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
-32.4% |
Exponential | Better by 32.4 %pts |
| ML Mountain Tire (TI-M602) | 180 | 169 | 11 | 6.5% |
-34.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 28.3 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R72R-44) | 33 | 34 | -1 | -2.9% |
-10.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 7.5 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R72R-48) | 336 | 381 | -45 | -11.8% |
-23.2% |
Regression | Better by 11.4 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R72R-52) | 204 | 226 | -22 | -9.7% |
3.3% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 6.4 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R72R-58) | 13 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% |
-43.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 35.2 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R72R-60) | 23 | 24 | -1 | -4.2% |
-26.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 22.4 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 38 (FR-R72Y-38) | 12 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% |
36.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 27.3 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 40 (FR-R72Y-40) | 20 | 15 | 5 | 33.3% |
55.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 22.4 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 42 (FR-R72Y-42) | 21 | 19 | 2 | 10.5% |
21.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 10.9 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 44 (FR-R72Y-44) | 36 | 27 | 9 | 33.3% |
50.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 17.3 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 48 (FR-R72Y-48) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
165.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 165.4 %pts |
| ML Road Front Wheel (FW-R762) | 246 | 198 | 48 | 24.2% |
1.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 22.3 %pts |
| ML Road Handlebars (HB-R720) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
5.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 5.0 %pts |
| ML Road Pedal (PD-R563) | 268 | 292 | -24 | -8.2% |
-26.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 18.3 %pts |
| ML Road Rear Wheel (RW-R762) | 14 | 14 | 0 | 0.0% |
5.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 5.6 %pts |
| ML Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R908) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-21.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 21.2 %pts |
| ML Road Tire (TI-R628) | 20 | 21 | -1 | -4.8% |
-34.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 29.3 %pts |
| ML Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T762) | 12 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% |
31.8% |
Regression | Better by 11.8 %pts |
| Mountain Bike Socks, L (SO-B909-L) | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% |
4.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 4.7 %pts |
| Mountain Bike Socks, M (SO-B909-M) | 25 | 21 | 4 | 19.0% |
7.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 11.7 %pts |
| Mountain Bottle Cage (BC-M005) | 23 | 16 | 7 | 43.8% |
2.7% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 41.1 %pts |
| Mountain Pump (PU-M044) | 22 | 23 | -1 | -4.3% |
-33.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 29.3 %pts |
| Mountain Tire Tube (TT-M928) | 37 | 29 | 8 | 27.6% |
35.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 7.9 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Black, 38 (BK-M82B-38) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
23.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 23.7 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Black, 42 (BK-M82B-42) | 399 | 398 | 1 | 0.3% |
-10.3% |
Regression | Better by 10.0 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Black, 44 (BK-M82B-44) | 42 | 41 | 1 | 2.4% |
-5.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 3.1 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Black, 48 (BK-M82B-48) | 9 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% |
-33.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 20.7 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Silver, 38 (BK-M82S-38) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
-3.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 3.6 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Silver, 42 (BK-M82S-42) | 20 | 20 | 0 | 0.0% |
-54.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 54.2 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Silver, 44 (BK-M82S-44) | 19 | 19 | 0 | 0.0% |
-10.9% |
Regression | Better by 10.9 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Silver, 48 (BK-M82S-48) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-39.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 39.4 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Black, 38 (BK-M68B-38) | 23 | 21 | 2 | 9.5% |
-14.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 4.8 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Black, 42 (BK-M68B-42) | 25 | 24 | 1 | 4.2% |
17.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 13.3 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Black, 46 (BK-M68B-46) | 15 | 17 | -2 | -11.8% |
-27.2% |
Exponential | Better by 15.4 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Silver, 38 (BK-M68S-38) | 182 | 139 | 43 | 30.9% |
34.9% |
Exponential | Better by 4.0 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Silver, 42 (BK-M68S-42) | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% |
53.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 53.6 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Silver, 46 (BK-M68S-46) | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% |
-3.5% |
Exponential | Better by 3.5 %pts |
| Mountain-300 Black, 38 (BK-M47B-38) | 34 | 38 | -4 | -10.5% |
-39.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 28.7 %pts |
| Mountain-300 Black, 40 (BK-M47B-40) | 570 | 647 | -77 | -11.9% |
-23.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 11.8 %pts |
| Mountain-300 Black, 44 (BK-M47B-44) | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% |
4.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 4.5 %pts |
| Mountain-300 Black, 48 (BK-M47B-48) | 210 | 188 | 22 | 11.7% |
-9.4% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 2.3 %pts |
| Mountain-400-W Silver, 38 (BK-M38S-38) | 29 | 24 | 5 | 20.8% |
-7.3% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 13.5 %pts |
| Mountain-400-W Silver, 40 (BK-M38S-40) | 355 | 378 | -23 | -6.1% |
19.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 13.4 %pts |
| Mountain-400-W Silver, 42 (BK-M38S-42) | 17 | 10 | 7 | 70.0% |
124.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 54.7 %pts |
| Mountain-400-W Silver, 46 (BK-M38S-46) | 28 | 26 | 2 | 7.7% |
49.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 41.4 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 40 (BK-M18B-40) | 89 | 91 | -2 | -2.2% |
24.6% |
Regression | Better by 22.4 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 42 (BK-M18B-42) | 22 | 21 | 1 | 4.8% |
18.2% |
Regression | Better by 13.4 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 44 (BK-M18B-44) | 240 | 166 | 74 | 44.6% |
-3.4% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 41.1 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 48 (BK-M18B-48) | 123 | 160 | -37 | -23.1% |
-11.1% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 12.0 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 52 (BK-M18B-52) | 21 | 20 | 1 | 5.0% |
20.4% |
Regression | Better by 15.4 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 40 (BK-M18S-40) | 17 | 17 | 0 | 0.0% |
-4.4% |
Regression | Better by 4.4 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 42 (BK-M18S-42) | 223 | 264 | -41 | -15.5% |
-24.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 9.3 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 44 (BK-M18S-44) | 33 | 34 | -1 | -2.9% |
-10.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 7.5 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 48 (BK-M18S-48) | 18 | 15 | 3 | 20.0% |
3.7% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 16.3 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 52 (BK-M18S-52) | 27 | 24 | 3 | 12.5% |
-4.6% |
Exponential | Worse by 7.9 %pts |
| Patch Kit/8 Patches (PK-7098) | 343 | 250 | 93 | 37.2% |
19.4% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 17.8 %pts |
| Racing Socks, L (SO-R809-L) | 12 | 13 | -1 | -7.7% |
-42.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 35.0 %pts |
| Racing Socks, M (SO-R809-M) | 9 | 10 | -1 | -10.0% |
-30.2% |
Regression | Better by 20.2 %pts |
| Rear Brakes (RB-9231) | 16 | 14 | 2 | 14.3% |
1.6% |
Exponential | Worse by 12.7 %pts |
| Rear Derailleur (RD-2308) | 63 | 72 | -9 | -12.5% |
-23.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 10.9 %pts |
| Road Bottle Cage (BC-R205) | 13 | 14 | -1 | -7.1% |
-22.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 15.4 %pts |
| Road Tire Tube (TT-R982) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Road-150 Red, 44 (BK-R93R-44) | 22 | 23 | -1 | -4.3% |
1.5% |
Exponential | Worse by 2.9 %pts |
| Road-150 Red, 48 (BK-R93R-48) | 22 | 27 | -5 | -18.5% |
-12.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 5.9 %pts |
| Road-150 Red, 52 (BK-R93R-52) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-11.6% |
Exponential | Better by 11.6 %pts |
| Road-150 Red, 56 (BK-R93R-56) | 14 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% |
19.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 2.7 %pts |
| Road-150 Red, 62 (BK-R93R-62) | 14 | 15 | -1 | -6.7% |
-1.9% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 4.7 %pts |
| Road-250 Black, 44 (BK-R89B-44) | 305 | 172 | 133 | 77.3% |
59.5% |
Exponential | Worse by 17.8 %pts |
| Road-250 Black, 48 (BK-R89B-48) | 355 | 390 | -35 | -9.0% |
0.3% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 8.7 %pts |
| Road-250 Black, 52 (BK-R89B-52) | 10 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% |
-25.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 0.8 %pts |
| Road-250 Black, 58 (BK-R89B-58) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
112.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 112.3 %pts |
| Road-250 Red, 44 (BK-R89R-44) | 576 | 511 | 65 | 12.7% |
7.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 4.8 %pts |
| Road-250 Red, 48 (BK-R89R-48) | 570 | 568 | 2 | 0.4% |
-0.7% |
Exponential | Better by 0.4 %pts |
| Road-250 Red, 52 (BK-R89R-52) | 12 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% |
-6.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 44.0 %pts |
| Road-250 Red, 58 (BK-R89R-58) | 17 | 15 | 2 | 13.3% |
-8.9% |
Exponential | Worse by 4.5 %pts |
| Road-350-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R79Y-40) | 17 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% |
-23.2% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 7.5 %pts |
| Road-350-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R79Y-42) | 19 | 19 | 0 | 0.0% |
-25.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 25.2 %pts |
| Road-350-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R79Y-44) | 13 | 15 | -2 | -13.3% |
-24.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 11.4 %pts |
| Road-350-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R79Y-48) | 25 | 18 | 7 | 38.9% |
27.9% |
Regression | Worse by 11.0 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 44 (BK-R68R-44) | 21 | 21 | 0 | 0.0% |
-10.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 10.0 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 48 (BK-R68R-48) | 74 | 73 | 1 | 1.4% |
36.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 35.2 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 52 (BK-R68R-52) | 16 | 17 | -1 | -5.9% |
-17.4% |
Exponential | Better by 11.6 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 58 (BK-R68R-58) | 42 | 36 | 6 | 16.7% |
30.3% |
Regression | Better by 13.7 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 60 (BK-R68R-60) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-27.3% |
Regression | Better by 27.3 %pts |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 38 (BK-R64Y-38) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
-22.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 22.9 %pts |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R64Y-40) | 16 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% |
11.4% |
Regression | Worse by 11.7 %pts |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R64Y-42) | 14 | 15 | -1 | -6.7% |
-14.6% |
Regression | Better by 7.9 %pts |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R64Y-44) | 10 | 11 | -1 | -9.1% |
-0.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 8.3 %pts |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R64Y-48) | 37 | 39 | -2 | -5.1% |
-22.8% |
Exponential | Better by 17.7 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 44 (BK-R50B-44) | 8 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% |
-10.6% |
Regression | Worse by 3.6 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 48 (BK-R50B-48) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
3.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 3.7 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 52 (BK-R50B-52) | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% |
32.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 32.1 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 58 (BK-R50B-58) | 20 | 17 | 3 | 17.6% |
-7.1% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 10.6 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 60 (BK-R50B-60) | 26 | 20 | 6 | 30.0% |
33.9% |
Exponential | Better by 3.9 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 62 (BK-R50B-62) | 29 | 26 | 3 | 11.5% |
1.3% |
Exponential | Worse by 10.2 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 44 (BK-R50R-44) | 14 | 14 | 0 | 0.0% |
7.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 7.7 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 48 (BK-R50R-48) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-100.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 100.0 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 52 (BK-R50R-52) | 34 | 34 | 0 | 0.0% |
-4.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 4.5 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 58 (BK-R50R-58) | 7 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% |
31.4% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 8.6 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 60 (BK-R50R-60) | 28 | 30 | -2 | -6.7% |
-5.9% |
Regression | Worse by 0.8 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 62 (BK-R50R-62) | 369 | 319 | 50 | 15.7% |
3.9% |
Exponential | Worse by 11.8 %pts |
| Road-750 Black, 44 (BK-R19B-44) | 33 | 32 | 1 | 3.1% |
13.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 10.2 %pts |
| Road-750 Black, 48 (BK-R19B-48) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
15.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 15.0 %pts |
| Road-750 Black, 52 (BK-R19B-52) | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0.0% |
29.2% |
Regression | Better by 29.2 %pts |
| Road-750 Black, 58 (BK-R19B-58) | 19 | 16 | 3 | 18.8% |
31.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 12.5 %pts |
| Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, L (SJ-0194-L) | 15 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% |
83.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 47.0 %pts |
| Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, M (SJ-0194-M) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
2.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 2.8 %pts |
| Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, S (SJ-0194-S) | 214 | 273 | -59 | -21.6% |
-32.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 11.3 %pts |
| Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, XL (SJ-0194-X) | 14 | 9 | 5 | 55.6% |
69.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 14.1 %pts |
| Sport-100 Helmet, Black (HL-U509) | 34 | 35 | -1 | -2.9% |
-14.8% |
Regression | Better by 12.0 %pts |
| Sport-100 Helmet, Blue (HL-U509-B) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-29.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 29.0 %pts |
| Sport-100 Helmet, Red (HL-U509-R) | 38 | 27 | 11 | 40.7% |
26.4% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 14.3 %pts |
| Taillights - Battery-Powered (LT-T990) | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0.0% |
23.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 23.0 %pts |
| Touring Front Wheel (FW-T905) | 18 | 19 | -1 | -5.3% |
32.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 26.7 %pts |
| Touring Pedal (PD-T852) | 23 | 23 | 0 | 0.0% |
-31.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 31.4 %pts |
| Touring Rear Wheel (RW-T905) | 211 | 173 | 38 | 22.0% |
18.7% |
Exponential | Worse by 3.3 %pts |
| Touring Tire (TI-T723) | 27 | 23 | 4 | 17.4% |
12.3% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 5.1 %pts |
| Touring Tire Tube (TT-T092) | 22 | 25 | -3 | -12.0% |
-27.3% |
Exponential | Better by 15.3 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Blue, 46 (BK-T79U-46) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-19.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 19.3 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Blue, 50 (BK-T79U-50) | 19 | 13 | 6 | 46.2% |
21.3% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 24.8 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Blue, 54 (BK-T79U-54) | 6 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% |
25.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 5.0 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Blue, 60 (BK-T79U-60) | 211 | 133 | 78 | 58.6% |
33.4% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 25.3 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Yellow, 46 (BK-T79Y-46) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Touring-1000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T79Y-50) | 13 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% |
11.0% |
Regression | Better by 2.6 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T79Y-54) | 337 | 288 | 49 | 17.0% |
10.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 6.9 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Yellow, 60 (BK-T79Y-60) | 4 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
27.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 5.4 %pts |
| Touring-2000 Blue, 46 (BK-T44U-46) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
34.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 34.6 %pts |
| Touring-2000 Blue, 50 (BK-T44U-50) | 21 | 22 | -1 | -4.5% |
-3.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 1.2 %pts |
| Touring-2000 Blue, 54 (BK-T44U-54) | 17 | 16 | 1 | 6.3% |
21.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 15.4 %pts |
| Touring-2000 Blue, 60 (BK-T44U-60) | 14 | 14 | 0 | 0.0% |
-24.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 24.4 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 44 (BK-T18U-44) | 35 | 35 | 0 | 0.0% |
-13.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 13.9 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 50 (BK-T18U-50) | 9 | 10 | -1 | -10.0% |
-2.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 7.3 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 54 (BK-T18U-54) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
2.8% |
Exponential | Better by 2.8 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 58 (BK-T18U-58) | 24 | 21 | 3 | 14.3% |
25.1% |
Regression | Better by 10.8 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 62 (BK-T18U-62) | 7 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% |
29.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 12.9 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 44 (BK-T18Y-44) | 725 | 653 | 72 | 11.0% |
-0.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 10.7 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T18Y-50) | 294 | 302 | -8 | -2.6% |
-35.6% |
Regression | Better by 32.9 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T18Y-54) | 691 | 626 | 65 | 10.4% |
20.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 9.9 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 58 (BK-T18Y-58) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
-34.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 34.1 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 62 (BK-T18Y-62) | 234 | 231 | 3 | 1.3% |
-9.9% |
Regression | Better by 8.6 %pts |
| Touring-Panniers, Large (PA-T100) | 102 | 109 | -7 | -6.4% |
-44.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 38.3 %pts |
| Water Bottle - 30 oz. (WB-H098) | 27 | 26 | 1 | 3.8% |
-24.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 20.6 %pts |
| Women's Mountain Shorts, L (SH-W890-L) | 21 | 19 | 2 | 10.5% |
18.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 8.2 %pts |
| Women's Mountain Shorts, M (SH-W890-M) | 13 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% |
-17.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 9.4 %pts |
| Women's Mountain Shorts, S (SH-W890-S) | 6 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% |
47.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 27.7 %pts |
| Women's Tights, L (TG-W091-L) | 205 | 117 | 88 | 75.2% |
63.7% |
Exponential | Worse by 11.5 %pts |
| Women's Tights, M (TG-W091-M) | 453 | 425 | 28 | 6.6% |
-2.2% |
Regression | Worse by 4.4 %pts |
| Women's Tights, S (TG-W091-S) | 15 | 16 | -1 | -6.3% |
2.1% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 4.1 %pts |
| Total | 20,194 | 18,682 | 1,512 | 8.1% | -0.6% | Better in 212 out of 299 items (70.9%) |
| Weighted Average % Error | 15.5% | Weighted Average % Error (Alt) | 13.8% | Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) | 12.9% | Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) | 9.9 |
| Weighted Average % Error-Statistics | 21.0% | Weighted Average % Error (Alt)-Statistics | 6.3% | Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)-Statistics | 23.3% | Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)-Statistics | 13.1 |
| Forecast | Actual | Variance | Percent Error | Stats Pct Error | Best Algorithm | Human vs. Statistics | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All-Purpose Bike Stand (ST-1401) | 203 | 207 | -4 | -1.9% |
28.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 26.1 %pts |
| AWC Logo Cap (CA-1098) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
38.4% |
Regression | Better by 38.4 %pts |
| Bike Wash - Dissolver (CL-9009) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
7.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 7.5 %pts |
| Cable Lock (LO-C100) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
3.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 3.6 %pts |
| Chain (CH-0234) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
-32.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 32.3 %pts |
| Classic Vest, L (VE-C304-L) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
97.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 97.2 %pts |
| Classic Vest, M (VE-C304-M) | 12 | 13 | -1 | -7.7% |
-25.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 17.3 %pts |
| Classic Vest, S (VE-C304-S) | 6 | 7 | -1 | -14.3% |
-8.8% |
Exponential | Worse by 5.4 %pts |
| Fender Set - Mountain (FE-6654) | 7 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% |
50.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 10.0 %pts |
| Front Brakes (FB-9873) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
52.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 52.8 %pts |
| Front Derailleur (FD-2342) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Full-Finger Gloves, L (GL-F110-L) | 196 | 213 | -17 | -8.0% |
