Prophecy Accuracy Analysis - Database 'AW Cycling on SQL Server'

Quantity

Statistical forecasts based on history to Jun 2015. Best algorithm based on test period range of 6 periods.

11 December 2014

Specialty Bike Shop(FR) - Forecast in 4 - Aug
 ForecastActualVariancePercent ErrorStats Pct ErrorBest AlgorithmHuman vs. Statistics
All-Purpose Bike Stand (ST-1401)1061042

1.9%

18.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 16.5 %pts
AWC Logo Cap (CA-1098)125132-7

-5.3%

-25.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 20.0 %pts
Bike Wash - Dissolver (CL-9009)1112-1

-8.3%

-6.2%

RegressionWorse by 2.1 %pts
Cable Lock (LO-C100)1719-2

-10.5%

0.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 9.8 %pts
Chain (CH-0234)220

0.0%

-50.0%

RegressionBetter by 50.0 %pts
Classic Vest, L (VE-C304-L)1619-3

-15.8%

-31.8%

RegressionBetter by 16.0 %pts
Classic Vest, M (VE-C304-M)1617-1

-5.9%

-2.1%

HoltWintersWorse by 3.8 %pts
Classic Vest, S (VE-C304-S)440

0.0%

16.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 16.3 %pts
Fender Set - Mountain (FE-6654)330

0.0%

7.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 7.1 %pts
Front Brakes (FB-9873)880

0.0%

6.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 6.0 %pts
Front Derailleur (FD-2342)1718-1

-5.6%

-9.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 3.6 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, L (GL-F110-L)35323

9.4%

6.7%

RegressionWorse by 2.7 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, S (GL-F110-S)330

0.0%

23.0%

RegressionBetter by 23.0 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, L (GL-H102-L)862

33.3%

23.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 9.5 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, M (GL-H102-M)26022733

14.5%

-39.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 25.0 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, S (GL-H102-S)12111

9.1%

-4.7%

HoltWintersWorse by 4.4 %pts
Headlights - Dual-Beam (LT-H902)26206

30.0%

19.1%

RegressionWorse by 10.9 %pts
Headlights - Weatherproof (LT-H903)440

0.0%

-33.8%

ExponentialBetter by 33.8 %pts
Hitch Rack - 4-Bike (RA-H123)440

0.0%

-36.8%

RegressionBetter by 36.8 %pts
HL Bottom Bracket (BB-9108)220

0.0%

-50.0%

RegressionBetter by 50.0 %pts
HL Crankset (CS-9183)110

0.0%

-100.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 100.0 %pts
HL Fork (FK-9939)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
HL Headset (HS-3479)440

0.0%

5.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 5.9 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M94B-38)550

0.0%

-31.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 31.7 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M94B-42)761

16.7%

20.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 3.6 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M94B-44)990

0.0%

-12.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 12.8 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 46 (FR-M94B-46)440

0.0%

37.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 37.1 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M94B-48)1418-4

-22.2%

-17.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 4.9 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 38 (FR-M94S-38)880

0.0%

-18.2%

RegressionBetter by 18.2 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M94S-42)330

0.0%

-0.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 0.6 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M94S-44)220

0.0%

-46.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 46.9 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 46 (FR-M94S-46)110

0.0%

16.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 16.7 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M94S-52)440

0.0%

-11.1%

ExponentialBetter by 11.1 %pts
HL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M928)110

0.0%

128.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 128.8 %pts
HL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M918)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
HL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M928)1183

37.5%

72.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 34.8 %pts
HL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M940)981

12.5%

-18.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 5.9 %pts
HL Mountain Tire (TI-M823)1314-1

-7.1%

-28.9%

RegressionBetter by 21.8 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R92B-44)20200

0.0%

-3.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 3.4 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R92B-48)20182

11.1%

17.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 6.3 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R92B-52)22116556

33.9%

-11.4%

HoltWintersWorse by 22.5 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R92B-58)17170

0.0%

-25.1%

ExponentialBetter by 25.1 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R92B-62)330

0.0%

-48.0%

ExponentialBetter by 48.0 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R92R-44)6668-2

-2.9%

-9.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 6.9 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R92R-48)440

0.0%

-1.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 1.4 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R92R-52)110

0.0%

12.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 12.6 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 56 (FR-R92R-56)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
HL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R92R-58)12111

9.1%

13.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 4.1 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R92R-62)2031976

3.0%

-41.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 37.9 %pts
HL Road Front Wheel (FW-R820)330

0.0%

28.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 28.9 %pts
HL Road Handlebars (HB-R956)330

0.0%

-1.0%

ExponentialBetter by 1.0 %pts
HL Road Pedal (PD-R853)330

0.0%

9.9%

RegressionBetter by 9.9 %pts
HL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R820)440

0.0%

12.4%

RegressionBetter by 12.4 %pts
HL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R995)15114

36.4%

36.9%

RegressionBetter by 0.5 %pts
HL Road Tire (TI-R982)440

0.0%

19.0%

ExponentialBetter by 19.0 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 46 (FR-T98U-46)440

0.0%

-28.2%

RegressionBetter by 28.2 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T98U-50)220

0.0%

54.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 54.6 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T98U-54)220

0.0%

11.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 11.7 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 60 (FR-T98U-60)15150

0.0%

11.7%

RegressionBetter by 11.7 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 46 (FR-T98Y-46)92866

7.0%

29.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 22.8 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T98Y-50)220

0.0%

6.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 6.2 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T98Y-54)52502

4.0%

5.8%

RegressionBetter by 1.8 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 60 (FR-T98Y-60)10100

0.0%

46.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 46.1 %pts
HL Touring Handlebars (HB-T928)220

0.0%

87.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 87.5 %pts
HL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T924)220

0.0%

-8.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 8.6 %pts
Hydration Pack - 70 oz. (HY-1023-70)220

0.0%

26.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 26.2 %pts
LL Bottom Bracket (BB-7421)220

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
LL Crankset (CS-4759)17143

21.4%

-30.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 8.8 %pts
LL Fork (FK-1639)1619-3

-15.8%

-49.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 33.3 %pts
LL Headset (HS-0296)440

0.0%

35.7%

ExponentialBetter by 35.7 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M21B-40)330

0.0%

-1.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 1.6 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M21B-42)220

0.0%

4.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 4.3 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M21B-48)14104

40.0%

37.5%

RegressionWorse by 2.5 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 52 (FR-M21B-52)44359

25.7%

13.3%

HoltWintersWorse by 12.4 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 40 (FR-M21S-40)2931-2

-6.5%

-3.1%

HoltWintersWorse by 3.3 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M21S-42)16124

33.3%

26.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 6.6 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M21S-44)25223

13.6%

9.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 3.8 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M21S-48)330

0.0%

84.9%

RegressionBetter by 84.9 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 52 (FR-M21S-52)24240

0.0%

25.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 25.7 %pts
LL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M423)440

0.0%

-4.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 4.4 %pts
LL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M243)330

0.0%

-28.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 28.2 %pts
LL Mountain Pedal (PD-M282)1112-1

-8.3%

25.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 16.7 %pts
LL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M423)89-1

-11.1%

-49.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 38.4 %pts
LL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M236)1165

83.3%

84.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 1.4 %pts
LL Mountain Tire (TI-M267)440

0.0%

-23.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 23.3 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R38B-48)981

12.5%

7.4%

RegressionWorse by 5.1 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R38B-52)11110

0.0%

1.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 1.6 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R38B-58)330

0.0%

2.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 2.9 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 60 (FR-R38B-60)11110

0.0%

-1.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 1.7 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R38B-62)220

0.0%

-23.8%

RegressionBetter by 23.8 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R38R-44)38380

0.0%

-2.8%

RegressionBetter by 2.8 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R38R-48)110

0.0%

23.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 23.1 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R38R-52)1618-2

-11.1%

-12.6%

ExponentialBetter by 1.5 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R38R-58)32239

39.1%

39.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 0.4 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R38R-60)57543

5.6%

-8.1%

RegressionBetter by 2.6 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R38R-62)1314-1

-7.1%

-37.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 30.6 %pts
LL Road Front Wheel (FW-R623)12120

0.0%

2.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 2.3 %pts
LL Road Handlebars (HB-R504)330

0.0%

-2.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 2.9 %pts
LL Road Pedal (PD-R347)220

0.0%

21.4%

RegressionBetter by 21.4 %pts
LL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R623)770

0.0%

-18.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 18.6 %pts
LL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R581)5354-1

-1.9%

-14.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 13.0 %pts
LL Road Tire (TI-R092)220

0.0%

12.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 12.4 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 44 (FR-T67U-44)1314-1

-7.1%

-10.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 2.8 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T67U-50)330

0.0%

-2.5%

ExponentialBetter by 2.5 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T67U-54)220

0.0%

-18.0%

RegressionBetter by 18.0 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 58 (FR-T67U-58)752

40.0%

45.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 5.7 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 62 (FR-T67U-62)110

0.0%

-4.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 4.0 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 44 (FR-T67Y-44)220

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T67Y-50)550

0.0%

6.8%

ExponentialBetter by 6.8 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T67Y-54)1661660

0.0%

-1.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 1.8 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 58 (FR-T67Y-58)14140

0.0%

-9.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 9.3 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 62 (FR-T67Y-62)220

0.0%

-23.9%

ExponentialBetter by 23.9 %pts
LL Touring Handlebars (HB-T721)110

0.0%

100.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 100.0 %pts
LL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T312)11110

0.0%

25.0%

RegressionBetter by 25.0 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, L (LJ-0192-L)14140

0.0%

11.3%

ExponentialBetter by 11.3 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, M (LJ-0192-M)1691690

0.0%

-10.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 10.9 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, S (LJ-0192-S)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, XL (LJ-0192-X)770

0.0%

8.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 8.7 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, L (SB-M891-L)220

0.0%

6.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 6.3 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, M (SB-M891-M)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Men's Bib-Shorts, S (SB-M891-S)17511362

54.9%

28.2%

HoltWintersWorse by 26.7 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, L (SH-M897-L)14140

0.0%

-20.0%

RegressionBetter by 20.0 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, M (SH-M897-M)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Men's Sports Shorts, S (SH-M897-S)2426-2

-7.7%

-3.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 4.0 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, XL (SH-M897-X)17161

6.3%

-12.8%

RegressionBetter by 6.6 %pts
Minipump (PU-0452)22202

10.0%

17.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 7.8 %pts
ML Bottom Bracket (BB-8107)139158-19

-12.0%

-27.4%

ExponentialBetter by 15.4 %pts
ML Crankset (CS-6583)11101

10.0%

27.0%

ExponentialBetter by 17.0 %pts
ML Fork (FK-5136)78-1

-12.5%

-4.3%

HoltWintersWorse by 8.2 %pts
ML Headset (HS-2451)990

0.0%

-6.5%

RegressionBetter by 6.5 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M63B-38)330

0.0%

-30.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 30.7 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M63B-40)963

50.0%

12.2%

HoltWintersWorse by 37.8 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M63B-44)110

0.0%

115.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 115.4 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M63B-48)36333

9.1%

13.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 4.2 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 38 (FR-M63S-38)1091

11.1%

93.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 82.3 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 40 (FR-M63S-40)11110

0.0%

6.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 6.6 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 42 (FR-M63S-42)220

0.0%

9.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 9.2 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 46 (FR-M63S-46)877017

24.3%

-0.1%

ExponentialWorse by 24.2 %pts
ML Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M762)110

0.0%

-22.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 22.4 %pts
ML Mountain Pedal (PD-M340)220

0.0%

-8.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 8.2 %pts
ML Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M798)330

0.0%

3.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 3.1 %pts
ML Mountain Tire (TI-M602)172181-9

-5.0%

20.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 15.9 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R72R-44)770

0.0%

-1.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 1.9 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R72R-48)5458-4

-6.9%

-11.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 4.2 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R72R-52)1401391

0.7%

30.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 29.5 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R72R-58)1920-1

-5.0%

-20.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 15.1 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 38 (FR-R72Y-38)220

0.0%

7.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 7.1 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 40 (FR-R72Y-40)880

0.0%

2.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 2.9 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 42 (FR-R72Y-42)220

0.0%

13.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 13.9 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 44 (FR-R72Y-44)138165-27

-16.4%

-17.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 1.0 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 48 (FR-R72Y-48)220

0.0%

-0.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 0.9 %pts
ML Road Front Wheel (FW-R762)29272

7.4%

-16.2%

RegressionBetter by 8.8 %pts
ML Road Handlebars (HB-R720)220

0.0%

40.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 40.9 %pts
ML Road Pedal (PD-R563)5153-2

-3.8%

-13.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 10.0 %pts
ML Road Rear Wheel (RW-R762)110

0.0%

-2.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 2.6 %pts
ML Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R908)330

0.0%

-13.9%

RegressionBetter by 13.9 %pts
ML Road Tire (TI-R628)981

12.5%

35.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 23.2 %pts
ML Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T762)110

0.0%

57.7%

RegressionBetter by 57.7 %pts
Mountain Bike Socks, M (SO-B909-M)330

0.0%

-44.6%

RegressionBetter by 44.6 %pts
Mountain Bottle Cage (BC-M005)15150

0.0%

-10.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 10.3 %pts
Mountain Pump (PU-M044)220

0.0%

-50.0%

RegressionBetter by 50.0 %pts
Mountain Tire Tube (TT-M928)880

0.0%

2.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 2.7 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 38 (BK-M82B-38)17134

30.8%

7.4%

ExponentialWorse by 23.3 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 42 (BK-M82B-42)21613086

66.2%

-7.9%

HoltWintersWorse by 58.3 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 44 (BK-M82B-44)440

0.0%

-33.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 33.2 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 48 (BK-M82B-48)11101

10.0%

-3.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 6.6 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 38 (BK-M82S-38)550

0.0%

-13.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 13.8 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 42 (BK-M82S-42)220

0.0%

26.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 26.1 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 44 (BK-M82S-44)440

0.0%

-39.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 39.2 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 48 (BK-M82S-48)330

0.0%

-70.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 70.0 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 38 (BK-M68B-38)11110

0.0%

-11.3%

RegressionBetter by 11.3 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 42 (BK-M68B-42)220

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Mountain-200 Black, 46 (BK-M68B-46)110

0.0%

46.1%

RegressionBetter by 46.1 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 38 (BK-M68S-38)78744

5.4%

0.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 5.4 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 46 (BK-M68S-46)1013-3

-23.1%

-37.4%

RegressionBetter by 14.3 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 38 (BK-M47B-38)972

28.6%

20.8%

RegressionWorse by 7.7 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 40 (BK-M47B-40)27261

3.8%

13.0%

RegressionBetter by 9.2 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 44 (BK-M47B-44)330

0.0%

7.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 7.0 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 48 (BK-M47B-48)1491490

0.0%

-2.6%

RegressionBetter by 2.6 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 38 (BK-M38S-38)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Mountain-400-W Silver, 40 (BK-M38S-40)207236-29

-12.3%

-10.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 1.5 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 42 (BK-M38S-42)11110

0.0%

-10.4%

ExponentialBetter by 10.4 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 46 (BK-M38S-46)17125

41.7%

35.6%

HoltWintersWorse by 6.1 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 40 (BK-M18B-40)211241-30

-12.4%

-11.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 0.8 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 44 (BK-M18B-44)48444

9.1%

3.3%

HoltWintersWorse by 5.8 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 48 (BK-M18B-48)40391

2.6%

-4.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 1.6 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 52 (BK-M18B-52)440

0.0%

-18.8%

RegressionBetter by 18.8 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 40 (BK-M18S-40)440

0.0%

-4.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 4.8 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 42 (BK-M18S-42)46451

2.2%

-6.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 4.7 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 44 (BK-M18S-44)14210339

37.9%

8.0%

HoltWintersWorse by 29.9 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 48 (BK-M18S-48)330

0.0%

21.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 21.4 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 52 (BK-M18S-52)330

0.0%

-9.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 9.5 %pts
Patch Kit/8 Patches (PK-7098)1141131

0.9%

-0.5%

HoltWintersWorse by 0.4 %pts
Racing Socks, M (SO-R809-M)330

0.0%

10.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 10.3 %pts
Rear Brakes (RB-9231)1617-1

-5.9%

22.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 16.4 %pts
Rear Derailleur (RD-2308)56560

0.0%

0.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 0.1 %pts
Road Bottle Cage (BC-R205)220

0.0%

-2.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 2.5 %pts
Road Tire Tube (TT-R982)1183

37.5%

28.6%

RegressionWorse by 8.9 %pts
Road-150 Red, 44 (BK-R93R-44)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Road-150 Red, 48 (BK-R93R-48)440

0.0%

-2.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 2.0 %pts
Road-150 Red, 52 (BK-R93R-52)550

0.0%

11.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 11.6 %pts
Road-150 Red, 56 (BK-R93R-56)220

0.0%

32.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 32.5 %pts
Road-150 Red, 62 (BK-R93R-62)550

0.0%

-22.1%

RegressionBetter by 22.1 %pts
Road-250 Black, 44 (BK-R89B-44)113120-7

-5.8%

22.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 16.9 %pts
Road-250 Black, 48 (BK-R89B-48)645311

20.8%

19.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 0.9 %pts
Road-250 Black, 52 (BK-R89B-52)1314-1

-7.1%

-34.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 27.1 %pts
Road-250 Black, 58 (BK-R89B-58)220

0.0%

88.0%

RegressionBetter by 88.0 %pts
Road-250 Red, 44 (BK-R89R-44)3132-1

-3.1%

-49.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 46.4 %pts
Road-250 Red, 48 (BK-R89R-48)16160

0.0%

-6.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 6.1 %pts
Road-250 Red, 52 (BK-R89R-52)440

0.0%

-3.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 3.5 %pts
Road-250 Red, 58 (BK-R89R-58)110

0.0%

163.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 163.2 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R79Y-40)15141

7.1%

-3.3%

ExponentialWorse by 3.8 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R79Y-42)440

0.0%

2.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 2.6 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R79Y-44)220

0.0%

-43.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 43.3 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R79Y-48)440

0.0%

-22.7%

ExponentialBetter by 22.7 %pts
Road-450 Red, 44 (BK-R68R-44)110

0.0%

108.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 108.0 %pts
Road-450 Red, 48 (BK-R68R-48)18153

20.0%

-20.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 0.2 %pts
Road-450 Red, 52 (BK-R68R-52)550

0.0%

-6.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 6.8 %pts
Road-450 Red, 58 (BK-R68R-58)2225-3

-12.0%

-17.9%

ExponentialBetter by 5.9 %pts
Road-450 Red, 60 (BK-R68R-60)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Road-550-W Yellow, 38 (BK-R64Y-38)440

0.0%

65.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 65.1 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R64Y-42)770

0.0%

-7.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 7.6 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R64Y-44)871

14.3%

-40.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 26.2 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R64Y-48)220

0.0%

-45.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 45.8 %pts
Road-650 Black, 44 (BK-R50B-44)220

0.0%

82.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 82.8 %pts
Road-650 Black, 48 (BK-R50B-48)220

0.0%

-9.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 9.6 %pts
Road-650 Black, 52 (BK-R50B-52)963

50.0%

5.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 45.0 %pts
Road-650 Black, 58 (BK-R50B-58)14113

27.3%

-1.3%

HoltWintersWorse by 26.0 %pts
Road-650 Black, 60 (BK-R50B-60)220

0.0%

-1.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 1.2 %pts
Road-650 Black, 62 (BK-R50B-62)880

0.0%

7.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 7.1 %pts
Road-650 Red, 44 (BK-R50R-44)330

0.0%

2.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 2.9 %pts
Road-650 Red, 48 (BK-R50R-48)110

0.0%

-9.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 9.6 %pts
Road-650 Red, 52 (BK-R50R-52)27261

3.8%

-12.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 8.9 %pts
Road-650 Red, 58 (BK-R50R-58)550

0.0%

-8.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 8.3 %pts
Road-650 Red, 60 (BK-R50R-60)990

0.0%

4.3%

RegressionBetter by 4.3 %pts
Road-650 Red, 62 (BK-R50R-62)224265-41

-15.5%

-22.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 6.7 %pts
Road-750 Black, 44 (BK-R19B-44)330

0.0%

46.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 46.4 %pts
Road-750 Black, 48 (BK-R19B-48)330

0.0%

0.0%

LY+YOY Growth%The same
Road-750 Black, 52 (BK-R19B-52)770

0.0%

-8.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 8.9 %pts
Road-750 Black, 58 (BK-R19B-58)13121

8.3%

-8.6%

ExponentialBetter by 0.2 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, L (SJ-0194-L)972

28.6%

55.4%

ExponentialBetter by 26.9 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, M (SJ-0194-M)660

0.0%

-18.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 18.1 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, S (SJ-0194-S)166183-17

-9.3%

-10.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 1.2 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, XL (SJ-0194-X)1416-2

-12.5%

7.3%

ExponentialWorse by 5.2 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Black (HL-U509)660

0.0%

-24.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 24.3 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Blue (HL-U509-B)550

0.0%

-28.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 28.3 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Red (HL-U509-R)1091

11.1%

12.1%

ExponentialBetter by 1.0 %pts
Taillights - Battery-Powered (LT-T990)15105

50.0%

137.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 87.0 %pts
Touring Front Wheel (FW-T905)1112-1

-8.3%

26.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 18.2 %pts
Touring Pedal (PD-T852)220

0.0%

28.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 28.4 %pts
Touring Rear Wheel (RW-T905)49445

11.4%

-2.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 9.0 %pts
Touring Tire (TI-T723)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Touring Tire Tube (TT-T092)11110

0.0%

56.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 56.2 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 50 (BK-T79U-50)12120

0.0%

7.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 7.1 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 54 (BK-T79U-54)110

0.0%

6.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 6.7 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 60 (BK-T79U-60)3739-2

-5.1%

-5.1%

RegressionWorse by 0.1 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 46 (BK-T79Y-46)660

0.0%

52.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 52.7 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T79Y-50)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Touring-1000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T79Y-54)79790

0.0%

-6.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 6.6 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 60 (BK-T79Y-60)220

0.0%

-50.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 50.9 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 46 (BK-T44U-46)220

0.0%

12.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 12.5 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 50 (BK-T44U-50)440

0.0%

25.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 25.5 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 54 (BK-T44U-54)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Touring-2000 Blue, 60 (BK-T44U-60)972

28.6%

5.9%

HoltWintersWorse by 22.6 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 44 (BK-T18U-44)541

25.0%

11.5%

ExponentialWorse by 13.5 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 50 (BK-T18U-50)1415-1

-6.7%

0.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 6.2 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 54 (BK-T18U-54)330

0.0%

8.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 8.4 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 58 (BK-T18U-58)220

0.0%

-40.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 40.5 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 62 (BK-T18U-62)660

0.0%

-51.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 51.2 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 44 (BK-T18Y-44)181239-58

-24.3%

-24.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 0.6 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T18Y-50)58517

13.7%

-6.9%

HoltWintersWorse by 6.8 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T18Y-54)23203

15.0%

46.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 31.9 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 58 (BK-T18Y-58)853

60.0%

121.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 61.2 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 62 (BK-T18Y-62)30264

15.4%

42.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 26.6 %pts
Touring-Panniers, Large (PA-T100)4244-2

-4.5%

11.5%

RegressionBetter by 7.0 %pts
Water Bottle - 30 oz. (WB-H098)78-1

-12.5%

-41.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 29.3 %pts
Women's Mountain Shorts, M (SH-W890-M)1192

22.2%

55.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 33.7 %pts
Women's Mountain Shorts, S (SH-W890-S)220

0.0%

23.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 23.5 %pts
Women's Tights, L (TG-W091-L)17011654

46.6%

53.4%

ExponentialBetter by 6.8 %pts
Women's Tights, M (TG-W091-M)27261

3.8%

-10.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 6.5 %pts
Women's Tights, S (TG-W091-S)440

0.0%

6.0%

RegressionBetter by 6.0 %pts
Total6,9766,7432333.5%-3.6% Better in 239 out of 299 items (79.9%)
Weighted Average % Error12.3%Weighted Average % Error (Alt)11.4%Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)6.9%Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)3.0
Weighted Average % Error-Statistics18.3%Weighted Average % Error (Alt)-Statistics17.0%Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)-Statistics22.6%Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)-Statistics4.1

Value Added Reseller(FR) - Forecast in 4 - Aug
 ForecastActualVariancePercent ErrorStats Pct ErrorBest AlgorithmHuman vs. Statistics
All-Purpose Bike Stand (ST-1401)40391

2.6%

0.5%

HoltWintersWorse by 2.0 %pts
AWC Logo Cap (CA-1098)5657-1

-1.8%

9.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 8.0 %pts
Bike Wash - Dissolver (CL-9009)1517-2

-11.8%

-13.4%

RegressionBetter by 1.6 %pts
Cable Lock (LO-C100)440

0.0%

13.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 13.7 %pts
Chain (CH-0234)990

0.0%

17.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 17.2 %pts
Classic Vest, L (VE-C304-L)16133

23.1%

19.0%

HoltWintersWorse by 4.1 %pts
Classic Vest, M (VE-C304-M)871

14.3%

19.9%

RegressionBetter by 5.6 %pts
Classic Vest, S (VE-C304-S)770

0.0%

-3.4%

ExponentialBetter by 3.4 %pts
Fender Set - Mountain (FE-6654)220

0.0%

17.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 17.5 %pts
Front Brakes (FB-9873)110

0.0%

-7.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 7.1 %pts
Front Derailleur (FD-2342)972

28.6%

30.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 1.8 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, L (GL-F110-L)235270-35

-13.0%

21.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 8.1 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, S (GL-F110-S)642

50.0%

17.6%

HoltWintersWorse by 32.4 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, L (GL-H102-L)1213-1

-7.7%

-36.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 28.8 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, M (GL-H102-M)123127-4

-3.1%

-45.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 41.8 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, S (GL-H102-S)24018258