-38.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 30.0 %pts |
| Full-Finger Gloves, M (GL-F110-M) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-15.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 15.4 %pts |
| Full-Finger Gloves, S (GL-F110-S) | 10 | 11 | -1 | -9.1% |
-29.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 20.6 %pts |
| Half-Finger Gloves, L (GL-H102-L) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
61.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 61.0 %pts |
| Half-Finger Gloves, M (GL-H102-M) | 253 | 225 | 28 | 12.4% |
4.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 7.7 %pts |
| Half-Finger Gloves, S (GL-H102-S) | 313 | 344 | -31 | -9.0% |
-15.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 6.2 %pts |
| Headlights - Dual-Beam (LT-H902) | 54 | 52 | 2 | 3.8% |
16.8% |
Exponential | Better by 12.9 %pts |
| Headlights - Weatherproof (LT-H903) | 10 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% |
19.3% |
Regression | Worse by 5.7 %pts |
| Hitch Rack - 4-Bike (RA-H123) | 5 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% |
1.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 23.4 %pts |
| HL Bottom Bracket (BB-9108) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
8.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 8.0 %pts |
| HL Crankset (CS-9183) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
4.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 4.1 %pts |
| HL Fork (FK-9939) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
3.4% |
Regression | Better by 3.4 %pts |
| HL Headset (HS-3479) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
12.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 12.4 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M94B-38) | 6 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% |
24.1% |
Regression | Better by 4.1 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M94B-42) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
21.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 21.1 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M94B-44) | 11 | 13 | -2 | -15.4% |
-11.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 4.0 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 46 (FR-M94B-46) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
24.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 24.0 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M94B-48) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
6.1% |
Exponential | Better by 6.1 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 38 (FR-M94S-38) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M94S-42) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | The same |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 46 (FR-M94S-46) | 9 | 11 | -2 | -18.2% |
-9.8% |
Regression | Worse by 8.3 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M94S-52) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
15.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 15.7 %pts |
| HL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M928) | 16 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% |
12.0% |
Exponential | Worse by 11.1 %pts |
| HL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M918) | 20 | 19 | 1 | 5.3% |
29.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 23.8 %pts |
| HL Mountain Pedal (PD-M562) | 11 | 7 | 4 | 57.1% |
67.4% |
Exponential | Better by 10.2 %pts |
| HL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M928) | 13 | 15 | -2 | -13.3% |
-9.0% |
Regression | Worse by 4.4 %pts |
| HL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M940) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-46.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 46.9 %pts |
| HL Mountain Tire (TI-M823) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
5.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 5.3 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R92B-44) | 180 | 110 | 70 | 63.6% |
70.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 6.3 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R92B-48) | 133 | 134 | -1 | -0.7% |
-17.9% |
Regression | Better by 17.1 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R92B-52) | 70 | 67 | 3 | 4.5% |
-20.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 15.6 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R92B-58) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
8.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 8.8 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R92B-62) | 14 | 14 | 0 | 0.0% |
-5.9% |
Exponential | Better by 5.9 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R92R-44) | 67 | 53 | 14 | 26.4% |
-7.6% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 18.9 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R92R-48) | 10 | 11 | -1 | -9.1% |
-34.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 25.5 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R92R-52) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
23.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 23.9 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 56 (FR-R92R-56) | 5 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% |
35.5% |
Regression | Better by 10.5 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R92R-58) | 15 | 15 | 0 | 0.0% |
-18.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 18.2 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R92R-62) | 120 | 90 | 30 | 33.3% |
20.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 12.8 %pts |
| HL Road Front Wheel (FW-R820) | 5 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% |
30.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 5.3 %pts |
| HL Road Handlebars (HB-R956) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
36.1% |
Regression | Better by 36.1 %pts |
| HL Road Pedal (PD-R853) | 13 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% |
28.7% |
Regression | Worse by 15.7 %pts |
| HL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R820) | 10 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% |
-5.0% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 6.1 %pts |
| HL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R995) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| HL Road Tire (TI-R982) | 13 | 15 | -2 | -13.3% |
-4.9% |
Exponential | Worse by 8.4 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Blue, 46 (FR-T98U-46) | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0.0% |
-18.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 18.1 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T98U-50) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
-6.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 6.7 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Blue, 60 (FR-T98U-60) | 296 | 274 | 22 | 8.0% |
14.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 6.7 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 46 (FR-T98Y-46) | 49 | 49 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.7% |
Regression | Better by 0.7 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T98Y-50) | 13 | 14 | -1 | -7.1% |
0.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 6.6 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T98Y-54) | 228 | 218 | 10 | 4.6% |
-3.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 0.7 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 60 (FR-T98Y-60) | 11 | 12 | -1 | -8.3% |
-12.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 4.0 %pts |
| HL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T924) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
9.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 9.9 %pts |
| Hydration Pack - 70 oz. (HY-1023-70) | 12 | 14 | -2 | -14.3% |
-6.5% |
Exponential | Worse by 7.8 %pts |
| LL Bottom Bracket (BB-7421) | 12 | 14 | -2 | -14.3% |
11.4% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 2.9 %pts |
| LL Crankset (CS-4759) | 15 | 14 | 1 | 7.1% |
-29.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 21.9 %pts |
| LL Fork (FK-1639) | 13 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% |
11.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 33.2 %pts |
| LL Headset (HS-0296) | 16 | 17 | -1 | -5.9% |
23.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 17.3 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M21B-40) | 15 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% |
-26.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 1.0 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M21B-42) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-33.3% |
Regression | Better by 33.3 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M21B-44) | 24 | 20 | 4 | 20.0% |
9.6% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 10.4 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M21B-48) | 21 | 19 | 2 | 10.5% |
-33.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 23.1 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 52 (FR-M21B-52) | 256 | 278 | -22 | -7.9% |
-10.0% |
Exponential | Better by 2.1 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 40 (FR-M21S-40) | 178 | 143 | 35 | 24.5% |
29.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 5.4 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M21S-42) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M21S-44) | 189 | 194 | -5 | -2.6% |
16.7% |
Regression | Better by 14.1 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M21S-48) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-57.9% |
Exponential | Better by 57.9 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 52 (FR-M21S-52) | 38 | 28 | 10 | 35.7% |
8.0% |
Regression | Worse by 27.8 %pts |
| LL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M423) | 10 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% |
-12.5% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 30.4 %pts |
| LL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M243) | 19 | 16 | 3 | 18.8% |
31.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 12.3 %pts |
| LL Mountain Pedal (PD-M282) | 10 | 11 | -1 | -9.1% |
5.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 3.9 %pts |
| LL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M423) | 11 | 13 | -2 | -15.4% |
33.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 18.2 %pts |
| LL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M236) | 20 | 21 | -1 | -4.8% |
-5.6% |
Exponential | Better by 0.8 %pts |
| LL Mountain Tire (TI-M267) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
6.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 6.5 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R38B-44) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
205.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 205.5 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R38B-48) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
13.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 13.3 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R38B-52) | 11 | 12 | -1 | -8.3% |
-25.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 17.5 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R38B-58) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-21.0% |
Exponential | Better by 21.0 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 60 (FR-R38B-60) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
-6.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 6.7 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R38B-62) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
62.7% |
Regression | Better by 62.7 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R38R-44) | 268 | 171 | 97 | 56.7% |
35.5% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 21.2 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R38R-48) | 17 | 19 | -2 | -10.5% |
-37.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 27.3 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R38R-52) | 14 | 15 | -1 | -6.7% |
10.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 3.5 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R38R-58) | 78 | 82 | -4 | -4.9% |
-35.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 30.3 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R38R-60) | 167 | 176 | -9 | -5.1% |
-16.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 11.8 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R38R-62) | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% |
10.1% |
Exponential | Better by 10.1 %pts |
| LL Road Front Wheel (FW-R623) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
-2.2% |
Exponential | Better by 2.2 %pts |
| LL Road Handlebars (HB-R504) | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0.0% |
-2.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 2.4 %pts |
| LL Road Pedal (PD-R347) | 20 | 22 | -2 | -9.1% |
-33.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 24.4 %pts |
| LL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R623) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
23.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 23.9 %pts |
| LL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R581) | 131 | 124 | 7 | 5.6% |
-18.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 12.8 %pts |
| LL Road Tire (TI-R092) | 7 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% |
15.0% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 1.7 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 44 (FR-T67U-44) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
-27.4% |
Exponential | Better by 27.4 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T67U-50) | 15 | 14 | 1 | 7.1% |
-12.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 4.9 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T67U-54) | 11 | 12 | -1 | -8.3% |
-21.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 12.8 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 58 (FR-T67U-58) | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% |
17.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 17.5 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 62 (FR-T67U-62) | 17 | 20 | -3 | -15.0% |
-11.7% |
Exponential | Worse by 3.3 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 44 (FR-T67Y-44) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T67Y-50) | 8 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% |
-7.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 6.7 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T67Y-54) | 275 | 348 | -73 | -21.0% |
-13.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 7.7 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 58 (FR-T67Y-58) | 8 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% |
3.4% |
Regression | Worse by 10.9 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 62 (FR-T67Y-62) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-6.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 6.8 %pts |
| LL Touring Handlebars (HB-T721) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
21.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 21.4 %pts |
| LL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T312) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
31.5% |
Exponential | Better by 31.5 %pts |
| Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, M (LJ-0192-M) | 61 | 68 | -7 | -10.3% |
-21.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 11.6 %pts |
| Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, S (LJ-0192-S) | 13 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% |
56.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 26.6 %pts |
| Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, XL (LJ-0192-X) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
-15.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 15.7 %pts |
| Men's Bib-Shorts, L (SB-M891-L) | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% |
13.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 13.9 %pts |
| Men's Bib-Shorts, M (SB-M891-M) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
-13.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 13.5 %pts |
| Men's Bib-Shorts, S (SB-M891-S) | 210 | 219 | -9 | -4.1% |
-34.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 30.4 %pts |
| Men's Sports Shorts, L (SH-M897-L) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Men's Sports Shorts, M (SH-M897-M) | 12 | 14 | -2 | -14.3% |
-24.4% |
Regression | Better by 10.1 %pts |
| Men's Sports Shorts, S (SH-M897-S) | 63 | 55 | 8 | 14.5% |
4.8% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 9.8 %pts |
| Men's Sports Shorts, XL (SH-M897-X) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
-36.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 36.2 %pts |
| Minipump (PU-0452) | 417 | 489 | -72 | -14.7% |
-11.9% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 2.8 %pts |
| ML Bottom Bracket (BB-8107) | 207 | 194 | 13 | 6.7% |
-21.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 15.0 %pts |
| ML Crankset (CS-6583) | 12 | 7 | 5 | 71.4% |
62.3% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 9.1 %pts |
| ML Fork (FK-5136) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| ML Headset (HS-2451) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
30.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 30.1 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M63B-38) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
77.9% |
Regression | Better by 77.9 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M63B-40) | 11 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% |
17.2% |
Exponential | Better by 7.2 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M63B-44) | 16 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% |
36.0% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 9.5 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M63B-48) | 95 | 96 | -1 | -1.0% |
-5.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 4.5 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 38 (FR-M63S-38) | 19 | 20 | -1 | -5.0% |
-12.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 7.9 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 40 (FR-M63S-40) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
-15.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 15.9 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 42 (FR-M63S-42) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
24.8% |
Regression | Better by 24.8 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 46 (FR-M63S-46) | 41 | 34 | 7 | 20.6% |
15.3% |
Regression | Worse by 5.3 %pts |
| ML Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M762) | 16 | 15 | 1 | 6.7% |
-9.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 2.6 %pts |
| ML Mountain Handlebars (HB-M763) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
-18.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 18.8 %pts |
| ML Mountain Pedal (PD-M340) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
-24.3% |
Exponential | Better by 24.3 %pts |
| ML Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M762) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-19.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 19.4 %pts |
| ML Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M798) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
-2.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 2.4 %pts |
| ML Mountain Tire (TI-M602) | 352 | 436 | -84 | -19.3% |
-13.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 5.8 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R72R-44) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
-28.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 28.9 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R72R-48) | 14 | 14 | 0 | 0.0% |
17.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 17.2 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R72R-52) | 176 | 203 | -27 | -13.3% |
-8.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 5.3 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R72R-58) | 20 | 18 | 2 | 11.1% |
-6.8% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 4.4 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R72R-60) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
1.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 1.9 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 38 (FR-R72Y-38) | 10 | 11 | -1 | -9.1% |
-14.0% |
Regression | Better by 4.9 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 40 (FR-R72Y-40) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-65.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 65.0 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 42 (FR-R72Y-42) | 15 | 16 | -1 | -6.3% |
7.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 0.8 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 44 (FR-R72Y-44) | 30 | 32 | -2 | -6.3% |
-12.7% |
Regression | Better by 6.5 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 48 (FR-R72Y-48) | 16 | 18 | -2 | -11.1% |
-27.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 16.2 %pts |
| ML Road Front Wheel (FW-R762) | 116 | 144 | -28 | -19.4% |
-11.4% |
Regression | Worse by 8.0 %pts |
| ML Road Handlebars (HB-R720) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| ML Road Pedal (PD-R563) | 53 | 44 | 9 | 20.5% |
51.6% |
Exponential | Better by 31.2 %pts |
| ML Road Rear Wheel (RW-R762) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| ML Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R908) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-4.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 4.8 %pts |
| ML Road Tire (TI-R628) | 28 | 28 | 0 | 0.0% |
-13.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 13.2 %pts |
| ML Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T762) | 17 | 20 | -3 | -15.0% |
-8.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 6.6 %pts |
| Mountain Bike Socks, L (SO-B909-L) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
-13.5% |
Regression | Better by 13.5 %pts |
| Mountain Bike Socks, M (SO-B909-M) | 11 | 12 | -1 | -8.3% |
34.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 25.7 %pts |
| Mountain Bottle Cage (BC-M005) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-3.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 3.7 %pts |
| Mountain Pump (PU-M044) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-22.6% |
Regression | Better by 22.6 %pts |
| Mountain Tire Tube (TT-M928) | 19 | 13 | 6 | 46.2% |
98.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 51.9 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Black, 38 (BK-M82B-38) | 11 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% |
32.6% |
Exponential | Better by 10.4 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Black, 42 (BK-M82B-42) | 18 | 18 | 0 | 0.0% |
12.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 12.5 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Black, 44 (BK-M82B-44) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
58.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 58.0 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Black, 48 (BK-M82B-48) | 29 | 28 | 1 | 3.6% |
-15.6% |
Exponential | Better by 12.1 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Silver, 38 (BK-M82S-38) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% |
59.1% |
Regression | Better by 9.1 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Silver, 42 (BK-M82S-42) | 20 | 20 | 0 | 0.0% |
6.3% |
Exponential | Better by 6.3 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Silver, 44 (BK-M82S-44) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Mountain-100 Silver, 48 (BK-M82S-48) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
9.4% |
Regression | Better by 9.4 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Black, 38 (BK-M68B-38) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-39.0% |