31.9%

47.8%

RegressionBetter by 15.9 %pts
Headlights - Dual-Beam (LT-H902)58526

11.5%

10.7%

RegressionWorse by 0.8 %pts
Headlights - Weatherproof (LT-H903)770

0.0%

-5.9%

RegressionBetter by 5.9 %pts
Hitch Rack - 4-Bike (RA-H123)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
HL Bottom Bracket (BB-9108)110

0.0%

-100.0%

RegressionBetter by 100.0 %pts
HL Crankset (CS-9183)1011-1

-9.1%

-18.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 9.1 %pts
HL Fork (FK-9939)880

0.0%

-29.3%

RegressionBetter by 29.3 %pts
HL Headset (HS-3479)981

12.5%

37.3%

ExponentialBetter by 24.8 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M94B-38)110

0.0%

170.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 170.0 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M94B-42)660

0.0%

14.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 14.5 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M94B-44)220

0.0%

62.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 62.5 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 46 (FR-M94B-46)541

25.0%

13.6%

HoltWintersWorse by 11.4 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M94B-48)440

0.0%

-17.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 17.3 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 38 (FR-M94S-38)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M94S-42)220

0.0%

4.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 4.8 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M94S-44)110

0.0%

-37.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 37.0 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 46 (FR-M94S-46)440

0.0%

19.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 19.6 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M94S-52)220

0.0%

-0.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 0.7 %pts
HL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M928)15150

0.0%

-42.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 42.6 %pts
HL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M918)972

28.6%

23.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 4.8 %pts
HL Mountain Pedal (PD-M562)440

0.0%

2.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 2.3 %pts
HL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M928)220

0.0%

160.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 160.3 %pts
HL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M940)220

0.0%

-0.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 0.2 %pts
HL Mountain Tire (TI-M823)110

0.0%

111.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 111.1 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R92B-44)157179-22

-12.3%

-43.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 31.3 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R92B-48)13711819

16.1%

6.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 9.9 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R92B-52)20614462

43.1%

50.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 7.3 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R92B-62)862

33.3%

44.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 11.2 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R92R-44)24823216

6.9%

2.3%

HoltWintersWorse by 4.6 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R92R-48)11110

0.0%

-12.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 12.2 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R92R-52)220

0.0%

-33.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 33.9 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 56 (FR-R92R-56)220

0.0%

0.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 0.6 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R92R-58)330

0.0%

-26.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 26.9 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R92R-62)453510

28.6%

40.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 11.7 %pts
HL Road Front Wheel (FW-R820)1394

44.4%

-5.9%

HoltWintersWorse by 38.6 %pts
HL Road Pedal (PD-R853)1112-1

-8.3%

-33.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 25.3 %pts
HL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R820)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
HL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R995)1213-1

-7.7%

-18.5%

ExponentialBetter by 10.8 %pts
HL Road Tire (TI-R982)11110

0.0%

-7.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 7.4 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 46 (FR-T98U-46)440

0.0%

2.1%

ExponentialBetter by 2.1 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T98U-50)770

0.0%

7.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 7.7 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T98U-54)220

0.0%

-72.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 72.0 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 60 (FR-T98U-60)193225-32

-14.2%

-13.7%

HoltWintersWorse by 0.5 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 46 (FR-T98Y-46)31292

6.9%

29.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 22.9 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T98Y-50)12111

9.1%

-5.0%

HoltWintersWorse by 4.1 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T98Y-54)3839-1

-2.6%

5.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 3.0 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 60 (FR-T98Y-60)110

0.0%

23.8%

RegressionBetter by 23.8 %pts
HL Touring Handlebars (HB-T928)330

0.0%

-6.6%

ExponentialBetter by 6.6 %pts
HL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T924)880

0.0%

-31.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 31.4 %pts
Hydration Pack - 70 oz. (HY-1023-70)220

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
LL Bottom Bracket (BB-7421)220

0.0%

-10.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 10.3 %pts
LL Crankset (CS-4759)440

0.0%

-9.1%

RegressionBetter by 9.1 %pts
LL Fork (FK-1639)110

0.0%

140.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 140.0 %pts
LL Headset (HS-0296)220

0.0%

-43.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 43.4 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M21B-40)110

0.0%

61.1%

ExponentialBetter by 61.1 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M21B-42)13121

8.3%

14.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 6.5 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M21B-44)11101

10.0%

-12.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 2.6 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 52 (FR-M21B-52)25250

0.0%

-13.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 13.9 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 40 (FR-M21S-40)660

0.0%

-47.6%

ExponentialBetter by 47.6 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M21S-42)440

0.0%

13.9%

ExponentialBetter by 13.9 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M21S-44)64604

6.7%

13.1%

RegressionBetter by 6.5 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 52 (FR-M21S-52)159171-12

-7.0%

-19.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 12.0 %pts
LL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M423)110

0.0%

-35.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 35.3 %pts
LL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M243)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
LL Mountain Pedal (PD-M282)880

0.0%

10.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 10.3 %pts
LL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M423)220

0.0%

-29.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 29.2 %pts
LL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M236)220

0.0%

39.9%

RegressionBetter by 39.9 %pts
LL Mountain Tire (TI-M267)440

0.0%

1.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 1.5 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R38B-44)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
LL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R38B-48)13103

30.0%

79.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 49.9 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R38B-52)220

0.0%

62.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 62.5 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R38B-58)330

0.0%

-3.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 3.0 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 60 (FR-R38B-60)651

20.0%

23.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 3.7 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R38B-62)330

0.0%

-35.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 35.7 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R38R-44)16614917

11.4%

25.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 14.0 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R38R-48)330

0.0%

15.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 15.8 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R38R-52)220

0.0%

17.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 17.4 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R38R-58)15514312

8.4%

2.6%

RegressionWorse by 5.8 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R38R-60)256355-99

-27.9%

-40.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 13.0 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R38R-62)440

0.0%

0.0%

LY+YOY Growth%The same
LL Road Front Wheel (FW-R623)330

0.0%

-23.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 23.1 %pts
LL Road Handlebars (HB-R504)440

0.0%

-34.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 34.5 %pts
LL Road Pedal (PD-R347)330

0.0%

4.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 4.1 %pts
LL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R623)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
LL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R581)69690

0.0%

-10.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 10.5 %pts
LL Road Tire (TI-R092)220

0.0%

-37.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 37.0 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T67U-50)330

0.0%

-0.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 0.0 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T67U-54)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 58 (FR-T67U-58)220

0.0%

8.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 8.3 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 62 (FR-T67U-62)660

0.0%

10.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 10.1 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 44 (FR-T67Y-44)220

0.0%

5.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 5.9 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T67Y-50)110

0.0%

0.0%

LY+YOY Growth%The same
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T67Y-54)111125-14

-11.2%

-17.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 6.4 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 58 (FR-T67Y-58)15150

0.0%

-23.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 23.0 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 62 (FR-T67Y-62)220

0.0%

-29.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 29.4 %pts
LL Touring Handlebars (HB-T721)220

0.0%

-44.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 44.3 %pts
LL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T312)330

0.0%

-46.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 46.7 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, L (LJ-0192-L)220

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, M (LJ-0192-M)7778-1

-1.3%

-3.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 2.5 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, S (LJ-0192-S)660

0.0%

7.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 7.5 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, XL (LJ-0192-X)16124

33.3%

33.1%

ExponentialWorse by 0.3 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, L (SB-M891-L)330

0.0%

-29.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 29.0 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, M (SB-M891-M)853

60.0%

58.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 1.6 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, S (SB-M891-S)330

0.0%

20.9%

ExponentialBetter by 20.9 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, L (SH-M897-L)110

0.0%

7.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 7.1 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, M (SH-M897-M)330

0.0%

-8.3%

RegressionBetter by 8.3 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, S (SH-M897-S)14313310

7.5%

12.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 4.6 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, XL (SH-M897-X)220

0.0%

48.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 48.5 %pts
Minipump (PU-0452)41392

5.1%

-0.7%

ExponentialWorse by 4.4 %pts
ML Bottom Bracket (BB-8107)56497

14.3%

2.2%

RegressionWorse by 12.0 %pts
ML Crankset (CS-6583)440

0.0%

4.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 4.4 %pts
ML Fork (FK-5136)1091

11.1%

15.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 4.2 %pts
ML Headset (HS-2451)330

0.0%

10.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 10.3 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M63B-38)220

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M63B-40)660

0.0%

1.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 1.6 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M63B-44)110

0.0%

159.1%

RegressionBetter by 159.1 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M63B-48)22217448

27.6%

-34.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 7.0 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 38 (FR-M63S-38)1112-1

-8.3%

-53.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 45.6 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 40 (FR-M63S-40)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 42 (FR-M63S-42)12120

0.0%

-5.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 5.2 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 46 (FR-M63S-46)147152-5

-3.3%

-36.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 33.0 %pts
ML Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M762)220

0.0%

5.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 5.2 %pts
ML Mountain Handlebars (HB-M763)330

0.0%

-45.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 45.9 %pts
ML Mountain Pedal (PD-M340)110

0.0%

68.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 68.3 %pts
ML Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M762)1073

42.9%

77.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 34.3 %pts
ML Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M798)910-1

-10.0%

36.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 26.6 %pts
ML Mountain Tire (TI-M602)5859-1

-1.7%

-19.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 17.7 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R72R-44)550

0.0%

-0.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 0.3 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R72R-48)32320

0.0%

-20.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 20.6 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R72R-52)3839-1

-2.6%

-19.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 17.3 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R72R-58)14104

40.0%

33.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 6.9 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R72R-60)220

0.0%

10.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 10.7 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 38 (FR-R72Y-38)110

0.0%

353.1%

RegressionBetter by 353.1 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 40 (FR-R72Y-40)330

0.0%

4.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 4.3 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 42 (FR-R72Y-42)220

0.0%

3.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 3.5 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 44 (FR-R72Y-44)372710

37.0%

32.9%

ExponentialWorse by 4.2 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 48 (FR-R72Y-48)1619-3

-15.8%

7.5%

HoltWintersWorse by 8.3 %pts
ML Road Front Wheel (FW-R762)52520

0.0%

2.6%

ExponentialBetter by 2.6 %pts
ML Road Handlebars (HB-R720)17116

54.5%

87.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 33.3 %pts
ML Road Pedal (PD-R563)41401

2.5%

-2.4%

HoltWintersWorse by 0.1 %pts
ML Road Rear Wheel (RW-R762)440

0.0%

9.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 9.0 %pts
ML Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R908)880

0.0%

33.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 33.5 %pts
ML Road Tire (TI-R628)550

0.0%

3.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 3.3 %pts
ML Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T762)220

0.0%

-28.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 28.1 %pts
Mountain Bike Socks, L (SO-B909-L)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Mountain Bike Socks, M (SO-B909-M)880

0.0%

15.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 15.7 %pts
Mountain Bottle Cage (BC-M005)220

0.0%

71.1%

RegressionBetter by 71.1 %pts
Mountain Pump (PU-M044)10100

0.0%

-26.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 26.7 %pts
Mountain Tire Tube (TT-M928)440

0.0%

-30.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 30.5 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 38 (BK-M82B-38)660

0.0%

4.0%

RegressionBetter by 4.0 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 42 (BK-M82B-42)755124

47.1%

17.8%

HoltWintersWorse by 29.2 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 44 (BK-M82B-44)440

0.0%

16.6%

ExponentialBetter by 16.6 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 48 (BK-M82B-48)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Mountain-100 Silver, 38 (BK-M82S-38)440

0.0%

-19.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 19.1 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 42 (BK-M82S-42)10100

0.0%

15.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 15.7 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 44 (BK-M82S-44)220

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Mountain-100 Silver, 48 (BK-M82S-48)440

0.0%

5.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 5.2 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 38 (BK-M68B-38)110

0.0%

9.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 9.7 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 42 (BK-M68B-42)11110

0.0%

6.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 6.7 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 46 (BK-M68B-46)220

0.0%

-46.0%

RegressionBetter by 46.0 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 38 (BK-M68S-38)21183

16.7%

4.3%

ExponentialWorse by 12.4 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 42 (BK-M68S-42)330

0.0%

-44.5%

RegressionBetter by 44.5 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 46 (BK-M68S-46)220

0.0%

7.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 7.7 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 38 (BK-M47B-38)770

0.0%

32.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 32.3 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 40 (BK-M47B-40)26260

0.0%

20.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 20.3 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 44 (BK-M47B-44)330

0.0%

-23.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 23.3 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 48 (BK-M47B-48)213223-10

-4.5%

4.3%

ExponentialWorse by 0.1 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 38 (BK-M38S-38)330

0.0%

-28.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 28.1 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 40 (BK-M38S-40)1131112

1.8%

56.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 55.1 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 42 (BK-M38S-42)89-1

-11.1%

-14.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 3.0 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 46 (BK-M38S-46)532

66.7%

60.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 5.7 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 40 (BK-M18B-40)43403

7.5%

-2.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 4.9 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 42 (BK-M18B-42)220

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Mountain-500 Black, 44 (BK-M18B-44)117129-12

-9.3%

3.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 6.3 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 48 (BK-M18B-48)44404

10.0%

11.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 1.8 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 52 (BK-M18B-52)440

0.0%

8.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 8.3 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 40 (BK-M18S-40)651

20.0%

-3.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 16.3 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 42 (BK-M18S-42)147161-14

-8.7%

-25.6%

ExponentialBetter by 16.9 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 44 (BK-M18S-44)38371

2.7%

12.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 9.8 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 48 (BK-M18S-48)440

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Mountain-500 Silver, 52 (BK-M18S-52)17152

13.3%

22.2%

RegressionBetter by 8.9 %pts
Patch Kit/8 Patches (PK-7098)182190-8

-4.2%

9.9%

RegressionBetter by 5.7 %pts
Racing Socks, L (SO-R809-L)330

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Racing Socks, M (SO-R809-M)330

0.0%

-35.6%

RegressionBetter by 35.6 %pts
Rear Brakes (RB-9231)981

12.5%

-13.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 1.1 %pts
Rear Derailleur (RD-2308)116131-15

-11.5%

-12.6%

RegressionBetter by 1.2 %pts
Road Bottle Cage (BC-R205)220

0.0%

-52.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 52.6 %pts
Road Tire Tube (TT-R982)440

0.0%

-12.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 12.8 %pts
Road-150 Red, 44 (BK-R93R-44)220

0.0%

22.2%

RegressionBetter by 22.2 %pts
Road-150 Red, 52 (BK-R93R-52)1293

33.3%

35.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 1.7 %pts
Road-150 Red, 56 (BK-R93R-56)440

0.0%

-15.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 15.8 %pts
Road-150 Red, 62 (BK-R93R-62)550

0.0%

-27.0%

RegressionBetter by 27.0 %pts
Road-250 Black, 44 (BK-R89B-44)4547-2

-4.3%

-35.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 31.1 %pts
Road-250 Black, 48 (BK-R89B-48)33267

26.9%

5.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 21.3 %pts
Road-250 Black, 52 (BK-R89B-52)220

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Road-250 Black, 58 (BK-R89B-58)110

0.0%

49.7%

RegressionBetter by 49.7 %pts
Road-250 Red, 44 (BK-R89R-44)17116

54.5%

99.7%

RegressionBetter by 45.1 %pts
Road-250 Red, 48 (BK-R89R-48)237255-18

-7.1%

-22.7%

RegressionBetter by 15.7 %pts
Road-250 Red, 52 (BK-R89R-52)330

0.0%

-40.5%

ExponentialBetter by 40.5 %pts
Road-250 Red, 58 (BK-R89R-58)770

0.0%

-32.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 32.5 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R79Y-40)911-2

-18.2%

-46.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 28.0 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R79Y-42)330

0.0%

-4.6%

RegressionBetter by 4.6 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R79Y-44)220

0.0%

7.9%

RegressionBetter by 7.9 %pts
Road-450 Red, 48 (BK-R68R-48)16160

0.0%

-17.2%

RegressionBetter by 17.2 %pts
Road-450 Red, 52 (BK-R68R-52)330

0.0%

-38.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 38.1 %pts
Road-450 Red, 58 (BK-R68R-58)9295-3

-3.2%

12.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 9.0 %pts
Road-450 Red, 60 (BK-R68R-60)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Road-550-W Yellow, 38 (BK-R64Y-38)220

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Road-550-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R64Y-40)220

0.0%

-40.0%

RegressionBetter by 40.0 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R64Y-42)1314-1

-7.1%

3.1%

ExponentialWorse by 4.1 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R64Y-44)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Road-550-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R64Y-48)550

0.0%

20.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 20.0 %pts
Road-650 Black, 44 (BK-R50B-44)550

0.0%

37.6%

RegressionBetter by 37.6 %pts
Road-650 Black, 48 (BK-R50B-48)550

0.0%

6.9%

RegressionBetter by 6.9 %pts
Road-650 Black, 52 (BK-R50B-52)330

0.0%

11.7%

RegressionBetter by 11.7 %pts
Road-650 Black, 58 (BK-R50B-58)16142

14.3%

-30.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 16.5 %pts
Road-650 Black, 60 (BK-R50B-60)1314-1

-7.1%

-5.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 2.1 %pts
Road-650 Black, 62 (BK-R50B-62)220

0.0%

13.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 13.3 %pts
Road-650 Red, 44 (BK-R50R-44)880

0.0%

-5.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 5.5 %pts
Road-650 Red, 48 (BK-R50R-48)871

14.3%

93.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 79.1 %pts
Road-650 Red, 52 (BK-R50R-52)998316

19.3%

40.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 20.8 %pts
Road-650 Red, 58 (BK-R50R-58)330

0.0%

-29.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 29.3 %pts
Road-650 Red, 60 (BK-R50R-60)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Road-650 Red, 62 (BK-R50R-62)2425-1

-4.0%

-17.0%

RegressionBetter by 13.0 %pts
Road-750 Black, 44 (BK-R19B-44)15150

0.0%

-41.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 41.0 %pts
Road-750 Black, 48 (BK-R19B-48)220

0.0%

8.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 8.8 %pts
Road-750 Black, 52 (BK-R19B-52)10100

0.0%

10.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 10.5 %pts
Road-750 Black, 58 (BK-R19B-58)16160

0.0%

-49.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 49.3 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, L (SJ-0194-L)770

0.0%

-2.7%

RegressionBetter by 2.7 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, M (SJ-0194-M)11101

10.0%

-4.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 5.9 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, S (SJ-0194-S)72675

7.5%

-24.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 17.1 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, XL (SJ-0194-X)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Sport-100 Helmet, Black (HL-U509)220

0.0%

-56.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 56.5 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Blue (HL-U509-B)550

0.0%

-37.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 37.6 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Red (HL-U509-R)220

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Taillights - Battery-Powered (LT-T990)1073

42.9%

31.4%

HoltWintersWorse by 11.4 %pts
Touring Front Wheel (FW-T905)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Touring Pedal (PD-T852)330

0.0%

-10.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 10.3 %pts
Touring Rear Wheel (RW-T905)3132-1

-3.1%

-11.7%

RegressionBetter by 8.6 %pts
Touring Tire (TI-T723)220

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Touring Tire Tube (TT-T092)1315-2

-13.3%

10.9%

RegressionWorse by 2.5 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 46 (BK-T79U-46)770

0.0%

-13.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 13.1 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 54 (BK-T79U-54)440

0.0%

-16.7%

ExponentialBetter by 16.7 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 60 (BK-T79U-60)11810414

13.5%

31.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 17.5 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 46 (BK-T79Y-46)550

0.0%

-3.4%

ExponentialBetter by 3.4 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T79Y-50)330

0.0%

0.0%

LY+YOY Growth%The same
Touring-1000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T79Y-54)40346

17.6%

-11.6%

HoltWintersWorse by 6.0 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 60 (BK-T79Y-60)1082

25.0%

-0.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 24.3 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 46 (BK-T44U-46)220

0.0%

3.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 3.7 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 54 (BK-T44U-54)871

14.3%

13.1%

HoltWintersWorse by 1.2 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 60 (BK-T44U-60)660

0.0%

-18.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 18.0 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 44 (BK-T18U-44)550

0.0%

27.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 27.3 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 50 (BK-T18U-50)330

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Touring-3000 Blue, 54 (BK-T18U-54)330

0.0%

-25.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 25.4 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 58 (BK-T18U-58)990

0.0%

-13.7%

ExponentialBetter by 13.7 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 62 (BK-T18U-62)330

0.0%

-47.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 47.7 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 44 (BK-T18Y-44)35269

34.6%

49.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 15.2 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T18Y-50)40400

0.0%

-3.6%

ExponentialBetter by 3.6 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T18Y-54)216232-16

-6.9%

-18.4%

ExponentialBetter by 11.5 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 58 (BK-T18Y-58)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Touring-3000 Yellow, 62 (BK-T18Y-62)163178-15

-8.4%

-14.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 5.6 %pts
Touring-Panniers, Large (PA-T100)45432

4.7%

21.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 16.4 %pts
Water Bottle - 30 oz. (WB-H098)1082

25.0%

1.4%

RegressionWorse by 23.6 %pts
Women's Mountain Shorts, M (SH-W890-M)220

0.0%

-100.0%

RegressionBetter by 100.0 %pts
Women's Mountain Shorts, S (SH-W890-S)1284

50.0%

51.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 1.4 %pts
Women's Tights, L (TG-W091-L)45369

25.0%

14.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 10.9 %pts
Women's Tights, M (TG-W091-M)71692

2.9%

-4.1%

RegressionBetter by 1.2 %pts
Women's Tights, S (TG-W091-S)110

0.0%

0.9%

ExponentialBetter by 0.9 %pts
Total7,4667,3581081.5%-2.3% Better in 230 out of 299 items (76.9%)
Weighted Average % Error11.3%Weighted Average % Error (Alt)10.6%Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)6.3%Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)2.9
Weighted Average % Error-Statistics21.6%Weighted Average % Error (Alt)-Statistics10.4%Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)-Statistics23.5%Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)-Statistics5.3

Warehouse(FR) - Forecast in 4 - Aug
 ForecastActualVariancePercent ErrorStats Pct ErrorBest AlgorithmHuman vs. Statistics
All-Purpose Bike Stand (ST-1401)20200

0.0%

-2.5%

ExponentialBetter by 2.5 %pts
AWC Logo Cap (CA-1098)319352-33

-9.4%

-35.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 25.9 %pts
Bike Wash - Dissolver (CL-9009)752

40.0%

48.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 8.1 %pts
Cable Lock (LO-C100)330

0.0%

33.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 33.3 %pts
Chain (CH-0234)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Classic Vest, L (VE-C304-L)19190

0.0%

-43.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 43.0 %pts
Classic Vest, M (VE-C304-M)12120

0.0%

-58.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 58.5 %pts
Classic Vest, S (VE-C304-S)15132

15.4%

14.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 0.8 %pts
Fender Set - Mountain (FE-6654)220

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Front Brakes (FB-9873)16142

14.3%

-16.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 1.9 %pts
Front Derailleur (FD-2342)330

0.0%

0.0%

LY+YOY Growth%The same
Full-Finger Gloves, L (GL-F110-L)56479

19.1%

13.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 5.7 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, M (GL-F110-M)78-1

-12.5%

-52.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 40.0 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, S (GL-F110-S)541

25.0%

28.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 3.4 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, L (GL-H102-L)23212

9.5%

-11.3%

ExponentialBetter by 1.7 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, M (GL-H102-M)87861

1.2%

12.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 11.5 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, S (GL-H102-S)54531

1.9%

-3.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 1.7 %pts
Headlights - Dual-Beam (LT-H902)249258-9

-3.5%

-25.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 22.1 %pts
Headlights - Weatherproof (LT-H903)440

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
HL Bottom Bracket (BB-9108)14131

7.7%

-8.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 0.6 %pts
HL Crankset (CS-9183)330

0.0%

0.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 0.7 %pts
HL Fork (FK-9939)440

0.0%

-18.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 18.5 %pts
HL Headset (HS-3479)431

33.3%

38.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 5.1 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M94B-38)89-1

-11.1%

0.4%

ExponentialWorse by 10.8 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M94B-42)651

20.0%

-49.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 29.6 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M94B-44)1495

55.6%

84.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 28.6 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 46 (FR-M94B-46)220

0.0%

-50.0%

RegressionBetter by 50.0 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M94B-48)330

0.0%

-28.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 28.2 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 38 (FR-M94S-38)13112

18.2%

31.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 13.5 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M94S-44)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 46 (FR-M94S-46)330

0.0%

18.2%

ExponentialBetter by 18.2 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M94S-52)220

0.0%

60.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 60.0 %pts
HL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M928)17170

0.0%

11.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 11.6 %pts
HL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M918)18171

5.9%

-19.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 13.5 %pts
HL Mountain Pedal (PD-M562)330

0.0%

3.2%

RegressionBetter by 3.2 %pts
HL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M928)17134

30.8%

2.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 28.3 %pts
HL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M940)330

0.0%

3.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 3.2 %pts
HL Mountain Tire (TI-M823)1011-1

-9.1%

-17.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 8.4 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R92B-44)13510233

32.4%

25.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 6.4 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R92B-48)8084-4

-4.8%

-10.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 6.1 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R92B-52)136139-3

-2.2%

20.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 17.9 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R92B-58)871

14.3%

-12.8%

HoltWintersWorse by 1.5 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R92B-62)110

0.0%

89.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 89.7 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R92R-44)3537-2

-5.4%

-25.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 20.1 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R92R-48)550

0.0%

-3.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 3.5 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R92R-52)10100

0.0%

-3.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 3.5 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 56 (FR-R92R-56)1417-3

-17.6%

-28.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 10.8 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R92R-58)17152

13.3%

-8.5%

HoltWintersWorse by 4.8 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R92R-62)195246-51

-20.7%

13.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 6.8 %pts
HL Road Front Wheel (FW-R820)220

0.0%

69.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 69.6 %pts
HL Road Handlebars (HB-R956)17152

13.3%

25.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 12.3 %pts
HL Road Pedal (PD-R853)110

0.0%

21.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 21.4 %pts
HL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R820)880

0.0%

-19.1%

ExponentialBetter by 19.1 %pts
HL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R995)440

0.0%

0.0%

LY+YOY Growth%The same
HL Road Tire (TI-R982)330

0.0%

39.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 39.4 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 46 (FR-T98U-46)1091

11.1%

6.2%

HoltWintersWorse by 5.0 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T98U-50)660

0.0%

13.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 13.5 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T98U-54)770

0.0%

0.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 0.3 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 60 (FR-T98U-60)6465-1

-1.5%

-3.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 1.7 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 46 (FR-T98Y-46)291910

52.6%

49.5%

RegressionWorse by 3.2 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T98Y-50)220

0.0%

14.7%

RegressionBetter by 14.7 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T98Y-54)61610

0.0%

-4.3%

ExponentialBetter by 4.3 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 60 (FR-T98Y-60)1415-1

-6.7%

-20.9%

RegressionBetter by 14.2 %pts
HL Touring Handlebars (HB-T928)220

0.0%

67.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 67.6 %pts
HL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T924)16115

45.5%

7.7%

RegressionWorse by 37.8 %pts
Hydration Pack - 70 oz. (HY-1023-70)220

0.0%

-1.7%

ExponentialBetter by 1.7 %pts
LL Bottom Bracket (BB-7421)660

0.0%

0.1%

ExponentialBetter by 0.1 %pts
LL Crankset (CS-4759)990

0.0%

20.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 20.9 %pts
LL Fork (FK-1639)330

0.0%

75.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 75.0 %pts
LL Headset (HS-0296)13103

30.0%

73.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 43.1 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M21B-40)220

0.0%

5.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 5.8 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M21B-42)12120

0.0%

-8.0%

ExponentialBetter by 8.0 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M21B-44)220

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M21B-48)1618-2

-11.1%

-13.2%

ExponentialBetter by 2.1 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 52 (FR-M21B-52)338367-29

-7.9%

-27.2%

RegressionBetter by 19.3 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 40 (FR-M21S-40)112113-1

-0.9%

-5.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 4.2 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M21S-42)110

0.0%

16.1%

RegressionBetter by 16.1 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M21S-44)12711413

11.4%

12.1%

RegressionBetter by 0.7 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M21S-48)27234

17.4%

-30.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 13.3 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 52 (FR-M21S-52)104127-23

-18.1%

-22.1%

RegressionBetter by 4.0 %pts
LL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M423)13103

30.0%

10.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 20.0 %pts
LL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M243)18126

50.0%

57.8%

RegressionBetter by 7.8 %pts
LL Mountain Pedal (PD-M282)1618-2

-11.1%

-15.4%

ExponentialBetter by 4.2 %pts
LL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M423)440

0.0%

-24.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 24.2 %pts
LL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M236)990

0.0%

-50.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 50.5 %pts
LL Mountain Tire (TI-M267)16160

0.0%

7.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 7.7 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R38B-44)1314-1

-7.1%

1.0%

ExponentialWorse by 6.1 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R38B-48)2930-1

-3.3%

-9.8%

RegressionBetter by 6.5 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R38B-52)220

0.0%

6.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 6.5 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 60 (FR-R38B-60)1214-2

-14.3%

-25.6%

ExponentialBetter by 11.3 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R38B-62)220

0.0%

54.0%

RegressionBetter by 54.0 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R38R-44)2021-1

-4.8%

-15.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 10.6 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R38R-48)990

0.0%

10.4%

RegressionBetter by 10.4 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R38R-52)1315-2

-13.3%

-34.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 21.0 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R38R-58)46415

12.2%

10.9%

HoltWintersWorse by 1.3 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R38R-60)27522946

20.1%

3.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 17.0 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R38R-62)19181

5.6%

-14.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 8.7 %pts
LL Road Front Wheel (FW-R623)1215-3

-20.0%

-2.9%

ExponentialWorse by 17.1 %pts
LL Road Handlebars (HB-R504)220

0.0%

1.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 1.1 %pts
LL Road Pedal (PD-R347)1214-2

-14.3%

-31.6%

ExponentialBetter by 17.3 %pts
LL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R623)15132

15.4%

18.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 2.7 %pts
LL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R581)1027824

30.8%

39.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 8.8 %pts
LL Road Tire (TI-R092)660

0.0%

76.0%

RegressionBetter by 76.0 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 44 (FR-T67U-44)15150

0.0%

-4.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 4.3 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T67U-50)220

0.0%

-45.5%

RegressionBetter by 45.5 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T67U-54)990

0.0%

-5.7%

RegressionBetter by 5.7 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 58 (FR-T67U-58)1112-1

-8.3%

-19.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 10.8 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 62 (FR-T67U-62)330

0.0%

13.9%

RegressionBetter by 13.9 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 44 (FR-T67Y-44)110

0.0%

62.2%

RegressionBetter by 62.2 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T67Y-50)14140

0.0%

2.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 2.0 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T67Y-54)2322257

3.1%

14.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 11.2 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 58 (FR-T67Y-58)660

0.0%

5.1%

ExponentialBetter by 5.1 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 62 (FR-T67Y-62)1192

22.2%

11.1%

HoltWintersWorse by 11.1 %pts
LL Touring Handlebars (HB-T721)330

0.0%

1.4%

RegressionBetter by 1.4 %pts
LL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T312)1174

57.1%

79.0%

ExponentialBetter by 21.8 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, L (LJ-0192-L)13121

8.3%

-23.3%

RegressionBetter by 15.0 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, M (LJ-0192-M)46397

17.9%

-1.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 16.5 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, S (LJ-0192-S)220

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, XL (LJ-0192-X)330

0.0%

5.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 5.7 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, L (SB-M891-L)110

0.0%

9.5%

ExponentialBetter by 9.5 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, M (SB-M891-M)660

0.0%

37.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 37.1 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, S (SB-M891-S)90100-10

-10.0%

-7.7%

HoltWintersWorse by 2.3 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, L (SH-M897-L)330

0.0%

105.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 105.1 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, M (SH-M897-M)12120

0.0%

-25.4%

ExponentialBetter by 25.4 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, S (SH-M897-S)2602591

0.4%

-1.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 1.0 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, XL (SH-M897-X)220

0.0%

-35.5%

ExponentialBetter by 35.5 %pts
Minipump (PU-0452)18417113

7.6%

10.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 2.8 %pts
ML Bottom Bracket (BB-8107)38335

15.2%

-11.7%

HoltWintersWorse by 3.4 %pts
ML Crankset (CS-6583)220

0.0%

-39.5%

RegressionBetter by 39.5 %pts
ML Fork (FK-5136)12120

0.0%

9.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 9.9 %pts
ML Headset (HS-2451)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M63B-38)1415-1

-6.7%

3.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 3.1 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M63B-40)1820-2

-10.0%

-3.1%

ExponentialWorse by 6.9 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M63B-44)1192

22.2%

26.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 3.8 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M63B-48)26723631

13.1%

22.6%

RegressionBetter by 9.5 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 38 (FR-M63S-38)14140

0.0%

27.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 27.2 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 40 (FR-M63S-40)1091

11.1%

3.8%

RegressionWorse by 7.3 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 42 (FR-M63S-42)550

0.0%

10.0%

ExponentialBetter by 10.0 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 46 (FR-M63S-46)126143-17

-11.9%

-0.3%

RegressionWorse by 11.6 %pts
ML Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M762)330

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
ML Mountain Handlebars (HB-M763)651

20.0%

3.8%

RegressionWorse by 16.2 %pts
ML Mountain Pedal (PD-M340)1394

44.4%

34.5%

RegressionWorse by 10.0 %pts
ML Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M762)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
ML Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M798)660

0.0%

-10.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 10.3 %pts
ML Mountain Tire (TI-M602)71656

9.2%

17.6%

RegressionBetter by 8.4 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R72R-44)17170

0.0%

-13.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 13.3 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R72R-48)21618531

16.8%

73.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 57.0 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R72R-52)19813068

52.3%

39.5%

ExponentialWorse by 12.8 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R72R-58)770

0.0%

9.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 9.5 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R72R-60)32257

28.0%

18.0%

HoltWintersWorse by 10.0 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 38 (FR-R72Y-38)660

0.0%

-8.5%

RegressionBetter by 8.5 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 40 (FR-R72Y-40)15141

7.1%

11.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 4.2 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 42 (FR-R72Y-42)16142

14.3%

-0.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 13.7 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 44 (FR-R72Y-44)746410

15.6%

33.5%

ExponentialBetter by 17.9 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 48 (FR-R72Y-48)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
ML Road Front Wheel (FW-R762)25220943

20.6%

-35.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 14.6 %pts
ML Road Handlebars (HB-R720)19163

18.8%

21.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 2.7 %pts
ML Road Pedal (PD-R563)1218635

40.7%

51.9%

RegressionBetter by 11.2 %pts
ML Road Rear Wheel (RW-R762)1314-1

-7.1%

38.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 31.2 %pts
ML Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R908)22220

0.0%

15.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 15.8 %pts
ML Road Tire (TI-R628)15150

0.0%

-14.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 14.4 %pts
ML Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T762)1719-2

-10.5%

-40.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 29.9 %pts
Mountain Bike Socks, L (SO-B909-L)880

0.0%

10.8%

RegressionBetter by 10.8 %pts
Mountain Bike Socks, M (SO-B909-M)220

0.0%

0.0%

LY+YOY Growth%The same
Mountain Bottle Cage (BC-M005)440

0.0%

-24.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 24.4 %pts
Mountain Pump (PU-M044)440

0.0%

29.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 29.0 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 38 (BK-M82B-38)110

0.0%

14.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 14.1 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 42 (BK-M82B-42)46451

2.2%

7.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 5.1 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 44 (BK-M82B-44)1416-2

-12.5%

-30.5%

RegressionBetter by 18.0 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 48 (BK-M82B-48)550

0.0%

11.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 11.7 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 38 (BK-M82S-38)440

0.0%

-14.5%

ExponentialBetter by 14.5 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 42 (BK-M82S-42)330

0.0%

52.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 52.4 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 44 (BK-M82S-44)13130

0.0%

-2.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 2.1 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 48 (BK-M82S-48)330

0.0%

52.5%

ExponentialBetter by 52.5 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 38 (BK-M68B-38)10100

0.0%

9.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 9.9 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 42 (BK-M68B-42)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Mountain-200 Black, 46 (BK-M68B-46)770

0.0%

-15.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 15.4 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 38 (BK-M68S-38)23619442

21.6%

-7.7%

HoltWintersWorse by 13.9 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 42 (BK-M68S-42)770

0.0%

12.6%

RegressionBetter by 12.6 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 46 (BK-M68S-46)440

0.0%

-25.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 25.5 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 38 (BK-M47B-38)990

0.0%

6.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 6.3 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 40 (BK-M47B-40)37361

2.8%

7.6%

ExponentialBetter by 4.8 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 44 (BK-M47B-44)1921-2

-9.5%

-19.7%

ExponentialBetter by 10.1 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 48 (BK-M47B-48)14011822

18.6%

65.8%

RegressionBetter by 47.2 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 38 (BK-M38S-38)220

0.0%

-42.1%

RegressionBetter by 42.1 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 40 (BK-M38S-40)50455

11.1%

24.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 13.7 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 42 (BK-M38S-42)1284

50.0%

-10.9%

HoltWintersWorse by 39.1 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 46 (BK-M38S-46)13130

0.0%

34.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 34.7 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 40 (BK-M18B-40)695415

27.8%

21.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 6.8 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 42 (BK-M18B-42)110

0.0%

-37.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 37.8 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 44 (BK-M18B-44)38335

15.2%

6.7%

RegressionWorse by 8.5 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 48 (BK-M18B-48)292367-75

-20.4%

-24.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 3.5 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 52 (BK-M18B-52)13112

18.2%

-23.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 5.0 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 40 (BK-M18S-40)440

0.0%

-15.2%

RegressionBetter by 15.2 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 42 (BK-M18S-42)3363324

1.2%

-40.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 39.5 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 44 (BK-M18S-44)33312

6.5%

-12.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 5.8 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 48 (BK-M18S-48)220

0.0%

-42.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 42.3 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 52 (BK-M18S-52)440

0.0%

-45.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 45.0 %pts
Patch Kit/8 Patches (PK-7098)51501

2.0%

9.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 7.8 %pts
Racing Socks, L (SO-R809-L)330

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Racing Socks, M (SO-R809-M)770

0.0%

21.9%

RegressionBetter by 21.9 %pts
Rear Brakes (RB-9231)440

0.0%

5.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 5.7 %pts
Rear Derailleur (RD-2308)215263-48

-18.3%

-24.9%

ExponentialBetter by 6.7 %pts
Road Bottle Cage (BC-R205)1192

22.2%

12.7%

ExponentialWorse by 9.5 %pts
Road Tire Tube (TT-R982)2023-3

-13.0%

-43.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 30.8 %pts
Road-150 Red, 44 (BK-R93R-44)20155

33.3%

-20.9%

HoltWintersWorse by 12.4 %pts
Road-150 Red, 48 (BK-R93R-48)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Road-150 Red, 52 (BK-R93R-52)12120

0.0%

-24.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 24.0 %pts
Road-150 Red, 56 (BK-R93R-56)1921-2

-9.5%

-17.2%

RegressionBetter by 7.7 %pts
Road-150 Red, 62 (BK-R93R-62)1213-1

-7.7%

-20.3%

ExponentialBetter by 12.6 %pts
Road-250 Black, 44 (BK-R89B-44)2930-1

-3.3%

-1.1%

HoltWintersWorse by 2.2 %pts
Road-250 Black, 48 (BK-R89B-48)15814513

9.0%

33.2%

RegressionBetter by 24.3 %pts
Road-250 Black, 52 (BK-R89B-52)440

0.0%

-18.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 18.6 %pts
Road-250 Black, 58 (BK-R89B-58)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Road-250 Red, 44 (BK-R89R-44)816813

19.1%

-11.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 7.3 %pts
Road-250 Red, 48 (BK-R89R-48)23321518

8.4%

36.9%

ExponentialBetter by 28.5 %pts
Road-250 Red, 52 (BK-R89R-52)330

0.0%

-9.3%

RegressionBetter by 9.3 %pts
Road-250 Red, 58 (BK-R89R-58)330

0.0%

-14.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 14.3 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R79Y-40)880

0.0%

30.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 30.8 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R79Y-42)10100

0.0%

-4.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 4.7 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R79Y-44)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Road-350-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R79Y-48)10100

0.0%

18.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 18.6 %pts
Road-450 Red, 48 (BK-R68R-48)21210

0.0%

-22.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 22.5 %pts
Road-450 Red, 52 (BK-R68R-52)660

0.0%

-19.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 19.3 %pts
Road-450 Red, 58 (BK-R68R-58)2729-2

-6.9%

-14.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 7.6 %pts
Road-450 Red, 60 (BK-R68R-60)330

0.0%

50.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 50.9 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 38 (BK-R64Y-38)14131

7.7%

1.4%

RegressionWorse by 6.3 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R64Y-40)220

0.0%

38.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 38.5 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R64Y-42)12120

0.0%

-8.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 8.0 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R64Y-44)330

0.0%

-7.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 7.6 %pts
Road-650 Black, 44 (BK-R50B-44)1314-1

-7.1%

-1.3%

HoltWintersWorse by 5.8 %pts
Road-650 Black, 48 (BK-R50B-48)1284

50.0%

21.9%

HoltWintersWorse by 28.1 %pts
Road-650 Black, 52 (BK-R50B-52)1718-1

-5.6%

-20.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 14.9 %pts
Road-650 Black, 58 (BK-R50B-58)220

0.0%

41.2%

RegressionBetter by 41.2 %pts
Road-650 Black, 60 (BK-R50B-60)1011-1

-9.1%

-33.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 24.5 %pts
Road-650 Black, 62 (BK-R50B-62)330

0.0%

61.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 61.6 %pts
Road-650 Red, 44 (BK-R50R-44)440

0.0%

63.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 63.2 %pts
Road-650 Red, 52 (BK-R50R-52)28244

16.7%

-1.1%

ExponentialWorse by 15.6 %pts
Road-650 Red, 58 (BK-R50R-58)16142

14.3%

-28.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 14.3 %pts
Road-650 Red, 60 (BK-R50R-60)1011-1

-9.1%

-22.1%

ExponentialBetter by 13.0 %pts
Road-650 Red, 62 (BK-R50R-62)21183

16.7%

20.2%

RegressionBetter by 3.5 %pts
Road-750 Black, 44 (BK-R19B-44)110

0.0%

-100.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 100.0 %pts
Road-750 Black, 48 (BK-R19B-48)13112

18.2%

12.6%

HoltWintersWorse by 5.6 %pts
Road-750 Black, 52 (BK-R19B-52)220

0.0%

19.2%

RegressionBetter by 19.2 %pts
Road-750 Black, 58 (BK-R19B-58)330

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, L (SJ-0194-L)1721-4

-19.0%

-13.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 5.1 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, M (SJ-0194-M)1314-1

-7.1%

18.8%

ExponentialBetter by 11.7 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, S (SJ-0194-S)2562515

2.0%

7.2%

ExponentialBetter by 5.2 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, XL (SJ-0194-X)330

0.0%

10.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 10.1 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Black (HL-U509)220

0.0%

20.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 20.0 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Blue (HL-U509-B)14140

0.0%

-9.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 9.4 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Red (HL-U509-R)330

0.0%

-54.2%

ExponentialBetter by 54.2 %pts
Taillights - Battery-Powered (LT-T990)14104

40.0%

34.0%

HoltWintersWorse by 6.0 %pts
Touring Front Wheel (FW-T905)330

0.0%

-20.8%

RegressionBetter by 20.8 %pts
Touring Pedal (PD-T852)16124

33.3%

-1.8%

HoltWintersWorse by 31.6 %pts
Touring Rear Wheel (RW-T905)119138-19

-13.8%

-25.4%

ExponentialBetter by 11.6 %pts
Touring Tire (TI-T723)550

0.0%

41.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 41.3 %pts
Touring Tire Tube (TT-T092)330

0.0%

26.0%

ExponentialBetter by 26.0 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 46 (BK-T79U-46)32293

10.3%

-17.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 6.8 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 50 (BK-T79U-50)220

0.0%

11.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 11.1 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 54 (BK-T79U-54)2426-2

-7.7%

-29.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 22.2 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 60 (BK-T79U-60)3435-1

-2.9%

-12.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 9.8 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 46 (BK-T79Y-46)220

0.0%

4.1%

ExponentialBetter by 4.1 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T79Y-50)550

0.0%

-12.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 12.2 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T79Y-54)1751732

1.2%

-8.8%

RegressionBetter by 7.6 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 60 (BK-T79Y-60)440

0.0%

-25.8%

RegressionBetter by 25.8 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 46 (BK-T44U-46)440

0.0%

28.9%

ExponentialBetter by 28.9 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 50 (BK-T44U-50)330

0.0%

-26.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 26.9 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 54 (BK-T44U-54)1517-2

-11.8%

-32.2%

ExponentialBetter by 20.4 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 60 (BK-T44U-60)1174

57.1%

64.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 7.7 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 44 (BK-T18U-44)642

50.0%

25.7%

ExponentialWorse by 24.3 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 50 (BK-T18U-50)1314-1

-7.1%

-35.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 28.5 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 54 (BK-T18U-54)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Touring-3000 Blue, 58 (BK-T18U-58)330

0.0%

3.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 3.2 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 62 (BK-T18U-62)990

0.0%

8.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 8.0 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 44 (BK-T18Y-44)68617

11.5%

14.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 2.7 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T18Y-50)112130-18

-13.8%

-35.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 21.9 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T18Y-54)1089315

16.1%

60.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 44.7 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 58 (BK-T18Y-58)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Touring-3000 Yellow, 62 (BK-T18Y-62)42366

16.7%

-7.3%

HoltWintersWorse by 9.4 %pts
Touring-Panniers, Large (PA-T100)197223-26

-11.7%

-29.4%

RegressionBetter by 17.7 %pts
Water Bottle - 30 oz. (WB-H098)2427-3

-11.1%

-38.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 27.1 %pts
Women's Mountain Shorts, L (SH-W890-L)550

0.0%

24.5%

ExponentialBetter by 24.5 %pts
Women's Mountain Shorts, M (SH-W890-M)14140

0.0%

21.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 21.0 %pts
Women's Mountain Shorts, S (SH-W890-S)1113-2

-15.4%

-37.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 22.2 %pts
Women's Tights, L (TG-W091-L)62620

0.0%

-3.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 3.2 %pts
Women's Tights, M (TG-W091-M)15413816

11.6%

0.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 11.5 %pts
Women's Tights, S (TG-W091-S)1073

42.9%

-3.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 39.2 %pts
Total10,1919,9002912.9%-1.3% Better in 228 out of 299 items (76.3%)
Weighted Average % Error11.7%Weighted Average % Error (Alt)10.9%Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)8.3%Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)4.0
Weighted Average % Error-Statistics22.1%Weighted Average % Error (Alt)-Statistics8.4%Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)-Statistics21.2%Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)-Statistics7.3

Specialty Bike Shop(DE) - Forecast in 4 - Aug
 ForecastActualVariancePercent ErrorStats Pct ErrorBest AlgorithmHuman vs. Statistics
All-Purpose Bike Stand (ST-1401)14413014

10.8%

20.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 9.9 %pts
AWC Logo Cap (CA-1098)360407-47

-11.5%

-18.9%

RegressionBetter by 7.4 %pts
Bike Wash - Dissolver (CL-9009)990

0.0%

-39.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 39.5 %pts
Cable Lock (LO-C100)880

0.0%

20.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 20.2 %pts
Chain (CH-0234)330

0.0%

-13.4%

RegressionBetter by 13.4 %pts
Classic Vest, L (VE-C304-L)910-1

-10.0%

41.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 31.7 %pts
Classic Vest, M (VE-C304-M)330

0.0%

-30.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 30.8 %pts
Classic Vest, S (VE-C304-S)880

0.0%

27.7%

ExponentialBetter by 27.7 %pts
Fender Set - Mountain (FE-6654)110

0.0%

118.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 118.0 %pts
Front Brakes (FB-9873)20200

0.0%

37.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 37.0 %pts
Front Derailleur (FD-2342)2426-2

-7.7%

12.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 4.6 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, L (GL-F110-L)418261157

60.2%

49.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 10.9 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, M (GL-F110-M)871

14.3%

23.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 9.5 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, S (GL-F110-S)20200

0.0%

-10.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 10.9 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, L (GL-H102-L)220

0.0%

44.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 44.2 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, M (GL-H102-M)448263185

70.3%

40.9%

RegressionWorse by 29.4 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, S (GL-H102-S)12911316

14.2%

37.4%

RegressionBetter by 23.3 %pts
Headlights - Dual-Beam (LT-H902)81810

0.0%

-10.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 10.2 %pts
Headlights - Weatherproof (LT-H903)17161

6.3%

0.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 5.6 %pts
Hitch Rack - 4-Bike (RA-H123)19172

11.8%

16.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 4.9 %pts
HL Bottom Bracket (BB-9108)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
HL Crankset (CS-9183)1617-1

-5.9%

-10.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 4.9 %pts
HL Fork (FK-9939)440

0.0%

-29.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 29.8 %pts
HL Headset (HS-3479)12120

0.0%

-11.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 11.2 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M94B-38)770

0.0%

11.2%

ExponentialBetter by 11.2 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M94B-42)2224-2

-8.3%

-17.8%

RegressionBetter by 9.5 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M94B-44)1073

42.9%

30.9%

HoltWintersWorse by 11.9 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 46 (FR-M94B-46)440

0.0%

-19.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 19.0 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M94B-48)963

50.0%

16.7%

HoltWintersWorse by 33.3 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 38 (FR-M94S-38)1314-1

-7.1%

10.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 3.8 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M94S-42)2324-1

-4.2%

5.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 1.3 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M94S-44)660

0.0%

10.9%

RegressionBetter by 10.9 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 46 (FR-M94S-46)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M94S-52)1011-1

-9.1%

1.8%

ExponentialWorse by 7.3 %pts
HL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M928)12120

0.0%

-12.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 12.8 %pts
HL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M918)911-2

-18.2%

4.3%

HoltWintersWorse by 13.9 %pts
HL Mountain Pedal (PD-M562)440

0.0%

0.0%

LY+YOY Growth%The same
HL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M928)330

0.0%

14.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 14.9 %pts
HL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M940)2428-4

-14.3%

-12.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 2.0 %pts
HL Mountain Tire (TI-M823)78-1

-12.5%

14.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 2.3 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R92B-44)277290-13

-4.5%

-13.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 8.8 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R92B-48)26251

4.0%

3.9%

RegressionWorse by 0.1 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R92B-52)4346-3

-6.5%

-52.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 45.8 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R92B-58)15150

0.0%

-24.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 24.2 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R92B-62)1315-2

-13.3%

-29.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 16.1 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R92R-44)2021-1

-4.8%

-31.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 26.6 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R92R-48)871

14.3%

57.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 43.1 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R92R-52)11110

0.0%

39.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 39.3 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 56 (FR-R92R-56)651

20.0%

20.5%

RegressionBetter by 0.5 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R92R-58)17143

21.4%

-5.2%

RegressionWorse by 16.2 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R92R-62)362381-19

-5.0%

-41.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 36.6 %pts
HL Road Front Wheel (FW-R820)981

12.5%

-6.1%

RegressionWorse by 6.4 %pts
HL Road Handlebars (HB-R956)21210

0.0%

-22.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 22.7 %pts
HL Road Pedal (PD-R853)2427-3

-11.1%

15.4%

RegressionBetter by 4.3 %pts
HL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R820)752

40.0%

18.9%

ExponentialWorse by 21.1 %pts
HL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R995)21192

10.5%

0.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 10.1 %pts
HL Road Tire (TI-R982)440

0.0%

14.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 14.2 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 46 (FR-T98U-46)1517-2

-11.8%

-15.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 3.3 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T98U-50)1718-1

-5.6%

-3.2%

RegressionWorse by 2.4 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T98U-54)14122

16.7%

28.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 11.5 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 60 (FR-T98U-60)159162-3