Exponential | Better by 39.0 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Black, 42 (BK-M68B-42) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
2.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 2.2 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Black, 46 (BK-M68B-46) | 10 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% |
23.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 12.6 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Silver, 38 (BK-M68S-38) | 97 | 105 | -8 | -7.6% |
-21.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 13.6 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Silver, 42 (BK-M68S-42) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
2.9% |
Exponential | Better by 2.9 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Silver, 46 (BK-M68S-46) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Mountain-300 Black, 38 (BK-M47B-38) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Mountain-300 Black, 40 (BK-M47B-40) | 51 | 49 | 2 | 4.1% |
25.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 21.5 %pts |
| Mountain-300 Black, 44 (BK-M47B-44) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
1.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 1.5 %pts |
| Mountain-300 Black, 48 (BK-M47B-48) | 296 | 302 | -6 | -2.0% |
-0.8% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 1.1 %pts |
| Mountain-400-W Silver, 38 (BK-M38S-38) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
44.4% |
Exponential | Better by 44.4 %pts |
| Mountain-400-W Silver, 40 (BK-M38S-40) | 381 | 327 | 54 | 16.5% |
16.3% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 0.3 %pts |
| Mountain-400-W Silver, 42 (BK-M38S-42) | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% |
25.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 25.0 %pts |
| Mountain-400-W Silver, 46 (BK-M38S-46) | 15 | 14 | 1 | 7.1% |
-43.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 36.8 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 40 (BK-M18B-40) | 41 | 37 | 4 | 10.8% |
-3.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 7.3 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 42 (BK-M18B-42) | 20 | 17 | 3 | 17.6% |
13.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 4.2 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 44 (BK-M18B-44) | 243 | 248 | -5 | -2.0% |
22.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 20.5 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 48 (BK-M18B-48) | 48 | 48 | 0 | 0.0% |
13.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 13.9 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 52 (BK-M18B-52) | 16 | 14 | 2 | 14.3% |
19.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 5.0 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 40 (BK-M18S-40) | 5 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% |
14.1% |
Regression | Worse by 10.9 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 42 (BK-M18S-42) | 79 | 70 | 9 | 12.9% |
8.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 4.2 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 44 (BK-M18S-44) | 188 | 209 | -21 | -10.0% |
-16.1% |
Regression | Better by 6.0 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 48 (BK-M18S-48) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
7.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 7.1 %pts |
| Patch Kit/8 Patches (PK-7098) | 170 | 194 | -24 | -12.4% |
-29.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 17.3 %pts |
| Racing Socks, L (SO-R809-L) | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% |
1.4% |
Regression | Better by 1.4 %pts |
| Racing Socks, M (SO-R809-M) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
12.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 12.5 %pts |
| Rear Brakes (RB-9231) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-2.6% |
Regression | Better by 2.6 %pts |
| Rear Derailleur (RD-2308) | 121 | 117 | 4 | 3.4% |
-6.1% |
Exponential | Better by 2.7 %pts |
| Road Bottle Cage (BC-R205) | 8 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% |
41.4% |
Exponential | Better by 8.0 %pts |
| Road Tire Tube (TT-R982) | 13 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% |
-6.4% |
Regression | Worse by 2.0 %pts |
| Road-150 Red, 44 (BK-R93R-44) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Road-150 Red, 48 (BK-R93R-48) | 16 | 15 | 1 | 6.7% |
4.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 1.8 %pts |
| Road-150 Red, 52 (BK-R93R-52) | 13 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% |
0.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 7.4 %pts |
| Road-150 Red, 56 (BK-R93R-56) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Road-150 Red, 62 (BK-R93R-62) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
7.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 7.5 %pts |
| Road-250 Black, 44 (BK-R89B-44) | 116 | 121 | -5 | -4.1% |
21.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 17.1 %pts |
| Road-250 Black, 48 (BK-R89B-48) | 154 | 144 | 10 | 6.9% |
39.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 32.3 %pts |
| Road-250 Black, 52 (BK-R89B-52) | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% |
43.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 43.7 %pts |
| Road-250 Black, 58 (BK-R89B-58) | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% |
69.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 69.4 %pts |
| Road-250 Red, 44 (BK-R89R-44) | 38 | 38 | 0 | 0.0% |
-12.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 12.3 %pts |
| Road-250 Red, 48 (BK-R89R-48) | 296 | 281 | 15 | 5.3% |
12.6% |
Exponential | Better by 7.3 %pts |
| Road-250 Red, 52 (BK-R89R-52) | 15 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% |
20.1% |
Exponential | Worse by 16.3 %pts |
| Road-250 Red, 58 (BK-R89R-58) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Road-350-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R79Y-40) | 14 | 13 | 1 | 7.7% |
-13.5% |
Exponential | Better by 5.8 %pts |
| Road-350-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R79Y-42) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
74.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 74.4 %pts |
| Road-350-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R79Y-44) | 14 | 14 | 0 | 0.0% |
-23.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 23.0 %pts |
| Road-350-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R79Y-48) | 20 | 16 | 4 | 25.0% |
39.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 14.5 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 44 (BK-R68R-44) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
-19.6% |
Regression | Better by 19.6 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 48 (BK-R68R-48) | 19 | 19 | 0 | 0.0% |
4.6% |
Exponential | Better by 4.6 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 52 (BK-R68R-52) | 9 | 10 | -1 | -10.0% |
-31.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 21.6 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 58 (BK-R68R-58) | 130 | 149 | -19 | -12.8% |
-32.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 19.6 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 60 (BK-R68R-60) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
50.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 50.0 %pts |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 38 (BK-R64Y-38) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
-12.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 12.5 %pts |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R64Y-40) | 6 | 7 | -1 | -14.3% |
-0.8% |
Regression | Worse by 13.5 %pts |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R64Y-42) | 17 | 18 | -1 | -5.6% |
-32.9% |
Regression | Better by 27.3 %pts |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R64Y-44) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
37.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 37.5 %pts |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R64Y-48) | 16 | 15 | 1 | 6.7% |
-1.4% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 5.2 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 44 (BK-R50B-44) | 8 | 9 | -1 | -11.1% |
-22.4% |
Regression | Better by 11.3 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 48 (BK-R50B-48) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
9.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 9.0 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 52 (BK-R50B-52) | 12 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% |
34.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 14.9 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 58 (BK-R50B-58) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
-4.9% |
Exponential | Better by 4.9 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 60 (BK-R50B-60) | 4 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
99.4% |
Exponential | Better by 66.1 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 62 (BK-R50B-62) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
171.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 171.1 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 48 (BK-R50R-48) | 16 | 17 | -1 | -5.9% |
-63.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 58.1 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 52 (BK-R50R-52) | 128 | 107 | 21 | 19.6% |
11.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 7.7 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 58 (BK-R50R-58) | 11 | 7 | 4 | 57.1% |
27.1% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 30.1 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 60 (BK-R50R-60) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-30.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 30.0 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 62 (BK-R50R-62) | 366 | 353 | 13 | 3.7% |
-3.9% |
Regression | Better by 0.2 %pts |
| Road-750 Black, 44 (BK-R19B-44) | 20 | 15 | 5 | 33.3% |
1.5% |
Regression | Worse by 31.9 %pts |
| Road-750 Black, 48 (BK-R19B-48) | 9 | 10 | -1 | -10.0% |
-49.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 39.9 %pts |
| Road-750 Black, 52 (BK-R19B-52) | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0.0% |
-16.9% |
Exponential | Better by 16.9 %pts |
| Road-750 Black, 58 (BK-R19B-58) | 4 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
29.4% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 4.0 %pts |
| Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, L (SJ-0194-L) | 17 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% |
-6.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 15.5 %pts |
| Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, M (SJ-0194-M) | 11 | 12 | -1 | -8.3% |
17.1% |
Regression | Better by 8.8 %pts |
| Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, S (SJ-0194-S) | 205 | 117 | 88 | 75.2% |
18.4% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 56.8 %pts |
| Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, XL (SJ-0194-X) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-60.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 60.4 %pts |
| Sport-100 Helmet, Black (HL-U509) | 10 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% |
18.7% |
Exponential | Better by 7.6 %pts |
| Sport-100 Helmet, Blue (HL-U509-B) | 10 | 11 | -1 | -9.1% |
-4.6% |
Regression | Worse by 4.5 %pts |
| Sport-100 Helmet, Red (HL-U509-R) | 13 | 15 | -2 | -13.3% |
-24.5% |
Exponential | Better by 11.2 %pts |
| Taillights - Battery-Powered (LT-T990) | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% |
6.3% |
Exponential | Better by 6.3 %pts |
| Touring Front Wheel (FW-T905) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
9.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 9.3 %pts |
| Touring Pedal (PD-T852) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Touring Rear Wheel (RW-T905) | 187 | 159 | 28 | 17.6% |
-12.7% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 4.9 %pts |
| Touring Tire (TI-T723) | 18 | 19 | -1 | -5.3% |
0.6% |
Regression | Worse by 4.6 %pts |
| Touring Tire Tube (TT-T092) | 9 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% |
154.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 104.7 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Blue, 46 (BK-T79U-46) | 14 | 9 | 5 | 55.6% |
92.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 36.5 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Blue, 50 (BK-T79U-50) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
56.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 56.2 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Blue, 54 (BK-T79U-54) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
4.8% |
Regression | Better by 4.8 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Blue, 60 (BK-T79U-60) | 95 | 52 | 43 | 82.7% |
96.9% |
Exponential | Better by 14.2 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T79Y-50) | 10 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% |
65.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 23.1 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T79Y-54) | 153 | 164 | -11 | -6.7% |
-12.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 6.2 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Yellow, 60 (BK-T79Y-60) | 16 | 17 | -1 | -5.9% |
-5.8% |
Regression | Worse by 0.0 %pts |
| Touring-2000 Blue, 46 (BK-T44U-46) | 10 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% |
31.0% |
Exponential | Worse by 11.8 %pts |
| Touring-2000 Blue, 50 (BK-T44U-50) | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% |
-17.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 17.6 %pts |
| Touring-2000 Blue, 54 (BK-T44U-54) | 11 | 12 | -1 | -8.3% |
24.7% |
Regression | Better by 16.3 %pts |
| Touring-2000 Blue, 60 (BK-T44U-60) | 7 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% |
73.9% |
Exponential | Better by 33.9 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 44 (BK-T18U-44) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
-26.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 26.8 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 50 (BK-T18U-50) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
-11.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 11.3 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 54 (BK-T18U-54) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 58 (BK-T18U-58) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
4.7% |
Exponential | Better by 4.7 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 62 (BK-T18U-62) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
3.1% |
Regression | Better by 3.1 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 44 (BK-T18Y-44) | 12 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% |
14.4% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 18.9 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T18Y-50) | 21 | 15 | 6 | 40.0% |
21.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 18.4 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T18Y-54) | 196 | 156 | 40 | 25.6% |
57.6% |
Exponential | Better by 32.0 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 58 (BK-T18Y-58) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 62 (BK-T18Y-62) | 113 | 101 | 12 | 11.9% |
54.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 42.4 %pts |
| Touring-Panniers, Large (PA-T100) | 279 | 270 | 9 | 3.3% |
-12.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 8.7 %pts |
| Water Bottle - 30 oz. (WB-H098) | 18 | 17 | 1 | 5.9% |
-33.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 27.1 %pts |
| Women's Mountain Shorts, L (SH-W890-L) | 13 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% |
-5.4% |
Exponential | Worse by 12.8 %pts |
| Women's Mountain Shorts, M (SH-W890-M) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
37.8% |
Regression | Better by 37.8 %pts |
| Women's Mountain Shorts, S (SH-W890-S) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
-13.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 13.6 %pts |
| Women's Tights, L (TG-W091-L) | 122 | 105 | 17 | 16.2% |
45.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 29.0 %pts |
| Women's Tights, M (TG-W091-M) | 213 | 126 | 87 | 69.0% |
75.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 6.2 %pts |
| Total | 11,980 | 11,571 | 409 | 3.5% | 1.3% | Better in 215 out of 299 items (71.9%) |
| Weighted Average % Error | 13.1% | Weighted Average % Error (Alt) | 12.1% | Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) | 10.1% | Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) | 5.3 |
| Weighted Average % Error-Statistics | 19.8% | Weighted Average % Error (Alt)-Statistics | 3.1% | Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)-Statistics | 24.1% | Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)-Statistics | 7.7 |
| Forecast | Actual | Variance | Percent Error | Stats Pct Error | Best Algorithm | Human vs. Statistics | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All-Purpose Bike Stand (ST-1401) | 204 | 261 | -57 | -21.8% |
-21.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 0.5 %pts |
| AWC Logo Cap (CA-1098) | 427 | 251 | 176 | 70.1% |
87.7% |
Regression | Better by 17.6 %pts |
| Bike Wash - Dissolver (CL-9009) | 19 | 18 | 1 | 5.6% |
16.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 11.4 %pts |
| Cable Lock (LO-C100) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
8.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 8.3 %pts |
| Chain (CH-0234) | 29 | 30 | -1 | -3.3% |
25.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 22.3 %pts |
| Classic Vest, L (VE-C304-L) | 8 | 9 | -1 | -11.1% |
-23.2% |
Exponential | Better by 12.1 %pts |
| Classic Vest, M (VE-C304-M) | 21 | 22 | -1 | -4.5% |
-17.4% |
Regression | Better by 12.8 %pts |
| Classic Vest, S (VE-C304-S) | 12 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% |
62.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 28.8 %pts |
| Fender Set - Mountain (FE-6654) | 8 | 9 | -1 | -11.1% |
-15.2% |
Exponential | Better by 4.0 %pts |
| Front Brakes (FB-9873) | 23 | 22 | 1 | 4.5% |
-10.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 6.0 %pts |
| Front Derailleur (FD-2342) | 20 | 15 | 5 | 33.3% |
17.2% |
Exponential | Worse by 16.1 %pts |
| Full-Finger Gloves, L (GL-F110-L) | 288 | 154 | 134 | 87.0% |
22.7% |
Regression | Worse by 64.3 %pts |
| Full-Finger Gloves, M (GL-F110-M) | 15 | 14 | 1 | 7.1% |
-4.6% |
Exponential | Worse by 2.6 %pts |
| Full-Finger Gloves, S (GL-F110-S) | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% |
5.9% |
Exponential | Better by 5.9 %pts |
| Half-Finger Gloves, L (GL-H102-L) | 15 | 16 | -1 | -6.3% |
-0.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 6.0 %pts |
| Half-Finger Gloves, M (GL-H102-M) | 315 | 178 | 137 | 77.0% |
63.3% |
Regression | Worse by 13.7 %pts |
| Half-Finger Gloves, S (GL-H102-S) | 255 | 201 | 54 | 26.9% |
-16.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 10.4 %pts |
| Headlights - Dual-Beam (LT-H902) | 190 | 213 | -23 | -10.8% |
51.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 40.6 %pts |
| Headlights - Weatherproof (LT-H903) | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% |
8.6% |
Regression | Better by 8.6 %pts |
| Hitch Rack - 4-Bike (RA-H123) | 23 | 19 | 4 | 21.1% |
21.5% |
Exponential | Better by 0.4 %pts |
| HL Bottom Bracket (BB-9108) | 17 | 18 | -1 | -5.6% |
-5.3% |
Regression | Worse by 0.3 %pts |
| HL Crankset (CS-9183) | 11 | 12 | -1 | -8.3% |
14.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 5.7 %pts |
| HL Fork (FK-9939) | 22 | 19 | 3 | 15.8% |
11.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 4.0 %pts |
| HL Headset (HS-3479) | 36 | 39 | -3 | -7.7% |
4.5% |
Regression | Worse by 3.2 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M94B-38) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-33.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 33.3 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M94B-42) | 22 | 22 | 0 | 0.0% |
36.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 36.8 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M94B-44) | 13 | 14 | -1 | -7.1% |
12.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 5.2 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 46 (FR-M94B-46) | 17 | 15 | 2 | 13.3% |
0.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 12.5 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M94B-48) | 17 | 18 | -1 | -5.6% |
-36.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 31.2 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 38 (FR-M94S-38) | 21 | 20 | 1 | 5.0% |
14.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 9.1 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M94S-42) | 18 | 18 | 0 | 0.0% |
14.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 14.9 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M94S-44) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
33.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 33.6 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 46 (FR-M94S-46) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
19.2% |
Exponential | Better by 19.2 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M94S-52) | 6 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% |
20.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | The same |
| HL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M928) | 16 | 18 | -2 | -11.1% |
-35.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 24.8 %pts |
| HL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M918) | 30 | 26 | 4 | 15.4% |
67.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 52.1 %pts |
| HL Mountain Pedal (PD-M562) | 16 | 16 | 0 | 0.0% |
-29.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 29.3 %pts |
| HL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M928) | 33 | 33 | 0 | 0.0% |
25.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 25.6 %pts |
| HL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M940) | 13 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% |
9.9% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 20.1 %pts |
| HL Mountain Tire (TI-M823) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
11.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 11.7 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R92B-44) | 270 | 248 | 22 | 8.9% |
10.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 1.6 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R92B-48) | 336 | 357 | -21 | -5.9% |
-7.1% |
Regression | Better by 1.2 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R92B-52) | 461 | 518 | -57 | -11.0% |
-6.4% |
Exponential | Worse by 4.6 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R92B-58) | 14 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% |
16.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 0.7 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R92B-62) | 18 | 15 | 3 | 20.0% |
35.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 15.6 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R92R-44) | 256 | 238 | 18 | 7.6% |
-48.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 41.0 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R92R-48) | 23 | 21 | 2 | 9.5% |
23.6% |
Regression | Better by 14.1 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R92R-52) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
-18.2% |
Exponential | Better by 18.2 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 56 (FR-R92R-56) | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% |
-21.4% |
Exponential | Better by 21.4 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R92R-58) | 24 | 25 | -1 | -4.0% |
-11.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 7.3 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R92R-62) | 231 | 191 | 40 | 20.9% |
20.4% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 0.5 %pts |
| HL Road Front Wheel (FW-R820) | 19 | 19 | 0 | 0.0% |