-1.9%

-2.3%

RegressionBetter by 0.5 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 46 (FR-T98Y-46)705515

27.3%

18.9%

ExponentialWorse by 8.4 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T98Y-50)871

14.3%

15.4%

RegressionBetter by 1.1 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T98Y-54)315349-34

-9.7%

-32.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 23.2 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 60 (FR-T98Y-60)220

0.0%

66.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 66.1 %pts
HL Touring Handlebars (HB-T928)19154

26.7%

6.8%

ExponentialWorse by 19.8 %pts
HL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T924)910-1

-10.0%

16.1%

RegressionBetter by 6.1 %pts
Hydration Pack - 70 oz. (HY-1023-70)660

0.0%

4.9%

ExponentialBetter by 4.9 %pts
LL Bottom Bracket (BB-7421)17125

41.7%

56.2%

ExponentialBetter by 14.5 %pts
LL Crankset (CS-4759)2022-2

-9.1%

-2.2%

RegressionWorse by 6.9 %pts
LL Fork (FK-1639)1113-2

-15.4%

5.7%

HoltWintersWorse by 9.7 %pts
LL Headset (HS-0296)23212

9.5%

-24.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 14.7 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M21B-40)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M21B-42)220

0.0%

5.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 5.9 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M21B-44)660

0.0%

-32.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 32.8 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M21B-48)220

0.0%

30.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 30.7 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 52 (FR-M21B-52)18614343

30.1%

19.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 10.9 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 40 (FR-M21S-40)144156-12

-7.7%

-25.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 17.6 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M21S-42)871

14.3%

-10.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 4.3 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M21S-44)4184180

0.0%

-6.6%

ExponentialBetter by 6.6 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M21S-48)110

0.0%

-100.0%

RegressionBetter by 100.0 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 52 (FR-M21S-52)5862-4

-6.5%

3.5%

HoltWintersWorse by 3.0 %pts
LL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M423)19154

26.7%

21.2%

ExponentialWorse by 5.4 %pts
LL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M243)761

16.7%

-13.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 3.2 %pts
LL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M423)981

12.5%

-10.8%

HoltWintersWorse by 1.7 %pts
LL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M236)871

14.3%

-5.9%

HoltWintersWorse by 8.4 %pts
LL Mountain Tire (TI-M267)1213-1

-7.7%

-19.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 11.8 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R38B-44)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
LL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R38B-48)1213-1

-7.7%

-3.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 3.8 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R38B-52)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
LL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R38B-58)810-2

-20.0%

-33.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 13.3 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 60 (FR-R38B-60)110

0.0%

57.5%

RegressionBetter by 57.5 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R38B-62)14140

0.0%

-6.9%

ExponentialBetter by 6.9 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R38R-44)139175-36

-20.6%

8.3%

HoltWintersWorse by 12.2 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R38R-48)330

0.0%

104.7%

RegressionBetter by 104.7 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R38R-52)440

0.0%

-33.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 33.3 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R38R-58)14011426

22.8%

9.1%

HoltWintersWorse by 13.7 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R38R-60)17812355

44.7%

80.8%

ExponentialBetter by 36.0 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R38R-62)770

0.0%

-22.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 22.9 %pts
LL Road Front Wheel (FW-R623)330

0.0%

7.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 7.8 %pts
LL Road Handlebars (HB-R504)28280

0.0%

6.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 6.5 %pts
LL Road Pedal (PD-R347)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
LL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R623)1316-3

-18.8%

-12.9%

HoltWintersWorse by 5.8 %pts
LL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R581)36630165

21.6%

-26.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 5.1 %pts
LL Road Tire (TI-R092)21210

0.0%

-7.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 7.7 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 44 (FR-T67U-44)16124

33.3%

52.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 19.0 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T67U-50)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T67U-54)24222

9.1%

-16.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 6.9 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 58 (FR-T67U-58)871

14.3%

17.1%

RegressionBetter by 2.8 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 44 (FR-T67Y-44)752

40.0%

39.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 0.9 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T67Y-50)36360

0.0%

-6.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 6.9 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T67Y-54)32311

3.2%

-7.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 4.2 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 58 (FR-T67Y-58)2124-3

-12.5%

17.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 5.4 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 62 (FR-T67Y-62)330

0.0%

1.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 1.1 %pts
LL Touring Handlebars (HB-T721)11110

0.0%

-10.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 10.5 %pts
LL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T312)330

0.0%

-28.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 28.2 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, L (LJ-0192-L)13112

18.2%

25.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 7.3 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, M (LJ-0192-M)207237-30

-12.7%

-25.9%

RegressionBetter by 13.3 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, S (LJ-0192-S)1284

50.0%

66.7%

RegressionBetter by 16.7 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, XL (LJ-0192-X)13130

0.0%

12.0%

ExponentialBetter by 12.0 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, L (SB-M891-L)1213-1

-7.7%

-19.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 11.7 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, M (SB-M891-M)11110

0.0%

5.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 5.9 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, S (SB-M891-S)25021733

15.2%

-14.4%

HoltWintersWorse by 0.8 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, L (SH-M897-L)330

0.0%

112.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 112.6 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, M (SH-M897-M)29263

11.5%

12.4%

RegressionBetter by 0.9 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, S (SH-M897-S)262282-20

-7.1%

-12.8%

RegressionBetter by 5.7 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, XL (SH-M897-X)1314-1

-7.1%

-0.2%

RegressionWorse by 7.0 %pts
Minipump (PU-0452)85796

7.6%

6.8%

ExponentialWorse by 0.8 %pts
ML Bottom Bracket (BB-8107)200235-35

-14.9%

-13.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 1.7 %pts
ML Crankset (CS-6583)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
ML Fork (FK-5136)17143

21.4%

-5.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 15.8 %pts
ML Headset (HS-2451)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M63B-38)10100

0.0%

16.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 16.3 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M63B-40)21156

40.0%

39.4%

RegressionWorse by 0.6 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M63B-44)2730-3

-10.0%

-16.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 6.9 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M63B-48)1071070

0.0%

-11.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 11.6 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 38 (FR-M63S-38)12111

9.1%

-3.6%

HoltWintersWorse by 5.5 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 40 (FR-M63S-40)21201

5.0%

-9.2%

ExponentialBetter by 4.2 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 42 (FR-M63S-42)440

0.0%

4.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 4.7 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 46 (FR-M63S-46)282355-73

-20.6%

0.5%

HoltWintersWorse by 20.0 %pts
ML Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M762)1214-2

-14.3%

-11.6%

RegressionWorse by 2.7 %pts
ML Mountain Handlebars (HB-M763)220

0.0%

-25.6%

RegressionBetter by 25.6 %pts
ML Mountain Pedal (PD-M340)2527-2

-7.4%

-7.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 0.0 %pts
ML Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M762)20173

17.6%

42.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 24.4 %pts
ML Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M798)330

0.0%

-52.3%

RegressionBetter by 52.3 %pts
ML Mountain Tire (TI-M602)338414-76

-18.4%

-35.1%

ExponentialBetter by 16.8 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R72R-44)330

0.0%

-33.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 33.3 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R72R-48)237287-50

-17.4%

1.8%

RegressionWorse by 15.6 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R72R-52)6469-5

-7.2%

7.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 0.5 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R72R-58)330

0.0%

-4.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 4.5 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R72R-60)871

14.3%

13.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 0.5 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 38 (FR-R72Y-38)660

0.0%

38.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 38.5 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 40 (FR-R72Y-40)330

0.0%

20.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 20.8 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 42 (FR-R72Y-42)440

0.0%

-14.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 14.0 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 44 (FR-R72Y-44)43412

4.9%

-7.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 2.7 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 48 (FR-R72Y-48)220

0.0%

4.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 4.2 %pts
ML Road Front Wheel (FW-R762)168186-18

-9.7%

-20.8%

ExponentialBetter by 11.1 %pts
ML Road Handlebars (HB-R720)1293

33.3%

34.6%

RegressionBetter by 1.2 %pts
ML Road Pedal (PD-R563)43934792

26.5%

42.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 16.2 %pts
ML Road Rear Wheel (RW-R762)1011-1

-9.1%

-17.2%

RegressionBetter by 8.1 %pts
ML Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R908)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
ML Road Tire (TI-R628)440

0.0%

-27.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 27.2 %pts
ML Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T762)2021-1

-4.8%

-18.0%

ExponentialBetter by 13.3 %pts
Mountain Bike Socks, L (SO-B909-L)1617-1

-5.9%

-15.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 9.7 %pts
Mountain Bike Socks, M (SO-B909-M)17170

0.0%

-19.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 19.0 %pts
Mountain Pump (PU-M044)440

0.0%

27.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 27.5 %pts
Mountain Tire Tube (TT-M928)330

0.0%

22.3%

RegressionBetter by 22.3 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 38 (BK-M82B-38)440

0.0%

20.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 20.9 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 42 (BK-M82B-42)104124-20

-16.1%

-33.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 17.2 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 44 (BK-M82B-44)954

80.0%

74.8%

HoltWintersWorse by 5.2 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 48 (BK-M82B-48)761

16.7%

37.6%

RegressionBetter by 21.0 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 38 (BK-M82S-38)17161

6.3%

52.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 46.0 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 42 (BK-M82S-42)981

12.5%

-13.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 0.6 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 44 (BK-M82S-44)18162

12.5%

15.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 3.0 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 48 (BK-M82S-48)17152

13.3%

4.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 8.9 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 38 (BK-M68B-38)15123

25.0%

28.1%

RegressionBetter by 3.1 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 42 (BK-M68B-42)1921-2

-9.5%

-18.8%

RegressionBetter by 9.3 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 46 (BK-M68B-46)2021-1

-4.8%

-36.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 32.0 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 38 (BK-M68S-38)24822721

9.3%

8.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 0.9 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 42 (BK-M68S-42)10100

0.0%

0.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 0.6 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 46 (BK-M68S-46)32293

10.3%

-10.3%

RegressionWorse by 0.1 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 38 (BK-M47B-38)440

0.0%

0.0%

LY+YOY Growth%The same
Mountain-300 Black, 40 (BK-M47B-40)15141

7.1%

9.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 2.7 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 44 (BK-M47B-44)1183

37.5%

3.1%

RegressionWorse by 34.4 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 48 (BK-M47B-48)168196-28

-14.3%

6.8%

HoltWintersWorse by 7.5 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 38 (BK-M38S-38)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Mountain-400-W Silver, 40 (BK-M38S-40)857312

16.4%

-24.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 8.2 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 42 (BK-M38S-42)18162

12.5%

-14.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 2.0 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 46 (BK-M38S-46)660

0.0%

0.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 0.3 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 40 (BK-M18B-40)27320370

34.5%

34.8%

RegressionBetter by 0.3 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 42 (BK-M18B-42)1819-1

-5.3%

-4.8%

ExponentialWorse by 0.4 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 44 (BK-M18B-44)1121039

8.7%

-15.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 6.7 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 48 (BK-M18B-48)22620818

8.7%

36.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 28.0 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 52 (BK-M18B-52)990

0.0%

43.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 43.8 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 40 (BK-M18S-40)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Mountain-500 Silver, 42 (BK-M18S-42)24213

14.3%

7.7%

HoltWintersWorse by 6.6 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 44 (BK-M18S-44)298299-1

-0.3%

-3.1%

RegressionBetter by 2.8 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 48 (BK-M18S-48)15150

0.0%

1.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 1.9 %pts
Patch Kit/8 Patches (PK-7098)20164

25.0%

47.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 22.3 %pts
Racing Socks, L (SO-R809-L)2426-2

-7.7%

-12.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 4.3 %pts
Racing Socks, M (SO-R809-M)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Rear Brakes (RB-9231)20155

33.3%

12.5%

HoltWintersWorse by 20.8 %pts
Rear Derailleur (RD-2308)46238280

20.9%

16.3%

HoltWintersWorse by 4.7 %pts
Road Bottle Cage (BC-R205)19172

11.8%

19.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 7.8 %pts
Road Tire Tube (TT-R982)14131

7.7%

39.9%

RegressionBetter by 32.2 %pts
Road-150 Red, 44 (BK-R93R-44)550

0.0%

50.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 50.4 %pts
Road-150 Red, 48 (BK-R93R-48)220

0.0%

8.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 8.3 %pts
Road-150 Red, 52 (BK-R93R-52)440

0.0%

-20.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 20.9 %pts
Road-150 Red, 62 (BK-R93R-62)862

33.3%

1.8%

HoltWintersWorse by 31.5 %pts
Road-250 Black, 44 (BK-R89B-44)355388-33

-8.5%

-13.1%

ExponentialBetter by 4.6 %pts
Road-250 Black, 48 (BK-R89B-48)44404

10.0%

7.3%

ExponentialWorse by 2.7 %pts
Road-250 Black, 52 (BK-R89B-52)17134

30.8%

51.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 20.8 %pts
Road-250 Black, 58 (BK-R89B-58)1213-1

-7.7%

24.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 16.9 %pts
Road-250 Red, 44 (BK-R89R-44)1920-1

-5.0%

-4.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 1.0 %pts
Road-250 Red, 48 (BK-R89R-48)173195-22

-11.3%

-48.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 37.4 %pts
Road-250 Red, 52 (BK-R89R-52)330

0.0%

30.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 30.8 %pts
Road-250 Red, 58 (BK-R89R-58)330

0.0%

-3.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 3.5 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R79Y-40)1517-2

-11.8%

-6.2%

HoltWintersWorse by 5.6 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R79Y-42)1112-1

-8.3%

-9.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 0.6 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R79Y-44)1073

42.9%

127.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 84.8 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R79Y-48)13130

0.0%

-45.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 45.2 %pts
Road-450 Red, 44 (BK-R68R-44)660

0.0%

-7.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 7.6 %pts
Road-450 Red, 48 (BK-R68R-48)12111

9.1%

-4.1%

RegressionWorse by 5.0 %pts
Road-450 Red, 52 (BK-R68R-52)15150

0.0%

-5.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 5.6 %pts
Road-450 Red, 58 (BK-R68R-58)2122-1

-4.5%

-8.3%

ExponentialBetter by 3.8 %pts
Road-450 Red, 60 (BK-R68R-60)550

0.0%

-5.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 5.0 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 38 (BK-R64Y-38)550

0.0%

-1.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 1.9 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R64Y-40)13121

8.3%

10.5%

ExponentialBetter by 2.1 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R64Y-42)440

0.0%

22.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 22.2 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R64Y-44)21183

16.7%

-30.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 13.6 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R64Y-48)67-1

-14.3%

2.8%

HoltWintersWorse by 11.5 %pts
Road-650 Black, 44 (BK-R50B-44)330

0.0%

-56.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 56.5 %pts
Road-650 Black, 48 (BK-R50B-48)110

0.0%

51.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 51.5 %pts
Road-650 Black, 58 (BK-R50B-58)21183

16.7%

-14.9%

HoltWintersWorse by 1.8 %pts
Road-650 Black, 60 (BK-R50B-60)1516-1

-6.3%

-16.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 10.0 %pts
Road-650 Black, 62 (BK-R50B-62)1921-2

-9.5%

-22.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 13.1 %pts
Road-650 Red, 44 (BK-R50R-44)1619-3

-15.8%

2.5%

HoltWintersWorse by 13.3 %pts
Road-650 Red, 48 (BK-R50R-48)17143

21.4%

62.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 41.5 %pts
Road-650 Red, 52 (BK-R50R-52)1141059

8.6%

-2.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 6.2 %pts
Road-650 Red, 58 (BK-R50R-58)1315-2

-13.3%

-24.4%

ExponentialBetter by 11.0 %pts
Road-650 Red, 60 (BK-R50R-60)330

0.0%

-2.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 2.2 %pts
Road-650 Red, 62 (BK-R50R-62)40836246

12.7%

-25.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 12.6 %pts
Road-750 Black, 44 (BK-R19B-44)2022-2

-9.1%

-30.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 21.2 %pts
Road-750 Black, 48 (BK-R19B-48)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Road-750 Black, 52 (BK-R19B-52)220

0.0%

-21.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 21.8 %pts
Road-750 Black, 58 (BK-R19B-58)16115

45.5%

4.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 41.0 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, L (SJ-0194-L)89-1

-11.1%

-1.2%

RegressionWorse by 9.9 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, M (SJ-0194-M)220

0.0%

54.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 54.5 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, S (SJ-0194-S)62611

1.6%

-1.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 0.6 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, XL (SJ-0194-X)3233-1

-3.0%

-5.2%

ExponentialBetter by 2.2 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Black (HL-U509)1284

50.0%

63.3%

ExponentialBetter by 13.3 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Blue (HL-U509-B)110

0.0%

23.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 23.1 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Red (HL-U509-R)330

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Taillights - Battery-Powered (LT-T990)660

0.0%

-30.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 30.1 %pts
Touring Front Wheel (FW-T905)1415-1

-6.7%

-33.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 27.1 %pts
Touring Pedal (PD-T852)1012-2

-16.7%

-24.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 7.8 %pts
Touring Rear Wheel (RW-T905)35341

2.9%

-9.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 6.8 %pts
Touring Tire (TI-T723)27234

17.4%

22.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 5.3 %pts
Touring Tire Tube (TT-T092)22211

4.8%

-8.5%

RegressionBetter by 3.8 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 46 (BK-T79U-46)15141

7.1%

29.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 21.9 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 50 (BK-T79U-50)550

0.0%

21.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 21.5 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 54 (BK-T79U-54)880

0.0%

22.4%

RegressionBetter by 22.4 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 60 (BK-T79U-60)58553

5.5%

-2.4%

RegressionWorse by 3.0 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 46 (BK-T79Y-46)12120

0.0%

5.6%

RegressionBetter by 5.6 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T79Y-50)2023-3

-13.0%

-36.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 23.3 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T79Y-54)584810

20.8%

10.2%

HoltWintersWorse by 10.7 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 60 (BK-T79Y-60)16151

6.7%

3.8%

RegressionWorse by 2.9 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 46 (BK-T44U-46)2122-1

-4.5%

-23.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 18.8 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 50 (BK-T44U-50)29263

11.5%

-26.0%

RegressionBetter by 14.5 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 54 (BK-T44U-54)550

0.0%

-19.7%

RegressionBetter by 19.7 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 60 (BK-T44U-60)3940-1

-2.5%

-16.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 14.3 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 44 (BK-T18U-44)20182

11.1%

15.4%

RegressionBetter by 4.3 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 50 (BK-T18U-50)27189

50.0%

49.3%

HoltWintersWorse by 0.7 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 54 (BK-T18U-54)1920-1

-5.0%

-15.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 10.0 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 58 (BK-T18U-58)13130

0.0%

28.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 28.5 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 62 (BK-T18U-62)11101

10.0%

12.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 2.1 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 44 (BK-T18Y-44)3713692

0.5%

-20.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 20.2 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T18Y-50)8391-8

-8.8%

-37.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 28.7 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T18Y-54)37334

12.1%

-9.3%

HoltWintersWorse by 2.9 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 58 (BK-T18Y-58)330

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Touring-3000 Yellow, 62 (BK-T18Y-62)24222121

9.5%

24.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 14.6 %pts
Touring-Panniers, Large (PA-T100)332310

43.5%

36.9%

ExponentialWorse by 6.6 %pts
Water Bottle - 30 oz. (WB-H098)17152

13.3%

40.1%

RegressionBetter by 26.7 %pts
Women's Mountain Shorts, M (SH-W890-M)972

28.6%

55.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 27.2 %pts
Women's Mountain Shorts, S (SH-W890-S)16151

6.7%

-7.8%

RegressionBetter by 1.1 %pts
Women's Tights, L (TG-W091-L)49548312

2.5%

-12.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 10.3 %pts
Women's Tights, M (TG-W091-M)2962906

2.1%

6.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 4.3 %pts
Women's Tights, S (TG-W091-S)880

0.0%

-18.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 18.0 %pts
Total14,64414,0985463.9%-3.1% Better in 211 out of 299 items (70.6%)
Weighted Average % Error13.5%Weighted Average % Error (Alt)12.4%Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)9.9%Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)6.6
Weighted Average % Error-Statistics20.5%Weighted Average % Error (Alt)-Statistics6.9%Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)-Statistics20.8%Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)-Statistics9.7

Value Added Reseller(DE) - Forecast in 4 - Aug
 ForecastActualVariancePercent ErrorStats Pct ErrorBest AlgorithmHuman vs. Statistics
All-Purpose Bike Stand (ST-1401)8493-9

-9.7%

30.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 21.1 %pts
AWC Logo Cap (CA-1098)6265-3

-4.6%

-9.3%

RegressionBetter by 4.7 %pts
Bike Wash - Dissolver (CL-9009)21210

0.0%

-12.9%

ExponentialBetter by 12.9 %pts
Chain (CH-0234)11101

10.0%

41.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 31.3 %pts
Classic Vest, L (VE-C304-L)12102

20.0%

50.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 30.4 %pts
Classic Vest, M (VE-C304-M)41383

7.9%

16.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 8.5 %pts
Classic Vest, S (VE-C304-S)1516-1

-6.3%

-22.3%

ExponentialBetter by 16.1 %pts
Fender Set - Mountain (FE-6654)291910

52.6%

6.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 46.1 %pts
Front Brakes (FB-9873)21192

10.5%

-1.1%

HoltWintersWorse by 9.4 %pts
Front Derailleur (FD-2342)18171

5.9%

13.2%

ExponentialBetter by 7.3 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, L (GL-F110-L)182196-14

-7.1%

-12.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 5.6 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, M (GL-F110-M)1618-2

-11.1%

-22.1%

RegressionBetter by 11.0 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, S (GL-F110-S)15123

25.0%

27.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 2.5 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, L (GL-H102-L)440

0.0%

-20.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 20.2 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, M (GL-H102-M)513714

37.8%

14.5%

HoltWintersWorse by 23.3 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, S (GL-H102-S)35278

29.6%

30.4%

RegressionBetter by 0.8 %pts
Headlights - Dual-Beam (LT-H902)2728-1

-3.6%

13.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 9.6 %pts
Headlights - Weatherproof (LT-H903)853

60.0%

115.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 55.2 %pts
Hitch Rack - 4-Bike (RA-H123)23203

15.0%

34.9%

RegressionBetter by 19.9 %pts
HL Bottom Bracket (BB-9108)2325-2

-8.0%

17.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 9.5 %pts
HL Crankset (CS-9183)32293

10.3%

-5.0%

HoltWintersWorse by 5.3 %pts
HL Fork (FK-9939)13130

0.0%

-7.4%

ExponentialBetter by 7.4 %pts
HL Headset (HS-3479)382711

40.7%

16.4%

ExponentialWorse by 24.3 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M94B-38)880

0.0%

31.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 31.5 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M94B-42)14122

16.7%

5.6%

HoltWintersWorse by 11.1 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M94B-44)10100

0.0%

12.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 12.8 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 46 (FR-M94B-46)550

0.0%

-0.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 0.2 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M94B-48)16160

0.0%

20.0%

ExponentialBetter by 20.0 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 38 (FR-M94S-38)21183

16.7%

-38.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 21.3 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M94S-42)14140

0.0%

-50.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 50.1 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M94S-44)16160

0.0%

-31.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 31.3 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 46 (FR-M94S-46)23212

9.5%

-24.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 14.8 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M94S-52)20191

5.3%

7.7%

ExponentialBetter by 2.4 %pts
HL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M928)1819-1

-5.3%

-35.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 30.1 %pts
HL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M918)19172

11.8%

14.9%

ExponentialBetter by 3.1 %pts
HL Mountain Pedal (PD-M562)16151

6.7%

61.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 54.4 %pts
HL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M928)15141

7.1%

10.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 3.4 %pts
HL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M940)22193

15.8%

-3.4%

HoltWintersWorse by 12.4 %pts
HL Mountain Tire (TI-M823)11101

10.0%

13.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 3.3 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R92B-44)4043-3

-7.0%

7.2%

RegressionBetter by 0.2 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R92B-48)165187-22

-11.8%

-46.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 35.1 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R92B-52)417251166

66.1%

43.1%

HoltWintersWorse by 23.1 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R92B-58)16151

6.7%

-34.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 27.5 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R92B-62)110

0.0%

0.0%

LY+YOY Growth%The same
HL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R92R-44)359426-67

-15.7%

-29.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 14.1 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R92R-48)24240

0.0%

-21.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 21.2 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R92R-52)1819-1

-5.3%

-14.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 8.8 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 56 (FR-R92R-56)22211

4.8%

-27.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 22.7 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R92R-58)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
HL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R92R-62)1338350

60.2%

45.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 15.0 %pts
HL Road Front Wheel (FW-R820)38299

31.0%

23.5%

HoltWintersWorse by 7.6 %pts
HL Road Handlebars (HB-R956)19181

5.6%

15.1%

ExponentialBetter by 9.5 %pts
HL Road Pedal (PD-R853)36333

9.1%

0.0%

HoltWintersWorse by 9.1 %pts
HL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R820)18153

20.0%

11.0%

RegressionWorse by 9.0 %pts
HL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R995)16115

45.5%

41.1%

RegressionWorse by 4.3 %pts
HL Road Tire (TI-R982)20146

42.9%

16.8%

HoltWintersWorse by 26.0 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 46 (FR-T98U-46)18135

38.5%

15.0%

ExponentialWorse by 23.5 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T98U-50)550

0.0%

-7.7%

RegressionBetter by 7.7 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T98U-54)18153

20.0%

23.5%

RegressionBetter by 3.5 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 60 (FR-T98U-60)41339122

5.6%

-4.6%

RegressionWorse by 1.1 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 46 (FR-T98Y-46)1451369

6.6%

-5.9%

RegressionWorse by 0.7 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T98Y-50)89-1

-11.1%

-27.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 16.8 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T98Y-54)1891881

0.5%

12.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 11.4 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 60 (FR-T98Y-60)440

0.0%

25.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 25.0 %pts
HL Touring Handlebars (HB-T928)20173

17.6%

3.3%

HoltWintersWorse by 14.3 %pts
HL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T924)13121

8.3%

-24.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 16.4 %pts
Hydration Pack - 70 oz. (HY-1023-70)78-1

-12.5%

19.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 7.3 %pts
LL Bottom Bracket (BB-7421)21192

10.5%

60.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 49.8 %pts
LL Crankset (CS-4759)1517-2

-11.8%

-40.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 28.2 %pts
LL Fork (FK-1639)21192

10.5%

-18.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 8.2 %pts
LL Headset (HS-0296)24222

9.1%

11.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 1.9 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M21B-40)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M21B-42)29263

11.5%

-15.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 3.7 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M21B-44)440

0.0%

-16.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 16.1 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M21B-48)440

0.0%

81.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 81.8 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 52 (FR-M21B-52)20016535

21.2%

-35.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 13.9 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 40 (FR-M21S-40)20614561

42.1%

35.5%

RegressionWorse by 6.6 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M21S-42)1293

33.3%

-8.0%

RegressionWorse by 25.3 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M21S-44)184195-11

-5.6%

-28.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 22.5 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M21S-48)220

0.0%

50.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 50.0 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 52 (FR-M21S-52)257284-27

-9.5%

-29.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 19.6 %pts
LL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M423)761

16.7%

10.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 6.2 %pts
LL Mountain Pedal (PD-M282)1284

50.0%

38.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 11.5 %pts
LL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M423)880

0.0%

29.5%

RegressionBetter by 29.5 %pts
LL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M236)110

0.0%

-100.0%

RegressionBetter by 100.0 %pts
LL Mountain Tire (TI-M267)15150

0.0%

-55.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 55.9 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R38B-44)30282

7.1%

-8.7%

RegressionBetter by 1.5 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R38B-48)642

50.0%

115.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 65.0 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R38B-52)972

28.6%

4.7%

HoltWintersWorse by 23.8 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R38B-58)2628-2

-7.1%

17.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 10.7 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 60 (FR-R38B-60)22211

4.8%

16.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 11.6 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R38B-62)990

0.0%

-0.8%

RegressionBetter by 0.8 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R38R-44)285315-30

-9.5%

7.9%

RegressionWorse by 1.6 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R38R-48)16160

0.0%

23.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 23.0 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R38R-52)27198

42.1%

12.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 29.3 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R38R-58)290159131

82.4%

76.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 5.9 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R38R-60)23119140

20.9%

39.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 18.9 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R38R-62)12102

20.0%

0.5%

RegressionWorse by 19.5 %pts
LL Road Front Wheel (FW-R623)440

0.0%

60.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 60.3 %pts
LL Road Handlebars (HB-R504)440

0.0%

-11.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 11.9 %pts
LL Road Pedal (PD-R347)36360

0.0%

-6.8%

ExponentialBetter by 6.8 %pts
LL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R623)22220

0.0%

16.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 16.8 %pts
LL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R581)528554-26

-4.7%

-43.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 38.8 %pts
LL Road Tire (TI-R092)1819-1

-5.3%

22.6%

RegressionBetter by 17.3 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 44 (FR-T67U-44)2122-1

-4.5%

-8.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 4.1 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T67U-50)16160

0.0%

-4.2%

RegressionBetter by 4.2 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T67U-54)3840-2

-5.0%

2.1%

RegressionWorse by 2.9 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 58 (FR-T67U-58)330

0.0%

-2.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 2.9 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 62 (FR-T67U-62)23194

21.1%

3.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 17.5 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 44 (FR-T67Y-44)1385

62.5%

63.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 0.9 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T67Y-50)24231

4.3%

-13.7%

ExponentialBetter by 9.4 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T67Y-54)248267-19

-7.1%

-46.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 39.0 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 58 (FR-T67Y-58)14140

0.0%

-5.9%

RegressionBetter by 5.9 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 62 (FR-T67Y-62)11110

0.0%

25.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 25.3 %pts
LL Touring Handlebars (HB-T721)1415-1

-6.7%

-10.4%

RegressionBetter by 3.7 %pts
LL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T312)10100

0.0%

23.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 23.7 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, L (LJ-0192-L)1920-1

-5.0%

-14.1%

ExponentialBetter by 9.1 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, M (LJ-0192-M)25920653

25.7%

34.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 8.4 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, S (LJ-0192-S)1516-1

-6.3%

-26.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 20.0 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, XL (LJ-0192-X)1011-1

-9.1%

-2.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 6.9 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, L (SB-M891-L)24213

14.3%

-14.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 0.1 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, M (SB-M891-M)20191

5.3%

-4.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 0.4 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, S (SB-M891-S)6568-3

-4.4%

-14.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 9.7 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, L (SH-M897-L)2527-2

-7.4%

-30.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 22.9 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, M (SH-M897-M)25232

8.7%

-8.7%

LY+YOY Growth%The same
Men's Sports Shorts, S (SH-M897-S)20416440

24.4%

11.5%

HoltWintersWorse by 12.8 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, XL (SH-M897-X)330

0.0%

-34.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 34.8 %pts
Minipump (PU-0452)277168109

64.9%

48.8%

HoltWintersWorse by 16.1 %pts
ML Bottom Bracket (BB-8107)95914

4.4%

23.1%

ExponentialBetter by 18.7 %pts
ML Crankset (CS-6583)16142

14.3%

24.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 10.1 %pts
ML Fork (FK-5136)23230

0.0%

-34.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 34.4 %pts
ML Headset (HS-2451)990

0.0%

-26.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 26.6 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M63B-38)17170

0.0%

29.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 29.5 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M63B-40)24213

14.3%

-8.2%

HoltWintersWorse by 6.1 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M63B-44)3336-3

-8.3%

-15.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 7.1 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M63B-48)41332588

27.1%

5.8%

HoltWintersWorse by 21.3 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 38 (FR-M63S-38)862

33.3%

29.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 3.7 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 40 (FR-M63S-40)1819-1

-5.3%

-28.4%

RegressionBetter by 23.1 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 42 (FR-M63S-42)27261

3.8%

14.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 10.8 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 46 (FR-M63S-46)36628185

30.2%

47.2%

ExponentialBetter by 17.0 %pts
ML Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M762)29254

16.0%

4.4%

HoltWintersWorse by 11.6 %pts
ML Mountain Handlebars (HB-M763)3132-1

-3.1%

-32.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 28.8 %pts
ML Mountain Pedal (PD-M340)871

14.3%

9.4%

HoltWintersWorse by 4.9 %pts
ML Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M762)770

0.0%

-12.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 12.2 %pts
ML Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M798)770

0.0%

-32.4%

ExponentialBetter by 32.4 %pts
ML Mountain Tire (TI-M602)18016911

6.5%

-34.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 28.3 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R72R-44)3334-1

-2.9%

-10.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 7.5 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R72R-48)336381-45

-11.8%

-23.2%

RegressionBetter by 11.4 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R72R-52)204226-22

-9.7%

3.3%

HoltWintersWorse by 6.4 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R72R-58)13121

8.3%

-43.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 35.2 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R72R-60)2324-1

-4.2%

-26.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 22.4 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 38 (FR-R72Y-38)12111

9.1%

36.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 27.3 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 40 (FR-R72Y-40)20155

33.3%

55.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 22.4 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 42 (FR-R72Y-42)21192

10.5%

21.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 10.9 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 44 (FR-R72Y-44)36279

33.3%

50.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 17.3 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 48 (FR-R72Y-48)110

0.0%

165.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 165.4 %pts
ML Road Front Wheel (FW-R762)24619848

24.2%

1.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 22.3 %pts
ML Road Handlebars (HB-R720)440

0.0%

5.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 5.0 %pts
ML Road Pedal (PD-R563)268292-24

-8.2%

-26.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 18.3 %pts
ML Road Rear Wheel (RW-R762)14140

0.0%

5.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 5.6 %pts
ML Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R908)440

0.0%

-21.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 21.2 %pts
ML Road Tire (TI-R628)2021-1

-4.8%

-34.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 29.3 %pts
ML Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T762)12102

20.0%

31.8%

RegressionBetter by 11.8 %pts
Mountain Bike Socks, L (SO-B909-L)11110

0.0%

4.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 4.7 %pts
Mountain Bike Socks, M (SO-B909-M)25214

19.0%

7.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 11.7 %pts
Mountain Bottle Cage (BC-M005)23167

43.8%

2.7%

HoltWintersWorse by 41.1 %pts
Mountain Pump (PU-M044)2223-1

-4.3%

-33.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 29.3 %pts
Mountain Tire Tube (TT-M928)37298

27.6%

35.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 7.9 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 38 (BK-M82B-38)440

0.0%

23.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 23.7 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 42 (BK-M82B-42)3993981

0.3%

-10.3%

RegressionBetter by 10.0 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 44 (BK-M82B-44)42411

2.4%

-5.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 3.1 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 48 (BK-M82B-48)981

12.5%

-33.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 20.7 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 38 (BK-M82S-38)880

0.0%

-3.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 3.6 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 42 (BK-M82S-42)20200

0.0%

-54.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 54.2 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 44 (BK-M82S-44)19190

0.0%

-10.9%

RegressionBetter by 10.9 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 48 (BK-M82S-48)330

0.0%

-39.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 39.4 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 38 (BK-M68B-38)23212

9.5%

-14.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 4.8 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 42 (BK-M68B-42)25241

4.2%

17.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 13.3 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 46 (BK-M68B-46)1517-2

-11.8%

-27.2%

ExponentialBetter by 15.4 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 38 (BK-M68S-38)18213943

30.9%

34.9%

ExponentialBetter by 4.0 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 42 (BK-M68S-42)12120

0.0%

53.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 53.6 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 46 (BK-M68S-46)12120

0.0%

-3.5%

ExponentialBetter by 3.5 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 38 (BK-M47B-38)3438-4

-10.5%

-39.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 28.7 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 40 (BK-M47B-40)570647-77

-11.9%

-23.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 11.8 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 44 (BK-M47B-44)10100

0.0%

4.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 4.5 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 48 (BK-M47B-48)21018822

11.7%

-9.4%

HoltWintersWorse by 2.3 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 38 (BK-M38S-38)29245

20.8%

-7.3%

HoltWintersWorse by 13.5 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 40 (BK-M38S-40)355378-23

-6.1%

19.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 13.4 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 42 (BK-M38S-42)17107

70.0%

124.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 54.7 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 46 (BK-M38S-46)28262

7.7%

49.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 41.4 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 40 (BK-M18B-40)8991-2

-2.2%

24.6%

RegressionBetter by 22.4 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 42 (BK-M18B-42)22211

4.8%

18.2%

RegressionBetter by 13.4 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 44 (BK-M18B-44)24016674

44.6%

-3.4%

HoltWintersWorse by 41.1 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 48 (BK-M18B-48)123160-37

-23.1%

-11.1%

HoltWintersWorse by 12.0 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 52 (BK-M18B-52)21201

5.0%

20.4%

RegressionBetter by 15.4 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 40 (BK-M18S-40)17170

0.0%

-4.4%

RegressionBetter by 4.4 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 42 (BK-M18S-42)223264-41

-15.5%

-24.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 9.3 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 44 (BK-M18S-44)3334-1

-2.9%

-10.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 7.5 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 48 (BK-M18S-48)18153

20.0%

3.7%

HoltWintersWorse by 16.3 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 52 (BK-M18S-52)27243

12.5%

-4.6%

ExponentialWorse by 7.9 %pts
Patch Kit/8 Patches (PK-7098)34325093

37.2%

19.4%

HoltWintersWorse by 17.8 %pts
Racing Socks, L (SO-R809-L)1213-1

-7.7%

-42.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 35.0 %pts
Racing Socks, M (SO-R809-M)910-1

-10.0%

-30.2%

RegressionBetter by 20.2 %pts
Rear Brakes (RB-9231)16142

14.3%

1.6%

ExponentialWorse by 12.7 %pts
Rear Derailleur (RD-2308)6372-9

-12.5%

-23.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 10.9 %pts
Road Bottle Cage (BC-R205)1314-1

-7.1%

-22.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 15.4 %pts
Road Tire Tube (TT-R982)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Road-150 Red, 44 (BK-R93R-44)2223-1

-4.3%

1.5%

ExponentialWorse by 2.9 %pts
Road-150 Red, 48 (BK-R93R-48)2227-5

-18.5%

-12.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 5.9 %pts
Road-150 Red, 52 (BK-R93R-52)220

0.0%

-11.6%

ExponentialBetter by 11.6 %pts
Road-150 Red, 56 (BK-R93R-56)14122

16.7%

19.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 2.7 %pts
Road-150 Red, 62 (BK-R93R-62)1415-1

-6.7%

-1.9%

HoltWintersWorse by 4.7 %pts
Road-250 Black, 44 (BK-R89B-44)305172133

77.3%

59.5%

ExponentialWorse by 17.8 %pts
Road-250 Black, 48 (BK-R89B-48)355390-35

-9.0%

0.3%

HoltWintersWorse by 8.7 %pts
Road-250 Black, 52 (BK-R89B-52)1082

25.0%

-25.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 0.8 %pts
Road-250 Black, 58 (BK-R89B-58)330

0.0%

112.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 112.3 %pts
Road-250 Red, 44 (BK-R89R-44)57651165

12.7%

7.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 4.8 %pts
Road-250 Red, 48 (BK-R89R-48)5705682

0.4%

-0.7%

ExponentialBetter by 0.4 %pts
Road-250 Red, 52 (BK-R89R-52)1284

50.0%

-6.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 44.0 %pts
Road-250 Red, 58 (BK-R89R-58)17152

13.3%

-8.9%

ExponentialWorse by 4.5 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R79Y-40)17134

30.8%

-23.2%

HoltWintersWorse by 7.5 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R79Y-42)19190

0.0%

-25.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 25.2 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R79Y-44)1315-2

-13.3%

-24.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 11.4 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R79Y-48)25187

38.9%

27.9%

RegressionWorse by 11.0 %pts
Road-450 Red, 44 (BK-R68R-44)21210

0.0%

-10.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 10.0 %pts
Road-450 Red, 48 (BK-R68R-48)74731

1.4%

36.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 35.2 %pts
Road-450 Red, 52 (BK-R68R-52)1617-1

-5.9%

-17.4%

ExponentialBetter by 11.6 %pts
Road-450 Red, 58 (BK-R68R-58)42366

16.7%

30.3%

RegressionBetter by 13.7 %pts
Road-450 Red, 60 (BK-R68R-60)330

0.0%

-27.3%

RegressionBetter by 27.3 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 38 (BK-R64Y-38)550

0.0%

-22.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 22.9 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R64Y-40)16133

23.1%

11.4%

RegressionWorse by 11.7 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R64Y-42)1415-1

-6.7%

-14.6%

RegressionBetter by 7.9 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R64Y-44)1011-1

-9.1%

-0.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 8.3 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R64Y-48)3739-2

-5.1%

-22.8%

ExponentialBetter by 17.7 %pts
Road-650 Black, 44 (BK-R50B-44)871

14.3%

-10.6%

RegressionWorse by 3.6 %pts
Road-650 Black, 48 (BK-R50B-48)770

0.0%

3.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 3.7 %pts
Road-650 Black, 52 (BK-R50B-52)10100

0.0%

32.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 32.1 %pts
Road-650 Black, 58 (BK-R50B-58)20173

17.6%

-7.1%

HoltWintersWorse by 10.6 %pts
Road-650 Black, 60 (BK-R50B-60)26206

30.0%

33.9%

ExponentialBetter by 3.9 %pts
Road-650 Black, 62 (BK-R50B-62)29263

11.5%

1.3%

ExponentialWorse by 10.2 %pts
Road-650 Red, 44 (BK-R50R-44)14140

0.0%

7.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 7.7 %pts
Road-650 Red, 48 (BK-R50R-48)330

0.0%

-100.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 100.0 %pts
Road-650 Red, 52 (BK-R50R-52)34340

0.0%

-4.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 4.5 %pts
Road-650 Red, 58 (BK-R50R-58)752

40.0%

31.4%

HoltWintersWorse by 8.6 %pts
Road-650 Red, 60 (BK-R50R-60)2830-2

-6.7%

-5.9%

RegressionWorse by 0.8 %pts
Road-650 Red, 62 (BK-R50R-62)36931950

15.7%

3.9%

ExponentialWorse by 11.8 %pts
Road-750 Black, 44 (BK-R19B-44)33321

3.1%

13.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 10.2 %pts
Road-750 Black, 48 (BK-R19B-48)220

0.0%

15.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 15.0 %pts
Road-750 Black, 52 (BK-R19B-52)13130

0.0%

29.2%

RegressionBetter by 29.2 %pts
Road-750 Black, 58 (BK-R19B-58)19163

18.8%

31.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 12.5 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, L (SJ-0194-L)15114

36.4%

83.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 47.0 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, M (SJ-0194-M)330

0.0%

2.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 2.8 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, S (SJ-0194-S)214273-59

-21.6%

-32.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 11.3 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, XL (SJ-0194-X)1495

55.6%

69.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 14.1 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Black (HL-U509)3435-1

-2.9%

-14.8%

RegressionBetter by 12.0 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Blue (HL-U509-B)330

0.0%

-29.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 29.0 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Red (HL-U509-R)382711

40.7%

26.4%

HoltWintersWorse by 14.3 %pts
Taillights - Battery-Powered (LT-T990)13130

0.0%

23.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 23.0 %pts
Touring Front Wheel (FW-T905)1819-1

-5.3%

32.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 26.7 %pts
Touring Pedal (PD-T852)23230

0.0%

-31.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 31.4 %pts
Touring Rear Wheel (RW-T905)21117338

22.0%

18.7%

ExponentialWorse by 3.3 %pts
Touring Tire (TI-T723)27234

17.4%

12.3%

HoltWintersWorse by 5.1 %pts
Touring Tire Tube (TT-T092)2225-3

-12.0%

-27.3%

ExponentialBetter by 15.3 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 46 (BK-T79U-46)330

0.0%

-19.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 19.3 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 50 (BK-T79U-50)19136

46.2%

21.3%

HoltWintersWorse by 24.8 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 54 (BK-T79U-54)651

20.0%

25.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 5.0 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 60 (BK-T79U-60)21113378

58.6%

33.4%

HoltWintersWorse by 25.3 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 46 (BK-T79Y-46)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Touring-1000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T79Y-50)13121

8.3%

11.0%

RegressionBetter by 2.6 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T79Y-54)33728849

17.0%

10.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 6.9 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 60 (BK-T79Y-60)431

33.3%

27.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 5.4 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 46 (BK-T44U-46)110

0.0%

34.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 34.6 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 50 (BK-T44U-50)2122-1

-4.5%

-3.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 1.2 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 54 (BK-T44U-54)17161

6.3%

21.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 15.4 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 60 (BK-T44U-60)14140

0.0%

-24.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 24.4 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 44 (BK-T18U-44)35350

0.0%

-13.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 13.9 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 50 (BK-T18U-50)910-1

-10.0%

-2.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 7.3 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 54 (BK-T18U-54)440

0.0%

2.8%

ExponentialBetter by 2.8 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 58 (BK-T18U-58)24213

14.3%

25.1%

RegressionBetter by 10.8 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 62 (BK-T18U-62)761

16.7%

29.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 12.9 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 44 (BK-T18Y-44)72565372

11.0%

-0.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 10.7 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T18Y-50)294302-8

-2.6%

-35.6%

RegressionBetter by 32.9 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T18Y-54)69162665

10.4%

20.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 9.9 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 58 (BK-T18Y-58)880

0.0%

-34.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 34.1 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 62 (BK-T18Y-62)2342313

1.3%

-9.9%

RegressionBetter by 8.6 %pts
Touring-Panniers, Large (PA-T100)102109-7

-6.4%

-44.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 38.3 %pts
Water Bottle - 30 oz. (WB-H098)27261

3.8%

-24.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 20.6 %pts
Women's Mountain Shorts, L (SH-W890-L)21192

10.5%

18.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 8.2 %pts
Women's Mountain Shorts, M (SH-W890-M)13121

8.3%

-17.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 9.4 %pts
Women's Mountain Shorts, S (SH-W890-S)651

20.0%

47.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 27.7 %pts
Women's Tights, L (TG-W091-L)20511788

75.2%

63.7%

ExponentialWorse by 11.5 %pts
Women's Tights, M (TG-W091-M)45342528

6.6%

-2.2%

RegressionWorse by 4.4 %pts
Women's Tights, S (TG-W091-S)1516-1

-6.3%

2.1%

HoltWintersWorse by 4.1 %pts
Total20,19418,6821,5128.1%-0.6% Better in 212 out of 299 items (70.9%)
Weighted Average % Error15.5%Weighted Average % Error (Alt)13.8%Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)12.9%Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)9.9
Weighted Average % Error-Statistics21.0%Weighted Average % Error (Alt)-Statistics6.3%Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)-Statistics23.3%Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)-Statistics13.1

Warehouse(DE) - Forecast in 4 - Aug
 ForecastActualVariancePercent ErrorStats Pct ErrorBest AlgorithmHuman vs. Statistics
All-Purpose Bike Stand (ST-1401)203207-4

-1.9%

28.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 26.1 %pts
AWC Logo Cap (CA-1098)550

0.0%

38.4%

RegressionBetter by 38.4 %pts
Bike Wash - Dissolver (CL-9009)440

0.0%

7.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 7.5 %pts
Cable Lock (LO-C100)440

0.0%

3.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 3.6 %pts
Chain (CH-0234)550

0.0%

-32.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 32.3 %pts
Classic Vest, L (VE-C304-L)110

0.0%

97.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 97.2 %pts
Classic Vest, M (VE-C304-M)1213-1

-7.7%

-25.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 17.3 %pts
Classic Vest, S (VE-C304-S)67-1

-14.3%

-8.8%

ExponentialWorse by 5.4 %pts
Fender Set - Mountain (FE-6654)752

40.0%

50.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 10.0 %pts
Front Brakes (FB-9873)110

0.0%

52.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 52.8 %pts
Front Derailleur (FD-2342)220

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Full-Finger Gloves, L (GL-F110-L)196213-17

-8.0%

-38.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 30.0 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, M (GL-F110-M)440

0.0%

-15.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 15.4 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, S (GL-F110-S)1011-1

-9.1%

-29.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 20.6 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, L (GL-H102-L)330

0.0%

61.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 61.0 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, M (GL-H102-M)25322528

12.4%

4.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 7.7 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, S (GL-H102-S)313344-31

-9.0%

-15.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 6.2 %pts
Headlights - Dual-Beam (LT-H902)54522

3.8%

16.8%

ExponentialBetter by 12.9 %pts
Headlights - Weatherproof (LT-H903)1082

25.0%

19.3%

RegressionWorse by 5.7 %pts
Hitch Rack - 4-Bike (RA-H123)541

25.0%

1.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 23.4 %pts
HL Bottom Bracket (BB-9108)220

0.0%

8.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 8.0 %pts
HL Crankset (CS-9183)330

0.0%

4.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 4.1 %pts
HL Fork (FK-9939)330

0.0%

3.4%

RegressionBetter by 3.4 %pts
HL Headset (HS-3479)220

0.0%

12.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 12.4 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M94B-38)651

20.0%

24.1%

RegressionBetter by 4.1 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M94B-42)220

0.0%

21.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 21.1 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M94B-44)1113-2

-15.4%

-11.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 4.0 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 46 (FR-M94B-46)330

0.0%

24.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 24.0 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M94B-48)330

0.0%

6.1%

ExponentialBetter by 6.1 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 38 (FR-M94S-38)220

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M94S-42)220

0.0%

0.0%

LY+YOY Growth%The same
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 46 (FR-M94S-46)911-2

-18.2%

-9.8%

RegressionWorse by 8.3 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M94S-52)440

0.0%

15.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 15.7 %pts
HL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M928)16133

23.1%

12.0%

ExponentialWorse by 11.1 %pts
HL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M918)20191

5.3%

29.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 23.8 %pts
HL Mountain Pedal (PD-M562)1174

57.1%

67.4%

ExponentialBetter by 10.2 %pts
HL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M928)1315-2

-13.3%

-9.0%

RegressionWorse by 4.4 %pts
HL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M940)330

0.0%

-46.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 46.9 %pts
HL Mountain Tire (TI-M823)220

0.0%

5.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 5.3 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R92B-44)18011070

63.6%

70.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 6.3 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R92B-48)133134-1

-0.7%

-17.9%

RegressionBetter by 17.1 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R92B-52)70673

4.5%

-20.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 15.6 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R92B-58)770

0.0%

8.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 8.8 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R92B-62)14140

0.0%

-5.9%

ExponentialBetter by 5.9 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R92R-44)675314

26.4%

-7.6%

HoltWintersWorse by 18.9 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R92R-48)1011-1

-9.1%

-34.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 25.5 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R92R-52)220

0.0%

23.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 23.9 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 56 (FR-R92R-56)541

25.0%

35.5%

RegressionBetter by 10.5 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R92R-58)15150

0.0%

-18.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 18.2 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R92R-62)1209030

33.3%

20.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 12.8 %pts
HL Road Front Wheel (FW-R820)541

25.0%

30.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 5.3 %pts
HL Road Handlebars (HB-R956)110

0.0%

36.1%

RegressionBetter by 36.1 %pts
HL Road Pedal (PD-R853)1394

44.4%

28.7%

RegressionWorse by 15.7 %pts
HL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R820)1091

11.1%

-5.0%

HoltWintersWorse by 6.1 %pts
HL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R995)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
HL Road Tire (TI-R982)1315-2

-13.3%

-4.9%

ExponentialWorse by 8.4 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 46 (FR-T98U-46)13130

0.0%

-18.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 18.1 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T98U-50)110

0.0%

-6.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 6.7 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 60 (FR-T98U-60)29627422

8.0%

14.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 6.7 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 46 (FR-T98Y-46)49490

0.0%

0.7%

RegressionBetter by 0.7 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T98Y-50)1314-1

-7.1%

0.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 6.6 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T98Y-54)22821810

4.6%

-3.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 0.7 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 60 (FR-T98Y-60)1112-1

-8.3%

-12.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 4.0 %pts
HL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T924)330

0.0%

9.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 9.9 %pts
Hydration Pack - 70 oz. (HY-1023-70)1214-2