17.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 17.2 %pts |
| HL Road Handlebars (HB-R956) | 24 | 20 | 4 | 20.0% |
-0.0% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 20.0 %pts |
| HL Road Pedal (PD-R853) | 18 | 19 | -1 | -5.3% |
-23.9% |
Regression | Better by 18.6 %pts |
| HL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R820) | 21 | 18 | 3 | 16.7% |
-0.9% |
Regression | Worse by 15.7 %pts |
| HL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R995) | 31 | 30 | 1 | 3.3% |
-4.0% |
Exponential | Better by 0.7 %pts |
| HL Road Tire (TI-R982) | 21 | 25 | -4 | -16.0% |
10.6% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 5.4 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Blue, 46 (FR-T98U-46) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| HL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T98U-50) | 23 | 25 | -2 | -8.0% |
13.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 5.6 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T98U-54) | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0.0% |
14.4% |
Regression | Better by 14.4 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Blue, 60 (FR-T98U-60) | 97 | 114 | -17 | -14.9% |
-14.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 0.0 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 46 (FR-T98Y-46) | 270 | 272 | -2 | -0.7% |
-13.0% |
Regression | Better by 12.3 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T98Y-50) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
12.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 12.0 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T98Y-54) | 312 | 336 | -24 | -7.1% |
-40.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 33.3 %pts |
| HL Touring Handlebars (HB-T928) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-0.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 0.4 %pts |
| HL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T924) | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% |
-9.4% |
Exponential | Better by 9.4 %pts |
| Hydration Pack - 70 oz. (HY-1023-70) | 37 | 35 | 2 | 5.7% |
99.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 93.4 %pts |
| LL Bottom Bracket (BB-7421) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
26.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 26.7 %pts |
| LL Crankset (CS-4759) | 11 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% |
136.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 114.2 %pts |
| LL Fork (FK-1639) | 13 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% |
6.9% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 37.6 %pts |
| LL Headset (HS-0296) | 17 | 17 | 0 | 0.0% |
-48.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 48.6 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M21B-40) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
-14.3% |
Exponential | Better by 14.3 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M21B-42) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-8.9% |
Regression | Better by 8.9 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M21B-44) | 30 | 26 | 4 | 15.4% |
116.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 101.5 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M21B-48) | 17 | 18 | -1 | -5.6% |
-53.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 47.7 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 52 (FR-M21B-52) | 160 | 139 | 21 | 15.1% |
86.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 70.9 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 40 (FR-M21S-40) | 103 | 120 | -17 | -14.2% |
-28.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 14.5 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M21S-44) | 373 | 344 | 29 | 8.4% |
1.8% |
Regression | Worse by 6.6 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M21S-48) | 16 | 16 | 0 | 0.0% |
-5.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 5.9 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 52 (FR-M21S-52) | 612 | 717 | -105 | -14.6% |
-48.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 34.3 %pts |
| LL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M423) | 39 | 37 | 2 | 5.4% |
5.3% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 0.2 %pts |
| LL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M243) | 13 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% |
99.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 90.9 %pts |
| LL Mountain Pedal (PD-M282) | 19 | 21 | -2 | -9.5% |
-24.1% |
Regression | Better by 14.6 %pts |
| LL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M423) | 14 | 14 | 0 | 0.0% |
6.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 6.1 %pts |
| LL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M236) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
2.6% |
Exponential | Better by 2.6 %pts |
| LL Mountain Tire (TI-M267) | 32 | 34 | -2 | -5.9% |
-16.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 10.1 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R38B-44) | 21 | 24 | -3 | -12.5% |
-21.3% |
Exponential | Better by 8.8 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R38B-48) | 28 | 27 | 1 | 3.7% |
1.7% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 2.0 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R38B-52) | 18 | 15 | 3 | 20.0% |
65.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 45.3 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R38B-58) | 12 | 13 | -1 | -7.7% |
-21.5% |
Regression | Better by 13.9 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 60 (FR-R38B-60) | 35 | 36 | -1 | -2.8% |
-28.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 25.7 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R38B-62) | 24 | 23 | 1 | 4.3% |
29.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 25.6 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R38R-44) | 223 | 212 | 11 | 5.2% |
-25.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 19.9 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R38R-48) | 18 | 17 | 1 | 5.9% |
16.5% |
Exponential | Better by 10.6 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R38R-52) | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% |
91.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 91.0 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R38R-58) | 239 | 199 | 40 | 20.1% |
15.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 5.1 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R38R-60) | 193 | 220 | -27 | -12.3% |
-6.3% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 6.0 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R38R-62) | 29 | 29 | 0 | 0.0% |
-15.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 15.0 %pts |
| LL Road Front Wheel (FW-R623) | 23 | 22 | 1 | 4.5% |
-1.5% |
Regression | Worse by 3.1 %pts |
| LL Road Handlebars (HB-R504) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
32.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 32.4 %pts |
| LL Road Pedal (PD-R347) | 14 | 15 | -1 | -6.7% |
-20.0% |
Regression | Better by 13.4 %pts |
| LL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R623) | 19 | 19 | 0 | 0.0% |
3.9% |
Regression | Better by 3.9 %pts |
| LL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R581) | 211 | 175 | 36 | 20.6% |
-6.6% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 14.0 %pts |
| LL Road Tire (TI-R092) | 12 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% |
6.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 26.4 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 44 (FR-T67U-44) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
3.2% |
Exponential | Better by 3.2 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T67U-50) | 36 | 29 | 7 | 24.1% |
19.7% |
Regression | Worse by 4.4 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 58 (FR-T67U-58) | 9 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% |
34.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 22.2 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 44 (FR-T67Y-44) | 20 | 22 | -2 | -9.1% |
29.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 20.8 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T67Y-50) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T67Y-54) | 102 | 84 | 18 | 21.4% |
25.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 3.9 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 58 (FR-T67Y-58) | 18 | 17 | 1 | 5.9% |
20.5% |
Exponential | Better by 14.6 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 62 (FR-T67Y-62) | 10 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% |
10.0% |
Regression | Worse by 1.1 %pts |
| LL Touring Handlebars (HB-T721) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
-7.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 7.4 %pts |
| LL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T312) | 10 | 11 | -1 | -9.1% |
-2.4% |
Regression | Worse by 6.7 %pts |
| Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, L (LJ-0192-L) | 20 | 19 | 1 | 5.3% |
15.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 10.0 %pts |
| Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, M (LJ-0192-M) | 178 | 161 | 17 | 10.6% |
-8.8% |
Exponential | Worse by 1.8 %pts |
| Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, S (LJ-0192-S) | 23 | 20 | 3 | 15.0% |
13.0% |
Exponential | Worse by 2.0 %pts |
| Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, XL (LJ-0192-X) | 24 | 26 | -2 | -7.7% |
-16.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 9.1 %pts |
| Men's Bib-Shorts, L (SB-M891-L) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
-13.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 13.1 %pts |
| Men's Bib-Shorts, M (SB-M891-M) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
29.2% |
Regression | Better by 29.2 %pts |
| Men's Bib-Shorts, S (SB-M891-S) | 291 | 238 | 53 | 22.3% |
30.5% |
Exponential | Better by 8.2 %pts |
| Men's Sports Shorts, L (SH-M897-L) | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% |
8.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 8.3 %pts |
| Men's Sports Shorts, M (SH-M897-M) | 31 | 30 | 1 | 3.3% |
7.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 4.6 %pts |
| Men's Sports Shorts, S (SH-M897-S) | 323 | 302 | 21 | 7.0% |
21.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 14.1 %pts |
| Men's Sports Shorts, XL (SH-M897-X) | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% |
-16.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 16.3 %pts |
| Minipump (PU-0452) | 173 | 139 | 34 | 24.5% |
30.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 5.9 %pts |
| ML Bottom Bracket (BB-8107) | 41 | 34 | 7 | 20.6% |
36.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 16.2 %pts |
| ML Crankset (CS-6583) | 20 | 16 | 4 | 25.0% |
31.7% |
Regression | Better by 6.7 %pts |
| ML Fork (FK-5136) | 28 | 24 | 4 | 16.7% |
68.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 51.8 %pts |
| ML Headset (HS-2451) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
34.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 34.1 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M63B-38) | 10 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% |
33.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 8.3 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M63B-40) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
7.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 7.6 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M63B-44) | 25 | 26 | -1 | -3.8% |
-11.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 7.5 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M63B-48) | 394 | 370 | 24 | 6.5% |
-8.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 2.1 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 38 (FR-M63S-38) | 14 | 14 | 0 | 0.0% |
-8.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 8.3 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 40 (FR-M63S-40) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
-13.2% |
Exponential | Better by 13.2 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 42 (FR-M63S-42) | 27 | 23 | 4 | 17.4% |
-10.7% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 6.7 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 46 (FR-M63S-46) | 32 | 35 | -3 | -8.6% |
-24.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 16.3 %pts |
| ML Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M762) | 11 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% |
-3.8% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 18.4 %pts |
| ML Mountain Handlebars (HB-M763) | 28 | 29 | -1 | -3.4% |
25.3% |
Regression | Better by 21.8 %pts |
| ML Mountain Pedal (PD-M340) | 18 | 16 | 2 | 12.5% |
-41.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 28.7 %pts |
| ML Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M762) | 35 | 38 | -3 | -7.9% |
35.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 28.0 %pts |
| ML Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M798) | 25 | 25 | 0 | 0.0% |
10.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 10.5 %pts |
| ML Mountain Tire (TI-M602) | 254 | 256 | -2 | -0.8% |
16.3% |
Exponential | Better by 15.6 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R72R-44) | 14 | 14 | 0 | 0.0% |
-17.3% |
Regression | Better by 17.3 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R72R-48) | 58 | 52 | 6 | 11.5% |
40.0% |
Regression | Better by 28.4 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R72R-52) | 428 | 298 | 130 | 43.6% |
18.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 24.9 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R72R-58) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
-37.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 37.4 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R72R-60) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 38 (FR-R72Y-38) | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% |
-2.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 2.5 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 42 (FR-R72Y-42) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
17.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 17.0 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 44 (FR-R72Y-44) | 12 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% |
-16.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 7.6 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 48 (FR-R72Y-48) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
34.9% |
Regression | Better by 34.9 %pts |
| ML Road Front Wheel (FW-R762) | 104 | 112 | -8 | -7.1% |
-17.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 10.5 %pts |
| ML Road Handlebars (HB-R720) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
-52.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 52.4 %pts |
| ML Road Pedal (PD-R563) | 124 | 163 | -39 | -23.9% |
-7.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 16.6 %pts |
| ML Road Rear Wheel (RW-R762) | 13 | 14 | -1 | -7.1% |
-8.5% |
Regression | Better by 1.4 %pts |
| ML Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R908) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-16.3% |
Regression | Better by 16.3 %pts |
| ML Road Tire (TI-R628) | 24 | 25 | -1 | -4.0% |
34.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 30.9 %pts |
| ML Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T762) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Mountain Bike Socks, L (SO-B909-L) | 12 | 15 | -3 | -20.0% |
-52.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 32.7 %pts |
| Mountain Bike Socks, M (SO-B909-M) | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% |
39.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 39.0 %pts |
| Mountain Bottle Cage (BC-M005) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
20.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 20.0 %pts |
| Mountain Pump (PU-M044) | 15 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% |
59.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 44.4 %pts |
| Mountain Tire Tube (TT-M928) | 31 | 33 | -2 | -6.1% |
44.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 38.8 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Black, 38 (BK-M82B-38) | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% |
9.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 9.7 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Black, 42 (BK-M82B-42) | 383 | 867 | -484 | -55.8% |
-65.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 9.5 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Black, 44 (BK-M82B-44) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
3.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 3.0 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Black, 48 (BK-M82B-48) | 21 | 19 | 2 | 10.5% |
-14.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 3.6 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Silver, 38 (BK-M82S-38) | 15 | 27 | -12 | -45.0% |
-26.2% |
Exponential | Worse by 18.8 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Silver, 42 (BK-M82S-42) | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0.0% |
8.5% |
Exponential | Better by 8.5 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Silver, 44 (BK-M82S-44) | 10 | 17 | -7 | -39.9% |
-21.6% |
Exponential | Worse by 18.3 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Silver, 48 (BK-M82S-48) | 25 | 44 | -19 | -42.9% |
-64.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 21.7 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Black, 38 (BK-M68B-38) | 9 | 13 | -4 | -30.3% |
-36.4% |
Regression | Better by 6.2 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Black, 42 (BK-M68B-42) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
-2.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 2.6 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Black, 46 (BK-M68B-46) | 22 | 46 | -24 | -52.5% |
-54.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 1.7 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Silver, 38 (BK-M68S-38) | 196 | 259 | -63 | -24.3% |
-10.1% |
Exponential | Worse by 14.2 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Silver, 42 (BK-M68S-42) | 10 | 43 | -33 | -76.6% |
-71.6% |
Exponential | Worse by 5.0 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Silver, 46 (BK-M68S-46) | 10 | 11 | -1 | -9.1% |
20.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 11.1 %pts |
| Mountain-300 Black, 38 (BK-M47B-38) | 13 | 28 | -15 | -53.0% |
-48.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 4.8 %pts |
| Mountain-300 Black, 40 (BK-M47B-40) | 462 | 767 | -305 | -39.7% |
-43.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 3.3 %pts |
| Mountain-300 Black, 44 (BK-M47B-44) | 12 | 24 | -12 | -49.7% |
-41.9% |
Regression | Worse by 7.8 %pts |
| Mountain-300 Black, 48 (BK-M47B-48) | 190 | 260 | -70 | -26.9% |
-24.1% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 2.8 %pts |
| Mountain-400-W Silver, 38 (BK-M38S-38) | 5 | 12 | -7 | -57.2% |
-60.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 3.5 %pts |
| Mountain-400-W Silver, 40 (BK-M38S-40) | 216 | 208 | 8 | 3.8% |
51.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 47.5 %pts |
| Mountain-400-W Silver, 42 (BK-M38S-42) | 10 | 18 | -8 | -45.9% |
-47.7% |
Regression | Better by 1.8 %pts |
| Mountain-400-W Silver, 46 (BK-M38S-46) | 23 | 43 | -20 | -46.3% |
-36.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 9.6 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 40 (BK-M18B-40) | 265 | 236 | 29 | 12.3% |
12.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 0.4 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 42 (BK-M18B-42) | 11 | 12 | -1 | -8.3% |
9.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 0.7 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 44 (BK-M18B-44) | 211 | 655 | -444 | -67.8% |
-66.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 1.0 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 48 (BK-M18B-48) | 458 | 280 | 178 | 63.6% |
41.4% |
Exponential | Worse by 22.2 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 52 (BK-M18B-52) | 11 | 34 | -23 | -67.8% |
-70.3% |
Regression | Better by 2.5 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 40 (BK-M18S-40) | 17 | 18 | -1 | -5.6% |
-32.0% |
Exponential | Better by 26.4 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 42 (BK-M18S-42) | 251 | 878 | -627 | -71.4% |
-70.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 0.7 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 44 (BK-M18S-44) | 398 | 407 | -9 | -2.2% |
-6.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 4.1 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 48 (BK-M18S-48) | 27 | 42 | -15 | -35.8% |
-30.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 5.2 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 52 (BK-M18S-52) | 22 | 43 | -21 | -49.2% |
-32.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 16.3 %pts |
| Patch Kit/8 Patches (PK-7098) | 77 | 77 | 0 | 0.0% |
11.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 11.4 %pts |
| Racing Socks, L (SO-R809-L) | 13 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% |
-1.0% |
Regression | Worse by 29.0 %pts |
| Racing Socks, M (SO-R809-M) | 22 | 22 | 0 | 0.0% |
-8.7% |
Regression | Better by 8.7 %pts |
| Rear Brakes (RB-9231) | 28 | 29 | -1 | -3.4% |
-4.9% |
Exponential | Better by 1.5 %pts |
| Rear Derailleur (RD-2308) | 77 | 77 | 0 | 0.0% |
2.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 2.6 %pts |
| Road Bottle Cage (BC-R205) | 9 | 12 | -3 | -25.0% |
-30.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 5.1 %pts |
| Road Tire Tube (TT-R982) | 9 | 10 | -1 | -10.0% |
22.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 12.7 %pts |
| Road-150 Red, 44 (BK-R93R-44) | 16 | 15 | 1 | 6.7% |
12.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 6.0 %pts |
| Road-150 Red, 48 (BK-R93R-48) | 9 | 17 | -8 | -47.5% |
-69.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 22.3 %pts |
| Road-150 Red, 52 (BK-R93R-52) | 23 | 16 | 7 | 43.8% |
58.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 14.7 %pts |
| Road-150 Red, 56 (BK-R93R-56) | 21 | 14 | 7 | 50.0% |
30.1% |
Regression | Worse by 19.9 %pts |
| Road-150 Red, 62 (BK-R93R-62) | 22 | 54 | -32 | -59.5% |
-50.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 9.4 %pts |
| Road-250 Black, 44 (BK-R89B-44) | 381 | 451 | -70 | -15.5% |
-42.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 27.0 %pts |
| Road-250 Black, 48 (BK-R89B-48) | 11 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% |
-13.7% |
Exponential | Better by 3.7 %pts |
| Road-250 Black, 52 (BK-R89B-52) | 22 | 23 | -1 | -4.3% |
-28.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 23.9 %pts |
| Road-250 Black, 58 (BK-R89B-58) | 36 | 37 | -1 | -2.7% |
-15.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 12.3 %pts |
| Road-250 Red, 44 (BK-R89R-44) | 259 | 466 | -207 | -44.4% |
-45.9% |
Exponential | Better by 1.5 %pts |
| Road-250 Red, 48 (BK-R89R-48) | 193 | 131 | 62 | 47.3% |
27.4% |
Exponential | Worse by 19.9 %pts |
| Road-250 Red, 52 (BK-R89R-52) | 13 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% |
30.7% |
Regression | Better by 12.5 %pts |
| Road-250 Red, 58 (BK-R89R-58) | 11 | 13 | -2 | -15.4% |
-18.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 3.3 %pts |
| Road-350-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R79Y-40) | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% |
-12.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 12.0 %pts |
| Road-350-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R79Y-42) | 9 | 20 | -11 | -55.4% |
-57.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 2.2 %pts |
| Road-350-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R79Y-44) | 23 | 22 | 1 | 2.3% |
6.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 4.5 %pts |
| Road-350-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R79Y-48) | 17 | 17 | 0 | 0.0% |