-14.3%

-6.5%

ExponentialWorse by 7.8 %pts
LL Bottom Bracket (BB-7421)1214-2

-14.3%

11.4%

HoltWintersWorse by 2.9 %pts
LL Crankset (CS-4759)15141

7.1%

-29.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 21.9 %pts
LL Fork (FK-1639)1394

44.4%

11.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 33.2 %pts
LL Headset (HS-0296)1617-1

-5.9%

23.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 17.3 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M21B-40)15123

25.0%

-26.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 1.0 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M21B-42)220

0.0%

-33.3%

RegressionBetter by 33.3 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M21B-44)24204

20.0%

9.6%

HoltWintersWorse by 10.4 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M21B-48)21192

10.5%

-33.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 23.1 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 52 (FR-M21B-52)256278-22

-7.9%

-10.0%

ExponentialBetter by 2.1 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 40 (FR-M21S-40)17814335

24.5%

29.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 5.4 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M21S-42)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M21S-44)189194-5

-2.6%

16.7%

RegressionBetter by 14.1 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M21S-48)330

0.0%

-57.9%

ExponentialBetter by 57.9 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 52 (FR-M21S-52)382810

35.7%

8.0%

RegressionWorse by 27.8 %pts
LL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M423)1073

42.9%

-12.5%

HoltWintersWorse by 30.4 %pts
LL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M243)19163

18.8%

31.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 12.3 %pts
LL Mountain Pedal (PD-M282)1011-1

-9.1%

5.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 3.9 %pts
LL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M423)1113-2

-15.4%

33.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 18.2 %pts
LL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M236)2021-1

-4.8%

-5.6%

ExponentialBetter by 0.8 %pts
LL Mountain Tire (TI-M267)660

0.0%

6.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 6.5 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R38B-44)110

0.0%

205.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 205.5 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R38B-48)110

0.0%

13.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 13.3 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R38B-52)1112-1

-8.3%

-25.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 17.5 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R38B-58)440

0.0%

-21.0%

ExponentialBetter by 21.0 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 60 (FR-R38B-60)550

0.0%

-6.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 6.7 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R38B-62)110

0.0%

62.7%

RegressionBetter by 62.7 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R38R-44)26817197

56.7%

35.5%

HoltWintersWorse by 21.2 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R38R-48)1719-2

-10.5%

-37.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 27.3 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R38R-52)1415-1

-6.7%

10.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 3.5 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R38R-58)7882-4

-4.9%

-35.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 30.3 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R38R-60)167176-9

-5.1%

-16.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 11.8 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R38R-62)11110

0.0%

10.1%

ExponentialBetter by 10.1 %pts
LL Road Front Wheel (FW-R623)660

0.0%

-2.2%

ExponentialBetter by 2.2 %pts
LL Road Handlebars (HB-R504)13130

0.0%

-2.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 2.4 %pts
LL Road Pedal (PD-R347)2022-2

-9.1%

-33.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 24.4 %pts
LL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R623)440

0.0%

23.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 23.9 %pts
LL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R581)1311247

5.6%

-18.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 12.8 %pts
LL Road Tire (TI-R092)761

16.7%

15.0%

HoltWintersWorse by 1.7 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 44 (FR-T67U-44)550

0.0%

-27.4%

ExponentialBetter by 27.4 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T67U-50)15141

7.1%

-12.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 4.9 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T67U-54)1112-1

-8.3%

-21.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 12.8 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 58 (FR-T67U-58)11110

0.0%

17.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 17.5 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 62 (FR-T67U-62)1720-3

-15.0%

-11.7%

ExponentialWorse by 3.3 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 44 (FR-T67Y-44)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T67Y-50)871

14.3%

-7.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 6.7 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T67Y-54)275348-73

-21.0%

-13.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 7.7 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 58 (FR-T67Y-58)871

14.3%

3.4%

RegressionWorse by 10.9 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 62 (FR-T67Y-62)330

0.0%

-6.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 6.8 %pts
LL Touring Handlebars (HB-T721)110

0.0%

21.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 21.4 %pts
LL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T312)110

0.0%

31.5%

ExponentialBetter by 31.5 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, M (LJ-0192-M)6168-7

-10.3%

-21.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 11.6 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, S (LJ-0192-S)13103

30.0%

56.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 26.6 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, XL (LJ-0192-X)550

0.0%

-15.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 15.7 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, L (SB-M891-L)990

0.0%

13.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 13.9 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, M (SB-M891-M)880

0.0%

-13.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 13.5 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, S (SB-M891-S)210219-9

-4.1%

-34.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 30.4 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, L (SH-M897-L)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Men's Sports Shorts, M (SH-M897-M)1214-2

-14.3%

-24.4%

RegressionBetter by 10.1 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, S (SH-M897-S)63558

14.5%

4.8%

HoltWintersWorse by 9.8 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, XL (SH-M897-X)660

0.0%

-36.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 36.2 %pts
Minipump (PU-0452)417489-72

-14.7%

-11.9%

HoltWintersWorse by 2.8 %pts
ML Bottom Bracket (BB-8107)20719413

6.7%

-21.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 15.0 %pts
ML Crankset (CS-6583)1275

71.4%

62.3%

HoltWintersWorse by 9.1 %pts
ML Fork (FK-5136)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
ML Headset (HS-2451)220

0.0%

30.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 30.1 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M63B-38)330

0.0%

77.9%

RegressionBetter by 77.9 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M63B-40)11101

10.0%

17.2%

ExponentialBetter by 7.2 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M63B-44)16115

45.5%

36.0%

HoltWintersWorse by 9.5 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M63B-48)9596-1

-1.0%

-5.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 4.5 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 38 (FR-M63S-38)1920-1

-5.0%

-12.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 7.9 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 40 (FR-M63S-40)770

0.0%

-15.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 15.9 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 42 (FR-M63S-42)330

0.0%

24.8%

RegressionBetter by 24.8 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 46 (FR-M63S-46)41347

20.6%

15.3%

RegressionWorse by 5.3 %pts
ML Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M762)16151

6.7%

-9.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 2.6 %pts
ML Mountain Handlebars (HB-M763)550

0.0%

-18.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 18.8 %pts
ML Mountain Pedal (PD-M340)880

0.0%

-24.3%

ExponentialBetter by 24.3 %pts
ML Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M762)330

0.0%

-19.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 19.4 %pts
ML Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M798)110

0.0%

-2.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 2.4 %pts
ML Mountain Tire (TI-M602)352436-84

-19.3%

-13.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 5.8 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R72R-44)550

0.0%

-28.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 28.9 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R72R-48)14140

0.0%

17.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 17.2 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R72R-52)176203-27

-13.3%

-8.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 5.3 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R72R-58)20182

11.1%

-6.8%

HoltWintersWorse by 4.4 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R72R-60)220

0.0%

1.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 1.9 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 38 (FR-R72Y-38)1011-1

-9.1%

-14.0%

RegressionBetter by 4.9 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 40 (FR-R72Y-40)220

0.0%

-65.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 65.0 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 42 (FR-R72Y-42)1516-1

-6.3%

7.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 0.8 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 44 (FR-R72Y-44)3032-2

-6.3%

-12.7%

RegressionBetter by 6.5 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 48 (FR-R72Y-48)1618-2

-11.1%

-27.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 16.2 %pts
ML Road Front Wheel (FW-R762)116144-28

-19.4%

-11.4%

RegressionWorse by 8.0 %pts
ML Road Handlebars (HB-R720)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
ML Road Pedal (PD-R563)53449

20.5%

51.6%

ExponentialBetter by 31.2 %pts
ML Road Rear Wheel (RW-R762)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
ML Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R908)330

0.0%

-4.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 4.8 %pts
ML Road Tire (TI-R628)28280

0.0%

-13.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 13.2 %pts
ML Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T762)1720-3

-15.0%

-8.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 6.6 %pts
Mountain Bike Socks, L (SO-B909-L)660

0.0%

-13.5%

RegressionBetter by 13.5 %pts
Mountain Bike Socks, M (SO-B909-M)1112-1

-8.3%

34.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 25.7 %pts
Mountain Bottle Cage (BC-M005)220

0.0%

-3.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 3.7 %pts
Mountain Pump (PU-M044)440

0.0%

-22.6%

RegressionBetter by 22.6 %pts
Mountain Tire Tube (TT-M928)19136

46.2%

98.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 51.9 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 38 (BK-M82B-38)1192

22.2%

32.6%

ExponentialBetter by 10.4 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 42 (BK-M82B-42)18180

0.0%

12.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 12.5 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 44 (BK-M82B-44)330

0.0%

58.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 58.0 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 48 (BK-M82B-48)29281

3.6%

-15.6%

ExponentialBetter by 12.1 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 38 (BK-M82S-38)321

50.0%

59.1%

RegressionBetter by 9.1 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 42 (BK-M82S-42)20200

0.0%

6.3%

ExponentialBetter by 6.3 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 44 (BK-M82S-44)330

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Mountain-100 Silver, 48 (BK-M82S-48)220

0.0%

9.4%

RegressionBetter by 9.4 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 38 (BK-M68B-38)220

0.0%

-39.0%

ExponentialBetter by 39.0 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 42 (BK-M68B-42)440

0.0%

2.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 2.2 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 46 (BK-M68B-46)1091

11.1%

23.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 12.6 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 38 (BK-M68S-38)97105-8

-7.6%

-21.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 13.6 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 42 (BK-M68S-42)660

0.0%

2.9%

ExponentialBetter by 2.9 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 46 (BK-M68S-46)220

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Mountain-300 Black, 38 (BK-M47B-38)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Mountain-300 Black, 40 (BK-M47B-40)51492

4.1%

25.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 21.5 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 44 (BK-M47B-44)220

0.0%

1.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 1.5 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 48 (BK-M47B-48)296302-6

-2.0%

-0.8%

HoltWintersWorse by 1.1 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 38 (BK-M38S-38)220

0.0%

44.4%

ExponentialBetter by 44.4 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 40 (BK-M38S-40)38132754

16.5%

16.3%

HoltWintersWorse by 0.3 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 42 (BK-M38S-42)12120

0.0%

25.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 25.0 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 46 (BK-M38S-46)15141

7.1%

-43.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 36.8 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 40 (BK-M18B-40)41374

10.8%

-3.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 7.3 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 42 (BK-M18B-42)20173

17.6%

13.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 4.2 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 44 (BK-M18B-44)243248-5

-2.0%

22.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 20.5 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 48 (BK-M18B-48)48480

0.0%

13.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 13.9 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 52 (BK-M18B-52)16142

14.3%

19.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 5.0 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 40 (BK-M18S-40)541

25.0%

14.1%

RegressionWorse by 10.9 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 42 (BK-M18S-42)79709

12.9%

8.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 4.2 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 44 (BK-M18S-44)188209-21

-10.0%

-16.1%

RegressionBetter by 6.0 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 48 (BK-M18S-48)440

0.0%

7.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 7.1 %pts
Patch Kit/8 Patches (PK-7098)170194-24

-12.4%

-29.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 17.3 %pts
Racing Socks, L (SO-R809-L)10100

0.0%

1.4%

RegressionBetter by 1.4 %pts
Racing Socks, M (SO-R809-M)220

0.0%

12.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 12.5 %pts
Rear Brakes (RB-9231)330

0.0%

-2.6%

RegressionBetter by 2.6 %pts
Rear Derailleur (RD-2308)1211174

3.4%

-6.1%

ExponentialBetter by 2.7 %pts
Road Bottle Cage (BC-R205)862

33.3%

41.4%

ExponentialBetter by 8.0 %pts
Road Tire Tube (TT-R982)13121

8.3%

-6.4%

RegressionWorse by 2.0 %pts
Road-150 Red, 44 (BK-R93R-44)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Road-150 Red, 48 (BK-R93R-48)16151

6.7%

4.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 1.8 %pts
Road-150 Red, 52 (BK-R93R-52)13121

8.3%

0.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 7.4 %pts
Road-150 Red, 56 (BK-R93R-56)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Road-150 Red, 62 (BK-R93R-62)440

0.0%

7.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 7.5 %pts
Road-250 Black, 44 (BK-R89B-44)116121-5

-4.1%

21.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 17.1 %pts
Road-250 Black, 48 (BK-R89B-48)15414410

6.9%

39.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 32.3 %pts
Road-250 Black, 52 (BK-R89B-52)11110

0.0%

43.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 43.7 %pts
Road-250 Black, 58 (BK-R89B-58)990

0.0%

69.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 69.4 %pts
Road-250 Red, 44 (BK-R89R-44)38380

0.0%

-12.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 12.3 %pts
Road-250 Red, 48 (BK-R89R-48)29628115

5.3%

12.6%

ExponentialBetter by 7.3 %pts
Road-250 Red, 52 (BK-R89R-52)15114

36.4%

20.1%

ExponentialWorse by 16.3 %pts
Road-250 Red, 58 (BK-R89R-58)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Road-350-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R79Y-40)14131

7.7%

-13.5%

ExponentialBetter by 5.8 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R79Y-42)660

0.0%

74.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 74.4 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R79Y-44)14140

0.0%

-23.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 23.0 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R79Y-48)20164

25.0%

39.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 14.5 %pts
Road-450 Red, 44 (BK-R68R-44)660

0.0%

-19.6%

RegressionBetter by 19.6 %pts
Road-450 Red, 48 (BK-R68R-48)19190

0.0%

4.6%

ExponentialBetter by 4.6 %pts
Road-450 Red, 52 (BK-R68R-52)910-1

-10.0%

-31.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 21.6 %pts
Road-450 Red, 58 (BK-R68R-58)130149-19

-12.8%

-32.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 19.6 %pts
Road-450 Red, 60 (BK-R68R-60)220

0.0%

50.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 50.0 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 38 (BK-R64Y-38)880

0.0%

-12.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 12.5 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R64Y-40)67-1

-14.3%

-0.8%

RegressionWorse by 13.5 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R64Y-42)1718-1

-5.6%

-32.9%

RegressionBetter by 27.3 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R64Y-44)220

0.0%

37.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 37.5 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R64Y-48)16151

6.7%

-1.4%

HoltWintersWorse by 5.2 %pts
Road-650 Black, 44 (BK-R50B-44)89-1

-11.1%

-22.4%

RegressionBetter by 11.3 %pts
Road-650 Black, 48 (BK-R50B-48)550

0.0%

9.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 9.0 %pts
Road-650 Black, 52 (BK-R50B-52)12102

20.0%

34.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 14.9 %pts
Road-650 Black, 58 (BK-R50B-58)660

0.0%

-4.9%

ExponentialBetter by 4.9 %pts
Road-650 Black, 60 (BK-R50B-60)431

33.3%

99.4%

ExponentialBetter by 66.1 %pts
Road-650 Black, 62 (BK-R50B-62)110

0.0%

171.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 171.1 %pts
Road-650 Red, 48 (BK-R50R-48)1617-1

-5.9%

-63.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 58.1 %pts
Road-650 Red, 52 (BK-R50R-52)12810721

19.6%

11.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 7.7 %pts
Road-650 Red, 58 (BK-R50R-58)1174

57.1%

27.1%

HoltWintersWorse by 30.1 %pts
Road-650 Red, 60 (BK-R50R-60)220

0.0%

-30.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 30.0 %pts
Road-650 Red, 62 (BK-R50R-62)36635313

3.7%

-3.9%

RegressionBetter by 0.2 %pts
Road-750 Black, 44 (BK-R19B-44)20155

33.3%

1.5%

RegressionWorse by 31.9 %pts
Road-750 Black, 48 (BK-R19B-48)910-1

-10.0%

-49.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 39.9 %pts
Road-750 Black, 52 (BK-R19B-52)13130

0.0%

-16.9%

ExponentialBetter by 16.9 %pts
Road-750 Black, 58 (BK-R19B-58)431

33.3%

29.4%

HoltWintersWorse by 4.0 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, L (SJ-0194-L)17143

21.4%

-6.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 15.5 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, M (SJ-0194-M)1112-1

-8.3%

17.1%

RegressionBetter by 8.8 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, S (SJ-0194-S)20511788

75.2%

18.4%

HoltWintersWorse by 56.8 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, XL (SJ-0194-X)220

0.0%

-60.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 60.4 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Black (HL-U509)1091

11.1%

18.7%

ExponentialBetter by 7.6 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Blue (HL-U509-B)1011-1

-9.1%

-4.6%

RegressionWorse by 4.5 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Red (HL-U509-R)1315-2

-13.3%

-24.5%

ExponentialBetter by 11.2 %pts
Taillights - Battery-Powered (LT-T990)990

0.0%

6.3%

ExponentialBetter by 6.3 %pts
Touring Front Wheel (FW-T905)550

0.0%

9.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 9.3 %pts
Touring Pedal (PD-T852)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Touring Rear Wheel (RW-T905)18715928

17.6%

-12.7%

HoltWintersWorse by 4.9 %pts
Touring Tire (TI-T723)1819-1

-5.3%

0.6%

RegressionWorse by 4.6 %pts
Touring Tire Tube (TT-T092)963

50.0%

154.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 104.7 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 46 (BK-T79U-46)1495

55.6%

92.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 36.5 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 50 (BK-T79U-50)770

0.0%

56.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 56.2 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 54 (BK-T79U-54)330

0.0%

4.8%

RegressionBetter by 4.8 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 60 (BK-T79U-60)955243

82.7%

96.9%

ExponentialBetter by 14.2 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T79Y-50)1073

42.9%

65.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 23.1 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T79Y-54)153164-11

-6.7%

-12.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 6.2 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 60 (BK-T79Y-60)1617-1

-5.9%

-5.8%

RegressionWorse by 0.0 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 46 (BK-T44U-46)1073

42.9%

31.0%

ExponentialWorse by 11.8 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 50 (BK-T44U-50)10100

0.0%

-17.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 17.6 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 54 (BK-T44U-54)1112-1

-8.3%

24.7%

RegressionBetter by 16.3 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 60 (BK-T44U-60)752

40.0%

73.9%

ExponentialBetter by 33.9 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 44 (BK-T18U-44)110

0.0%

-26.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 26.8 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 50 (BK-T18U-50)550

0.0%

-11.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 11.3 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 54 (BK-T18U-54)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Touring-3000 Blue, 58 (BK-T18U-58)880

0.0%

4.7%

ExponentialBetter by 4.7 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 62 (BK-T18U-62)550

0.0%

3.1%

RegressionBetter by 3.1 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 44 (BK-T18Y-44)1293

33.3%

14.4%

HoltWintersWorse by 18.9 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T18Y-50)21156

40.0%

21.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 18.4 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T18Y-54)19615640

25.6%

57.6%

ExponentialBetter by 32.0 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 58 (BK-T18Y-58)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Touring-3000 Yellow, 62 (BK-T18Y-62)11310112

11.9%

54.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 42.4 %pts
Touring-Panniers, Large (PA-T100)2792709

3.3%

-12.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 8.7 %pts
Water Bottle - 30 oz. (WB-H098)18171

5.9%

-33.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 27.1 %pts
Women's Mountain Shorts, L (SH-W890-L)13112

18.2%

-5.4%

ExponentialWorse by 12.8 %pts
Women's Mountain Shorts, M (SH-W890-M)550

0.0%

37.8%

RegressionBetter by 37.8 %pts
Women's Mountain Shorts, S (SH-W890-S)550

0.0%

-13.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 13.6 %pts
Women's Tights, L (TG-W091-L)12210517

16.2%

45.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 29.0 %pts
Women's Tights, M (TG-W091-M)21312687

69.0%

75.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 6.2 %pts
Total11,98011,5714093.5%1.3% Better in 215 out of 299 items (71.9%)
Weighted Average % Error13.1%Weighted Average % Error (Alt)12.1%Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)10.1%Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)5.3
Weighted Average % Error-Statistics19.8%Weighted Average % Error (Alt)-Statistics3.1%Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)-Statistics24.1%Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)-Statistics7.7

Specialty Bike Shop(GB) - Forecast in 4 - Aug
 ForecastActualVariancePercent ErrorStats Pct ErrorBest AlgorithmHuman vs. Statistics
All-Purpose Bike Stand (ST-1401)204261-57

-21.8%

-21.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 0.5 %pts
AWC Logo Cap (CA-1098)427251176

70.1%

87.6%

RegressionBetter by 17.5 %pts
Bike Wash - Dissolver (CL-9009)19181

5.6%

65.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 60.0 %pts
Cable Lock (LO-C100)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Chain (CH-0234)2930-1

-3.3%

-38.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 35.5 %pts
Classic Vest, L (VE-C304-L)89-1

-11.1%

-9.8%

HoltWintersWorse by 1.3 %pts
Classic Vest, M (VE-C304-M)2122-1

-4.5%

-24.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 20.0 %pts
Classic Vest, S (VE-C304-S)1293

33.3%

49.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 16.2 %pts
Fender Set - Mountain (FE-6654)89-1

-11.1%

-17.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 6.1 %pts
Front Brakes (FB-9873)23221

4.5%

-10.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 6.0 %pts
Front Derailleur (FD-2342)20155

33.3%

17.2%

ExponentialWorse by 16.1 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, L (GL-F110-L)288154134

87.0%

22.6%

RegressionWorse by 64.4 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, M (GL-F110-M)15141

7.1%

-6.0%

ExponentialWorse by 1.2 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, S (GL-F110-S)11110

0.0%

1.5%

ExponentialBetter by 1.5 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, L (GL-H102-L)1516-1

-6.3%

-0.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 6.0 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, M (GL-H102-M)315178137

77.0%

63.1%

RegressionWorse by 13.9 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, S (GL-H102-S)25520154

26.9%

-16.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 10.4 %pts
Headlights - Dual-Beam (LT-H902)190213-23

-10.8%

-16.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 5.9 %pts
Headlights - Weatherproof (LT-H903)11110

0.0%

1.6%

ExponentialBetter by 1.6 %pts
Hitch Rack - 4-Bike (RA-H123)23194

21.1%

16.0%

RegressionWorse by 5.0 %pts
HL Bottom Bracket (BB-9108)1718-1

-5.6%

-5.7%

RegressionBetter by 0.1 %pts
HL Crankset (CS-9183)1112-1

-8.3%

14.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 5.7 %pts
HL Fork (FK-9939)22193

15.8%

8.6%

RegressionWorse by 7.2 %pts
HL Headset (HS-3479)3639-3

-7.7%

-2.4%

RegressionWorse by 5.3 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M94B-38)330

0.0%

-33.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 33.3 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M94B-42)22220

0.0%

36.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 36.8 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M94B-44)1314-1

-7.1%

12.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 5.2 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 46 (FR-M94B-46)17152

13.3%

0.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 12.5 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M94B-48)1718-1

-5.6%

-36.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 31.2 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 38 (FR-M94S-38)21201

5.0%

-8.1%

RegressionBetter by 3.1 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M94S-42)18180

0.0%

14.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 14.9 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M94S-44)220

0.0%

33.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 33.6 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 46 (FR-M94S-46)880

0.0%

19.2%

ExponentialBetter by 19.2 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M94S-52)651

20.0%

20.0%

LY+YOY Growth%The same
HL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M928)1618-2

-11.1%

-17.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 6.5 %pts
HL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M918)30264

15.4%

25.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 9.8 %pts
HL Mountain Pedal (PD-M562)16160

0.0%

-29.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 29.3 %pts
HL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M928)33330

0.0%

1.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 1.3 %pts
HL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M940)13103

30.0%

38.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 8.6 %pts
HL Mountain Tire (TI-M823)770

0.0%

11.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 11.7 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R92B-44)27024822

8.9%

10.5%

RegressionBetter by 1.6 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R92B-48)336357-21

-5.9%

-9.1%

RegressionBetter by 3.2 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R92B-52)461518-57

-11.0%

-0.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 10.9 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R92B-58)14122

16.7%

16.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 0.7 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R92B-62)18153

20.0%

0.6%

HoltWintersWorse by 19.4 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R92R-44)25623818

7.6%

-48.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 41.0 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R92R-48)23212

9.5%

23.6%

RegressionBetter by 14.1 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R92R-52)770

0.0%

-22.7%

RegressionBetter by 22.7 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 56 (FR-R92R-56)10100

0.0%

-21.4%

ExponentialBetter by 21.4 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R92R-58)2425-1

-4.0%

-11.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 7.3 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R92R-62)23119140

20.9%

-13.9%

HoltWintersWorse by 7.1 %pts
HL Road Front Wheel (FW-R820)19190

0.0%

4.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 4.5 %pts
HL Road Handlebars (HB-R956)24204

20.0%

31.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 11.2 %pts
HL Road Pedal (PD-R853)1819-1

-5.3%

-23.9%

RegressionBetter by 18.6 %pts
HL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R820)21183

16.7%

-0.9%

RegressionWorse by 15.7 %pts
HL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R995)31301

3.3%

-4.0%

ExponentialBetter by 0.7 %pts
HL Road Tire (TI-R982)2125-4

-16.0%

-31.0%

RegressionBetter by 15.0 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 46 (FR-T98U-46)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T98U-50)2325-2

-8.0%

-12.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 4.9 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T98U-54)13130

0.0%

14.4%

RegressionBetter by 14.4 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 60 (FR-T98U-60)97114-17

-14.9%

-14.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 0.0 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 46 (FR-T98Y-46)270272-2

-0.7%

-15.5%

RegressionBetter by 14.7 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T98Y-50)330

0.0%

12.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 12.0 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T98Y-54)312336-24

-7.1%

-40.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 33.3 %pts
HL Touring Handlebars (HB-T928)330

0.0%

-0.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 0.4 %pts
HL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T924)10100

0.0%

-9.4%

ExponentialBetter by 9.4 %pts
Hydration Pack - 70 oz. (HY-1023-70)37352

5.7%

-10.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 4.8 %pts
LL Bottom Bracket (BB-7421)880

0.0%

26.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 26.7 %pts
LL Crankset (CS-4759)1192

22.2%

17.2%

HoltWintersWorse by 5.0 %pts
LL Fork (FK-1639)1394

44.4%

6.9%

HoltWintersWorse by 37.6 %pts
LL Headset (HS-0296)17170

0.0%

-16.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 16.5 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M21B-40)880