8.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 8.6 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 44 (BK-R68R-44) | 26 | 24 | 2 | 8.3% |
-4.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 3.9 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 48 (BK-R68R-48) | 159 | 374 | -215 | -57.5% |
-40.0% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 17.5 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 52 (BK-R68R-52) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
-51.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 51.2 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 58 (BK-R68R-58) | 350 | 319 | 31 | 9.7% |
9.4% |
Exponential | Worse by 0.3 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 60 (BK-R68R-60) | 13 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% |
-5.1% |
Regression | Worse by 13.1 %pts |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 38 (BK-R64Y-38) | 20 | 20 | 0 | 0.0% |
-13.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 13.8 %pts |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R64Y-40) | 19 | 24 | -5 | -19.5% |
-16.2% |
Exponential | Worse by 3.2 %pts |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R64Y-42) | 4 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
-15.6% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 17.8 %pts |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R64Y-44) | 24 | 21 | 3 | 14.3% |
7.7% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 6.6 %pts |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R64Y-48) | 14 | 14 | 0 | 0.0% |
20.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 20.9 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 44 (BK-R50B-44) | 8 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% |
58.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 25.6 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 48 (BK-R50B-48) | 33 | 55 | -22 | -40.0% |
-50.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 10.2 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 52 (BK-R50B-52) | 17 | 32 | -15 | -47.2% |
-43.9% |
Exponential | Worse by 3.3 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 58 (BK-R50B-58) | 17 | 15 | 2 | 13.3% |
3.8% |
Exponential | Worse by 9.6 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 60 (BK-R50B-60) | 10 | 11 | -1 | -9.1% |
-29.0% |
Regression | Better by 19.9 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 62 (BK-R50B-62) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
26.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 26.7 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 44 (BK-R50R-44) | 17 | 11 | 6 | 54.5% |
49.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 4.9 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 48 (BK-R50R-48) | 10 | 20 | -10 | -50.8% |
-31.8% |
Regression | Worse by 19.0 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 52 (BK-R50R-52) | 372 | 349 | 23 | 6.6% |
-10.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 3.9 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 58 (BK-R50R-58) | 36 | 68 | -32 | -47.0% |
-45.8% |
Regression | Worse by 1.2 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 60 (BK-R50R-60) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% |
20.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 30.0 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 62 (BK-R50R-62) | 326 | 366 | -40 | -10.9% |
-17.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 6.6 %pts |
| Road-750 Black, 44 (BK-R19B-44) | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% |
-31.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 31.8 %pts |
| Road-750 Black, 48 (BK-R19B-48) | 18 | 17 | 1 | 5.9% |
11.8% |
Exponential | Better by 5.9 %pts |
| Road-750 Black, 52 (BK-R19B-52) | 29 | 33 | -4 | -12.6% |
-40.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 27.4 %pts |
| Road-750 Black, 58 (BK-R19B-58) | 16 | 15 | 1 | 6.7% |
27.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 20.4 %pts |
| Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, L (SJ-0194-L) | 25 | 24 | 1 | 4.2% |
20.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 16.7 %pts |
| Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, M (SJ-0194-M) | 16 | 15 | 1 | 6.7% |
-1.2% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 5.5 %pts |
| Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, S (SJ-0194-S) | 409 | 399 | 10 | 2.5% |
-3.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 0.5 %pts |
| Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, XL (SJ-0194-X) | 25 | 27 | -2 | -7.4% |
-23.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 15.7 %pts |
| Sport-100 Helmet, Black (HL-U509) | 14 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% |
5.5% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 11.1 %pts |
| Sport-100 Helmet, Blue (HL-U509-B) | 23 | 23 | 0 | 0.0% |
91.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 91.4 %pts |
| Sport-100 Helmet, Red (HL-U509-R) | 42 | 43 | -1 | -2.3% |
17.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 14.8 %pts |
| Taillights - Battery-Powered (LT-T990) | 20 | 20 | 0 | 0.0% |
11.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 11.3 %pts |
| Touring Front Wheel (FW-T905) | 12 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% |
66.5% |
Regression | Better by 33.1 %pts |
| Touring Pedal (PD-T852) | 22 | 23 | -1 | -4.3% |
11.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 7.6 %pts |
| Touring Rear Wheel (RW-T905) | 83 | 63 | 20 | 31.7% |
80.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 49.0 %pts |
| Touring Tire (TI-T723) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
157.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 157.1 %pts |
| Touring Tire Tube (TT-T092) | 41 | 42 | -1 | -2.4% |
73.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 71.1 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Blue, 46 (BK-T79U-46) | 34 | 36 | -2 | -5.6% |
-0.0% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 5.5 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Blue, 50 (BK-T79U-50) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Touring-1000 Blue, 54 (BK-T79U-54) | 15 | 14 | 1 | 7.1% |
0.0% |
Exponential | Worse by 7.1 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Blue, 60 (BK-T79U-60) | 346 | 608 | -262 | -43.1% |
-25.0% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 18.1 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Yellow, 46 (BK-T79Y-46) | 12 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% |
25.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 16.4 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T79Y-50) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
-10.5% |
Exponential | Better by 10.5 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T79Y-54) | 174 | 469 | -295 | -62.9% |
-84.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 22.0 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Yellow, 60 (BK-T79Y-60) | 7 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% |
16.3% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 0.4 %pts |
| Touring-2000 Blue, 46 (BK-T44U-46) | 36 | 28 | 8 | 28.6% |
46.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 17.9 %pts |
| Touring-2000 Blue, 50 (BK-T44U-50) | 20 | 28 | -8 | -28.8% |
-55.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 26.7 %pts |
| Touring-2000 Blue, 54 (BK-T44U-54) | 35 | 56 | -21 | -37.5% |
-39.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 1.9 %pts |
| Touring-2000 Blue, 60 (BK-T44U-60) | 18 | 17 | 1 | 5.9% |
-19.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 14.0 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 44 (BK-T18U-44) | 25 | 20 | 5 | 25.0% |
33.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 8.2 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 50 (BK-T18U-50) | 7 | 8 | -1 | -12.5% |
-28.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 16.1 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 54 (BK-T18U-54) | 14 | 14 | 0 | 0.0% |
-7.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 7.6 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 58 (BK-T18U-58) | 15 | 49 | -34 | -69.2% |
-58.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 10.5 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 62 (BK-T18U-62) | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% |
-16.2% |
Regression | Better by 16.2 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 44 (BK-T18Y-44) | 204 | 225 | -21 | -9.3% |
33.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 24.6 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T18Y-50) | 328 | 262 | 66 | 25.2% |
39.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 14.5 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T18Y-54) | 48 | 44 | 4 | 9.1% |
21.7% |
Regression | Better by 12.6 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 58 (BK-T18Y-58) | 8 | 18 | -10 | -54.6% |
-47.4% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 7.3 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 62 (BK-T18Y-62) | 108 | 137 | -29 | -21.2% |
-13.0% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 8.2 %pts |
| Touring-Panniers, Large (PA-T100) | 489 | 517 | -28 | -5.4% |
-8.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 3.0 %pts |
| Water Bottle - 30 oz. (WB-H098) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-45.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 45.2 %pts |
| Women's Mountain Shorts, L (SH-W890-L) | 19 | 23 | -4 | -17.4% |
-26.5% |
Regression | Better by 9.1 %pts |
| Women's Mountain Shorts, M (SH-W890-M) | 28 | 31 | -3 | -9.7% |
-7.2% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 2.4 %pts |
| Women's Mountain Shorts, S (SH-W890-S) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-18.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 18.0 %pts |
| Women's Tights, L (TG-W091-L) | 288 | 235 | 53 | 22.6% |
-43.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 20.8 %pts |
| Women's Tights, M (TG-W091-M) | 264 | 244 | 20 | 8.2% |
-36.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 28.3 %pts |
| Women's Tights, S (TG-W091-S) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
40.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 40.5 %pts |
| Total | 20,102 | 22,477 | -2,375 | -10.6% | -13.7% | Better in 217 out of 299 items (72.6%) |
| Weighted Average % Error | 25.7% | Weighted Average % Error (Alt) | 23.9% | Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) | 15.2% | Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) | 20.0 |
| Weighted Average % Error-Statistics | 32.4% | Weighted Average % Error (Alt)-Statistics | 7.3% | Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)-Statistics | 26.5% | Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)-Statistics | 24.4 |
| Forecast | Actual | Variance | Percent Error | Stats Pct Error | Best Algorithm | Human vs. Statistics | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All-Purpose Bike Stand (ST-1401) | 73 | 46 | 27 | 58.7% |
51.4% |
Exponential | Worse by 7.3 %pts |
| AWC Logo Cap (CA-1098) | 178 | 156 | 22 | 14.1% |
43.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 29.3 %pts |
| Bike Wash - Dissolver (CL-9009) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | The same |
| Cable Lock (LO-C100) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
23.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 23.8 %pts |
| Chain (CH-0234) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
-100.0% |
Regression | Better by 100.0 %pts |
| Classic Vest, L (VE-C304-L) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
-20.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 20.1 %pts |
| Classic Vest, M (VE-C304-M) | 10 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% |
41.4% |
Exponential | Worse by 1.4 %pts |
| Classic Vest, S (VE-C304-S) | 17 | 15 | 2 | 13.3% |
1.5% |
Regression | Worse by 11.8 %pts |
| Fender Set - Mountain (FE-6654) | 8 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% |
14.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | The same |
| Front Brakes (FB-9873) | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% |
-28.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 28.3 %pts |
| Front Derailleur (FD-2342) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
-24.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 24.0 %pts |
| Full-Finger Gloves, L (GL-F110-L) | 194 | 242 | -48 | -19.8% |
9.8% |
Regression | Worse by 10.1 %pts |
| Full-Finger Gloves, M (GL-F110-M) | 5 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% |
-22.2% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 2.8 %pts |
| Full-Finger Gloves, S (GL-F110-S) | 19 | 21 | -2 | -9.5% |
-32.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 22.6 %pts |
| Half-Finger Gloves, L (GL-H102-L) | 21 | 23 | -2 | -8.7% |
-21.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 12.8 %pts |
| Half-Finger Gloves, M (GL-H102-M) | 49 | 47 | 2 | 4.3% |
-8.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 3.8 %pts |
| Half-Finger Gloves, S (GL-H102-S) | 11 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% |
-35.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 25.4 %pts |
| Headlights - Dual-Beam (LT-H902) | 231 | 282 | -51 | -18.1% |
-47.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 29.4 %pts |
| Hitch Rack - 4-Bike (RA-H123) | 6 | 7 | -1 | -14.3% |
-24.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 10.2 %pts |
| HL Bottom Bracket (BB-9108) | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% |
-22.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 22.5 %pts |
| HL Fork (FK-9939) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
-29.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 29.9 %pts |
| HL Headset (HS-3479) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-10.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 10.9 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M94B-38) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
5.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 5.9 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M94B-42) | 16 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% |
4.6% |
Regression | Worse by 18.5 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M94B-44) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-34.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 34.6 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 46 (FR-M94B-46) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-40.9% |
Regression | Better by 40.9 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M94B-48) | 16 | 17 | -1 | -5.9% |
-6.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 0.6 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 38 (FR-M94S-38) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
30.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 30.2 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M94S-42) | 10 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% |
101.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 58.8 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M94S-44) | 19 | 19 | 0 | 0.0% |
-19.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 19.8 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 46 (FR-M94S-46) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
5.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 5.9 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M94S-52) | 18 | 12 | 6 | 50.0% |
10.9% |
Regression | Worse by 39.1 %pts |
| HL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M928) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
-100.0% |
Regression | Better by 100.0 %pts |
| HL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M918) | 26 | 23 | 3 | 13.0% |
45.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 32.7 %pts |
| HL Mountain Pedal (PD-M562) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| HL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M940) | 10 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% |
26.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 15.1 %pts |
| HL Mountain Tire (TI-M823) | 16 | 16 | 0 | 0.0% |
-28.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 28.4 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R92B-44) | 18 | 18 | 0 | 0.0% |
-36.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 36.5 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R92B-48) | 321 | 287 | 34 | 11.8% |
31.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 19.8 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R92B-52) | 234 | 208 | 26 | 12.5% |
-38.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 26.4 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R92B-58) | 24 | 24 | 0 | 0.0% |
-9.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 9.7 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R92B-62) | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0.0% |
-5.7% |
Exponential | Better by 5.7 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R92R-44) | 62 | 52 | 10 | 19.2% |
10.6% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 8.6 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R92R-48) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
44.8% |
Regression | Better by 44.8 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R92R-52) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-41.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 41.8 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 56 (FR-R92R-56) | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0.0% |
-47.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 47.5 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R92R-58) | 8 | 9 | -1 | -11.1% |
-13.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 2.0 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R92R-62) | 35 | 35 | 0 | 0.0% |
-6.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 6.6 %pts |
| HL Road Front Wheel (FW-R820) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| HL Road Handlebars (HB-R956) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
25.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 25.0 %pts |
| HL Road Pedal (PD-R853) | 12 | 15 | -3 | -20.0% |
-47.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 27.1 %pts |
| HL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R820) | 15 | 14 | 1 | 7.1% |
-12.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 5.6 %pts |
| HL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R995) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| HL Road Tire (TI-R982) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
-10.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 10.6 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Blue, 46 (FR-T98U-46) | 20 | 19 | 1 | 5.3% |
22.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 16.8 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T98U-50) | 8 | 9 | -1 | -11.1% |
-23.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 12.1 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T98U-54) | 12 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% |
-1.7% |
Regression | Worse by 7.3 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Blue, 60 (FR-T98U-60) | 33 | 31 | 2 | 6.5% |
0.9% |
Exponential | Worse by 5.5 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 46 (FR-T98Y-46) | 161 | 155 | 6 | 3.9% |
17.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 13.5 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T98Y-50) | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% |
41.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 41.4 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T98Y-54) | 63 | 60 | 3 | 5.0% |
-36.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 31.8 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 60 (FR-T98Y-60) | 14 | 14 | 0 | 0.0% |
-9.5% |
Exponential | Better by 9.5 %pts |
| HL Touring Handlebars (HB-T928) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-50.0% |
Regression | Better by 50.0 %pts |
| HL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T924) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Hydration Pack - 70 oz. (HY-1023-70) | 23 | 24 | -1 | -4.2% |
-2.7% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 1.5 %pts |
| LL Bottom Bracket (BB-7421) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
11.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 11.5 %pts |
| LL Crankset (CS-4759) | 13 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% |
42.0% |
Exponential | Better by 23.8 %pts |
| LL Fork (FK-1639) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
59.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 59.6 %pts |
| LL Headset (HS-0296) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M21B-40) | 20 | 22 | -2 | -9.1% |
-22.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 12.9 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M21B-42) | 22 | 19 | 3 | 15.8% |
56.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 41.1 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M21B-44) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
44.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 44.1 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M21B-48) | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% |
27.1% |
Regression | Better by 27.1 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 52 (FR-M21B-52) | 42 | 36 | 6 | 16.7% |
23.5% |
Exponential | Better by 6.8 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 40 (FR-M21S-40) | 292 | 293 | -1 | -0.3% |
-21.1% |
Regression | Better by 20.8 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M21S-42) | 7 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% |
36.1% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 3.9 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M21S-44) | 66 | 48 | 18 | 37.5% |
69.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 32.2 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M21S-48) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-2.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 2.0 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 52 (FR-M21S-52) | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% |
20.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 20.0 %pts |
| LL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M423) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
11.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 11.2 %pts |
| LL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M243) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
-20.0% |
Regression | Better by 20.0 %pts |
| LL Mountain Pedal (PD-M282) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
-5.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 5.5 %pts |
| LL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M423) | 11 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% |
42.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 4.5 %pts |
| LL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M236) | 14 | 14 | 0 | 0.0% |
8.6% |
Exponential | Better by 8.6 %pts |
| LL Mountain Tire (TI-M267) | 16 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% |
8.7% |
Exponential | Worse by 14.4 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R38B-44) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
24.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 24.3 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R38B-48) | 23 | 19 | 4 | 21.1% |
10.8% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 10.3 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R38B-52) | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% |
6.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 6.0 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R38B-58) | 10 | 11 | -1 | -9.1% |