0.0%

-7.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 7.1 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M21B-42)440

0.0%

-7.7%

ExponentialBetter by 7.7 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M21B-44)30264

15.4%

15.2%

RegressionWorse by 0.2 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M21B-48)1718-1

-5.6%

2.2%

RegressionWorse by 3.3 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 52 (FR-M21B-52)16013921

15.1%

12.9%

RegressionWorse by 2.2 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 40 (FR-M21S-40)103120-17

-14.2%

-28.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 14.5 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M21S-44)37334429

8.4%

1.3%

RegressionWorse by 7.2 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M21S-48)16160

0.0%

-5.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 5.9 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 52 (FR-M21S-52)612717-105

-14.6%

-48.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 34.3 %pts
LL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M423)39372

5.4%

5.3%

HoltWintersWorse by 0.2 %pts
LL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M243)13121

8.3%

14.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 6.5 %pts
LL Mountain Pedal (PD-M282)1921-2

-9.5%

-24.1%

RegressionBetter by 14.6 %pts
LL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M423)14140

0.0%

6.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 6.1 %pts
LL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M236)660

0.0%

2.6%

ExponentialBetter by 2.6 %pts
LL Mountain Tire (TI-M267)3234-2

-5.9%

-21.7%

RegressionBetter by 15.8 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R38B-44)2124-3

-12.5%

-21.3%

ExponentialBetter by 8.8 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R38B-48)28271

3.7%

1.7%

HoltWintersWorse by 2.0 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R38B-52)18153

20.0%

65.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 45.3 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R38B-58)1213-1

-7.7%

-21.5%

RegressionBetter by 13.9 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 60 (FR-R38B-60)3536-1

-2.8%

-28.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 25.7 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R38B-62)24231

4.3%

32.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 28.5 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R38R-44)22321211

5.2%

-10.0%

ExponentialBetter by 4.8 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R38R-48)18171

5.9%

13.2%

ExponentialBetter by 7.3 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R38R-52)10100

0.0%

91.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 91.0 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R38R-58)23919940

20.1%

15.5%

RegressionWorse by 4.6 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R38R-60)193220-27

-12.3%

-6.3%

HoltWintersWorse by 6.0 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R38R-62)29290

0.0%

-15.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 15.0 %pts
LL Road Front Wheel (FW-R623)23221

4.5%

-2.5%

RegressionWorse by 2.0 %pts
LL Road Handlebars (HB-R504)330

0.0%

32.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 32.4 %pts
LL Road Pedal (PD-R347)1415-1

-6.7%

-20.0%

RegressionBetter by 13.4 %pts
LL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R623)19190

0.0%

6.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 6.8 %pts
LL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R581)21117536

20.6%

-6.6%

HoltWintersWorse by 14.0 %pts
LL Road Tire (TI-R092)1293

33.3%

14.8%

ExponentialWorse by 18.6 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 44 (FR-T67U-44)770

0.0%

3.2%

ExponentialBetter by 3.2 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T67U-50)36297

24.1%

11.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 12.9 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 58 (FR-T67U-58)981

12.5%

34.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 22.2 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 44 (FR-T67Y-44)2022-2

-9.1%

29.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 20.8 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T67Y-50)220

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T67Y-54)1028418

21.4%

35.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 14.0 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 58 (FR-T67Y-58)18171

5.9%

20.5%

ExponentialBetter by 14.6 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 62 (FR-T67Y-62)1091

11.1%

10.0%

RegressionWorse by 1.1 %pts
LL Touring Handlebars (HB-T721)880

0.0%

-7.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 7.4 %pts
LL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T312)1011-1

-9.1%

-29.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 20.7 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, L (LJ-0192-L)20191

5.3%

14.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 9.6 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, M (LJ-0192-M)17816117

10.6%

-8.9%

ExponentialWorse by 1.6 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, S (LJ-0192-S)23203

15.0%

11.7%

ExponentialWorse by 3.3 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, XL (LJ-0192-X)2426-2

-7.7%

-16.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 9.1 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, L (SB-M891-L)770

0.0%

-13.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 13.1 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, M (SB-M891-M)330

0.0%

17.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 17.1 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, S (SB-M891-S)29123853

22.3%

31.0%

ExponentialBetter by 8.7 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, L (SH-M897-L)10100

0.0%

8.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 8.3 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, M (SH-M897-M)31301

3.3%

3.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 0.1 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, S (SH-M897-S)32330221

7.0%

14.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 7.4 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, XL (SH-M897-X)10100

0.0%

-21.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 21.6 %pts
Minipump (PU-0452)17313934

24.5%

-40.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 15.7 %pts
ML Bottom Bracket (BB-8107)41347

20.6%

36.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 16.2 %pts
ML Crankset (CS-6583)20164

25.0%

31.7%

RegressionBetter by 6.7 %pts
ML Fork (FK-5136)28244

16.7%

68.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 51.8 %pts
ML Headset (HS-2451)550

0.0%

34.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 34.1 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M63B-38)1082

25.0%

-6.7%

HoltWintersWorse by 18.3 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M63B-40)660

0.0%

7.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 7.6 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M63B-44)2526-1

-3.8%

-2.6%

HoltWintersWorse by 1.3 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M63B-48)39437024

6.5%

-0.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 6.0 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 38 (FR-M63S-38)14140

0.0%

-8.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 8.3 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 40 (FR-M63S-40)770

0.0%

-13.2%

ExponentialBetter by 13.2 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 42 (FR-M63S-42)27234

17.4%

4.0%

HoltWintersWorse by 13.4 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 46 (FR-M63S-46)3235-3

-8.6%

-24.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 16.3 %pts
ML Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M762)1192

22.2%

-3.8%

HoltWintersWorse by 18.4 %pts
ML Mountain Handlebars (HB-M763)2829-1

-3.4%

5.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 1.7 %pts
ML Mountain Pedal (PD-M340)18162

12.5%

-40.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 28.3 %pts
ML Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M762)3538-3

-7.9%

-7.2%

HoltWintersWorse by 0.7 %pts
ML Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M798)25250

0.0%

10.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 10.5 %pts
ML Mountain Tire (TI-M602)254256-2

-0.8%

11.0%

ExponentialBetter by 10.3 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R72R-44)14140

0.0%

-17.3%

RegressionBetter by 17.3 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R72R-48)58526

11.5%

40.0%

RegressionBetter by 28.4 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R72R-52)428298130

43.6%

10.8%

ExponentialWorse by 32.8 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R72R-58)660

0.0%

-37.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 37.4 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R72R-60)220

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 38 (FR-R72Y-38)12120

0.0%

-2.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 2.5 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 42 (FR-R72Y-42)550

0.0%

17.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 17.0 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 44 (FR-R72Y-44)12111

9.1%

-16.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 7.6 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 48 (FR-R72Y-48)220

0.0%

34.9%

RegressionBetter by 34.9 %pts
ML Road Front Wheel (FW-R762)104112-8

-7.1%

-17.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 10.5 %pts
ML Road Handlebars (HB-R720)880

0.0%

-52.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 52.4 %pts
ML Road Pedal (PD-R563)124163-39

-23.9%

-7.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 16.6 %pts
ML Road Rear Wheel (RW-R762)1314-1

-7.1%

-4.1%

RegressionWorse by 3.0 %pts
ML Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R908)330

0.0%

-16.3%

RegressionBetter by 16.3 %pts
ML Road Tire (TI-R628)2425-1

-4.0%

6.2%

ExponentialBetter by 2.2 %pts
ML Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T762)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Mountain Bike Socks, L (SO-B909-L)1215-3

-20.0%

-53.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 33.3 %pts
Mountain Bike Socks, M (SO-B909-M)10100

0.0%

27.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 27.9 %pts
Mountain Bottle Cage (BC-M005)550

0.0%

20.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 20.0 %pts
Mountain Pump (PU-M044)15132

15.4%

29.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 14.1 %pts
Mountain Tire Tube (TT-M928)3133-2

-6.1%

-16.9%

ExponentialBetter by 10.9 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 38 (BK-M82B-38)12120

0.0%

10.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 10.2 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 42 (BK-M82B-42)38335825

7.0%

-19.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 13.0 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 44 (BK-M82B-44)440

0.0%

3.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 3.0 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 48 (BK-M82B-48)21192

10.5%

-14.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 3.6 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 38 (BK-M82S-38)15150

0.0%

27.6%

RegressionBetter by 27.6 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 42 (BK-M82S-42)13130

0.0%

8.5%

ExponentialBetter by 8.5 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 44 (BK-M82S-44)10100

0.0%

1.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 1.1 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 48 (BK-M82S-48)2527-2

-7.4%

-43.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 36.0 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 38 (BK-M68B-38)990

0.0%

-10.2%

RegressionBetter by 10.2 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 42 (BK-M68B-42)880

0.0%

-2.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 2.4 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 46 (BK-M68B-46)2224-2

-8.3%

-11.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 3.6 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 38 (BK-M68S-38)196259-63

-24.3%

-10.1%

ExponentialWorse by 14.2 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 42 (BK-M68S-42)1011-1

-9.1%

2.8%

RegressionWorse by 6.3 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 46 (BK-M68S-46)1011-1

-9.1%

20.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 11.1 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 38 (BK-M47B-38)13103

30.0%

43.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 13.2 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 40 (BK-M47B-40)462528-66

-12.5%

-17.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 5.2 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 44 (BK-M47B-44)12111

9.1%

14.9%

RegressionBetter by 5.8 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 48 (BK-M47B-48)190260-70

-26.9%

-23.7%

HoltWintersWorse by 3.2 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 38 (BK-M38S-38)550

0.0%

-8.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 8.1 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 40 (BK-M38S-40)2162088

3.8%

51.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 47.5 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 42 (BK-M38S-42)1091

11.1%

0.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 11.1 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 46 (BK-M38S-46)2324-1

-4.2%

-21.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 17.0 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 40 (BK-M18B-40)26523629

12.3%

12.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 0.4 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 42 (BK-M18B-42)1112-1

-8.3%

9.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 0.7 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 44 (BK-M18B-44)21118229

15.9%

-4.8%

HoltWintersWorse by 11.1 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 48 (BK-M18B-48)458280178

63.6%

41.4%

ExponentialWorse by 22.2 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 52 (BK-M18B-52)11110

0.0%

-12.8%

RegressionBetter by 12.8 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 40 (BK-M18S-40)1718-1

-5.6%

-32.0%

ExponentialBetter by 26.4 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 42 (BK-M18S-42)25123516

6.8%

9.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 2.6 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 44 (BK-M18S-44)398407-9

-2.2%

-6.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 4.1 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 48 (BK-M18S-48)2728-1

-3.6%

-14.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 11.2 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 52 (BK-M18S-52)22220

0.0%

25.7%

RegressionBetter by 25.7 %pts
Patch Kit/8 Patches (PK-7098)77770

0.0%

-19.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 19.1 %pts
Racing Socks, L (SO-R809-L)13103

30.0%

5.7%

HoltWintersWorse by 24.3 %pts
Racing Socks, M (SO-R809-M)22220

0.0%

-9.9%

RegressionBetter by 9.9 %pts
Rear Brakes (RB-9231)2829-1

-3.4%

-37.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 33.8 %pts
Rear Derailleur (RD-2308)77770

0.0%

-15.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 15.8 %pts
Road Bottle Cage (BC-R205)912-3

-25.0%

-30.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 5.1 %pts
Road Tire Tube (TT-R982)910-1

-10.0%

-34.9%

RegressionBetter by 24.9 %pts
Road-150 Red, 44 (BK-R93R-44)16151

6.7%

13.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 6.3 %pts
Road-150 Red, 48 (BK-R93R-48)910-1

-10.0%

-48.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 38.8 %pts
Road-150 Red, 52 (BK-R93R-52)23167

43.8%

58.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 15.0 %pts
Road-150 Red, 56 (BK-R93R-56)21147

50.0%

30.1%

RegressionWorse by 19.9 %pts
Road-150 Red, 62 (BK-R93R-62)22220

0.0%

10.4%

ExponentialBetter by 10.4 %pts
Road-250 Black, 44 (BK-R89B-44)381451-70

-15.5%

-42.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 27.0 %pts
Road-250 Black, 48 (BK-R89B-48)11101

10.0%

-13.7%

ExponentialBetter by 3.7 %pts
Road-250 Black, 52 (BK-R89B-52)2223-1

-4.3%

-28.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 23.9 %pts
Road-250 Black, 58 (BK-R89B-58)3637-1

-2.7%

-14.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 12.2 %pts
Road-250 Red, 44 (BK-R89R-44)25922930

13.1%

-18.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 5.0 %pts
Road-250 Red, 48 (BK-R89R-48)19313162

47.3%

27.4%

ExponentialWorse by 19.9 %pts
Road-250 Red, 52 (BK-R89R-52)13112

18.2%

30.7%

RegressionBetter by 12.5 %pts
Road-250 Red, 58 (BK-R89R-58)1113-2

-15.4%

-18.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 3.3 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R79Y-40)11110

0.0%

-12.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 12.0 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R79Y-42)990

0.0%

-4.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 4.8 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R79Y-44)23212

9.5%

14.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 4.8 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R79Y-48)17170

0.0%

8.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 8.6 %pts
Road-450 Red, 44 (BK-R68R-44)26242

8.3%

-4.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 3.9 %pts
Road-450 Red, 48 (BK-R68R-48)15913920

14.4%

50.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 36.2 %pts
Road-450 Red, 52 (BK-R68R-52)880

0.0%

-51.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 51.2 %pts
Road-450 Red, 58 (BK-R68R-58)35031931

9.7%

9.4%

ExponentialWorse by 0.3 %pts
Road-450 Red, 60 (BK-R68R-60)13112

18.2%

-5.1%

RegressionWorse by 13.1 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 38 (BK-R64Y-38)20200

0.0%

-13.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 13.8 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R64Y-40)19154

26.7%

35.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 8.6 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R64Y-42)431

33.3%

-15.6%

HoltWintersWorse by 17.8 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R64Y-44)24213

14.3%

7.7%

HoltWintersWorse by 6.6 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R64Y-48)14140

0.0%

20.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 20.9 %pts
Road-650 Black, 44 (BK-R50B-44)862

33.3%

58.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 25.6 %pts
Road-650 Black, 48 (BK-R50B-48)3335-2

-5.7%

-22.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 16.9 %pts
Road-650 Black, 52 (BK-R50B-52)17170

0.0%

-23.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 23.6 %pts
Road-650 Black, 58 (BK-R50B-58)17152

13.3%

3.8%

ExponentialWorse by 9.6 %pts
Road-650 Black, 60 (BK-R50B-60)1011-1

-9.1%

-29.0%

RegressionBetter by 19.9 %pts
Road-650 Black, 62 (BK-R50B-62)220

0.0%

27.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 27.4 %pts
Road-650 Red, 44 (BK-R50R-44)17116

54.5%

49.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 4.9 %pts
Road-650 Red, 48 (BK-R50R-48)10100

0.0%

44.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 44.4 %pts
Road-650 Red, 52 (BK-R50R-52)37234923

6.6%

-10.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 3.9 %pts
Road-650 Red, 58 (BK-R50R-58)36351

2.9%

0.4%

RegressionWorse by 2.4 %pts
Road-650 Red, 60 (BK-R50R-60)321

50.0%

20.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 30.0 %pts
Road-650 Red, 62 (BK-R50R-62)326366-40

-10.9%

-17.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 6.6 %pts
Road-750 Black, 44 (BK-R19B-44)11110

0.0%

-31.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 31.4 %pts
Road-750 Black, 48 (BK-R19B-48)18171

5.9%

11.8%

ExponentialBetter by 5.9 %pts
Road-750 Black, 52 (BK-R19B-52)29245

20.8%

-16.6%

HoltWintersWorse by 4.2 %pts
Road-750 Black, 58 (BK-R19B-58)16151

6.7%

27.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 20.4 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, L (SJ-0194-L)25241

4.2%

11.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 7.4 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, M (SJ-0194-M)16151

6.7%

-1.8%

HoltWintersWorse by 4.9 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, S (SJ-0194-S)40939910

2.5%

-3.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 0.6 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, XL (SJ-0194-X)2527-2

-7.4%

-23.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 16.1 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Black (HL-U509)14122

16.7%

-15.2%

ExponentialWorse by 1.4 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Blue (HL-U509-B)23230

0.0%

-10.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 10.5 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Red (HL-U509-R)4243-1

-2.3%

-7.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 5.1 %pts
Taillights - Battery-Powered (LT-T990)20200

0.0%

11.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 11.3 %pts
Touring Front Wheel (FW-T905)1293

33.3%

66.5%

RegressionBetter by 33.1 %pts
Touring Pedal (PD-T852)2223-1

-4.3%

11.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 7.6 %pts
Touring Rear Wheel (RW-T905)836320

31.7%

52.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 20.8 %pts
Touring Tire (TI-T723)110

0.0%

157.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 157.1 %pts
Touring Tire Tube (TT-T092)4142-1

-2.4%

-17.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 15.2 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 46 (BK-T79U-46)3436-2

-5.6%

-0.0%

HoltWintersWorse by 5.5 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 50 (BK-T79U-50)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Touring-1000 Blue, 54 (BK-T79U-54)15141

7.1%

0.0%

ExponentialWorse by 7.1 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 60 (BK-T79U-60)346418-72

-17.2%

8.2%

HoltWintersWorse by 9.0 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 46 (BK-T79Y-46)12111

9.1%

25.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 16.4 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T79Y-50)880

0.0%

-10.5%

ExponentialBetter by 10.5 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T79Y-54)17415222

14.5%

-54.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 39.9 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 60 (BK-T79Y-60)761

16.7%

16.3%

HoltWintersWorse by 0.4 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 46 (BK-T44U-46)36288

28.6%

46.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 17.9 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 50 (BK-T44U-50)20191

5.3%

-34.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 29.4 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 54 (BK-T44U-54)3536-1

-2.8%

-16.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 13.6 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 60 (BK-T44U-60)18171

5.9%

-19.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 14.0 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 44 (BK-T18U-44)25205

25.0%

33.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 8.2 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 50 (BK-T18U-50)78-1

-12.5%

-28.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 16.1 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 54 (BK-T18U-54)14140

0.0%

-7.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 7.6 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 58 (BK-T18U-58)15105

50.0%

40.9%

HoltWintersWorse by 9.1 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 62 (BK-T18U-62)10100

0.0%

-16.2%

RegressionBetter by 16.2 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 44 (BK-T18Y-44)204225-21

-9.3%

33.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 24.6 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T18Y-50)32826266

25.2%

39.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 14.5 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T18Y-54)48444

9.1%

21.7%

RegressionBetter by 12.6 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 58 (BK-T18Y-58)871

14.3%

32.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 18.1 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 62 (BK-T18Y-62)108137-29

-21.2%

-13.0%

HoltWintersWorse by 8.2 %pts
Touring-Panniers, Large (PA-T100)489517-28

-5.4%

-14.2%

RegressionBetter by 8.8 %pts
Water Bottle - 30 oz. (WB-H098)220

0.0%

-45.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 45.2 %pts
Women's Mountain Shorts, L (SH-W890-L)1923-4

-17.4%

-27.5%

RegressionBetter by 10.1 %pts
Women's Mountain Shorts, M (SH-W890-M)2831-3

-9.7%

-7.5%

HoltWintersWorse by 2.2 %pts
Women's Mountain Shorts, S (SH-W890-S)330

0.0%

-21.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 21.2 %pts
Women's Tights, L (TG-W091-L)28823553

22.6%

-43.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 20.8 %pts
Women's Tights, M (TG-W091-M)26424420

8.2%

-36.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 28.3 %pts
Women's Tights, S (TG-W091-S)220

0.0%

34.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 34.6 %pts
Total20,10219,1909124.8%-3.8% Better in 221 out of 299 items (73.9%)
Weighted Average % Error14.7%Weighted Average % Error (Alt)13.4%Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)10.4%Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)9.8
Weighted Average % Error-Statistics21.1%Weighted Average % Error (Alt)-Statistics4.2%Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)-Statistics20.2%Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)-Statistics13.5

Value Added Reseller(GB) - Forecast in 4 - Aug
 ForecastActualVariancePercent ErrorStats Pct ErrorBest AlgorithmHuman vs. Statistics
All-Purpose Bike Stand (ST-1401)734627

58.7%

51.4%

ExponentialWorse by 7.3 %pts
AWC Logo Cap (CA-1098)17815622

14.1%

43.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 29.3 %pts
Bike Wash - Dissolver (CL-9009)770

0.0%

0.0%

LY+YOY Growth%The same
Cable Lock (LO-C100)660

0.0%

23.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 23.8 %pts
Chain (CH-0234)110

0.0%

-100.0%

RegressionBetter by 100.0 %pts
Classic Vest, L (VE-C304-L)110

0.0%

-20.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 20.1 %pts
Classic Vest, M (VE-C304-M)1073

42.9%

41.4%

ExponentialWorse by 1.4 %pts
Classic Vest, S (VE-C304-S)17152

13.3%

1.5%

RegressionWorse by 11.8 %pts
Fender Set - Mountain (FE-6654)871

14.3%

14.3%

LY+YOY Growth%The same
Front Brakes (FB-9873)10100

0.0%

-28.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 28.3 %pts
Front Derailleur (FD-2342)110

0.0%

-24.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 24.0 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, L (GL-F110-L)194242-48

-19.8%

9.8%

RegressionWorse by 10.1 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, M (GL-F110-M)541

25.0%

-22.2%

HoltWintersWorse by 2.8 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, S (GL-F110-S)1921-2

-9.5%

-32.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 22.6 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, L (GL-H102-L)2123-2

-8.7%

-21.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 12.8 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, M (GL-H102-M)49472

4.3%

-8.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 3.8 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, S (GL-H102-S)11101

10.0%

-35.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 25.4 %pts
Headlights - Dual-Beam (LT-H902)231282-51

-18.1%

-47.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 29.4 %pts
Hitch Rack - 4-Bike (RA-H123)67-1

-14.3%

-24.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 10.2 %pts
HL Bottom Bracket (BB-9108)11110

0.0%

-22.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 22.5 %pts
HL Fork (FK-9939)880

0.0%

-29.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 29.9 %pts
HL Headset (HS-3479)440

0.0%

-10.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 10.9 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M94B-38)220

0.0%

5.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 5.9 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M94B-42)16133

23.1%

4.6%

RegressionWorse by 18.5 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M94B-44)220

0.0%

-34.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 34.6 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 46 (FR-M94B-46)220

0.0%

-40.9%

RegressionBetter by 40.9 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M94B-48)1617-1

-5.9%

-6.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 0.6 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 38 (FR-M94S-38)770

0.0%

30.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 30.2 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M94S-42)1073

42.9%

101.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 58.8 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M94S-44)19190

0.0%

-19.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 19.8 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 46 (FR-M94S-46)330

0.0%

5.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 5.9 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M94S-52)18126

50.0%

10.9%

RegressionWorse by 39.1 %pts
HL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M928)110

0.0%

-100.0%

RegressionBetter by 100.0 %pts
HL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M918)26233

13.0%

45.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 32.7 %pts
HL Mountain Pedal (PD-M562)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
HL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M940)1091

11.1%

26.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 15.1 %pts
HL Mountain Tire (TI-M823)16160

0.0%

-28.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 28.4 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R92B-44)18180

0.0%

-36.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 36.5 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R92B-48)32128734

11.8%

31.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 19.8 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R92B-52)23420826

12.5%

-38.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 26.4 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R92B-58)24240

0.0%

-9.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 9.7 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R92B-62)13130

0.0%

-5.7%

ExponentialBetter by 5.7 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R92R-44)625210

19.2%

10.6%

HoltWintersWorse by 8.6 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R92R-48)880

0.0%

44.8%

RegressionBetter by 44.8 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R92R-52)220

0.0%

-41.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 41.8 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 56 (FR-R92R-56)13130

0.0%

-47.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 47.5 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R92R-58)89-1

-11.1%

-13.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 2.0 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R92R-62)35350

0.0%

-6.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 6.6 %pts
HL Road Front Wheel (FW-R820)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
HL Road Handlebars (HB-R956)440

0.0%

25.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 25.0 %pts
HL Road Pedal (PD-R853)1215-3

-20.0%

-47.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 27.1 %pts
HL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R820)15141

7.1%

-12.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 5.6 %pts
HL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R995)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
HL Road Tire (TI-R982)770

0.0%

-10.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 10.6 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 46 (FR-T98U-46)20191

5.3%

22.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 16.8 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T98U-50)89-1

-11.1%

-23.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 12.1 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T98U-54)12111

9.1%

-1.7%

RegressionWorse by 7.3 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 60 (FR-T98U-60)33312

6.5%

0.9%

ExponentialWorse by 5.5 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 46 (FR-T98Y-46)1611556

3.9%

17.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 13.5 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T98Y-50)12120

0.0%

41.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 41.4 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T98Y-54)63603

5.0%

-36.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 31.8 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 60 (FR-T98Y-60)14140

0.0%

-9.5%

ExponentialBetter by 9.5 %pts
HL Touring Handlebars (HB-T928)220

0.0%

-50.0%

RegressionBetter by 50.0 %pts
HL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T924)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Hydration Pack - 70 oz. (HY-1023-70)2324-1

-4.2%

-2.7%

HoltWintersWorse by 1.5 %pts
LL Bottom Bracket (BB-7421)330

0.0%

11.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 11.5 %pts
LL Crankset (CS-4759)13112

18.2%

42.0%

ExponentialBetter by 23.8 %pts
LL Fork (FK-1639)880

0.0%

59.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 59.6 %pts
LL Headset (HS-0296)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M21B-40)2022-2

-9.1%

-22.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 12.9 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M21B-42)22193

15.8%

56.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 41.1 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M21B-44)330

0.0%

44.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 44.1 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M21B-48)12120

0.0%

27.1%

RegressionBetter by 27.1 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Black, 52 (FR-M21B-52)42366