-7.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 1.5 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 60 (FR-R38B-60) | 8 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% |
61.0% |
Regression | Better by 1.0 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R38B-62) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
6.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 6.2 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R38R-44) | 333 | 359 | -26 | -7.2% |
-20.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 12.9 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R38R-48) | 5 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% |
67.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 42.5 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R38R-52) | 12 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% |
-1.4% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 7.7 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R38R-58) | 193 | 220 | -27 | -12.3% |
-9.2% |
Regression | Worse by 3.1 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R38R-60) | 12 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% |
42.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 9.1 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R38R-62) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | The same |
| LL Road Front Wheel (FW-R623) | 13 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% |
77.5% |
Regression | Better by 47.5 %pts |
| LL Road Handlebars (HB-R504) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
14.1% |
Regression | Better by 14.1 %pts |
| LL Road Pedal (PD-R347) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| LL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R623) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
11.9% |
Regression | Better by 11.9 %pts |
| LL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R581) | 101 | 85 | 16 | 18.8% |
20.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 1.3 %pts |
| LL Road Tire (TI-R092) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
65.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 65.5 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 44 (FR-T67U-44) | 19 | 14 | 5 | 35.7% |
34.4% |
Exponential | Worse by 1.3 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T67U-50) | 12 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% |
12.7% |
Exponential | Better by 3.6 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T67U-54) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 58 (FR-T67U-58) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-22.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 22.7 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 62 (FR-T67U-62) | 11 | 12 | -1 | -8.3% |
9.2% |
Regression | Better by 0.9 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 44 (FR-T67Y-44) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
140.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 140.3 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T67Y-50) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | The same |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T67Y-54) | 26 | 26 | 0 | 0.0% |
5.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 5.8 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 58 (FR-T67Y-58) | 16 | 17 | -1 | -5.9% |
11.3% |
Regression | Better by 5.4 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 62 (FR-T67Y-62) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
26.7% |
Regression | Better by 26.7 %pts |
| LL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T312) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-12.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 12.8 %pts |
| Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, L (LJ-0192-L) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
3.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 3.8 %pts |
| Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, M (LJ-0192-M) | 279 | 177 | 102 | 57.6% |
79.9% |
Exponential | Better by 22.2 %pts |
| Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, S (LJ-0192-S) | 19 | 13 | 6 | 46.2% |
36.5% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 9.7 %pts |
| Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, XL (LJ-0192-X) | 11 | 13 | -2 | -15.4% |
-13.1% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 2.2 %pts |
| Men's Bib-Shorts, L (SB-M891-L) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
22.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 22.5 %pts |
| Men's Bib-Shorts, M (SB-M891-M) | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% |
24.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 24.3 %pts |
| Men's Bib-Shorts, S (SB-M891-S) | 251 | 184 | 67 | 36.4% |
39.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 3.1 %pts |
| Men's Sports Shorts, L (SH-M897-L) | 15 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% |
23.6% |
Regression | Better by 8.2 %pts |
| Men's Sports Shorts, M (SH-M897-M) | 14 | 14 | 0 | 0.0% |
12.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 12.1 %pts |
| Men's Sports Shorts, S (SH-M897-S) | 49 | 51 | -2 | -3.9% |
-14.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 10.9 %pts |
| Men's Sports Shorts, XL (SH-M897-X) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
9.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 9.0 %pts |
| Minipump (PU-0452) | 278 | 242 | 36 | 14.9% |
-31.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 16.2 %pts |
| ML Bottom Bracket (BB-8107) | 185 | 199 | -14 | -7.0% |
-7.7% |
Exponential | Better by 0.7 %pts |
| ML Crankset (CS-6583) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| ML Fork (FK-5136) | 22 | 19 | 3 | 15.8% |
18.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 2.5 %pts |
| ML Headset (HS-2451) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-36.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 36.0 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M63B-38) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
1.3% |
Regression | Better by 1.3 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M63B-40) | 6 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% |
86.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 66.8 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M63B-48) | 195 | 153 | 42 | 27.5% |
57.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 29.9 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 38 (FR-M63S-38) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-4.8% |
Exponential | Better by 4.8 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 40 (FR-M63S-40) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 42 (FR-M63S-42) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
7.8% |
Exponential | Better by 7.8 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 46 (FR-M63S-46) | 47 | 47 | 0 | 0.0% |
-4.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 4.1 %pts |
| ML Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M762) | 6 | 7 | -1 | -14.3% |
-40.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 26.6 %pts |
| ML Mountain Handlebars (HB-M763) | 8 | 9 | -1 | -11.1% |
-12.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 1.7 %pts |
| ML Mountain Pedal (PD-M340) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| ML Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M762) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
39.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 39.3 %pts |
| ML Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M798) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-40.7% |
Exponential | Better by 40.7 %pts |
| ML Mountain Tire (TI-M602) | 21 | 22 | -1 | -4.5% |
-19.4% |
Exponential | Better by 14.9 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R72R-44) | 13 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% |
54.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 24.2 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R72R-48) | 23 | 21 | 2 | 9.5% |
1.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 8.0 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R72R-52) | 99 | 95 | 4 | 4.2% |
10.4% |
Regression | Better by 6.2 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R72R-58) | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% |
-48.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 48.0 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R72R-60) | 16 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% |
17.5% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 27.9 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 38 (FR-R72Y-38) | 6 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% |
30.7% |
Exponential | Better by 10.7 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 40 (FR-R72Y-40) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 42 (FR-R72Y-42) | 28 | 25 | 3 | 12.0% |
-14.6% |
Regression | Better by 2.6 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 44 (FR-R72Y-44) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
66.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 66.7 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 48 (FR-R72Y-48) | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% |
-26.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 26.5 %pts |
| ML Road Front Wheel (FW-R762) | 46 | 50 | -4 | -8.0% |
-35.0% |
Exponential | Better by 27.0 %pts |
| ML Road Handlebars (HB-R720) | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% |
-13.0% |
Exponential | Better by 13.0 %pts |
| ML Road Pedal (PD-R563) | 230 | 261 | -31 | -11.9% |
-24.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 13.0 %pts |
| ML Road Rear Wheel (RW-R762) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
3.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 3.8 %pts |
| ML Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R908) | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% |
-46.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 46.9 %pts |
| ML Road Tire (TI-R628) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
5.9% |
Regression | Better by 5.9 %pts |
| ML Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T762) | 24 | 25 | -1 | -4.0% |
-13.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 9.7 %pts |
| Mountain Bike Socks, L (SO-B909-L) | 17 | 18 | -1 | -5.6% |
-22.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 16.6 %pts |
| Mountain Bottle Cage (BC-M005) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
-0.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 0.5 %pts |
| Mountain Pump (PU-M044) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
52.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 52.3 %pts |
| Mountain Tire Tube (TT-M928) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
7.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 7.0 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Black, 38 (BK-M82B-38) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
-100.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 100.0 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Black, 42 (BK-M82B-42) | 240 | 244 | -4 | -1.6% |
10.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 8.7 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Black, 44 (BK-M82B-44) | 15 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% |
36.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 21.4 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Black, 48 (BK-M82B-48) | 12 | 13 | -1 | -7.7% |
-5.7% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 2.0 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Silver, 38 (BK-M82S-38) | 20 | 24 | -4 | -16.7% |
-30.0% |
Regression | Better by 13.3 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Silver, 42 (BK-M82S-42) | 13 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% |
33.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 3.1 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Silver, 44 (BK-M82S-44) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-37.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 37.8 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Silver, 48 (BK-M82S-48) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
20.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 20.0 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Black, 38 (BK-M68B-38) | 9 | 10 | -1 | -10.0% |
17.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 7.1 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Black, 42 (BK-M68B-42) | 19 | 16 | 3 | 18.8% |
24.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 5.4 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Black, 46 (BK-M68B-46) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Mountain-200 Silver, 38 (BK-M68S-38) | 64 | 67 | -3 | -4.5% |
-16.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 11.6 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Silver, 42 (BK-M68S-42) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-49.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 49.8 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Silver, 46 (BK-M68S-46) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
74.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 74.0 %pts |
| Mountain-300 Black, 38 (BK-M47B-38) | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% |
4.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 4.7 %pts |
| Mountain-300 Black, 40 (BK-M47B-40) | 261 | 257 | 4 | 1.6% |
23.6% |
Regression | Better by 22.0 %pts |
| Mountain-300 Black, 44 (BK-M47B-44) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Mountain-300 Black, 48 (BK-M47B-48) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-4.8% |
Regression | Better by 4.8 %pts |
| Mountain-400-W Silver, 38 (BK-M38S-38) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-22.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 22.7 %pts |
| Mountain-400-W Silver, 40 (BK-M38S-40) | 202 | 122 | 80 | 65.6% |
118.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 52.9 %pts |
| Mountain-400-W Silver, 42 (BK-M38S-42) | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% |
11.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 11.2 %pts |
| Mountain-400-W Silver, 46 (BK-M38S-46) | 18 | 19 | -1 | -5.3% |
30.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 24.8 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 40 (BK-M18B-40) | 85 | 64 | 21 | 32.8% |
28.4% |
Exponential | Worse by 4.4 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 42 (BK-M18B-42) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Mountain-500 Black, 44 (BK-M18B-44) | 177 | 138 | 39 | 28.3% |
62.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 34.6 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 48 (BK-M18B-48) | 143 | 132 | 11 | 8.3% |
21.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 13.0 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 52 (BK-M18B-52) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
8.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 8.7 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 40 (BK-M18S-40) | 17 | 20 | -3 | -15.0% |
-2.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 12.6 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 42 (BK-M18S-42) | 254 | 261 | -7 | -2.7% |
-16.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 14.1 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 44 (BK-M18S-44) | 157 | 143 | 14 | 9.8% |
14.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 5.0 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 48 (BK-M18S-48) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
4.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 4.8 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 52 (BK-M18S-52) | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% |
-10.5% |
Regression | Better by 10.5 %pts |
| Patch Kit/8 Patches (PK-7098) | 191 | 145 | 46 | 31.7% |
11.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 20.0 %pts |
| Racing Socks, L (SO-R809-L) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-0.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 0.2 %pts |
| Racing Socks, M (SO-R809-M) | 25 | 26 | -1 | -3.8% |
12.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 8.5 %pts |
| Rear Brakes (RB-9231) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-13.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 13.0 %pts |
| Rear Derailleur (RD-2308) | 443 | 374 | 69 | 18.4% |
-20.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 2.0 %pts |
| Road Bottle Cage (BC-R205) | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% |
-34.6% |
Exponential | Better by 34.6 %pts |
| Road Tire Tube (TT-R982) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
40.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 40.0 %pts |
| Road-150 Red, 44 (BK-R93R-44) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Road-150 Red, 48 (BK-R93R-48) | 4 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
37.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 4.2 %pts |
| Road-150 Red, 52 (BK-R93R-52) | 12 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% |
48.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 28.2 %pts |
| Road-150 Red, 56 (BK-R93R-56) | 13 | 14 | -1 | -7.1% |
25.5% |
Regression | Better by 18.3 %pts |
| Road-150 Red, 62 (BK-R93R-62) | 12 | 13 | -1 | -7.7% |
-11.4% |
Regression | Better by 3.7 %pts |
| Road-250 Black, 44 (BK-R89B-44) | 335 | 278 | 57 | 20.5% |
27.3% |
Regression | Better by 6.8 %pts |
| Road-250 Black, 48 (BK-R89B-48) | 49 | 55 | -6 | -10.9% |
-13.9% |
Regression | Better by 3.0 %pts |
| Road-250 Black, 52 (BK-R89B-52) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Road-250 Black, 58 (BK-R89B-58) | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% |
-22.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 22.6 %pts |
| Road-250 Red, 44 (BK-R89R-44) | 142 | 110 | 32 | 29.1% |
43.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 14.9 %pts |
| Road-250 Red, 48 (BK-R89R-48) | 70 | 69 | 1 | 1.4% |
-23.0% |
Regression | Better by 21.5 %pts |
| Road-250 Red, 52 (BK-R89R-52) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Road-250 Red, 58 (BK-R89R-58) | 19 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% |
18.0% |
Regression | Worse by 8.7 %pts |
| Road-350-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R79Y-40) | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% |
24.3% |
Regression | Better by 24.3 %pts |
| Road-350-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R79Y-44) | 27 | 23 | 4 | 17.4% |
18.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 0.8 %pts |
| Road-350-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R79Y-48) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
14.7% |
Regression | Better by 14.7 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 44 (BK-R68R-44) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-22.6% |
Exponential | Better by 22.6 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 48 (BK-R68R-48) | 148 | 177 | -29 | -16.4% |
28.3% |
Exponential | Better by 11.9 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 52 (BK-R68R-52) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Road-450 Red, 58 (BK-R68R-58) | 220 | 256 | -36 | -14.1% |
11.9% |
Exponential | Worse by 2.1 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 60 (BK-R68R-60) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
-4.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 4.9 %pts |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 38 (BK-R64Y-38) | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0.0% |
8.6% |
Exponential | Better by 8.6 %pts |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R64Y-40) | 11 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% |
30.6% |
Exponential | Better by 20.6 %pts |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R64Y-42) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-18.7% |
Regression | Better by 18.7 %pts |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R64Y-44) | 13 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% |
43.5% |
Exponential | Worse by 1.0 %pts |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R64Y-48) | 20 | 17 | 3 | 17.6% |
7.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 10.2 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 44 (BK-R50B-44) | 13 | 15 | -2 | -13.3% |
-33.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 19.9 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 52 (BK-R50B-52) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-17.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 17.6 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 58 (BK-R50B-58) | 9 | 10 | -1 | -10.0% |
8.2% |
Exponential | Worse by 1.8 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 60 (BK-R50B-60) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
-10.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 10.9 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 62 (BK-R50B-62) | 11 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% |
34.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 3.0 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 44 (BK-R50R-44) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
-24.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 24.4 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 48 (BK-R50R-48) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
19.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 19.7 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 52 (BK-R50R-52) | 30 | 24 | 6 | 25.0% |
-8.9% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 16.1 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 58 (BK-R50R-58) | 18 | 17 | 1 | 5.9% |
8.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 2.6 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 60 (BK-R50R-60) | 13 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% |
-2.6% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 5.8 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 62 (BK-R50R-62) | 329 | 376 | -47 | -12.5% |
-15.8% |
Regression | Better by 3.3 %pts |
| Road-750 Black, 44 (BK-R19B-44) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Road-750 Black, 48 (BK-R19B-48) | 12 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% |
16.6% |
Exponential | Better by 7.5 %pts |
| Road-750 Black, 52 (BK-R19B-52) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-43.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 43.7 %pts |
| Road-750 Black, 58 (BK-R19B-58) | 7 | 4 | 3 | 75.0% |
144.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 69.4 %pts |
| Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, L (SJ-0194-L) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
20.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 20.8 %pts |
| Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, M (SJ-0194-M) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, S (SJ-0194-S) | 190 | 191 | -1 | -0.5% |
-32.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 32.0 %pts |
| Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, XL (SJ-0194-X) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
69.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 69.8 %pts |
| Sport-100 Helmet, Black (HL-U509) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-26.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 26.5 %pts |
| Sport-100 Helmet, Blue (HL-U509-B) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Sport-100 Helmet, Red (HL-U509-R) | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% |
21.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 21.4 %pts |
| Touring Front Wheel (FW-T905) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Touring Pedal (PD-T852) | 18 | 19 | -1 | -5.3% |
-4.9% |
Exponential | Worse by 0.4 %pts |
| Touring Rear Wheel (RW-T905) | 291 | 183 | 108 | 59.0% |
29.1% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 29.9 %pts |
| Touring Tire (TI-T723) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | The same |
| Touring Tire Tube (TT-T092) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
4.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 4.4 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Blue, 46 (BK-T79U-46) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 0.3 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Blue, 50 (BK-T79U-50) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Touring-1000 Blue, 54 (BK-T79U-54) | 11 | 13 | -2 | -15.4% |
10.5% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 4.9 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Blue, 60 (BK-T79U-60) | 225 | 226 | -1 | -0.4% |
-20.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 20.3 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Yellow, 46 (BK-T79Y-46) | 14 | 15 | -1 | -6.7% |
-24.6% |
Regression | Better by 17.9 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T79Y-50) | 13 | 14 | -1 | -7.1% |
-3.7% |
Exponential | Worse by 3.4 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T79Y-54) | 229 | 285 | -56 | -19.6% |
-19.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 0.2 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Yellow, 60 (BK-T79Y-60) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Touring-2000 Blue, 46 (BK-T44U-46) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
-100.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 100.0 %pts |
| Touring-2000 Blue, 50 (BK-T44U-50) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Touring-2000 Blue, 54 (BK-T44U-54) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
6.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 6.7 %pts |
| Touring-2000 Blue, 60 (BK-T44U-60) | 10 | 12 | -2 | -16.7% |
2.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 14.2 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 44 (BK-T18U-44) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 50 (BK-T18U-50) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
10.6% |
Regression | Better by 10.6 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 54 (BK-T18U-54) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 62 (BK-T18U-62) | 16 | 14 | 2 | 14.3% |
23.1% |
Regression | Better by 8.8 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 44 (BK-T18Y-44) | 109 | 96 | 13 | 13.5% |
2.7% |
Exponential | Worse by 10.8 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T18Y-50) | 287 | 245 | 42 | 17.1% |
-36.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 19.0 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T18Y-54) | 124 | 109 | 15 | 13.8% |
19.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 6.0 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 58 (BK-T18Y-58) | 7 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% |
27.3% |
Regression | Worse by 12.7 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 62 (BK-T18Y-62) | 61 | 51 | 10 | 19.6% |
9.0% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 10.6 %pts |
| Touring-Panniers, Large (PA-T100) | 240 | 241 | -1 | -0.4% |
-21.0% |
Exponential | Better by 20.6 %pts |
| Water Bottle - 30 oz. (WB-H098) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
-10.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 10.7 %pts |
| Women's Mountain Shorts, L (SH-W890-L) | 12 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% |
71.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 37.7 %pts |
| Women's Mountain Shorts, M (SH-W890-M) | 10 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% |
-20.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 9.1 %pts |
| Women's Mountain Shorts, S (SH-W890-S) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
14.9% |
Exponential | Better by 14.9 %pts |
| Women's Tights, L (TG-W091-L) | 199 | 150 | 49 | 32.7% |
1.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 31.0 %pts |
| Women's Tights, M (TG-W091-M) | 195 | 145 | 50 | 34.5% |
59.9% |
Regression | Better by 25.4 %pts |
| Women's Tights, S (TG-W091-S) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Total | 11,968 | 11,189 | 779 | 7.0% | 3.3% | Better in 221 out of 299 items (73.9%) |
| Weighted Average % Error | 14.9% | Weighted Average % Error (Alt) | 13.4% | Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) | 9.2% | Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) | 5.8 |
| Weighted Average % Error-Statistics | 25.8% | Weighted Average % Error (Alt)-Statistics | 2.6% | Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)-Statistics | 23.5% | Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)-Statistics | 9.7 |
| Forecast | Actual | Variance | Percent Error | Stats Pct Error | Best Algorithm | Human vs. Statistics | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All-Purpose Bike Stand (ST-1401) | 534 | 443 | 91 | 20.5% |
-1.3% |
Regression | Worse by 19.2 %pts |
| AWC Logo Cap (CA-1098) | 492 | 542 | -50 | -9.2% |
-10.0% |
Regression | Better by 0.8 %pts |
| Bike Wash - Dissolver (CL-9009) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
-100.0% |
Regression | Better by 100.0 %pts |
| Cable Lock (LO-C100) | 14 | 15 | -1 | -6.7% |
10.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 3.5 %pts |
| Chain (CH-0234) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
29.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 29.7 %pts |
| Classic Vest, L (VE-C304-L) | 27 | 26 | 1 | 3.8% |
-22.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 18.8 %pts |
| Classic Vest, M (VE-C304-M) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
9.4% |
Regression | Better by 9.4 %pts |
| Classic Vest, S (VE-C304-S) | 32 | 25 | 7 | 28.0% |
5.7% |
Exponential | Worse by 22.3 %pts |
| Fender Set - Mountain (FE-6654) | 36 | 30 | 6 | 20.0% |
6.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 13.9 %pts |
| Front Brakes (FB-9873) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
-13.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 13.5 %pts |
| Front Derailleur (FD-2342) | 10 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% |
37.6% |
Exponential | Better by 12.6 %pts |
| Full-Finger Gloves, L (GL-F110-L) | 194 | 113 | 81 | 71.7% |
42.0% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 29.7 %pts |
| Full-Finger Gloves, M (GL-F110-M) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
1.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 1.6 %pts |
| Full-Finger Gloves, S (GL-F110-S) | 24 | 20 | 4 | 20.0% |
19.0% |
Regression | Worse by 1.0 %pts |
| Half-Finger Gloves, L (GL-H102-L) | 14 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% |
29.9% |
Regression | Better by 2.6 %pts |
| Half-Finger Gloves, M (GL-H102-M) | 326 | 240 | 86 | 35.8% |
47.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 11.4 %pts |
| Half-Finger Gloves, S (GL-H102-S) | 163 | 153 | 10 | 6.5% |
-42.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 35.5 %pts |
| Headlights - Dual-Beam (LT-H902) | 212 | 159 | 53 | 33.3% |
16.3% |
Regression | Worse by 17.0 %pts |
| Headlights - Weatherproof (LT-H903) | 31 | 30 | 1 | 3.3% |
29.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 26.4 %pts |
| Hitch Rack - 4-Bike (RA-H123) | 33 | 35 | -2 | -5.7% |
-25.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 19.6 %pts |
| HL Bottom Bracket (BB-9108) | 14 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% |
61.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 34.6 %pts |
| HL Crankset (CS-9183) | 34 | 32 | 2 | 6.3% |
-5.5% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 0.8 %pts |
| HL Fork (FK-9939) | 12 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% |
-23.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 14.7 %pts |
| HL Headset (HS-3479) | 24 | 25 | -1 | -4.0% |
3.6% |
Regression | Worse by 0.4 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M94B-38) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
-37.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 37.6 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M94B-42) | 11 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% |
-7.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 14.5 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M94B-44) | 33 | 33 | 0 | 0.0% |
-7.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 7.5 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 46 (FR-M94B-46) | 38 | 31 | 7 | 22.6% |
5.2% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 17.3 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M94B-48) | 15 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% |
11.2% |
Regression | Worse by 4.2 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 38 (FR-M94S-38) | 32 | 26 | 6 | 23.1% |
28.8% |
Exponential | Better by 5.8 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M94S-42) | 21 | 16 | 5 | 31.3% |
60.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 29.4 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M94S-44) | 27 | 25 | 2 | 8.0% |
-0.8% |
Exponential | Worse by 7.2 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 46 (FR-M94S-46) | 14 | 16 | -2 | -12.5% |
12.0% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 0.5 %pts |
| HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M94S-52) | 10 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% |
81.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 56.0 %pts |
| HL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M928) | 19 | 17 | 2 | 11.8% |
14.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 2.2 %pts |
| HL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M918) | 15 | 15 | 0 | 0.0% |
-11.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 11.3 %pts |
| HL Mountain Pedal (PD-M562) | 13 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% |
-5.7% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 2.7 %pts |
| HL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M928) | 22 | 17 | 5 | 29.4% |
98.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 69.0 %pts |
| HL Mountain Tire (TI-M823) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
-6.0% |
Regression | Better by 6.0 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R92B-44) | 303 | 291 | 12 | 4.1% |
22.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 18.7 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R92B-48) | 83 | 97 | -14 | -14.4% |
-9.2% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 5.2 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R92B-52) | 50 | 50 | 0 | 0.0% |
-11.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 11.5 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R92B-58) | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% |
14.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 14.5 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R92B-62) | 16 | 16 | 0 | 0.0% |
-23.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 23.2 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R92R-44) | 409 | 392 | 17 | 4.3% |
34.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 30.1 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R92R-48) | 12 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% |
15.0% |
Regression | Worse by 18.3 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R92R-52) | 27 | 23 | 4 | 17.4% |
-13.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 4.0 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 56 (FR-R92R-56) | 9 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% |
8.9% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 3.6 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R92R-58) | 26 | 25 | 1 | 4.0% |
-18.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 14.0 %pts |
| HL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R92R-62) | 228 | 156 | 72 | 46.2% |
46.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 0.1 %pts |
| HL Road Front Wheel (FW-R820) | 23 | 22 | 1 | 4.5% |
6.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 1.8 %pts |
| HL Road Handlebars (HB-R956) | 23 | 25 | -2 | -8.0% |
16.0% |
Regression | Better by 8.0 %pts |
| HL Road Pedal (PD-R853) | 11 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% |
60.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 50.2 %pts |
| HL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R820) | 13 | 14 | -1 | -7.1% |
-13.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 6.5 %pts |
| HL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R995) | 15 | 16 | -1 | -6.3% |
-5.4% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 0.8 %pts |
| HL Road Tire (TI-R982) | 31 | 31 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 0.9 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Blue, 46 (FR-T98U-46) | 23 | 23 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 0.5 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T98U-54) | 6 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% |
3.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 16.7 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Blue, 60 (FR-T98U-60) | 209 | 196 | 13 | 6.6% |
11.1% |
Regression | Better by 4.5 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 46 (FR-T98Y-46) | 259 | 296 | -37 | -12.5% |
-29.0% |
Regression | Better by 16.5 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T98Y-50) | 34 | 34 | 0 | 0.0% |
1.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 1.6 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T98Y-54) | 277 | 281 | -4 | -1.4% |
-10.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 9.0 %pts |
| HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 60 (FR-T98Y-60) | 16 | 17 | -1 | -5.9% |
-15.7% |
Regression | Better by 9.8 %pts |
| HL Touring Handlebars (HB-T928) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-50.0% |
Regression | Better by 50.0 %pts |
| HL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T924) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
-100.0% |
Regression | Better by 100.0 %pts |
| Hydration Pack - 70 oz. (HY-1023-70) | 14 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% |
4.8% |
Exponential | Worse by 11.8 %pts |
| LL Bottom Bracket (BB-7421) | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% |
3.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 3.5 %pts |
| LL Crankset (CS-4759) | 36 | 38 | -2 | -5.3% |
6.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 1.4 %pts |
| LL Fork (FK-1639) | 18 | 13 | 5 | 38.5% |
-16.9% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 21.6 %pts |
| LL Headset (HS-0296) | 18 | 20 | -2 | -10.0% |
-9.4% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 0.6 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M21B-40) | 10 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% |
75.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 32.6 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M21B-42) | 29 | 30 | -1 | -3.3% |
16.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 13.1 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M21B-44) | 22 | 22 | 0 | 0.0% |
20.3% |
Regression | Better by 20.3 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M21B-48) | 23 | 21 | 2 | 9.5% |
19.8% |
Regression | Better by 10.2 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Black, 52 (FR-M21B-52) | 65 | 79 | -14 | -17.7% |
-1.7% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 16.0 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 40 (FR-M21S-40) | 560 | 431 | 129 | 29.9% |
41.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 11.1 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M21S-42) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M21S-44) | 134 | 127 | 7 | 5.5% |
1.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 4.4 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M21S-48) | 26 | 24 | 2 | 8.3% |
-0.3% |
Exponential | Worse by 8.0 %pts |
| LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 52 (FR-M21S-52) | 487 | 451 | 36 | 8.0% |
18.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 10.2 %pts |
| LL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M423) | 10 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% |
20.2% |
Regression | Worse by 22.7 %pts |
| LL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M243) | 21 | 18 | 3 | 16.7% |
71.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 54.9 %pts |
| LL Mountain Pedal (PD-M282) | 22 | 22 | 0 | 0.0% |
18.5% |
Regression | Better by 18.5 %pts |
| LL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M423) | 27 | 21 | 6 | 28.6% |
-0.6% |
Exponential | Worse by 27.9 %pts |
| LL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M236) | 22 | 20 | 2 | 10.0% |
35.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 25.4 %pts |
| LL Mountain Tire (TI-M267) | 24 | 24 | 0 | 0.0% |
15.9% |
Exponential | Better by 15.9 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R38B-44) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
19.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 19.1 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R38B-48) | 11 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% |
-1.6% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 35.9 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R38B-52) | 25 | 19 | 6 | 31.6% |
14.9% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 16.7 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R38B-58) | 16 | 18 | -2 | -11.1% |
8.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 2.3 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 60 (FR-R38B-60) | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% |
-13.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 13.3 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R38B-62) | 22 | 22 | 0 | 0.0% |
3.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 3.5 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R38R-44) | 173 | 199 | -26 | -13.1% |
-17.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 4.2 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R38R-48) | 9 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% |
14.6% |
Exponential | Better by 2.1 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R38R-52) | 14 | 15 | -1 | -6.7% |
18.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 11.4 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R38R-58) | 342 | 350 | -8 | -2.3% |
-22.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 19.8 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R38R-60) | 126 | 124 | 2 | 1.6% |
-33.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 31.9 %pts |
| LL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R38R-62) | 16 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% |
12.8% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 32.7 %pts |
| LL Road Front Wheel (FW-R623) | 21 | 15 | 6 | 40.0% |
25.1% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 14.9 %pts |
| LL Road Handlebars (HB-R504) | 34 | 40 | -6 | -15.0% |
-36.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 21.1 %pts |
| LL Road Pedal (PD-R347) | 14 | 9 | 5 | 55.6% |
61.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 5.6 %pts |
| LL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R623) | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% |
-14.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 14.6 %pts |
| LL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R581) | 422 | 336 | 86 | 25.6% |
2.9% |
Regression | Worse by 22.7 %pts |
| LL Road Tire (TI-R092) | 33 | 34 | -1 | -2.9% |
-3.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 0.6 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 44 (FR-T67U-44) | 18 | 16 | 2 | 12.5% |
-4.3% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 8.2 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T67U-50) | 13 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% |
48.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 30.2 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T67U-54) | 25 | 20 | 5 | 25.0% |
32.7% |
Exponential | Better by 7.7 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 58 (FR-T67U-58) | 17 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% |
30.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 8.9 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Blue, 62 (FR-T67U-62) | 15 | 14 | 1 | 7.1% |
22.3% |
Regression | Better by 15.1 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 44 (FR-T67Y-44) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
36.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 36.5 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T67Y-50) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
36.6% |
Regression | Better by 36.6 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T67Y-54) | 376 | 289 | 87 | 30.1% |
55.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 25.4 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 58 (FR-T67Y-58) | 18 | 17 | 1 | 5.9% |
49.7% |
Exponential | Better by 43.9 %pts |
| LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 62 (FR-T67Y-62) | 12 | 13 | -1 | -7.7% |
-4.7% |
Regression | Worse by 3.0 %pts |
| LL Touring Handlebars (HB-T721) | 40 | 28 | 12 | 42.9% |
-1.9% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 40.9 %pts |
| LL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T312) | 24 | 21 | 3 | 14.3% |
15.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 1.6 %pts |
| Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, L (LJ-0192-L) | 27 | 25 | 2 | 8.0% |
-1.5% |
Regression | Worse by 6.5 %pts |
| Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, M (LJ-0192-M) | 510 | 588 | -78 | -13.3% |
-18.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 5.3 %pts |
| Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, S (LJ-0192-S) | 24 | 27 | -3 | -11.1% |
-24.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 13.1 %pts |
| Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, XL (LJ-0192-X) | 8 | 9 | -1 | -11.1% |
10.5% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 0.6 %pts |
| Men's Bib-Shorts, L (SB-M891-L) | 17 | 15 | 2 | 13.3% |
10.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 2.7 %pts |
| Men's Bib-Shorts, M (SB-M891-M) | 19 | 21 | -2 | -9.5% |
-21.5% |
Regression | Better by 12.0 %pts |
| Men's Bib-Shorts, S (SB-M891-S) | 199 | 215 | -16 | -7.4% |
1.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 5.8 %pts |
| Men's Sports Shorts, S (SH-M897-S) | 10 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% |
33.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 22.4 %pts |
| Men's Sports Shorts, XL (SH-M897-X) | 22 | 21 | 1 | 4.8% |
-2.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 1.9 %pts |
| Minipump (PU-0452) | 103 | 114 | -11 | -9.6% |
-14.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 4.5 %pts |
| ML Bottom Bracket (BB-8107) | 136 | 120 | 16 | 13.3% |
-6.7% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 6.6 %pts |
| ML Crankset (CS-6583) | 17 | 12 | 5 | 41.7% |
49.5% |
Exponential | Better by 7.9 %pts |
| ML Fork (FK-5136) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
-7.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 7.0 %pts |
| ML Headset (HS-2451) | 15 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% |
26.9% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 9.5 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M63B-38) | 4 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
84.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 51.1 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M63B-40) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
10.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 10.5 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M63B-44) | 20 | 21 | -1 | -4.8% |
-25.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 20.6 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M63B-48) | 222 | 237 | -15 | -6.3% |