16.7%

23.5%

ExponentialBetter by 6.8 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 40 (FR-M21S-40)292293-1

-0.3%

-21.1%

RegressionBetter by 20.8 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M21S-42)752

40.0%

36.1%

HoltWintersWorse by 3.9 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M21S-44)664818

37.5%

69.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 32.2 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M21S-48)440

0.0%

-2.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 2.0 %pts
LL Mountain Frame - Silver, 52 (FR-M21S-52)10100

0.0%

20.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 20.0 %pts
LL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M423)330

0.0%

11.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 11.2 %pts
LL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M243)550

0.0%

-20.0%

RegressionBetter by 20.0 %pts
LL Mountain Pedal (PD-M282)880

0.0%

-5.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 5.5 %pts
LL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M423)1183

37.5%

42.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 4.5 %pts
LL Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M236)14140

0.0%

8.6%

ExponentialBetter by 8.6 %pts
LL Mountain Tire (TI-M267)16133

23.1%

8.7%

ExponentialWorse by 14.4 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R38B-44)330

0.0%

24.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 24.3 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R38B-48)23194

21.1%

10.8%

HoltWintersWorse by 10.3 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R38B-52)10100

0.0%

6.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 6.0 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R38B-58)1011-1

-9.1%

-7.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 1.5 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 60 (FR-R38B-60)853

60.0%

61.0%

RegressionBetter by 1.0 %pts
LL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R38B-62)220

0.0%

6.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 6.2 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R38R-44)333359-26

-7.2%

-20.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 12.9 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R38R-48)541

25.0%

67.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 42.5 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R38R-52)12111

9.1%

-1.4%

HoltWintersWorse by 7.7 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R38R-58)193220-27

-12.3%

-9.2%

RegressionWorse by 3.1 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R38R-60)1293

33.3%

42.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 9.1 %pts
LL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R38R-62)770

0.0%

0.0%

LY+YOY Growth%The same
LL Road Front Wheel (FW-R623)13103

30.0%

77.5%

RegressionBetter by 47.5 %pts
LL Road Handlebars (HB-R504)770

0.0%

14.1%

RegressionBetter by 14.1 %pts
LL Road Pedal (PD-R347)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
LL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R623)110

0.0%

11.9%

RegressionBetter by 11.9 %pts
LL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R581)1018516

18.8%

20.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 1.3 %pts
LL Road Tire (TI-R092)220

0.0%

65.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 65.5 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 44 (FR-T67U-44)19145

35.7%

34.4%

ExponentialWorse by 1.3 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 50 (FR-T67U-50)12111

9.1%

12.7%

ExponentialBetter by 3.6 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T67U-54)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 58 (FR-T67U-58)330

0.0%

-22.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 22.7 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Blue, 62 (FR-T67U-62)1112-1

-8.3%

9.2%

RegressionBetter by 0.9 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 44 (FR-T67Y-44)110

0.0%

140.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 140.3 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T67Y-50)440

0.0%

0.0%

LY+YOY Growth%The same
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T67Y-54)26260

0.0%

5.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 5.8 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 58 (FR-T67Y-58)1617-1

-5.9%

11.3%

RegressionBetter by 5.4 %pts
LL Touring Frame - Yellow, 62 (FR-T67Y-62)330

0.0%

26.7%

RegressionBetter by 26.7 %pts
LL Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T312)440

0.0%

-12.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 12.8 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, L (LJ-0192-L)220

0.0%

3.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 3.8 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, M (LJ-0192-M)279177102

57.6%

79.9%

ExponentialBetter by 22.2 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, S (LJ-0192-S)19136

46.2%

36.5%

HoltWintersWorse by 9.7 %pts
Long-Sleeve Logo Jersey, XL (LJ-0192-X)1113-2

-15.4%

-13.1%

HoltWintersWorse by 2.2 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, L (SB-M891-L)770

0.0%

22.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 22.5 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, M (SB-M891-M)10100

0.0%

24.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 24.3 %pts
Men's Bib-Shorts, S (SB-M891-S)25118467

36.4%

39.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 3.1 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, L (SH-M897-L)15132

15.4%

23.6%

RegressionBetter by 8.2 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, M (SH-M897-M)14140

0.0%

12.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 12.1 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, S (SH-M897-S)4951-2

-3.9%

-14.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 10.9 %pts
Men's Sports Shorts, XL (SH-M897-X)220

0.0%

9.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 9.0 %pts
Minipump (PU-0452)27824236

14.9%

-31.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 16.2 %pts
ML Bottom Bracket (BB-8107)185199-14

-7.0%

-7.7%

ExponentialBetter by 0.7 %pts
ML Crankset (CS-6583)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
ML Fork (FK-5136)22193

15.8%

18.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 2.5 %pts
ML Headset (HS-2451)330

0.0%

-36.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 36.0 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M63B-38)110

0.0%

1.3%

RegressionBetter by 1.3 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 40 (FR-M63B-40)651

20.0%

86.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 66.8 %pts
ML Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M63B-48)19515342

27.5%

57.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 29.9 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 38 (FR-M63S-38)220

0.0%

-4.8%

ExponentialBetter by 4.8 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 40 (FR-M63S-40)220

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 42 (FR-M63S-42)440

0.0%

7.8%

ExponentialBetter by 7.8 %pts
ML Mountain Frame-W - Silver, 46 (FR-M63S-46)47470

0.0%

-4.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 4.1 %pts
ML Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M762)67-1

-14.3%

-40.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 26.6 %pts
ML Mountain Handlebars (HB-M763)89-1

-11.1%

-12.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 1.7 %pts
ML Mountain Pedal (PD-M340)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
ML Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M762)440

0.0%

39.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 39.3 %pts
ML Mountain Seat/Saddle (SE-M798)440

0.0%

-40.7%

ExponentialBetter by 40.7 %pts
ML Mountain Tire (TI-M602)2122-1

-4.5%

-19.4%

ExponentialBetter by 14.9 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R72R-44)13103

30.0%

54.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 24.2 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R72R-48)23212

9.5%

1.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 8.0 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R72R-52)99954

4.2%

10.4%

RegressionBetter by 6.2 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R72R-58)990

0.0%

-48.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 48.0 %pts
ML Road Frame - Red, 60 (FR-R72R-60)16115

45.5%

17.5%

HoltWintersWorse by 27.9 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 38 (FR-R72Y-38)651

20.0%

30.7%

ExponentialBetter by 10.7 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 40 (FR-R72Y-40)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 42 (FR-R72Y-42)28253

12.0%

-14.6%

RegressionBetter by 2.6 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 44 (FR-R72Y-44)220

0.0%

66.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 66.7 %pts
ML Road Frame-W - Yellow, 48 (FR-R72Y-48)11110

0.0%

-26.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 26.5 %pts
ML Road Front Wheel (FW-R762)4650-4

-8.0%

-35.0%

ExponentialBetter by 27.0 %pts
ML Road Handlebars (HB-R720)12120

0.0%

-13.0%

ExponentialBetter by 13.0 %pts
ML Road Pedal (PD-R563)230261-31

-11.9%

-24.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 13.0 %pts
ML Road Rear Wheel (RW-R762)770

0.0%

3.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 3.8 %pts
ML Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R908)12120

0.0%

-46.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 46.9 %pts
ML Road Tire (TI-R628)660

0.0%

5.9%

RegressionBetter by 5.9 %pts
ML Touring Seat/Saddle (SE-T762)2425-1

-4.0%

-13.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 9.7 %pts
Mountain Bike Socks, L (SO-B909-L)1718-1

-5.6%

-22.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 16.6 %pts
Mountain Bottle Cage (BC-M005)770

0.0%

-0.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 0.5 %pts
Mountain Pump (PU-M044)220

0.0%

52.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 52.3 %pts
Mountain Tire Tube (TT-M928)660

0.0%

7.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 7.0 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 38 (BK-M82B-38)110

0.0%

-100.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 100.0 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 42 (BK-M82B-42)240244-4

-1.6%

10.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 8.7 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 44 (BK-M82B-44)15132

15.4%

36.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 21.4 %pts
Mountain-100 Black, 48 (BK-M82B-48)1213-1

-7.7%

-5.7%

HoltWintersWorse by 2.0 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 38 (BK-M82S-38)2024-4

-16.7%

-30.0%

RegressionBetter by 13.3 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 42 (BK-M82S-42)13103

30.0%

33.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 3.1 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 44 (BK-M82S-44)330

0.0%

-37.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 37.8 %pts
Mountain-100 Silver, 48 (BK-M82S-48)660

0.0%

20.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 20.0 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 38 (BK-M68B-38)910-1

-10.0%

17.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 7.1 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 42 (BK-M68B-42)19163

18.8%

24.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 5.4 %pts
Mountain-200 Black, 46 (BK-M68B-46)330

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Mountain-200 Silver, 38 (BK-M68S-38)6467-3

-4.5%

-16.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 11.6 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 42 (BK-M68S-42)220

0.0%

-49.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 49.8 %pts
Mountain-200 Silver, 46 (BK-M68S-46)440

0.0%

74.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 74.0 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 38 (BK-M47B-38)12120

0.0%

4.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 4.7 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 40 (BK-M47B-40)2612574

1.6%

23.6%

RegressionBetter by 22.0 %pts
Mountain-300 Black, 44 (BK-M47B-44)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Mountain-300 Black, 48 (BK-M47B-48)440

0.0%

-4.8%

RegressionBetter by 4.8 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 38 (BK-M38S-38)330

0.0%

-22.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 22.7 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 40 (BK-M38S-40)20212280

65.6%

118.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 52.9 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 42 (BK-M38S-42)11110

0.0%

11.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 11.2 %pts
Mountain-400-W Silver, 46 (BK-M38S-46)1819-1

-5.3%

30.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 24.8 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 40 (BK-M18B-40)856421

32.8%

28.4%

ExponentialWorse by 4.4 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 42 (BK-M18B-42)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Mountain-500 Black, 44 (BK-M18B-44)17713839

28.3%

62.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 34.6 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 48 (BK-M18B-48)14313211

8.3%

21.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 13.0 %pts
Mountain-500 Black, 52 (BK-M18B-52)880

0.0%

8.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 8.7 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 40 (BK-M18S-40)1720-3

-15.0%

-2.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 12.6 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 42 (BK-M18S-42)254261-7

-2.7%

-16.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 14.1 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 44 (BK-M18S-44)15714314

9.8%

14.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 5.0 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 48 (BK-M18S-48)330

0.0%

4.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 4.8 %pts
Mountain-500 Silver, 52 (BK-M18S-52)10100

0.0%

-10.5%

RegressionBetter by 10.5 %pts
Patch Kit/8 Patches (PK-7098)19114546

31.7%

11.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 20.0 %pts
Racing Socks, L (SO-R809-L)330

0.0%

-0.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 0.2 %pts
Racing Socks, M (SO-R809-M)2526-1

-3.8%

12.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 8.5 %pts
Rear Brakes (RB-9231)440

0.0%

-13.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 13.0 %pts
Rear Derailleur (RD-2308)44337469

18.4%

-20.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 2.0 %pts
Road Bottle Cage (BC-R205)12120

0.0%

-34.6%

ExponentialBetter by 34.6 %pts
Road Tire Tube (TT-R982)220

0.0%

40.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 40.0 %pts
Road-150 Red, 44 (BK-R93R-44)220

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Road-150 Red, 48 (BK-R93R-48)431

33.3%

37.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 4.2 %pts
Road-150 Red, 52 (BK-R93R-52)12102

20.0%

48.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 28.2 %pts
Road-150 Red, 56 (BK-R93R-56)1314-1

-7.1%

25.5%

RegressionBetter by 18.3 %pts
Road-150 Red, 62 (BK-R93R-62)1213-1

-7.7%

-11.4%

RegressionBetter by 3.7 %pts
Road-250 Black, 44 (BK-R89B-44)33527857

20.5%

27.3%

RegressionBetter by 6.8 %pts
Road-250 Black, 48 (BK-R89B-48)4955-6

-10.9%

-13.9%

RegressionBetter by 3.0 %pts
Road-250 Black, 52 (BK-R89B-52)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Road-250 Black, 58 (BK-R89B-58)990

0.0%

-22.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 22.6 %pts
Road-250 Red, 44 (BK-R89R-44)14211032

29.1%

43.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 14.9 %pts
Road-250 Red, 48 (BK-R89R-48)70691

1.4%

-23.0%

RegressionBetter by 21.5 %pts
Road-250 Red, 52 (BK-R89R-52)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Road-250 Red, 58 (BK-R89R-58)19154

26.7%

18.0%

RegressionWorse by 8.7 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R79Y-40)10100

0.0%

24.3%

RegressionBetter by 24.3 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R79Y-44)27234

17.4%

18.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 0.8 %pts
Road-350-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R79Y-48)880

0.0%

14.7%

RegressionBetter by 14.7 %pts
Road-450 Red, 44 (BK-R68R-44)330

0.0%

-22.6%

ExponentialBetter by 22.6 %pts
Road-450 Red, 48 (BK-R68R-48)148177-29

-16.4%

28.3%

ExponentialBetter by 11.9 %pts
Road-450 Red, 52 (BK-R68R-52)330

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Road-450 Red, 58 (BK-R68R-58)220256-36

-14.1%

11.9%

ExponentialWorse by 2.1 %pts
Road-450 Red, 60 (BK-R68R-60)660

0.0%

-4.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 4.9 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 38 (BK-R64Y-38)13130

0.0%

8.6%

ExponentialBetter by 8.6 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 40 (BK-R64Y-40)11101

10.0%

30.6%

ExponentialBetter by 20.6 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 42 (BK-R64Y-42)220

0.0%

-18.7%

RegressionBetter by 18.7 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 44 (BK-R64Y-44)1394

44.4%

43.5%

ExponentialWorse by 1.0 %pts
Road-550-W Yellow, 48 (BK-R64Y-48)20173

17.6%

7.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 10.2 %pts
Road-650 Black, 44 (BK-R50B-44)1315-2

-13.3%

-33.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 19.9 %pts
Road-650 Black, 52 (BK-R50B-52)330

0.0%

-17.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 17.6 %pts
Road-650 Black, 58 (BK-R50B-58)910-1

-10.0%

8.2%

ExponentialWorse by 1.8 %pts
Road-650 Black, 60 (BK-R50B-60)110

0.0%

-10.9%

HoltWintersBetter by 10.9 %pts
Road-650 Black, 62 (BK-R50B-62)1183

37.5%

34.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 3.0 %pts
Road-650 Red, 44 (BK-R50R-44)110

0.0%

-24.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 24.4 %pts
Road-650 Red, 48 (BK-R50R-48)660

0.0%

19.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 19.7 %pts
Road-650 Red, 52 (BK-R50R-52)30246

25.0%

-8.9%

HoltWintersWorse by 16.1 %pts
Road-650 Red, 58 (BK-R50R-58)18171

5.9%

8.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 2.6 %pts
Road-650 Red, 60 (BK-R50R-60)13121

8.3%

-2.6%

HoltWintersWorse by 5.8 %pts
Road-650 Red, 62 (BK-R50R-62)329376-47

-12.5%

-15.8%

RegressionBetter by 3.3 %pts
Road-750 Black, 44 (BK-R19B-44)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Road-750 Black, 48 (BK-R19B-48)12111

9.1%

16.6%

ExponentialBetter by 7.5 %pts
Road-750 Black, 52 (BK-R19B-52)330

0.0%

-43.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 43.7 %pts
Road-750 Black, 58 (BK-R19B-58)743

75.0%

144.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 69.4 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, L (SJ-0194-L)220

0.0%

20.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 20.8 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, M (SJ-0194-M)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, S (SJ-0194-S)190191-1

-0.5%

-32.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 32.0 %pts
Short-Sleeve Classic Jersey, XL (SJ-0194-X)110

0.0%

69.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 69.8 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Black (HL-U509)440

0.0%

-26.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 26.5 %pts
Sport-100 Helmet, Blue (HL-U509-B)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Sport-100 Helmet, Red (HL-U509-R)990

0.0%

21.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 21.4 %pts
Touring Front Wheel (FW-T905)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Touring Pedal (PD-T852)1819-1

-5.3%

-4.9%

ExponentialWorse by 0.4 %pts
Touring Rear Wheel (RW-T905)291183108

59.0%

29.1%

HoltWintersWorse by 29.9 %pts
Touring Tire (TI-T723)660

0.0%

0.0%

LY+YOY Growth%The same
Touring Tire Tube (TT-T092)660

0.0%

4.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 4.4 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 46 (BK-T79U-46)220

0.0%

0.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 0.3 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 50 (BK-T79U-50)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Touring-1000 Blue, 54 (BK-T79U-54)1113-2

-15.4%

10.5%

HoltWintersWorse by 4.9 %pts
Touring-1000 Blue, 60 (BK-T79U-60)225226-1

-0.4%

-20.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 20.3 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 46 (BK-T79Y-46)1415-1

-6.7%

-24.6%

RegressionBetter by 17.9 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T79Y-50)1314-1

-7.1%

-3.7%

ExponentialWorse by 3.4 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T79Y-54)229285-56

-19.6%

-19.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 0.2 %pts
Touring-1000 Yellow, 60 (BK-T79Y-60)110

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Touring-2000 Blue, 46 (BK-T44U-46)110

0.0%

-100.0%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 100.0 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 50 (BK-T44U-50)220

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Touring-2000 Blue, 54 (BK-T44U-54)110

0.0%

6.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 6.7 %pts
Touring-2000 Blue, 60 (BK-T44U-60)1012-2

-16.7%

2.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 14.2 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 44 (BK-T18U-44)330

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Touring-3000 Blue, 50 (BK-T18U-50)880

0.0%

10.6%

RegressionBetter by 10.6 %pts
Touring-3000 Blue, 54 (BK-T18U-54)220

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Touring-3000 Blue, 62 (BK-T18U-62)16142

14.3%

23.1%

RegressionBetter by 8.8 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 44 (BK-T18Y-44)1099613

13.5%

2.7%

ExponentialWorse by 10.8 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 50 (BK-T18Y-50)28724542

17.1%

-36.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 19.0 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 54 (BK-T18Y-54)12410915

13.8%

19.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 6.0 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 58 (BK-T18Y-58)752

40.0%

27.3%

RegressionWorse by 12.7 %pts
Touring-3000 Yellow, 62 (BK-T18Y-62)615110

19.6%

9.0%

HoltWintersWorse by 10.6 %pts
Touring-Panniers, Large (PA-T100)240241-1

-0.4%

-21.0%

ExponentialBetter by 20.6 %pts
Water Bottle - 30 oz. (WB-H098)880

0.0%

-10.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 10.7 %pts
Women's Mountain Shorts, L (SH-W890-L)1293

33.3%

71.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 37.7 %pts
Women's Mountain Shorts, M (SH-W890-M)1091

11.1%

-20.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 9.1 %pts
Women's Mountain Shorts, S (SH-W890-S)110

0.0%

14.9%

ExponentialBetter by 14.9 %pts
Women's Tights, L (TG-W091-L)19915049

32.7%

1.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 31.0 %pts
Women's Tights, M (TG-W091-M)19514550

34.5%

59.9%

RegressionBetter by 25.4 %pts
Women's Tights, S (TG-W091-S)220

0.0%

0.0%

RegressionThe same
Total11,96811,1897797.0%3.3% Better in 221 out of 299 items (73.9%)
Weighted Average % Error14.9%Weighted Average % Error (Alt)13.4%Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)9.2%Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)5.8
Weighted Average % Error-Statistics25.8%Weighted Average % Error (Alt)-Statistics2.7%Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)-Statistics23.5%Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)-Statistics9.7

Warehouse(GB) - Forecast in 4 - Aug
 ForecastActualVariancePercent ErrorStats Pct ErrorBest AlgorithmHuman vs. Statistics
All-Purpose Bike Stand (ST-1401)53444391

20.5%

-1.3%

RegressionWorse by 19.2 %pts
AWC Logo Cap (CA-1098)492542-50

-9.2%

-10.0%

RegressionBetter by 0.8 %pts
Bike Wash - Dissolver (CL-9009)110

0.0%

-100.0%

RegressionBetter by 100.0 %pts
Cable Lock (LO-C100)1415-1

-6.7%

10.1%

HoltWintersBetter by 3.5 %pts
Chain (CH-0234)550

0.0%

29.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 29.7 %pts
Classic Vest, L (VE-C304-L)27261

3.8%

-22.7%

HoltWintersBetter by 18.8 %pts
Classic Vest, M (VE-C304-M)110

0.0%

9.4%

RegressionBetter by 9.4 %pts
Classic Vest, S (VE-C304-S)32257

28.0%

5.7%

ExponentialWorse by 22.3 %pts
Fender Set - Mountain (FE-6654)36306

20.0%

6.1%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 13.9 %pts
Front Brakes (FB-9873)660

0.0%

-13.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 13.5 %pts
Front Derailleur (FD-2342)1082

25.0%

37.6%

ExponentialBetter by 12.6 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, L (GL-F110-L)19411381

71.7%

42.0%

HoltWintersWorse by 29.7 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, M (GL-F110-M)330

0.0%

1.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 1.6 %pts
Full-Finger Gloves, S (GL-F110-S)24204

20.0%

19.0%

RegressionWorse by 1.0 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, L (GL-H102-L)14113

27.3%

29.9%

RegressionBetter by 2.6 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, M (GL-H102-M)32624086

35.8%

47.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 11.4 %pts
Half-Finger Gloves, S (GL-H102-S)16315310

6.5%

-42.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 35.5 %pts
Headlights - Dual-Beam (LT-H902)21215953

33.3%

16.3%

RegressionWorse by 17.0 %pts
Headlights - Weatherproof (LT-H903)31301

3.3%

29.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 26.4 %pts
Hitch Rack - 4-Bike (RA-H123)3335-2

-5.7%

-25.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 19.6 %pts
HL Bottom Bracket (BB-9108)14113

27.3%

61.8%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 34.6 %pts
HL Crankset (CS-9183)34322

6.3%

-5.5%

HoltWintersWorse by 0.8 %pts
HL Fork (FK-9939)12111

9.1%

-23.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 14.7 %pts
HL Headset (HS-3479)2425-1

-4.0%

3.6%

RegressionWorse by 0.4 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 38 (FR-M94B-38)880

0.0%

-37.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 37.6 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 42 (FR-M94B-42)1192

22.2%

-7.7%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 14.5 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 44 (FR-M94B-44)33330

0.0%

-7.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 7.5 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 46 (FR-M94B-46)38317

22.6%

5.2%

HoltWintersWorse by 17.3 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Black, 48 (FR-M94B-48)15132

15.4%

11.2%

RegressionWorse by 4.2 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 38 (FR-M94S-38)32266

23.1%

28.8%

ExponentialBetter by 5.8 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 42 (FR-M94S-42)21165

31.3%

60.6%

HoltWintersBetter by 29.4 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 44 (FR-M94S-44)27252

8.0%

-0.8%

ExponentialWorse by 7.2 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 46 (FR-M94S-46)1416-2

-12.5%

12.0%

HoltWintersWorse by 0.5 %pts
HL Mountain Frame - Silver, 48 (FR-M94S-52)1082

25.0%

81.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 56.0 %pts
HL Mountain Front Wheel (FW-M928)19172

11.8%

14.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 2.2 %pts
HL Mountain Handlebars (HB-M918)15150

0.0%

-11.3%

HoltWintersBetter by 11.3 %pts
HL Mountain Pedal (PD-M562)13121

8.3%

-5.7%

HoltWintersWorse by 2.7 %pts
HL Mountain Rear Wheel (RW-M928)22175

29.4%

98.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 69.0 %pts
HL Mountain Tire (TI-M823)440

0.0%

-6.0%

RegressionBetter by 6.0 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 44 (FR-R92B-44)30329112

4.1%

22.8%

HoltWintersBetter by 18.7 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 48 (FR-R92B-48)8397-14

-14.4%

-9.2%

HoltWintersWorse by 5.2 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 52 (FR-R92B-52)50500

0.0%

-11.5%

HoltWintersBetter by 11.5 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 58 (FR-R92B-58)990

0.0%

14.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 14.5 %pts
HL Road Frame - Black, 62 (FR-R92B-62)16160

0.0%

-23.2%

HoltWintersBetter by 23.2 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 44 (FR-R92R-44)40939217

4.3%

34.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 30.1 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 48 (FR-R92R-48)1293

33.3%

15.0%

RegressionWorse by 18.3 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 52 (FR-R92R-52)27234

17.4%

-13.4%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 4.0 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 56 (FR-R92R-56)981

12.5%

8.9%

HoltWintersWorse by 3.6 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 58 (FR-R92R-58)26251

4.0%

-18.0%

HoltWintersBetter by 14.0 %pts
HL Road Frame - Red, 62 (FR-R92R-62)22815672

46.2%

46.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 0.1 %pts
HL Road Front Wheel (FW-R820)23221

4.5%

6.4%

HoltWintersBetter by 1.8 %pts
HL Road Handlebars (HB-R956)2325-2

-8.0%

16.0%

RegressionBetter by 8.0 %pts
HL Road Pedal (PD-R853)11101

10.0%

60.2%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 50.2 %pts
HL Road Rear Wheel (RW-R820)1314-1

-7.1%

-13.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 6.5 %pts
HL Road Seat/Saddle (SE-R995)1516-1

-6.3%

-5.4%

HoltWintersWorse by 0.8 %pts
HL Road Tire (TI-R982)31310

0.0%

0.9%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 0.9 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 46 (FR-T98U-46)23230

0.0%

0.5%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 0.5 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 54 (FR-T98U-54)651

20.0%

3.3%

LY+YOY Growth%Worse by 16.7 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Blue, 60 (FR-T98U-60)20919613

6.6%

11.1%

RegressionBetter by 4.5 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 46 (FR-T98Y-46)259296-37

-12.5%

-29.0%

RegressionBetter by 16.5 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 50 (FR-T98Y-50)34340

0.0%

1.6%

LY+YOY Growth%Better by 1.6 %pts
HL Touring Frame - Yellow, 54 (FR-T98Y-54)277281-4