7.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 1.0 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 38 (FR-M63S-38) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
-35.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 35.8 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 40 (FR-M63S-40) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 42 (FR-M63S-42) | 15 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% |
-57.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 42.1 %pts |
| ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 46 (FR-M63S-46) | 70 | 70 | 0 | 0.0% |
7.0% |
Regression | Better by 7.0 %pts |
| ML Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M762) | 13 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% |
15.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 6.9 %pts |
| ML Mountain Handlebars (HB-M763) | 23 | 23 | 0 | 0.0% |
6.2% |
Exponential | Better by 6.2 %pts |
| ML Mountain Pedal (PD-M340) | 19 | 16 | 3 | 18.8% |
42.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 23.5 %pts |
| ML Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M762) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
-10.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 10.9 %pts |
| ML Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M798) | 20 | 15 | 5 | 33.3% |
57.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 24.3 %pts |
| ML Mountain Tire (TI-M602) | 203 | 173 | 30 | 17.3% |
12.5% |
Exponential | Worse by 4.8 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R72R-44) | 8 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% |
-0.8% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 13.5 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R72R-48) | 34 | 36 | -2 | -5.6% |
-13.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 7.9 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R72R-52) | 19 | 21 | -2 | -9.5% |
-1.4% |
Exponential | Worse by 8.1 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R72R-58) | 19 | 21 | -2 | -9.5% |
-14.5% |
Regression | Better by 5.0 %pts |
| ML Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R72R-60) | 43 | 44 | -1 | -2.3% |
6.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 4.5 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 38 (FR-R72Y-38) | 17 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% |
33.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 2.2 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 40 (FR-R72Y-40) | 38 | 37 | 1 | 2.7% |
8.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 5.3 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 42 (FR-R72Y-42) | 15 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% |
18.6% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 17.7 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 44 (FR-R72Y-44) | 469 | 375 | 94 | 25.1% |
35.5% |
Regression | Better by 10.4 %pts |
| ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 48 (FR-R72Y-48) | 16 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% |
34.5% |
Exponential | Worse by 10.9 %pts |
| ML Road Front Wheel (FW-R762) | 546 | 616 | -70 | -11.4% |
-4.4% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 7.0 %pts |
| ML Road Handlebars (HB-R720) | 21 | 19 | 2 | 10.5% |
40.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 29.8 %pts |
| ML Road Pedal (PD-R563) | 155 | 124 | 31 | 25.0% |
21.4% |
Regression | Worse by 3.6 %pts |
| ML Road Rear Wheel (RW-R762) | 11 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% |
-1.4% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 20.8 %pts |
| ML Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R908) | 7 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% |
15.5% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 1.2 %pts |
| ML Road Tire (TI-R628) | 22 | 22 | 0 | 0.0% |
-13.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 13.2 %pts |
| ML Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T762) | 27 | 23 | 4 | 17.4% |
11.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 5.5 %pts |
| Mountain Bike Socks, L (SO-B909-L) | 21 | 20 | 1 | 5.0% |
24.4% |
Exponential | Better by 19.4 %pts |
| Mountain Bike Socks, M (SO-B909-M) | 14 | 15 | -1 | -6.7% |
-7.2% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 0.5 %pts |
| Mountain Bottle Cage (BC-M005) | 15 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% |
14.2% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 1.2 %pts |
| Mountain Pump (PU-M044) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-50.0% |
Regression | Better by 50.0 %pts |
| Mountain Tire Tube (TT-M928) | 15 | 16 | -1 | -6.3% |
-24.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 18.4 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Black, 38 (BK-M82B-38) | 36 | 27 | 9 | 33.3% |
48.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 15.3 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Black, 42 (BK-M82B-42) | 269 | 274 | -5 | -1.8% |
0.3% |
Regression | Worse by 1.5 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Black, 44 (BK-M82B-44) | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% |
-5.3% |
Exponential | Better by 5.3 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Black, 48 (BK-M82B-48) | 17 | 17 | 0 | 0.0% |
-9.2% |
Regression | Better by 9.2 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Silver, 38 (BK-M82S-38) | 19 | 18 | 1 | 5.6% |
11.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 5.7 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Silver, 42 (BK-M82S-42) | 19 | 18 | 1 | 5.6% |
7.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 1.6 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Silver, 44 (BK-M82S-44) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
50.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 50.1 %pts |
| Mountain-100 Silver, 48 (BK-M82S-48) | 21 | 21 | 0 | 0.0% |
-16.0% |
Exponential | Better by 16.0 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Black, 38 (BK-M68B-38) | 15 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% |
74.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 49.3 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Black, 42 (BK-M68B-42) | 15 | 15 | 0 | 0.0% |
-10.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 10.7 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Black, 46 (BK-M68B-46) | 24 | 23 | 1 | 4.3% |
3.5% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 0.9 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Silver, 38 (BK-M68S-38) | 429 | 396 | 33 | 8.3% |
-19.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 11.6 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Silver, 42 (BK-M68S-42) | 17 | 17 | 0 | 0.0% |
-3.2% |
Regression | Better by 3.2 %pts |
| Mountain-200 Silver, 46 (BK-M68S-46) | 18 | 18 | 0 | 0.0% |
4.2% |
Regression | Better by 4.2 %pts |
| Mountain-300 Black, 38 (BK-M47B-38) | 25 | 23 | 2 | 8.7% |
-2.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 6.3 %pts |
| Mountain-300 Black, 40 (BK-M47B-40) | 242 | 258 | -16 | -6.2% |
13.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 7.3 %pts |
| Mountain-300 Black, 44 (BK-M47B-44) | 13 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% |
-19.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 1.4 %pts |
| Mountain-300 Black, 48 (BK-M47B-48) | 243 | 256 | -13 | -5.1% |
-10.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 5.5 %pts |
| Mountain-400-W Silver, 38 (BK-M38S-38) | 18 | 17 | 1 | 5.9% |
-1.4% |
Regression | Worse by 4.5 %pts |
| Mountain-400-W Silver, 40 (BK-M38S-40) | 193 | 237 | -44 | -18.6% |
-15.2% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 3.4 %pts |
| Mountain-400-W Silver, 42 (BK-M38S-42) | 12 | 13 | -1 | -7.7% |
3.1% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 4.6 %pts |
| Mountain-400-W Silver, 46 (BK-M38S-46) | 10 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% |
44.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 33.3 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 40 (BK-M18B-40) | 89 | 94 | -5 | -5.3% |
-3.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 1.4 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 42 (BK-M18B-42) | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% |
26.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 26.3 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 44 (BK-M18B-44) | 40 | 30 | 10 | 33.3% |
-7.3% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 26.0 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 48 (BK-M18B-48) | 97 | 103 | -6 | -5.8% |
-16.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 10.2 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Black, 52 (BK-M18B-52) | 6 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% |
53.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 33.4 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 40 (BK-M18S-40) | 26 | 28 | -2 | -7.1% |
-7.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 0.2 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 42 (BK-M18S-42) | 29 | 24 | 5 | 20.8% |
14.0% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 6.8 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 44 (BK-M18S-44) | 246 | 270 | -24 | -8.9% |
3.2% |
Exponential | Worse by 5.7 %pts |
| Mountain-500 Silver, 48 (BK-M18S-48) | 10 | 12 | -2 | -16.7% |
-24.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 7.6 %pts |
| Patch Kit/8 Patches (PK-7098) | 182 | 217 | -35 | -16.1% |
-2.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 13.3 %pts |
| Racing Socks, L (SO-R809-L) | 16 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% |
42.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 2.5 %pts |
| Racing Socks, M (SO-R809-M) | 7 | 8 | -1 | -12.5% |
-9.6% |
Exponential | Worse by 2.9 %pts |
| Rear Brakes (RB-9231) | 43 | 45 | -2 | -4.4% |
2.3% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 2.2 %pts |
| Rear Derailleur (RD-2308) | 419 | 467 | -48 | -10.3% |
-21.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 10.7 %pts |
| Road Bottle Cage (BC-R205) | 17 | 17 | 0 | 0.0% |
-3.0% |
Exponential | Better by 3.0 %pts |
| Road Tire Tube (TT-R982) | 26 | 22 | 4 | 18.2% |
-9.5% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 8.7 %pts |
| Road-150 Red, 44 (BK-R93R-44) | 11 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% |
26.3% |
Exponential | Worse by 11.2 %pts |
| Road-150 Red, 48 (BK-R93R-48) | 24 | 20 | 4 | 20.0% |
24.1% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 4.1 %pts |
| Road-150 Red, 52 (BK-R93R-52) | 30 | 28 | 2 | 7.1% |
25.6% |
Regression | Better by 18.4 %pts |
| Road-150 Red, 56 (BK-R93R-56) | 25 | 25 | 0 | 0.0% |
-26.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 26.7 %pts |
| Road-150 Red, 62 (BK-R93R-62) | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% |
-25.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 25.7 %pts |
| Road-250 Black, 44 (BK-R89B-44) | 248 | 171 | 77 | 45.0% |
23.7% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 21.3 %pts |
| Road-250 Black, 48 (BK-R89B-48) | 78 | 65 | 13 | 20.0% |
26.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 6.8 %pts |
| Road-250 Black, 52 (BK-R89B-52) | 26 | 28 | -2 | -7.1% |
-20.5% |
Exponential | Better by 13.3 %pts |
| Road-250 Black, 58 (BK-R89B-58) | 22 | 19 | 3 | 15.8% |
23.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 7.5 %pts |
| Road-250 Red, 44 (BK-R89R-44) | 444 | 358 | 86 | 24.0% |
34.7% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 10.7 %pts |
| Road-250 Red, 48 (BK-R89R-48) | 273 | 257 | 16 | 6.2% |
9.5% |
Regression | Better by 3.3 %pts |
| Road-250 Red, 52 (BK-R89R-52) | 30 | 25 | 5 | 20.0% |
6.4% |
Regression | Worse by 13.6 %pts |
| Road-250 Red, 58 (BK-R89R-58) | 20 | 23 | -3 | -13.0% |
-29.7% |
Regression | Better by 16.7 %pts |
| Road-350-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R79Y-40) | 10 | 11 | -1 | -9.1% |
-16.2% |
Regression | Better by 7.1 %pts |
| Road-350-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R79Y-42) | 39 | 39 | 0 | 0.0% |
4.3% |
Regression | Better by 4.3 %pts |
| Road-350-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R79Y-44) | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% |
16.9% |
Exponential | Better by 16.9 %pts |
| Road-350-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R79Y-48) | 21 | 21 | 0 | 0.0% |
2.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 2.8 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 44 (BK-R68R-44) | 38 | 31 | 7 | 22.6% |
20.1% |
Regression | Worse by 2.5 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 48 (BK-R68R-48) | 365 | 374 | -9 | -2.4% |
-19.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 17.5 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 52 (BK-R68R-52) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-2.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 2.9 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 58 (BK-R68R-58) | 365 | 230 | 135 | 58.7% |
26.4% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 32.3 %pts |
| Road-450 Red, 60 (BK-R68R-60) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
38.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 38.5 %pts |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 38 (BK-R64Y-38) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
-70.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 70.4 %pts |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R64Y-40) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
-7.6% |
Regression | Better by 7.6 %pts |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R64Y-42) | 13 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% |
15.0% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 29.5 %pts |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R64Y-44) | 17 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% |
14.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Worse by 7.1 %pts |
| Road-550-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R64Y-48) | 20 | 19 | 1 | 5.3% |
-12.8% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 7.5 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 44 (BK-R50B-44) | 14 | 14 | 0 | 0.0% |
-8.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 8.6 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 48 (BK-R50B-48) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
0.0% |
Regression | The same |
| Road-650 Black, 52 (BK-R50B-52) | 16 | 16 | 0 | 0.0% |
-8.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 8.6 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 58 (BK-R50B-58) | 19 | 20 | -1 | -5.0% |
-41.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 36.4 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 60 (BK-R50B-60) | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% |
-3.7% |
Exponential | Better by 3.7 %pts |
| Road-650 Black, 62 (BK-R50B-62) | 32 | 24 | 8 | 33.3% |
22.2% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 11.1 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 44 (BK-R50R-44) | 18 | 16 | 2 | 12.5% |
-9.6% |
Exponential | Worse by 2.9 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 48 (BK-R50R-48) | 13 | 15 | -2 | -13.3% |
-36.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 23.1 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 52 (BK-R50R-52) | 192 | 214 | -22 | -10.3% |
-23.2% |
Regression | Better by 13.0 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 58 (BK-R50R-58) | 26 | 26 | 0 | 0.0% |
-12.8% |
HoltWinters | Better by 12.8 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 60 (BK-R50R-60) | 24 | 25 | -1 | -4.0% |
4.6% |
Exponential | Better by 0.6 %pts |
| Road-650 Red, 62 (BK-R50R-62) | 145 | 157 | -12 | -7.6% |
-10.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 3.1 %pts |
| Road-750 Black, 44 (BK-R19B-44) | 27 | 27 | 0 | 0.0% |
-5.6% |
Regression | Better by 5.6 %pts |
| Road-750 Black, 48 (BK-R19B-48) | 12 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% |
53.8% |
Regression | Better by 20.5 %pts |
| Road-750 Black, 52 (BK-R19B-52) | 27 | 28 | -1 | -3.6% |
-21.3% |
HoltWinters | Better by 17.7 %pts |
| Road-750 Black, 58 (BK-R19B-58) | 11 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% |
27.0% |
Regression | Better by 17.0 %pts |
| Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, L (SJ-0194-L) | 24 | 21 | 3 | 14.3% |
18.3% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 4.0 %pts |
| Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, M (SJ-0194-M) | 13 | 14 | -1 | -7.1% |
11.4% |
HoltWinters | Better by 4.3 %pts |
| Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, S (SJ-0194-S) | 190 | 222 | -32 | -14.4% |
-16.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 2.4 %pts |
| Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, XL (SJ-0194-X) | 45 | 44 | 1 | 2.3% |
-20.2% |
Regression | Better by 17.9 %pts |
| Sport-100 Helmet, Black (HL-U509) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
26.2% |
HoltWinters | Better by 26.2 %pts |
| Sport-100 Helmet, Blue (HL-U509-B) | 15 | 15 | 0 | 0.0% |
-23.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 23.4 %pts |
| Sport-100 Helmet, Red (HL-U509-R) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
14.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 14.4 %pts |
| Taillights - Battery-Powered (LT-T990) | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% |
38.0% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 38.0 %pts |
| Touring Front Wheel (FW-T905) | 14 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% |
40.5% |
HoltWinters | Better by 13.2 %pts |
| Touring Pedal (PD-T852) | 33 | 34 | -1 | -2.9% |
-31.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 28.8 %pts |
| Touring Rear Wheel (RW-T905) | 451 | 357 | 94 | 26.3% |
29.8% |
Regression | Better by 3.5 %pts |
| Touring Tire (TI-T723) | 9 | 10 | -1 | -10.0% |
-4.4% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 5.6 %pts |
| Touring Tire Tube (TT-T092) | 19 | 18 | 1 | 5.6% |
4.2% |
Regression | Worse by 1.3 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Blue, 46 (BK-T79U-46) | 13 | 14 | -1 | -7.1% |
-5.8% |
Exponential | Worse by 1.4 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Blue, 50 (BK-T79U-50) | 18 | 21 | -3 | -14.3% |
-17.4% |
Regression | Better by 3.1 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Blue, 54 (BK-T79U-54) | 17 | 17 | 0 | 0.0% |
7.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 7.6 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Blue, 60 (BK-T79U-60) | 310 | 365 | -55 | -15.1% |
-17.3% |
Regression | Better by 2.2 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Yellow, 46 (BK-T79Y-46) | 21 | 23 | -2 | -8.7% |
-33.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 25.0 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T79Y-50) | 17 | 17 | 0 | 0.0% |
-4.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 4.9 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T79Y-54) | 237 | 234 | 3 | 1.3% |
-24.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 23.1 %pts |
| Touring-1000 Yellow, 60 (BK-T79Y-60) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
18.3% |
Regression | Better by 18.3 %pts |
| Touring-2000 Blue, 46 (BK-T44U-46) | 7 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% |
40.6% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 0.6 %pts |
| Touring-2000 Blue, 50 (BK-T44U-50) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
7.1% |
Regression | Better by 7.1 %pts |
| Touring-2000 Blue, 54 (BK-T44U-54) | 15 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% |
21.2% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 3.8 %pts |
| Touring-2000 Blue, 60 (BK-T44U-60) | 7 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% |
-13.0% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 3.6 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 44 (BK-T18U-44) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
26.9% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 26.9 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 50 (BK-T18U-50) | 18 | 19 | -1 | -5.3% |
-1.1% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 4.2 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 54 (BK-T18U-54) | 34 | 29 | 5 | 17.2% |
0.2% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 17.0 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 58 (BK-T18U-58) | 17 | 17 | 0 | 0.0% |
8.2% |
Exponential | Better by 8.2 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Blue, 62 (BK-T18U-62) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
-29.8% |
Exponential | Better by 29.8 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 44 (BK-T18Y-44) | 459 | 407 | 52 | 12.8% |
20.6% |
HoltWinters | Better by 7.8 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T18Y-50) | 236 | 241 | -5 | -2.1% |
21.7% |
HoltWinters | Better by 19.6 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T18Y-54) | 147 | 117 | 30 | 25.6% |
18.1% |
HoltWinters | Worse by 7.5 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 58 (BK-T18Y-58) | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% |
-19.4% |
LY+YOY Growth% | Better by 19.4 %pts |
| Touring-3000 Yellow, 62 (BK-T18Y-62) | 364 | 257 | 107 | 41.6% |
45.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 3.5 %pts |
| Touring-Panniers, Large (PA-T100) | 187 | 174 | 13 | 7.5% |
-18.3% |
Regression | Better by 10.8 %pts |
| Water Bottle - 30 oz. (WB-H098) | 18 | 20 | -2 | -10.0% |
-6.1% |
Exponential | Worse by 3.9 %pts |
| Women's Mountain Shorts, L (SH-W890-L) | 18 | 13 | 5 | 38.5% |
50.0% |
HoltWinters | Better by 11.5 %pts |
| Women's Mountain Shorts, M (SH-W890-M) | 36 | 32 | 4 | 12.5% |
3.5% |
Regression | Worse by 9.0 %pts |
| Women's Mountain Shorts, S (SH-W890-S) | 21 | 21 | 0 | 0.0% |
-11.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 11.1 %pts |
| Women's Tights, L (TG-W091-L) | 40 | 33 | 7 | 21.2% |
-21.9% |
HoltWinters | Better by 0.6 %pts |
| Women's Tights, M (TG-W091-M) | 204 | 184 | 20 | 10.9% |
9.4% |
Regression | Worse by 1.4 %pts |
| Women's Tights, S (TG-W091-S) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
17.1% |
HoltWinters | Better by 17.1 %pts |
| Total | 20,365 | 19,141 | 1,224 | 6.4% | 4.3% | Better in 206 out of 299 items (68.9%) |
| Weighted Average % Error | 14.2% | Weighted Average % Error (Alt) | 12.9% | Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) | 12.3% | Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) | 9.4 |
| Weighted Average % Error-Statistics | 19.1% | Weighted Average % Error (Alt)-Statistics | 2.7% | Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)-Statistics | 20.7% | Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)-Statistics | 12.2 |
| Forecaster | Statistics | |
|---|---|---|
| Forecast | 123,886 | 118,342 |
| Actual | 121,159 | 121,159 |
| Variance | 2,727 | -2,817 |
| Percent Error | 2.3% | -2.3% |
| Weighted Average % Error | 15.9% | 23.1% |
| Weighted Average % Error (Alt) | 14.6% | 20.9% |
| Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) | 10.2% | 23.8% |
| Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) | 7 | 11 |
Accuracy Band |
Over Forecasted (i.e. Forecast > Actual) |
Under Forecasted (i.e. Forecast < Actual) |
Total |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Count |
Cum Count |
Percent |
Cum % |
Count |
Cum Count |
Percent |
Cum % |
Count |
Cum Count |
Percent |
Cum % |
|
| 0 - 5% | 85 | 85 | 3.3% |
3.3% |
1201 | 1201 | 46.5% |
46.5% |
1286 | 1286 | 49.7% |
49.7% |
| 5 - 10% | 163 | 248 | 6.3% |
9.6% |
235 | 1436 | 9.1% |
55.6% |
398 | 1684 | 15.4% |
65.1% |
| 10 - 15% | 156 | 404 | 6.0% |
15.6% |
136 | 1572 | 5.3% |
60.8% |
292 | 1976 | 11.3% |
76.4% |
| 15 - 20% | 104 | 508 | 4.0% |
19.7% |
49 | 1621 | 1.9% |
62.7% |
153 | 2129 | 5.9% |
82.4% |
| 20 - 25% | 90 | 598 | 3.5% |
23.1% |
18 | 1639 | 0.7% |
63.4% |
108 | 2237 | 4.2% |
86.5% |
| > 25% | 312 | 910 | 12.1% |
35.2% |
36 | 1675 | 1.4% |
64.8% |
348 | 2585 | 13.5% |
100.0% |